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NBN: The hunt for “silver bullets” and
“killer apps”i.e. it’s now about tools for apps & use, stupid.
University of New England
16 November 2011
Gordon Bell
Principal Researcher
Microsoft Research, Silicon Valley Laboratory
Observation, bias, and challenge
1. NBN is: Cloud Services as the Silver Bullets. It’s: “Continuous Services” for “Cloud Connected Devices”.
2. “The Cloud” will drive the NBN
3. Poster apps e.g. energy grid, education & health are Application, content, data rights limited… look elsewhere
4. NBN requires new ventures and new usesIt’s now up to engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs
5. NBN success should or will be judged by new ventures… and their payoff
Cloud Computing:Services &
Content
Mobile Clients
Fixed Clients & Client Nets
NBN
Television Content
NBN: fiber/wireless net connecting mobile and fixed clients to a cloud computing infrastructure for applications & content
Computer person’s view of NBN:“Continuous Services i.e. apps & Client Connected Devices”
Mobile ClientsConnected Devices
Fixed Clients & Client Nets
NBN
Television Content
Cloud Computing:Services &
Content
Outline• NBN from computing perspective: It’s the cloud• The Internet was built for Research… got the Web!• The Cloud” is the next computer class…Bell’s Law
– The Internet of Things (& Phones) create the demand– Science apps are critical: 4th paradigm– Engineering apps pay the bills:CSIRO Tasmanian sensor net– Health: is a cloud app … some day– Entrepreneur's & Services. Surveillance, lifelogging, etc.
• Tele-x. Sarnoff’s, Metcalfe’s (Vail’s), & Reed’s Laws e.g. face2facebook. Tele-”n”-vision for sports, health
Colin Griffin UNE9/2011
Ed Feigenbaum, Stanford Faculty Campus.Fiber to the home
A tale of two approaches• NBN US: Massive study re. competition & plan.
Result: Let the market build it.• NBN Oz: Minimal study & plan.
Result: Just do it.
Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…
10
Recalling 1995: First Internet World Keynote… 1,000 attendees
Prediction of post www with fiber.The worlds of TV, telecom, and data collide
11
Net History: Story of Serendipity ARPAnet c1970 goals:
• rlogin; load-, program-, and data-sharing… cost-motivated
Got: • rlogin (remote login)• mail plus as a service carrier....• bbs/news/chat/muds/moos • ftp (file transfer protocol) and • rpc enabled distributed computing
12
Broad-cast
Cable
PBX
VCRCDs>97
LECsTV
LongDist.
LECsDBS
TheInternet
clients/servers
LANs
Pvt.WANs
Cablephone
CableI’net
LANPBX
I’netPhone
GamesWire-less
Wire-less
Television world Telephony
world
Datacom world
The Colliding Worlds of TV, Telephony & Datacom a.k.a. Computing & Internet
ITV?
RADIO
WHAT ABOUT TV AS AGGREGATIONS OF CHANNELS?
HOW MUCH AGGREGATION IS NEEDED?Cable provides:
TV on demand, internet &
POTS
AT&T provides: POTS, wireless,
DSL..., & TV tbd
13
Video & Convergence…Finally90% traffic is video; Neflix 30%, YouTube 20, Bittorent$1000 Bet: Nat Barrie asserts that by January 2013, the
majority of video will come via computer versus conventional TV Broadcast channels that include cable e.g. Foxtel digital and over-the-air channels.
Computer channels include all the video content that is store and forward, on demand e.g. ABC on line, Hulu, Netflix, YouTube via all the digital IP streams e.g. WiFi, Cable Modems, ADSL, NBN fiber.
14
The TV “cable bundle” in your hand…
The Cloud is a New Computer Class
• “The Cloud” comes in various sizes, shapes, and ownership and rental models
• It is so important that nearly all research has to be “cloud washed”
Bell’s Law of Computer Classes… Where we are goingEvery Decade a new class emerges and some die
• Every decade a new, lower (1/10th) cost class of computers emerge to cover cyberspace with a– New computing platform– New Interface to humans or something in physical world, “stuff”– New networking and/or interconnect structure
• New classes new apps new industries• The classes… a decade in price every decade
– ‘60s $millions mainframes (central)– ‘70s $10K-100K minis– ‘80s $10K workstations and PCs (personal)– ‘90s $1K The Internet PCs– ‘00s $100s Smartphones & the “cloud” Services … XaaS– ‘10s $10 “the cloud” & small clients (central & person)
“The Internet of Things”, WSNs, sensors– ?? ? In body, implantable everything.– ??? ? “the singularity” computers > human
Cloud Computing c2010 … XaaS
ATSE Cloud Computing. Sept. 2010R1 The Commonwealth Government should …ensure a supportive regulatory environment.
R2 The Commonwealth Government’s Commercialisation …should actively encourage new businesses that are cloud-focused at internet-scale applications.R3 The Commonwealth Department of Broadband Communications …to ensure that unnecessary impediments to the uptake of Cloud Computing are minimised.
R4 Australian universities should expand … to build knowledge and skills in cloud computing. R5 The Commonwealth Government should create and fund an Australian equivalent of the NSF’s Cluster Exploratory Program and the NSF-Microsoft Program to actively encourage cloud computing.R6 The National Research Infrastructure Council (NRIC) should refine its investment plans to reflect the benefits that cloud computing can provide.R7 The Commonwealth Government should ensure that proposals for research data storage using Super Science funds have evaluated cloud computing services.
ATSE Cloud Computing Report
September 2010(find the NBN in
this picture)
The Internet of Things= Smart World… devices for health, energy, science, etc.
• Things: appliances, platforms, peripherals, WSNs,… phones that have been evolving for decades
• Anything, Anytime, Anywhere, Anyway, Always Applications:– Mostly mobile phones, the foreseeable future– scientific sensors for transforming science– networks monitoring and control—water, traffic,
power, health/wellness, earth science, … smart(x)
.net gadgeteerMicrosoft Gadgeteer
Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…
Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…
Smartphones are today’ personal mainframesFunctions integrated into cell phones aka Smart Phones aka small form factor devices aka handheld computersTV
eBookGeoVector
eBook, TVPointing anywhere*
BodyMedia Health monitoriPod Multimedia player
Windows Mobile Smartphone & PC with appsWeb Browsing WWW.
BlackBerry EmailPocketPC Programmable platform -PC with apps
Rio & Music svc Digital Audio PlayerImaging Camera addition
GPS service GPS service AvailabilityPalm PDA FunctionalitySMS SMS Service
Cellular net US mobile phones licensed (AMPS)Gameboyhandheld games
1979 1983 1992 1995 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 20022002 2002 2003 2007 2010Notes: Increasing bandwidth protocols e.g. GSM, service generations enabler not shown
Audio recording, video capture, videophone, and mobile TV not shown*GPS: location lat, long, alt. 3 axis compass; 6 axis accel.
Complete, 1 mm3 Systems--mote
MicroProcBatterySolar cellXmitterSensor5.3 nW
Science and Engineering Apps…
• The Fourth Paradigm of scientific discovery• Science and Engineering are both real time
– Science closed loop is o(years to decades)– Engineering is for sensing and immediate control
Sensing…
REAL WORLD System
Sensors*
Observations by human operators
*Sensor/effector may be people
Sharing of dataTo effect change
Plain old closed loop control
Real time Control (ideal sans noise)
REAL WORLD System
Model of REAL WORLD
System
Sensors*
Effectors*
Advice (t+1)
Controller(Processing,
policies & people)
*Sensor/effector may be people
Four Science Paradigms1. Thousand years ago: science was empirical
describing natural phenomena2. Last few hundred years:
theoretical branch using models, generalizations3. Last few decades:
a computational branch simulating phenomena4. Today: data exploration branch (eScience)
unify theory, experiment, and simulation – Data captured by instruments or simulation– Processed by software– Information/Knowledge stored in computer for enquiry– Scientist analyzes database / files
using data management and statistics– Data lives & is accessed forever
2
22.
3
4
a
cG
a
a
Jim Gray NRC-CSTB
Synthesizing Imagery, Sensors, Models and Field Data
NASA MODIS imagery archives5 TB (600K files)
FLUXNET curated
field dataset2 KB (1 file)
Sizes given are 1 US year20 US year ~ 1 global land surface year NCEP/NCAR ~100MB
(4K files)
Vegetative clumping~5MB (1file)
Climate classification~1MB (1file)
FLUXNET Curated sensor 30GB dataset
(960 files)
Continental USGlobal Scale Reprojection
Global Scale Reduction
Archive Download
ModisAzure By the numbers….• 22 months• 2 CS interns; 1 architect; 1
science intern; 1 senior scientist; 3 hangers-on
• 522 K cpu hours• 14 TB upload• 10 TB max storage• 5 TB download• 2.3 B storage operations
• 1.3 M re-projected tiles• 25 M reduction files• (TBD) VM
scaleup/scaledown operations
• (TBD) Lines of (nonMatLab) code
• $79K external billing
Courtesy Catharine van Ingen
First eScience Lab enabled by
cloud computingSeed funding from -- minerals and geothermal research at www.pir.sa.gov.au-- Microsoft Research USA Jim Gray Seed Grant-- MSR Azure funding 433,000 hours-- Institute for Minerals and Energy
35
Geology and Geophysics
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
Collaborative Cloud Computing Lab (C3L)
School of Computer Science
Prof Graham Heinson Prof J Craig Mudge
NBN for remote access to compute and historical data
Collaborative Cloud Computing Lab (C3L)
Vision: A geologist guiding a drill, using real-time sensing of the sub-surface geology, and updating geological models, while referring to her cloud-based data sets and collaborating with her team back home
drilling machine control system
Geologistin field
Sensing – a dozen or more sensorsSeismicXRFResistivityetc
Sub-surface
guiding
Collaboration
Dataand geologist’sdata integrations.Seismic, Satellite,MT, Petrophysical, Cores, Density, etc.
ComputeModelling on-DemandMT Inversion Seismic Inversion. Joint Inversion. Visualisation.
Magnetotelluric (MT) imaging1. Using the magnetic and electric fields
of the earth, MT imaging determines the resistivity structure of a sub-surface area of interest.
2. It goes deeper (hundred or so Km) than seismic (<2 Km) but does not have the same resolution
3. Applications1. mineral exploration, 2. water management in mining, 3. geothermal exploration, 4. carbon storage, 5. aquifer research and management6. earthquake and volcano studies.(Heinson and Mudge, 2010)
37
A platform technology
Massive parallel processing - peak demand
- interactive control-field deployment
Parallel programming models are at• Program level
– Express data parallelism in MapReduce/Hadoop/DryadLINQ
• Job level– Workflow languages define concurrent execution Restructuring of MT processing steps and pulling all parameter inputs to the
start, results in parallel processing of station data, and better workflow
• Ultimately field deployment at many sites
The South Esk Hydrological Sensor Web: Next-Generation Catchment Management
Andrew TerhorstTasmanian ICT Centre (Hobart WSM real time) award winner
9 September 2011
Water for a Healthy Country
Integrating sensor data from multiple agenciesCreating a services infrastructure “bottom up”
2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT
Project goal
Develop a prototype water information system made up of two linked sub-systems:
• Continuous flow forecast system - Based on emerging
Sensor Web standards
• Provenance management system - Provides information on
how flow forecasts are produced
2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT
2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT
Physical Sensors, Observation Archives
Sensor Web
Numerical Models
SemanticBroker
Decision Support
Tools
Sensor Layer
Services Layer
Application Layer
Paradigm shift
The “killer app”… Health!—my favoritedear to my heart
Sensors with IP On Everything
Cloud service, =1 million mammograms*• Cost of store Amazon $US 0.125 / GB-month
– $1.50 / GB-year; $0.15 / 100 MB-year (person)– $150,000 per million person-years– Cost of long term storage will decline
• Access is fully distributed, including– Digital X-ray capture stations (2 min. upload/download)– Reading stations can be anywhere,
including computers and services in the cloud– Legacy X-ray digitization as needed
• Secondary, yet principal benefit: analytics based on age, wt., location, …
• * Proposed at AEHR Conference 31 March 2009
Azure
HealthVault
Imaging data flow
Web-based Image viewer
Enterprise to providerEnterprise to patientEnterprise to enterprisePatient to provider (2nd opinion) Enterprise backup
ScenariosImages captured within theenterprise are safely and cost-effectively stored in the Cloud – where they can be referenced in multiple use cases and monetized on an ongoing basis
MICROSOFT CLOUD storage
HealthVault - image metadata, blog catalog and access keyring
Azure - binary image data (original DICOM images, presentation state, compressed pre-views
Images are harvested by either Amalga-Embedded or full UIS
Web-based Image viewerWeb-based Image viewer
1
2
3
4
5
-UIS -Embedded
Health continuous sensing devices
BodyMedia Output
c2002
HR, weight, BP, distance,
Fitbit … Pedometer
Smartphones are becoming “the” Personal Healthcare Platform--Mainframe
Where was I,what was I doing,who was I with,(what meeting)when I had a high HR or high stress indicator ?
When will health adopt the cloud?• Health is all about friction* and preserving it• Many other NON NBN, NON Technology factors
e.g. privacy, standards, proprietary interfaces, n-opolies, guilds aka silos, vocabularies,…
• Cloud service is inevitable for EHR<>Physician• *People doing the same old thing, the same old
way that creates social stability at rising cost
Health Monitoring:“Your husband just died, … here’s his black box”
Entrepreneurs… unbounded opportunity
• Sensr.net• //deepvue.com• Cyclists: communication, performance,
etc.
NBN … what about network costs?Courtesy of OrionVM a high speed cloud service
Transit Networking Costs c2011Australia - Price per Mbps = $90-140 p/m (Vocus/Soul)
US - Price per Mbps = $1 p/m (HE.net)
Datacentre Power Costs c2011Australia - 15A @ 240V Usable = $1540 p/m (Vocus DC)
US - 30A @ 120V Usable = $900 p/m (Hurricane Electric)
$30/GB to university researchers limits & eliminates research
MyLifeBits: Recording Everything!
• Bell/Gemmell project 1999-2007
• Record, store, and recall everything in a person’s life
• Total Recall aka Your Life Uploaded
• Narcissistic or essential
Extreme Lifelogging: Recording Everything c2000 on PCs; c2010 in the cloud via phones
• In 1945 Vannevar Bush described a scientist's memex to store books, records and communication… an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory." By 2010, we demonstrated most aspects of complete lifelogging to capture much of a person's lifetime information.
• Lifelogging is enabled by: information capture (e.g. cameras, computers, GPS devices, medical devices, scanners, smart phones); terabyte storage; and ability to retrieve and utilize the information.
• The degree of lifelogging will be determined by: laws and privacy conventions e.g. recording conversations and demonstrated utility.
• By using lifelogs, social scientists will be able to gain unlimited behavioral understanding. In the distance, lifelogs provide the basis for a limited kind of immortality.
Capturing every step
http://deepvue.com
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/deepvue/id402406102?mt=8
Sensr.net…why cameras need to be in cloud!
Tele-x a canonical app to absorb bandwidth that is hardly usedvs.
Tele-vision made interactive or multiple access sporting events
Telepresence: Being there, while being here, and at some other time. Time & space shifting.
Tele-presentations, tele-conferencing, videophone, tele-robotics, VR, tele-learning
Technology transitionsTechnology transitions
Cisco Telepresence System 3200: $340,000 ’08Interoperates with Cisco
Technology transitionsTechnology transitions
Technology transitionsTechnology transitions
InTouch Health Robot for tele-doctor patient visiting…
“presence” of patient records is the hard part! c2004
Technology transitionsTechnology transitions. . . To boldly go where no doctor has gone before. Courtesy Wetzel, UCLA
Technology transitionsTechnology transitions
Summary… 2020: It’s the apps, stupid!
1. NBN is: Cloud Services. It’s Not: fiber. It’s: “Continuous Services for Cloud Connected Devices”.
2. Poster apps e.g. energy grid, education & health are not fiber limited! Application, content, data rights respectively are the limits
3. Scientific apps are challenging4. Engineering apps will be profitable5. NBN success should/will be judged by new ventures…