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Navigating Uncharted WatersFriday, April 3rd 12pm CDT
Altair Advisers
3
Speakers
Jason M. Laurie, CFA, CFP®Managing Director & CIO
Altair Advisers
David J. Lin, CFADirector of Investment Research
Altair Advisers
4
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Morningstar, Altair Advisers
Selected Market Returns
Markets March(%)
Year to date(%)
iShares Core S&P 500 (large cap) -12.2 -19.6
iShares Russell 2000 (small cap) -21.5 -30.7
iShares MSCI EAFE (international) -14.1 -23.0
Vanguard REIT Index Fund (real estate) -19.3 -24.1
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (taxable) -1.4 2.2
Market Vectors Sh/Inter Muni ETF (municipal) -3.5 -1.7As of March 31, 2020
Record-Speed 30% Drop5
373369
361354
271250
145142
136126
6863
3831
242322
Jan-11-1973Mar-24-2000Nov-29-1968Nov-07-1940Mar-10-1937Oct-09-2007Nov-09-1938Oct-25-1939Jan-04-2002Apr-10-1930Feb-24-1931Jun-26-1931Aug-25-1987Sep-16-1929Nov-09-1931Feb-06-1934Feb-19-2020
Trading Days to S&P 500 30% Drawdown
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Bloomberg, Altair Advisers
Beginning Date of Drawdown
Economic Data Has Yet to Catch Up6
Lead
ing
Eco
nom
ic In
dex
Leve
l (2
016
= 10
0)
January 2018 – February 2020
107
108
109
110
111
112
113Ja
n-18
Feb-
18M
ar-1
8A
pr-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-18
Jul-1
8A
ug-1
8S
ep-1
8O
ct-1
8N
ov-1
8D
ec-1
8Ja
n-19
Feb-
19M
ar-1
9A
pr-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
n-19
Jul-1
9A
ug-1
9S
ep-1
9O
ct-1
9N
ov-1
9D
ec-1
9Ja
n-20
Feb-
20
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: The Conference Board, Altair Advisers
Best to Worst in Record Time7
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Initi
al C
laim
s fo
r Une
mpl
oym
entI
nsur
ance
(m
illio
ns)
February – March 2020
Previous high during global financial crisis (665k)
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Altair Advisers
8
Timely Stimulus
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Congressional Budget Office, JP Morgan, St. Louis Federal Reserve, Altair Advisers
FiscalAmount (in billions)
One-time stimulus checks amounting to $1,200 per adult and $500 per child with
income limits$290
Enhanced, expanded, and extended unemployment benefits$260
Loans to distressed entities including $454 billion as a backstop for loans to businesses,
cities, and states$510
Small business relief, largely in the form of “forgivable loans”$377
Direct aid to state and municipal governments$150
Health-related spending$180
Other spending and tax breaks$516
Totals approximately 11% of GDP$2,283
Monetary
Mon
th-o
ver-m
onth
cha
nge
in F
eder
al R
eser
ve A
sset
s(b
illion
s)
$(200)
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Jan-
18M
ar-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
l-18
Sep
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19M
ar-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
l-19
Sep
-19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20M
ar-2
0
As of March 25, 2020
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Questions We Are Hearing From Clients
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Performance Following Bear Markets
See disclosures at end of document. Sources: Morningstar, BlackRock, Altair Advisers
One Year Return After Bear Market
Asset Class12/25/18
to12/24/19
3/10/09to
3/9/10
10/10/02to
10/9/03
9/1/98to
8/31/99
10/12/92to
10/11/93
12/5/87to
12/4/88
8/13/82to
8/12/84
AverageReturn
US Stocks 39.9% 72.3% 36.2% 39.8% 17.8% 22.5% 59.3% 41.1%US Small Cap Stocks 34.4% 97.9% 61.6% 28.4% 37.7% 36.7% 99.1% 56.5%International Stocks 22.8% 75.7% 39.4% 25.7% 26.4% 31.3% 32.0% 36.2%EM Stocks 19.5% 107.7% 59.7% - - - - 62.3%US Taxable Bonds 8.9% 9.3% 4.2% 0.8% 11.5% 9.2% 21.9% 9.4%Municipal Bonds 7.6% 10.9% 2.8% 0.5% 12.7% 10.6% 25.8% 10.1%
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Questions We Are Hearing From Clients
Structured for Longevity…
• Founded in 2002• Employee-owned• Approximately $5 billion in assets under advisement• Private and independent
Nationally Recognized...
• Barron’s Top 100 Independent Advisors• Forbes Best in State Wealth Advisors• Financial Advisor Top 100 RIAs• Crain’s Chicago Business Best Places to Work• Financial Times Top 300 RIAs
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10.22 9a
© 2020 Altair Advisers LLC
The material shown is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and all investments are subject to the risk of loss. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. As a practical matter, no entity is able to accurately and consistently predict future market activities. Information presented herein may incorporate Altair Advisers' opinions as of the date of this publication, is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. While efforts are made to ensure information contained herein is accurate, Altair Advisers cannot guarantee the accuracy of all such information presented. Material contained in this publication should not be construed as accounting, legal, or tax advice.
ETFs selected by Altair are intended to approximate performance of respective asset class in lieu of an established index. Altair has no relationship with the ETFs selected.
Any reference to recognitions, awards, accolades or rankings (collectively, “recognitions”) issued by unaffiliated parties or publications should not be construed as an: 1) endorsement by or on behalf of any client; or 2) assurance that any current or prospective client will receive a certain level of service from Altair. These recognitions are determined by the organization sponsoring the recognition, and are generally based upon information provided by Altair to the sponsoring organization, which typically does not audit such information. As a matter of policy, Altair does not compensate the sponsoring organization for such recognitions.
© 2020 Altair Advisers LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Disclosures13