Navajo Unit Operations January 22, 2008 Coordination Meeting€¦ · MOLAS LAKE 10500 15.7 11.1 141 15.8 11.8 134 MINERAL CREEK 10040 11.1 8.2 135 14.3 10 143 CASCADE #2 8920 11.3

Navajo Unit Operations January 22, 2008

Coordination Meeting

Agenda

•Welcome•Review 2007 Operations •Current Forecast and Proposed 2008 Operations•Recommendations for San Juan River

Administration and Operation•Navajo Dam Maintenance Activities•Fish & Wildlife Service/San Juan RIP Update•Reports from other Agencies•Questions from Audience•How To Access Information•Close

Review of 2007

Operations

San Juan Basin 1 Multiple Station Snotel Plot

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (in

ches

)

avg 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

SNOTEL SITES

BEARTOWN CASCADE NO 2 SNOTEL CHAMITA COLUMBUS BASIN SNOTEL CUMBRES TRESTLE LILY POND MINERAL CREEK MOLAS LAKE RED MOUNTAIN PASS SPUD MOUNTAIN UPPER SAN JUAN VALLECITO

August 10, 2007

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (NWS)Navajo Reservoir April-July Modified Unregulated Inflow Forecast (af)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Actual

Forecast Date

Apr

il-Ju

ly F

orec

ast (

af)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%140%150%

Perc

ent o

f Ave

rage

Max Most Min 30-Yr Average

Year 2007 Navajo Res InflowsMonth Inflow (af) % of AverageJanuary 21,441 105%February 30,768 105%

March 104,384 121%April 87,061 58%May 200,171 90%June 154,363 77%July 46,398 58%

August 58,874 96%September 40,552 77%

October 56,731 124%November 17,230 55%December 40,149 173%

Total 858,122 85%Apr-Jul 487,993 75%

Aug-Dec 213,536 99%

2007 NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONSInflow, Release, NIIP Div, WS Elev

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007

Dai

ly In

flow

, Rel

ease

and

NIIP

Div

(c

fs)

5985

5995

6005

6015

6025

6035

6045

6055

6065

6075

6085

Wat

er S

urfa

ce E

leva

tion

(feet

)

NIIP (cfs) Releases (cfs) Inflow (cfs) WS Elev

San Juan RiverUSGS Daily Streamflow 2007

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000


2007

Mea

n D

aily

Str

eam

flow

(cfs

)

Archuleta Farmington Shiprock Four Corners Bluff Animas@Farmington


with 7-Day Moving Mean

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000


2007

Mea

n D

aily

Str

eam

flow

(cfs

)

Archuleta Farmington Shiprock Four Corners Bluff Animas@Farmington 7DMM


with 7-Day Moving Mean and Target Base Flow

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000


2007

Mea

n D

aily

Str

eam

flow

(cfs

)

Target Base Flow Archuleta 7DMM

Current Forecast and

Proposed Operationsfor 2008

Basin Elev

Site Name (ft) Current Average Pct of Current Average Pct of

(in) (in) Avg (in) (in) Avg

BEARTOWN 11600 16.2 13.1 124 17.7 14.7 120

MIDDLE CREEK 11250 15.6 10.6 147 20.6 13.7 150

STUMP LAKES 11200 14.2 10.9 130 13.8 12.2 113

LILY POND 11000 12.9 8.1 159 16.5 11.7 141

WOLF CREEK SUMMIT 11000 27.4 17.2 159 29.3 18.5 158

VALLECITO 10880 14.7 10.5 140 14 11.4 123

UPPER SAN JUAN 10200 28.6 15.9 180 28.4 18.5 154

CUMBRES TRESTLE 10040 24.4 13.3 183 23.7 13.8 172

CHAMITA 8400 9.5 5.2 183 12.6 8.5 148

BEARTOWN 11600 16.2 13.1 124 17.7 14.7 120

RED MOUNTAIN PASS 11200 17.6 12.4 142 19.5 14.3 136

STUMP LAKES 11200 14.2 10.9 130 13.8 12.2 113

COLUMBUS BASIN 10785 18.4 12.8 144 20.1 18.2 110

SPUD MOUNTAIN 10660 21 15.6 135 23.1 17 136

MOLAS LAKE 10500 15.7 11.1 141 15.8 11.8 134

MINERAL CREEK 10040 11.1 8.2 135 14.3 10 143

CASCADE #2 8920 11.3 7.7 147 15.9 11.8 135

CASCADE 8880 13.3 7.2 185 16.3 11.6 141

Snow Water Equivalent Year-to-Date Precipitation

Colorado River Basin SNOTEL Snow/Precipitation Update ReportBased on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

**Provisional data, subject to revision**

Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00) for Thursday, January 17, 2008

ANIMAS RIVER BASIN

Basin-wide percent of average 140 129

SAN JUAN RIVER HEADWATERS

Basin-wide percent of average 156 144

NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast CenterSan Juan Basin Multiple Station Snotel Plot

Current Snowpack is (18.2/12) = 152% of Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Sno

w W

ater

Equ

ival

ent (

inch

es)

79-2007 Avg 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

SNOTEL SITES

BEARTOWN CASCADE NO 2 SNOTEL CHAMITA COLUMBUS BASIN SNOTEL CUMBRES TRESTLE LILY POND MINERAL CREEK MOLAS LAKE RED MOUNTAIN PASS SPUD MOUNTAIN UPPER SAN JUAN VALLECITO WOLF CREEK SUMMIT

January 17, 2008

CBRFC - Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum Modified Unregulated Inflow Forecasts (ac-ft)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Jan MidJan

Forecast Date

Apr

-Jul

Out

look

Max Most Min 30-Yr Avg

January 15th 2008Navajo Reservoir Unregulated April-

July Inflow Forecast

Inflow (af) % of Average

Most Probable 1,030,000 133%

Minimum Probable 635,000 82%Maximum Probable 1,560,000 202%

Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum ProbableInflows based on the January Mid Month Forecast

0

50,000

100,000150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000400,000

450,000

500,000*O

CT0

7

*NO

V07

*DEC

07

JAN

08

FEB0

8

MAR

08

APR

08

MAY

08

JUN

08

JUL0

8

AUG

08

SEP0

8

Inflo

w (a

f)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

2008 Spring Release Decision Tree Values Based on the January Mid Month Forecast for the Most, Minimum and Maximum Probable Inflows

Most Probable

Minimum Probable

Maximum Probable

1 *Available Water (acre-feet): 1,049,000 608,000 1,464,000

2 **Spill (acre-feet): 348,000 (93,000) 763,000

3 Fish Releases:2005 344,000 (acre-feet)2006 140,000 (acre-feet)2007 233,000 (acre-feet)

4 Was there a perturbation? Yes

5 Spring Release Volume (acre-feet) (above the base flow) 340,000 112,000 340,000

where:

where:

Flow Chart Parameters

* Available Water = Predicted Inflow + Available Storage -NIIP Diversions - EVAP - Base ReleaseAvailable Storage = End of March Storage - Minimum Carryover Storage (1,000,000 af)

** Spill = Predicted inflow - NIIP Diversions - Base Release - EVAP - Remaining Storage

Remaining Storage = Maximum Content (Elev 6082) - End of March Content(Set to zero if computed value goes negative)

1

5

14

4

1312

10

9

11

8

3

27

6

AVAILABLE WATER PATH

Min Prob: 608,000 af #2

Most Prob: 1,049,000 af #6

Max Prob: 1,464,000 af #6

Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Elevation based on the MidJan Minimum Probable Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2008

Rel

ease

& S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

End-

Of-M

onth

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)

Total Navajo Release Min Allowable Release Std #1 Fish Release Hydrograph EOM WS Elevation

Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Elevation based on the MidJan Maximum Probable Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2008

Rel

ease

(cfs

)

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

EOM

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)


Most Probable Inflow Forecast

Alternative Release Options

Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Elevation based on the Jan Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2008

Rel

ease

& S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

End-

Of-M

onth

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)


Option #1: Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month Contents Based on the Mid January Most Probable Forecast.

Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Elevation based on the Feb Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2008

Rel

ease

& S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

End-

Of-M

onth

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)


Option #2: Navajo Reservoir Daily Release and End-Of-Month Content based on the Mid January Inflow Forecast

Navajo Reservoir Daily Releases and End-Of-Month WS Elevation based on the MidJan Most Probable Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500


2008

Rel

ease

& S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

6030

6035

6040

6045

6050

6055

6060

6065

6070

6075

6080

6085

End-

Of-M

onth

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)


Option #3: Navajo Reservoir Daily Release and End-Of-Month Content based on the Mid January Inflow Forecast

Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum ProbableReleases based on the January Mid Month Forecast

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000*O

CT0

7

*NO

V07

*DEC

07

JAN

08

FEB0

8

MAR

08

APR

08

MAY

08

JUN

08

JUL0

8

AUG

08

SEP0

8

Rel

ease

s (a

f)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob

Option #3

Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum ProbableContent (af) based on the January Mid Month Forecast

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

*OC

T07

*NO

V07

*DEC

07

JAN

08

FEB0

8

MAR

08

APR

08

MAY

08

JUN

08

JUL0

8

AUG

08

SEP0

8

Con

tent

(af)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most ProbMax Prob Max Min

Option #3

Navajo Reservoir Most, Maximum and Minimum ProbableEOM Water Surface Elevation (feet) based on the January Mid Month Forecast

5,985

5,995

6,005

6,015

6,025

6,035

6,045

6,055

6,065

6,075

6,085

6,095

*OCT07 *NOV07 *DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JUL08 AUG08 SEP08

EOM

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)

5,985

5,995

6,005

6,015

6,025

6,035

6,045

6,055

6,065

6,075

6,085

6,095

EOM

WS

Elev

atio

n (fe

et)

30-Yr Avg Min Prob Most Prob Max Prob Max Min

Option #3

Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operating PlanMost Probable Inflow - January 15th Forecast

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Rel

ease

s (N

egat

ive

af)

&

In

flow

(af)

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

End

of M

onth

Con

tent

s (a

f)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div (af) Content (af) Max Content Min Content

Option #3 Release

Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operating Plan Miminum Probable Inflow - January 15th Forecast

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Rel

ease

s (N

egat

ive

af)

&

I

nflo

w (a

f)

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

End

Of M

onth

Con

tent

(af)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div Content (af) Max Content Min Content

Navajo Reservoir - 2008 WY - Annual Operating PlanMaximum Probable Inflow - January 15th Forecast

-400,000

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000


Rel

ease

s (N

egat

ive

af)

&

Inf

low

(af)

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

End

Of M

onth

Con

tent

(af)

Inflow (af) Release (af) NIIP Div (af) Content (af) Max Content Min Content

April-July Mod Unreg Forecast from Mid Januaryvs

Realized Mod Unreg Inflow

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

Apr

il-Ju

ly M

od U

nreg

Inflo

w

Minimum Probable Most Probable Maximum ProbableSeries4 Mod Unreg Inflow 30-Yr Average

2008 Recommendations for San Juan River

Operation and Administration

Navajo Dam Maintenance Activities

Fish & Wildlife Service

San Juan RIP Update

Reports from other Agencies

Questions from Audience

How You Can Access Information

USBR www.usbr.gov/uc

USGS http://water.usgs.gov/nwis

Summary• Forecasts are Very Preliminary.• Likely Minimum Release:

– 750 cfs Oct 2006 - May 2008– 500 cfs Jun 2008 – September 2008

• Target Baseflow will be 500 -1000 cfs• A Modified Maximum Fish Spring Release

is expected. (21+ Days at 5,000 cfs)

• Next Operations Meeting: April ?, 2008

Thanks for Coming

Documents

Navajo Unit Operations January 22, 2008 Coordination Meeting€¦ · MOLAS LAKE 10500 15.7 11.1 141 15.8 11.8 134 MINERAL CREEK 10040 11.1 8.2 135 14.3 10 143 CASCADE #2 8920 11.3