NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA WITH …• Disasters of cosmic origin (collision with a meteor, asteroid, solar storm, cosmic radiation) ... destruction was great and

Географски разгледи (50) 53-69 (2017) Geographical Reviews

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UDK: 550.34(497.711)"2016"

NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE IN SKOPJE IN 2016

Ivica MILEVSKI

Institute of Geography, Faculty of Science, Skopje

e-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

According to the recent and historical records, the territory of the Republic of Macedonia is at risk

from various natural hazards. That is because the country has such geographical features that favour

frequent occurrence of number of natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, torrents, landslides, rockfalls,

avalanches, droughts, heat (and cold) waves etc. In the summer of 2016, a large flash flood occured in

the Skopje region causing 23 deaths and huge damage. Only a month later, the city was hit by a

moderate earthquake (the latter fortunately without major consequences). Actually, in the last decade,

numerous landslides and rockfalls were recorded around the country, then frequent fires, heat waves,

floods etc. Numerous scenarios, analyzes and trends show that the frequency of natural disasters will

increase in the following years and decades. Accordingly, as all other natural factors, particularly

landscape configuration, geology, soils, etc., appropriate preventive measures should be designed,

dimensioned and conducted aiming not only at protection against floods, but also against landslides,

excessive erosion, fires, the consequences of earthquakes and other hazards.

Key words: geohazards, natural-hazards, natural disasters, Republic of Macedonia

INTRODUCTION

Natural hazards are events or occurrences of natural character, which have a negative

effect on people. If there are no adverse effects on humans, they are only natural phenomena.

If the natural hazards cause extremely negative and tragic consequences for the people

(damages, injuries, casualties and so on), they are called natural disasters (Bryant, 2005).

In the Macedonian “Law on Protection and Rescue” (Official Gazette No. 93/12) the

following definition is provided: "Natural disasters" are events caused by uncontrolled action of

natural forces that threaten the lives and health of people and animals and cause damage to

property, cultural heritage and environment (earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, drifts,

storms, collapse of dams and embankments, droughts, rain and other hazards).

I. Milevski

Natural hazards in the Republic of Macedonia with special emphasis on flood and earthquake in Skopje in 2016

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The consequences of natural disasters are globally very large and tend to rise. Thus,

between 2003 and 2013, disasters triggered by natural hazards caused USD 1.5 trillion in

economic damage worldwide. In developing countries alone, these disasters cost about USD

550 billion in estimated damage and affected 2 billion people. Such disasters often undermine

the national economic growth and development goals, as well as agriculture sector growth and

sustainable sector development (FAO, 2015).

Figure 1: Number of disasters triggered by natural hazards and the costs from 1980 to 2014

(According to EM-DAT CRED). Graphical display of dramatic global increase

of natural disasters, especially those related to climate change.

The Republic of Macedonia has such geographical features that favour frequent occurrence

of some natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, torrents, landslides, rockfalls, avalanches,

droughts, heat (and cold) waves etc. Until a few decades ago, these hazards were considered

typically natural or caused only by natural processes. However, lately it has been realized that

humans have a greater direct or indirect impact on the occurrence and the frequency of

disasters mentioned (except somewhat earthquakes and the hazards from space as asteroid

impact), and in particular on the risks and consequences that may arise from certain disaster.

Therefore, in today's world the terms "anthropogenic natural disasters" and "anthropo-hazards"

are becoming more common in the scientific community (Dragičević et al., 2010).

Major factors affecting the vulnerability of the Republic of Macedonia in regards to natural

disasters are: geotectonic conditions (location near collision of two major continental plates:

Eurasian and African), significant dissection and slope of relief (mean slope of 15.4°), large

temperature variations (-31.5 to 45.7°C), amount and regime of precipitation, the distribution

and density of vegetation, as well as population growth in the region impacting the natural


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environment. Often, the impact of humans is direct (cutting and burning of forests, incisions in

unstable slopes, interventions along riverbeds, etc.), or indirect with global pressures through

anthropogenic-initiated climate change (Dragićević et al., 2010) increases also.

TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

The natural hazards that occur in the Republic of Macedonia can be classified according to

various criteria: the size of affected area-spatial scale, place of occurrence, frequency, speed,

magnitude (strength) and others. According to the spatial scale, natural disasters can be of

local, regional, national or, on in rare cases, of a wider scope. Depending on the place of

occurrence of the hazards, they can be domicile (within the borders of the country) and the

disasters that have occurred in the neighbouring and even distant regions-countries but have

an impact in Macedonia (eg. earthquakes in neighbouring countries, floods in watersheds of

Pčinja in Serbia or Lepenec in Kosovo etc.). According to the frequency, the hazards may be

very common (every year or on 2-3 years), relatively frequent (once every 5-20 years),

relatively rare (once every 20-50 years), rare (once every 50-100 years) and very rare (once

over 100 years). According to the severity, intensity or volume, the hazards can be of light,

medium, large and very large magnitude (power). The frequency is usually correlated with the

spatial scope and severity (intensity) of the disaster. Thus, disasters with small-scale and

strength, can occur frequently while with catastrophic or cataclysmic strength to be very rare

(on several hundred years). Most of the natural disasters in the Republic of Macedonia usually

occur abruptly and quickly (within minutes or hours), but there are those that develop in days,

weeks and months: droughts, desertification and others (Blinkov, 2008).

Depending on the cause of the occurrence, the following 4 groups of natural disasters

appear and can be expected in the Republic of Macedonia: geohazards, atmospheric hazards,

hydrological hazards, biohazards and other natural disasters.

Geohazards are:

• Earthquakes (rarely)

• Landslides, rockslides and other mass-movements (very often)

• Severe erosion and deposition of sediments (often)

• Near volcanic eruptions (very rare)

Atmospheric-hydrological hazards:

• Floods (rivers, torrential, groundwater, lake) (relatively common)

• Extreme precipitation (relatively rare)

• Drought (relatively common)

• Heat waves (relatively common)

• Extreme cold and snow events (relatively rare)

• Avalanches (relatively common)

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• Strong winds (relatively rare)

• Hailstorms, thunder (relatively common).

Biohazards:

• Forest fires (very often)

• Epidemics (relatively rare)

• Infestation of insects and other organisms (relatively rare),

• Sharply penetration of aggressive non-autochthons species (relatively rare).

Other natural disasters:

• Disasters of cosmic origin (collision with a meteor, asteroid, solar storm, cosmic radiation) (very rare)

• Chemical event-nuclear disasters caused by natural disasters (earthquake, tsunami, volcanoes) (rare).

REVIEW OF THE WORST NATURAL DISASTERS ON THE TERRITORY OF

MACEDONIA IN THE LAST 100 YEARS

In the past, numerous natural hazards in the Republic of Macedonia have occurred, some

of which have received the classification of natural disasters. Our data on these events are

limited to the natural disasters that occurred only in the last one-hundred years. Thus, it is

assumed that one of the biggest disasters was Pehchevo-Kresna earthquake in April 1904,

with a magnitude of 7.5-7.8. However, this event is very poorly documented, although accor-

ding to various sources of data, destruction was great and felt throughout the central and

southern parts of the Balkan Peninsula. Even less information are available on historical

earthquakes and floods in the Skopje Basin, but also for other parts of Macedonia.

The size of a natural hazard (disaster) can be assessed from several aspects: the size of

destruction, magnitude of the phenomenon, damages caused, casualties, change and

destruction of the landscape, etc. For most of these elements it is difficult to get real data,

especially in terms of economic damages, which can be direct, indirect, long-lasting,

subjectively assessed and so on. For some events, it is difficult to determine even the number

of casualties (such as the earthquake in Valandovo in 1931). However, according to all

available sources of information, a list of the worst natural hazards or natural disasters can be

made according to three criteria (Milevski, 2016).

According to the number of registered or estimated victims, the biggest natural disasters

in the region of Macedonia in the past 100 years:

• Skopje earthquake of July 26, 1963, with 1,070 killed and 4,000 wounded;

• Valandovsko earthquake of March 11, 1931 with about 15-200 deaths and many hundreds injured (large differences in information from only a few to more than 300 victims);


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• Avalanche, landslide in the valley of Radika of February 11, 1956 with 52 deaths;

• Torrential flood in Skopje from August 6, 2016 with 23 deaths;

• Landslide in Kavadarci on September 5, 1956, with 11 deaths;

• Lightning in Berovo on August 29, 1996, with 9 deaths and 50 injured;

• Debar earthquake on November 30, 1967, 6 deaths;

• Torrential flood in Sipkovica, August 3, 2015, with 5 deaths;

• Heat wave in July and August 2007 * (according to various data, either directly or in conjunction with high temperatures killed tens of people).

Figure 2: Some of the worst natural disasters in the country in the last 100 years.

According to available information and estimates, the number of "direct" victims of natural

disasters in the Republic of Macedonia in the last 100 years is between 1300 and 1500

(including smaller phenomenon of torrential floods, storms, earthquakes, etc.). Indirectly (heat

waves, weather extremes, low temperatures, etc.), the number is significantly higher.

Size - the magnitude and scope of the occurrence of natural disasters:

• Valandovo earthquake of March 11, 1931 (6.8M, felt in the southern part of the Balkan Peninsula);

• Skopje earthquake of July 26, 1963 (6.1M, shallow hypocenter, felt throughout northern and central Macedonia and southern Serbia and Kosovo);

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• The flood of November, 1979 (upper watershed of the Vardar with Pena, Lepenec and Pchinja River);

• The flood of 1962 (upper and central part of the Vardar watershed);

• The flood of August 23, 1929 (upper watershed of the Vardar with Pena, Lepenec, Pchinja);

• The heatwave of August 2007 (with record temperatures in almost all cities, warmest recorded wave since instrumental measurements in Macedonia);

• While it is beyond the set time frame, probably the strongest earthquake in this area is the earthquake of April 4, 1904 with hypocenter between Pehchevo and Kresna (7.8 Richter), which was felt almost throughout the entire Balkans, and there were casualties even in Thessalonica, Vranje and other places (source: news journal Politika, Beograd, archive).

According to the estimated or fixed damages (estimates and information from various

sources in today's value):

• Skopje earthquake of July 26, 1963 ($2-5 billion);

• The flood in 1962 ($100-300 million);

• Torrent flood in Skopje from August 6, 2016 ($50-100 million);

• Floods in November, 1979 ($50-80 million);

• Valandovsko earthquake of March 11, 1931 ($30-75 million);

• Floods in late winter and early spring of 2010 ($30-60 million);

• The flood of August 23, 1929 in the upper basin of Vardar Pena, Lepenec Pchinja (about $40-70 million);

• The heat wave in the summer of 2007, along with forest fires ($50-75 million, just damage from wildfires was around $30 million).

It should be mentioned that the extensive damage from droughts in 1985, 1990, 1993,

2000, 2007 amounted to tens of US millions. Also, direct and indirect damage from excessive

erosion has occurred in several parts of the country. All of the previous information from the

last 100 years shows that the direct damage from natural disasters is estimated at around US

8-10 billions, while indirect damage places that estimate several times higher (Milevski, 2016a).

According to forecasts and analysis by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the

number of natural disasters and damages in the country will grow. This is especially true of the

hazards related to climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves, forest fires, landslides,

rockslides and others. The latest analysis shows that on the one hand the average maximum

temperature and temperature variations tend to rise, and on the other hand rainfall becomes

extremely sporadic.

FLASH FLOOD IN THE SKOPJE REGION FROM 6/08/2016

In the evening of August 6, 2016, between 6 and 10 pm, the City of Skopje and the general

area northeast of it became affected by strong storms, followed by intense rainfall, frequent

electrical discharges (about 800-1000 lightning strikes) and strong wind (up to 80 km/h)


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(Milevski, 2016b). In a short time, a relatively small area received between 60 and 100 mm of

rainfall, which caused unexpected catastrophic consequences, such as:

• 23 official deaths and numerous injuries, physical and mental trauma, fear;

• Many flooded houses, destroyed properties, vehicles, machinery; and

• Estimated damage of about 100 million euros (direct, indirect, short-term and long-term).

Figure 3: The flood of August 6, 2016 caused significant casualties and huge material damage.

Causes for flooding

The flood in Skopje from 6/08/2016, had the character of a torrential flooding in the

northeastern part of the area (where the victims and damages were the largest) and urban

flooding in central urban areas. In this sense, the causes can be divided into natural and

anthropogenic that is directly or indirectly influenced by humans.

Natural causes:

• Intense torrential rainfall (90-100 mm/4 hours);

• From 8 to 9 pm intensity was around 1 mm/min;

• Concentration of rain on a small area (4 x 5 km), mainly northern part of Skopje toward Skopska Crna Gora Mountain (SCG);

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• Configuration of the terrain (SCG mountain as a barrier, with steep slopes towards the SW side, topographic depression between the foot of the SCG, and the villages of Radišani, Stajkovci and Čento);

Anthropogenic causes:

• Significant deforestation of SCG mountain in the south, with typical torrents (bare, steep basins, through which surface water flows quickly);

• Usurpation of local waterways and reduce their bandwidth profile, especially downstream;

• Usurpation the channel-drainage network built in the 1960s and 1970s and their filling with rubble, waste;

• Illegal construction and urban development toward depression of Blatija (“mood plain”) frequently flooded with undeveloped drainage channel network;

• The ring-road as a barrier for surface water flows without suitable omissions and drains.

• Insufficient drainage network with low bandwidth considering the number of population and households;

• Too much concrete surfaces (waterproof areas) at the expense of land-vegetation (water permeability, absorption areas) in the City of Skopje;

• Many low spots against high groundwater level throughout the city;

• Insufficiently effective warning system and response during such occurrences;

• Uninformed population about the way of reaction and action during natural disasters and catastrophes (insufficient public awareness); and

• Lack of proper equipment and resources in the appropriate institutions to deal with major disasters of this kind.

From the natural causes, high intensity of precipitation for a period of only 4 hours is the

most significant. According to official data of HMS of Macedonia, 93 mm of rainfall per square

meter were recorded in the gauge station Zajčev Rid, a rare phenomenon that occurs once

every 100 years. The reason for such abrupt rainfall is the creation of mesocyclone and

supercell cloud with height of 15 km and diameter of 35 km (Spiridonov, 2016). This supercell

cloud was vertically developed and penetrated from the southwest. Due to the direction of

movement of the cloud to the northeast - toward SCG Mountain as a large topographic barrier

(1651 m), the highest rainfall occurred on the contact of southern slopes of the mountain and

Skopje Basin. Huge vertical cloud with differential electricity (at different heights) was the

reason for the large number of electrical discharges to Earth's surface.

Although this rainfall is treated as a natural phenomenon, studies conducted around the

world show that climate change in recent decades and human populations significantly

changed amplitude, size, distribution of rainfall, especially extreme events. According to this,

the strong intensity of rainfall on August 6, had indirect anthropogenic origin.


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Figure 4: Simulation of precipitation (mm) in Skopje area during the event of 6/08/2016

with amounts of 90-110 mm near Čento and Creševo, 80-93 mm in central parts of the city,

and only few mm towards the periphery (based on HMS data).

The second important factor is the terrain features which was hit by the most intensive

rainfall, in particular the southern slopes of Skopska Crna Gora Mountain and the wider (urban)

city area. The aforementioned mountain slopes are very steep and constructed of waterproof

rocks (schists and quartzites). Additionally, numerous anthropogenic influences conditioned

these slopes to be partially deforested with torrential catchments causing abrupt concentration

of rain waters and fast runoff towards the foot or in the direction of Skopje, Blatija and Vardar

valley. However, abandoned drainage channels, often filled with waste, roads without proper

drainage, low bridges caused water to accumulate in depressions forming small lakes.

Because of sharply increased water pressure, road embankments collapsed and water poured

strongly downstream or sideways toward settlements, causing a flash flood. A second

disadvantage is the high level of groundwater in the section between the villages of Creševo,

Smiljkovci, Stajkovci and settlements of Čento and Ilinden, because the land cannot absorb a

large quantity of rains and quickly formed flooding waters. Also, here the problem is the large

number of illegally and improperly constructed buildings in the last decades hampering the flow

of storm water to the riverbeds and canals and burdening the canal-drainage system.

In the city of Skopje, excessive coverage of concrete, asphalt and other waterproof

materials instead of natural land and vegetation caused concentration and slow drainage of

waters, which is complemented by the small capacity of the sewerage, especially in the most

critical places. There are also numerous urban depressions (especially underpasses), which

rapidly accumulate rain waters, even on the main roads, where the groundwater is very high.

The specified conditions permit existence of huge ponds during a few hours.

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Figure 5: Comparisons of land use and urbanization of NE part of Skopje in 1971

(TK25000, WGI, left) and 2016 (Google Earth, right).

At the beginning and immediately after the flood on August 6th, there was a notable lack of

preparation and the majority of the state institutions responsible to deal with natural disasters

were caught by "surprise", which further complicated the situation (Crisis Management Center

of RM, Protection and Rescue Directorate of RM etc.). Also, it was clear that population was

not sufficiently prepared and informed about the ways of dealing with floods and other natural

disasters, which necessitates raising public awareness through education, public information

and others means. Also, it was proved that there is a necessity of having a functional rapid

information system for informing the population in such crisis situations (via radio, sms

messages) about the risky sites and sectors that should be avoided, trouble spots and related

announcements that can be lifesaving (Milevski, 2016a).

SKOPJE EARTHQUAKE ON 09/11/2016

From 11 to 14 September 2016, the City of Skopje and its surroundings were hit by several

stronger and 20 weaker quakes. The series of earthquakes began on Sunday, September 11th

at 6:58 AM, with an epicentar at about 10 km northeast of the center of Skopje, between the

villages of Aračinovo and Creševo. The depth of the quake with magnitude 4.1 and intensity of

V-VI MCS was about 5 km. In 3:10 PM, exactly 8 hours after the first quake, significantly more

powerful earthquake followed with a magnitude of 5.2-5.3 or about 20-30 times more energy

than the first at 6:58 AM. The epicentre of this earthquake (VII-VIII MCS) was a few km east of

the centre of Skopje, at a depth of about 10 km.

Besides panic, this earthquake which proved to be the main, caused some damage

(cracked walls, fallen objects, shelves, stuck elevators, several collapsed chimneys, etc.), and

50 people were reported with minor injuries. According to the effects, the intensity was

estimated at about VII+ MCS and can be defined as natural disaster of small scale.


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Figure 6: Skopje earthquake on September 11, 2016 has caused

minor material damage and injuries to 50 people.

Aside of the Skopje region, the earthquake was felt almost in the whole country, as well as

in Kosovo and southern Serbia near the border with Macedonia. After the main earthquake, in

the following 3 days (12, 13 and 14 September) a growing number of aftershocks followed, with

magnitudes bellow 3, except three earthquakes between 3.8 and 3.1, which caused further

panic among the citizens. The last notable quake in the series occurred on September 14

(Wednesday) at 1:32 AM, with a magnitude of 3.1 and a depth of only 3 km. A few weak

aftershocks continued to "shake” the territory for more than a month after the main earthquake

(Milevski, 2016c).

What’s common to these series of earthquakes arising from the local Skopje seismic

hotspot, is that they were relatively shallow in depth (3-10 km) and strongly felt, especially that

of 5.3M. According to the Seismological Observatory at the Faculty of Natural Sciences in

Skopje, similar earthquakes (with a magnitude of about 5.1-5.3) in the Skopje area occur on

average once every 100 years. It is thought that the greatest expected earthquake that took

place in the Skopje seismic area could reach a magnitude to 6.5 degrees, something stronger

than that of the great earthquake in 1963 (6.1M). The probability of the occurrence of an

earthquake with a magnitude greater than 6 degrees is once in 500 years.

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Figure 7: Epicenters of earthquakes from 11 to 14 September 2016

stronger than 2.5M (circles) and the main fault cracks (lines) in the area.

Causes of the earthquake

During and after the event of the "Skopje earthquakes" from September 11-14, many

people were seeking answers behind the reasons that have caused the earthquakes. The main

reason is the great seismicity of the Skopje depression, as well as most parts of Macedonia

and southern Balkan Peninsula (Petrovski, 2004). The Skopje basin`s shape today is crossed

with more faults in a parallel latitudinal to sub meridian (Vardar or NW-SE) directions (Arsovski,

1997). These faults separate smaller and larger blocks that lie on the bottom of the depression,

and along the rim of the surrounding mountains: Skopska Crna Gora, Vodno, Žeden, Suva

Gora and their respective segments, Markova River Basin and others. Due to various internal

and external factors, blocks are in "sustainable tectonic tension." Over time, these factors led

to a critical moment of stress, followed by horizontal and/or vertical displacement of one or

more blocks along the faults, to achieve the new state of "sustained tension". This shift of one

or more blocks occurs in a very short time (a few seconds), and is recorded as an earthquake.

The actual displacement ranges from a few millimeters to several centimeters, rarely more (in

the case of very strong earthquakes). Especially active faults in the area are the Skopje-

Kjustendil fault (which cuts the Skopje valley in the middle from east to west), followed by SCG

fault (along the western slopes of the same mountain in the direction of v.Ljubanci through

Creševo to Belimbegovo), Lepenec fault, Dračevo and other faults (Arsovski, 1997). Most of

the mentioned faults intersect in nodes, having the strongest potential instability (Jančevski,


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1987). From September 11-14th, earthquakes occurred just beside the fault node where

Kyustendil-Skopje and SCG fault cross at a depth of about 5-10 km and with diameter of about

5 km in fault structures. Along both faults the block of SCG is moving vertically and in western

direction, as it is evidenced by the river turning through valleys that descending from the

mountain (Milevski, 2016c).

Figure 8: Seismic map of the Republic of Macedonia with recorded epicentres

and maximum expected intensity and magnitude (Source: IZIIS).

Thus, local blocks in the Skopje depression are relatively unstable and any strong side

pressure in this region of the collision of the African and European continental plates, as well

as their smaller blocks leads to their shaking (displacement) and the occurrence of an

earthquake. It is important to note that through the faults of SCG, the Skopje seismic zone is

strongly associated with Gnjilane and Uroshevac seismic area in Kosovo so that the

"relaxation" in one seismic zone, often leads to strain on the neighboring seismic zone (and it

leads to seismic manifestation in them).

We should face the fact that most of the territory of Macedonia is seismically active,

especially Valandovo, Debar, Pehchevo, Ohrid-Pogradec and other smaller seismic zones.

Besides the "domestic" there are quite active seismic zones in the neighbouring countries,

especially in Bulgaria (Krupnik-Kresna), Uroševac and Gnjilane in Kosovo (5,1M earthquake in

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2002, strongly felt in Skopje). Strongly felt earthquakes from more distant Balkan seismic

zones are less common in Macedonia. Such was the case with the earthquake in 1979 in

Montenegro, with a magnitude of 7M. Therefore, on the territory of Macedonia and the

neighbouring countries earthquakes over 4M usually appear at intervals of several years which

are sensed by the people and cause anxiety. Although the likelihood of a very strong

earthquake (> 6M) in the country is really small, the probability is always there, and the best

prevention is aseismic construction (Milevski, 2016a).

For humans, earthquakes represent a sudden and terrifying appearance, sometimes with

disastrous consequences and great human losses. However, they, along with volcanoes are

the major driving force in the Earth's evolution - without them, the Earth would be geologically

(and even biologically) "dead" planet. On the territory of Macedonia, earthquakes, and former

volcanoes (2 million years ago) have formed the mountains, valleys, basins and other large

relief structures (so-called structural relief) that we admire today. Earthquakes occurring in this

region lately, just remind us that this natural process of shaping the relief is still in progress and

is quite active.

Thus, the series of earthquakes from September 11 to September 14, caused small

changes (a few centimeters) of block mountain Skopje Montenegro to the northwest, with

minor raising of the elevation from 5-10 mm, and slightly moving the bottom of the valley

(Skopje area). For a single earthquake that’s a small change, but in thousands of years and

after hundreds of earthquakes, the landscape of this part of Macedonia will significantly alter

and evolve, creating new landscapes. In fact, if there aren’t any earthquakes, in a few million

years later, the territory of Macedonia will be peneplain - a wide almost uniform plain, with

slight unevenness a prolonged erosion and the coalescence of watersheds, originated in a

horizontal modeling product. Thus, earthquakes actually subtly change the whole planet, and

they are also changing ourselves!

Reaction during the earthquake

Earthquakes in Macedonia and its area at this point of time are unpredictable, but new

technologies and research is being developed in this direction around the world. However,

based on the findings from past surveys, there are spatially defined areas where the

possibilities of stronger earthquakes are higher. Therefore, those regions and areas should be

planned and implemented with certain preventive measures and further more activities and

actions during the earthquake (Milevski, 2016a).

The best prevention is aseismic structure, which has been the general practice here in the

past 4-5 decades (endurance to about 6M and i = IX),

However, there is a problem with arbitrary violations of statics of structures and buildings

(pushing poles, adding external rooms, extensions, new balconies, etc..)


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If the object is strongly built, there is no need for "panic flight out" in the case of which the

risk of injuries is greater.

The most desirable option is to stand under an internal central pillar, away from items that

may fall or break – never choose the elevator, stairs, balcony, etc.

If a person decides to run outside the building, they need to stay at a distance of at least 2-

3 times the height of the building, otherwise the risk of falling parts of the construction is very

large.

CONCLUSION

According to recent and historical records, the territory of the Republic of Macedonia is at

risk from various natural hazards. In the summer of 2016, large flash flood occured in Skopje

region causing 23 deaths and huge damage. Only a month later, the city was hit by a moderate

earthquake (the latter fortunately without major consequences). Actually, in the last decade,

numerous landslides and rockfalls were recorded around the country, then frequent fires, heat

waves, floods etc. Numerous scenarios, analyzes and trends show that in the coming years

and decades, the frequency of natural disasters will increase (Bergant, 2006). For example, the

100-year extreme rainfall of 80 to 100 mm/day up to 1980-ties, has already become 20-year for

most of the territory of Macedonia. Following the trends of the Balkan Peninsula, we should

already take in account the daily extremes of 150 and even 200 mm and 100 mm in 4 hours.

Accordingly, as all other natural factors, in particular landscape configuration, geology, soils,

etc., there, dimensioned and conducted appropriate preventive measures should be designed

aiming not only for protection against floods, but also against landslides, excessive erosion,

fires, the consequences of earthquakes and other hazards.

Unfortunately, nature in Macedonia is usually seen only as an inexhaustible resource and

possibility of exploitation (forests, soils, sands, stones) without anyone addressing the

penalties. This behaviour leads to the formation of "uncovered wasteland", "wounded" with

hundreds of quarries. Watercourses are "sources" of sand and gravel, canals are used as

convenient places for landfills and dump-sites, and fertile lands as excellent sites for

construction of houses and buildings (until the first rain emerges). High, steep and unstable

slopes become places for "prestige" buildings (until the landslide activations) and the old

dilapidated buildings, have become a great opportunity to upgrade from all sides according to

the "highest aseismic standards " - until a slightly stronger quake occurs. There is much that

needs to be done to change this behavior, from childhood or elementary education in such a

way that:

• Introducing the contents pertaining to natural hazards and disasters in lectures of geography (also covering the risks in the Republic of Macedonia),

• Familiarizing students with the basic mechanisms, prevention, risks, hazards and appropriate ways to react if confronted with a natural disaster or catastrophe,

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• Proper education from an earlier age can influence on drastic reduction of damages, loss of human life, even preventively on occurrence or impact of natural disasters.

Besides that, broad educational campaigns are required, frequent media briefings and

statements, implementing more rigorous, realistic and fair sentencing policy for all individuals

who act recklessly with nature. The opinion of experts and proven professionals should be fully

respected and utilized. Nature must be respected, loved, healed where is "wounded", and

refined. If humans only take resources from nature without any measure, solely for their own

needs, it will backfire on them. Maybe not today and not to us personally, but in the future

(Milevski, 2016b).

Figure 9: Model of areas at risk of torrential flooding in the northeastern part of the Skopje valley,

made with SAGA GIS hydrology modules.

REFERENCES

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