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www.woodmac.com AUGUST 2013 Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future Clean, Abundant and Secure in the United States

Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

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Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future. Clean, Abundant and Secure in the United States. AUGUST 2013. Why Natural Gas? Why Now?. Why Natural Gas? Proven contributor to economy, environment and energy security Jobs and economic growth - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

www.woodmac.com

AUGUST 2013

Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

Clean, Abundant and Secure in the United States

Page 2: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

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Page 3: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

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Why Natural Gas? Why Now?

Why Natural Gas? Proven contributor to economy, environment and energy security

Jobs and economic growth

Creates nearly 3 million jobs – direct and indirect – resulting in $180 billion in labor income between 2005 - 2010

Contributes to economy – over $3.5 billion per year average in government revenues between 2005 and 2010

Contributes to global competitiveness

Environmental benefits

Low emissions

Small land footprint

Sustainable

Essential to complement renewable energy sources

Domestic energy security

More than a 100-year supply and growing

Why Now? Abundant, secure and domestic

Huge untapped shale gas resource newly unleashed by innovation and technology

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2001 to 2013 - A Decade Makes a Difference

Then Now

60-year supply and falling

Shale known but uneconomic to

develop

Underground gas storage primarily

traditional reservoir, operationally not

very flexible

Pipeline capacity growing

incrementally

Rising prices with several spikes

100+ years supply and growing

Flourishing production, vast shale

resources now accessible

Storage boom with more flexible salt-

cavern facilities and additional market

area storage

16,000+ miles of interstate pipeline

added since 2000

Plentiful supplies moderate prices and

provide supply diversity

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More Than 100-Year Supply

Estimates are always evolving and usually growing with improvements in technology.

If the 1966 estimate of 600 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) had remained static, the U.S. would have run out of natural gas about 10 years ago.

Estimates fall on the conservative side: history shows us there is more to be discovered.

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How The Game Has Changed

Improvements in technology brought down costs and greatly increased the scope of resource development

Shale gas production quadrupled between 2006 – 2012 and is poised to comprise more than 40% of U.S. gas production in 2020

Shale and other “unconventional’ gases could account for over 80% of U.S. gas production by 2020, compared to 66% today

Diversity of supply complements strong and growing pipeline system, reduces vulnerability to hurricanes, brings natural gas closer to consumers Gas Production by Type Through 2040

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013

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Technology Makes It All Work

Drilling technology improvements and efficiencies in shale have emerged

Longer horizontal laterals

Multiple-stage hydraulic fractures per lateral

Small surface footprint for multiple, extended wells

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing result in gas wells with long stable production lives

Ground water is separated by thousands of feet and tons of impermeable rock and protected by state and federal regulation

Significant amount of water is recycled

“Micro-seismic” technology evolving and enabling even greater precision in fracturing wells

Source: American Petroleum Institute

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Abundant Unconventional Gas Widespread Across U.S. U.S. Gas Reserves Increased 22% between 2006 – 2009 Primarily Due to Shale Development

Source: Energy Information Administration based on data from published studiesUpdated: May 2011

Page 9: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

Government Oversight of Natural Gas Production

Regulated by states and under the following federal laws:

Clean Water Act – surface water discharge, storm water runoff

Clean Air Act – air emissions associated with processing equipment and engines

Safe Drinking Water Act – underground injection disposal/reuse of produced water and flowback fluids

Federal Land Policy and Management Act – permitting for federal onshore resources

Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act – permitting for federal offshore resources

National Environmental Policy Act – permits and environmental impact statements

Occupational Safety and Health Act – requires information about chemicals used at every site

Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act – annual reporting to emergency responders of chemicals stored and used above certain quantities

Extensive State Oversight – implement federal laws and regulate drilling fluids and produced water management

Detailed state regulatory information available at www.STRONGERInc.org

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Taxes – The Industry Earns a Little and Pays a Lot -DRAFT

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0

5

10

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25

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bc

fd

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Shale Production Grows to Over 30 bcfd by 2025 By 2020, shale gas to comprise more than 40% of production, compared to 20% today

Barnett

Woodford

Haynesville

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Other

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Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Other

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcf

d e

qu

ival

ent

United States Total Energy and Natural Gas Demand 2000-2030

Total U.S. Primary Energy By Type

Source: Wood Mackenzie

U.S. Natural Gas Demand By Sector

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Power

Other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030bc

fd

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Adequate Natural Gas Supply at Competitive Prices Helps Grow the U.S. Economy

Lower gas prices have helped U.S. industry

Chemical and fertilizer facilities seeing increased utilization with lower gas prices

Shale gas helping chemical sector to create 17,000 jobs and build new plants

Energy-intensive industry can be more competitive in the global market

Additional potential demand from natural gas vehicles

U.S. Industrial Demand for Natural Gas

Source: Wood Mackenzie

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bc

fd

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Natural Gas’ Impact on the U.S. Economy and Employment

Natural gas companies contributed an average of $3 billion per year in gas royalty payments to the federal government between 2008 and 2012

Overall contribution to the economy in jobs created and taxes paid is much greater:

$385 billion to the domestic economy in 2008

$180 billion in labor income alone

Nearly 3 million American jobs

600,000 directly employed in natural gas development

Shale development projected to add 1.4 million more U.S. jobs by 2035

Sources: IHS Global Insight, 2010 and 2013 U.S. Department of the Interior’s Office of Natural Resources Revenue, 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2013

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As Supply Increases, Price Forecasts Have Dropped, With Henry Hub Now Forecast Under $6.00 to Mid - 2020s

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011

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As Supply Increases, Price Forecasts Have Dropped, With Henry Hub Now Forecast Under $6.00 to Mid - 2020s

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013

DRAFT – NOTE that AEO 2013 shows price climb after 2035

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Industry Already Recognizing Importance of Natural Gas by Investing in Storage, Pipelines, and Gas Generation

NEEDS UPDATE

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Pipeline System Extensive and Expanding at Record Pace

Between 2000 and 2010, FERC approved more than 16,000 miles of new interstate pipeline, with capacity to move an additional 113 bcf per day

Pipeline system connects U.S. with Canada and Mexico

Storage capacity grew 22% from 2006 - 2010

Half of new storage is flexible high-turnover salt dome and is closer to customers

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Market Responsive Infrastructure Additions

Major Gas Pipeline Projects Certificated (MMcf/d) January 2000 to February 2011

Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

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www.woodmac.comU.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure: Anticipated Investment Through 2035

Source: INGAA Foundation’s North American Natural Gas Midstream Infrastructure Through 2035

$205B in midstream infrastructure investments

125,000 jobs every year for 20 years

$57B in federal, state & local tax revenue

since 2005, pipeline avg. cap/ex:

$8.8 Billion/yr

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Natural Gas and Power Generation

Low capital and operating costs relative to other technologies

Clean burning – low carbon, GHGs, mercury, particulates, SOx, NOx

Low water use compared to other technology

Small land footprint

Easier to permit, finance and build

Natural gas key to making intermittent resources viable

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Natural Gas@$5.50

Natural Gas@$7.00

Biomass Coal @$2 Wind Nuclear Solar Thermal

Operating & Maintenance Capital Fuel AirControl

Capital and Operating Costs Make Gas a Preferred Choice for Power Generation

Source: Wood MackenzieRenewable sources & nuclear include a federal tax creditAssumes $2.00/mmbtu coal prices

A combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) natural gas facility is the least expensive, full-cycle generation alternative.

$/M

WH

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Natural Gas Is Among the Cleanest Electric Generation Alternatives

Natural gas is clean burning

Most emissions Middle emissions Least emissions

Sources: R.W. Beck data and, EPA “Mercury in Petroleum and Natural Gas Report”

Tons per year per thousand households

Biomass (Wood)

Coal Natural GasNuclear &

Renewables

Carbon Monoxide (CO) 51 5.8 1.5 0.0

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Low 9,362 3,558 0.0

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) 28 3.4 0.3 0.0

Particulate Matter 2.7 0.9 0.0 0.0

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

5.6 0.2 0.0 0.0

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 2.8 5.0 0.2 0.0

Mercury 0.0 0.0001 0.0 0.0

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0.40.7 0.7 0.8

6

8.4

0

1

2

3

4

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Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar

Natural gas has the smallest footprint of any energy source

Acr

es

Source: R.W. Beck and Black and Veatch for NGSA

Acres of land needed to produce the fuel and generate enough electricity to serve 1,000 households for one year

Land Usage Also Makes Gas a Preferred Choice for Power Generation

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To Make It All Happen, Industry Is Committed to Good Stewardship

Listening to and addressing community concerns

Use of stringent industry and government standards on land reclamation,

well construction, water management and pipeline safety

Responsible hydraulic fracturing practices

Minimizing surface effects on land and infrastructure

Offshore safety and spill containment

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… And Government Must Do Its Part As Well

Fair access to onshore and offshore resources

Continued strong and effective state regulation of hydraulic fracturing

Level playing field: avoid picking winners and losers through mandates

Tax policy must be fair, not burdensome, and compatible with resource development and job creation

Financial regulations must not create “economic drain” on investment

Current regulatory model for pipelines ensures safe, reliable operations and infrastructure investment

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Back-up Slides

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Greater Use of Natural Gas Resulted in a Plunge In U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2012

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“Greater use of natural gas in early 2012 resulted in the lowest U.S. carbon emissions since 1992.” -- Today in Energy, U.S. Energy Information Administration, August 1, 2012.

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Water Intensity for Various Power Generation Technologies

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

CombinedCycle Conv.

Gas

CombinedCycle Shale

Gas

Coal Thermal Nuclear Solar trough Geothermal

Steam Cycle*

Other Use**

Fuel Production

Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, “Energy Demands on Water Resources”, December 2006; NREL, “A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies,” March 2011; Chesapeake for shale gas water use* Assumes closed loop cooling tower**Other use includes water for other process uses such as emissions treatment, facilities

Gallons / MWh

Gas-fired combined cycle power plants use much less water than thermal power plants with only a small contribution from gas production

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Natural Gas Spurring 50 Major Industrial Projects 2012-2018

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Storage Allows Flexibility and Reliability in Delivery

Natural gas storage capacity grew 22% between 2006 and 2010 to over 4.3 Tcf working capacity

Much of the new storage capacity has been high delivery, flexible salt storage

The new storage provides additional reliability to the pipeline system, as well as allowing quick response to peaking electric generation requirements

Type Sites = Depleted Reservoir 326 = Aquifer 43 = Salt Cavern 31

Southwest

NEEDS UPDATE

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Resource Estimates Show Transformed Supply Outlook

Shale gas exponentially increased the size of the natural gas resource base

Improvements in technology brought down costs to develop

Diversity of supply complements strong and growing pipeline system, reduces vulnerability to hurricanes, brings natural gas closer to consumers

Resource size has increased with each successive report -- even though more than 200 trillion cubic feet drawn down in last decade alone

Source: NPC Prudent Development Report, September 2011

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Typical Shale Well: Horizontal Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing Provide Long, Stable Production Life

Initial Production from Typical Shale Well2 to 15 million cubic feet per day*

* Based on one company’s experience of typical production from the Haynesville shale wells

First Production

40+ Years AfterFirst Production

Supply Stability

High initial production ratesLong and stable production lives

Typical conventional well decline, 3 – 5 yearsInitial Production

Page 34: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

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34Source: National Petroleum Council, September 2011

Distance of about 8 Empire State Buildings separates

groundwater from fractures

Page 35: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

States and Industry Cooperate on Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Disclosure

FracFocus – Public registry created and managed by state regulators in 2011. FracFocus 2.0 launched in 2013.

Captured over 50,000 wells and more than 400 participating companies; several states using as tool for compliance reporting

Fluid is 99% water and sand, less than 1% chemical additives

Searchable public database with well-by-well information and glossary of chemicals

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Recycling wastewater reduces environmental footprint, transportation costs and reliance on groundwater or municipal sources of water

•Drilling companies in the Marcellus recycled more than 66 % of water June 2008-May 2010

•Re-used 44 million gallons of water & disposed of 21 million gallons (Source: Penn State University Hydrologist David

Yoxtheimer)

Producer goal: Recycle 100% of produced water in Pennsylvania

State wide test results show recycled water meets all federal radium standards

•Quote: “…all samples tested … showed levels at or below the normal naturally occurring background levels of radioactivity.” (Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, March 7, 2011)

State and local testing of water to continue on regular basis, with strong support from natural gas companies

How Much Is 5 Million Gallons?

The 5 million gallons of water needed to drill and fracture a typical deep shale gas well is equivalent to the amount of

water consumed by:

• New York City in approximately

seven minutes • A 1,000 megawatt coal-

fired power plant in 12 hours

• A golf course in 25 days

• 10 acres of cotton in a season

While these represent continuing consumption, the water used for a gas well is a

one-time use.

How Much Is 5 Million Gallons?

The 5 million gallons of water needed to drill and fracture a typical deep shale gas well is equivalent to the amount of

water consumed by:

• New York City in approximately

seven minutes • A 1,000 megawatt coal-

fired power plant in 12 hours

• A golf course in 25 days

• 10 acres of cotton in a season

While these represent continuing consumption, the water used for a gas well is a

one-time use.

Water Management

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Natural Gas Royalty Payments and Tax Treatment

In last 10 years, the natural gas industry paid the federal government more than $72 billion in natural gas royalties

Payments are in addition to: billions of dollars paid in federal taxes, $7.5 billion in royalty payments to states, $2 billion in royalties to tribes and rent payments.

Existing tax treatment provides reasonable recovery of exploration, lease acquisition and drilling costs and have enabled industry enough capital in recent years to produce a record amount of natural gas, resulting in:

Affordable energy for households, businesses and industries

Steady growth of jobs in natural gas and supporting industries; with projections of 1 million more by 2030

Capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion/year

Billions in revenues to federal, state and tribal governments

Source: U.S. Office of Natural Resources Revenue, 2011

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Natural Gas Royalty Payments and Tax Treatment

In last 10 years, the natural gas industry paid the federal government more than $72 billion in natural gas royalties

Payments are in addition to: billions of dollars paid in federal taxes, $7.5 billion in royalty payments to states, $2 billion in royalties to tribes and rent payments.

Existing tax treatment provides reasonable recovery of exploration, lease acquisition and drilling costs and have enabled industry enough capital in recent years to produce a record amount of natural gas, resulting in:

Affordable energy for households, businesses and industries

Steady growth of jobs in natural gas and supporting industries; with projections of 1 million more by 2030

Capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion/year

Billions in revenues to federal, state and tribal governments

Source: U.S. Office of Natural Resources Revenue, Department of the Interior, 2013

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LNG Exports: Natural Gas Supply in Abundance

Enough for all U.S. demand Plan: Bring dollars to U.S. and reduce trade deficit by

selling LNG to overseas trading partners.

• Reduces U.S. trade deficit by billions of dollars.

• Each $1 billion LNG sold = 6,000 new jobs.

• Generates over $10 million/year in new tax revenue for

federal, state, and local governments.

Page 40: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

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LNG Exports: Global Perspective

Reality Check

• Most analysts estimate global market for U.S. natural gas to settle out at 5 and 6 Bcf/day.

• With formidable competition emerging from overseas.

• Proposed/potential 17 U.S. projects total about 23 Bcf/day.

• Costs to build high and financiers must be convinced price advantage is sustainable for 30 years.

• Market will sort out how many get built.

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Proposed and Potential Export Terminals

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PROPOSED TO FERC (8 Projects as of Feb. 2013) TOTAL CAPACITY

Freeport LNG (Freeport, TX) 1.8 Bcfd

Cheniere (Corpus Christi, TX) 2.1 Bcfd

Jordan Cove Energy Project (Coos Bay, OR) 0.9 Bcfd

Southern Union-Trunkline LNG(Lake Charles, LA) 2.4 Bcfd

Sempra-Cameron LNG (Hackberry, LA) 1.7 Bcfd

Dominion-Cove Point LNG (Cove Point, MD) 0.75 Bcfd

Oregon LNG (Astoria, OR) 1.30 Bcfd

Excelerate Liquefaction (Lavaca Bay, TX) 1.38 Bcf/d

POTENTIAL (9 Projects as of Feb. 2013) TOTAL CAPACITY

Gulf Coast LNG Export (Brownsville, TX) 2.8 Bcfd

Gulf LNG Liquefaction (Pascagoula, MS) 1.50 Bcfd

Southern LNG Company (Elba Island, GA) 0.50 Bcfd

ExxonMobil-Golden Pass (Sabine Pass, TX) 2.60 Bcfd

CE FLNG (Plaquemines Parish, LA) 1.07 Bcfd

Waller LNG Services (Cameron Parish, LA) 0.16 Bcfd

Pangea LNG (Ingleside, TX) 1.09 Bcfd

Magnolia LNG (Lake Charles, LA) 0.54 Bcfd

Gasfin Development (Cameron Parish, LA) 0.20 Bcfd

Source: FERC Office of Energy Projects, Feb. 2013

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Natural Gas for Transportation Can Make Sense in Heavy-Duty Fleet Vehicles

Long term success of passenger NGVs linked to consumer confidence, not government subsidies

Heavy-duty truck conversions to natural gas can provide very healthy returns, but will be most successful in fleets

Reduces oil imports and improves energy security

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Ve

hic

les

History Base Moderate

Aggressive NGV America

Sources: Wood Mackenzie/NGV America

Realistic NGV Infiltration Lies Somewhere in the Midst of These Forecasts

Page 43: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

Natural Gas Supply Terminology

ResourcesAll natural gas technically

recoverable(excludes hydrates)

ReservesResources profitable with known

technology

Possible ReservesResources profitable with known

technology, 10% confidence

Probable ReservesResources profitable with known

technology, 50% confidence

Proven ReservesResources profitable with known

technology, 90% confidence

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Industry Structure in the U.S. Physical Flow of Gas

Source: EIA

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INGAA Foundation Study Infrastructure Investment Summary

Source: INGAA (2011), http://www.ingaa.org/File.aspx?id=14911

Page 47: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

www.woodmac.comU.S. Natural Gas Processing Plants

Page 48: Natural Gas: Helping to Ensure Our Energy Future

www.woodmac.comNatural Gas: Clean, Abundant, and Secure in the U.S.ContactsAmerica’s Natural Gas Alliance

Brian Kelly, Vice President, Legislative Affairs - [email protected]

American Exploration & Production Council

Bruce Thompson, President - [email protected]

American Gas Association

Bree Raum, Director of Government Relations - [email protected]

American Petroleum Institute

Carrie Domnitch, Director of Federal Relations - [email protected]

Center for Liquefied Natural Gas

Bill Cooper, President - [email protected]

Gas Processors Association

Jeff Applekamp, Director of Government Affairs - [email protected]

Independent Petroleum Association of America

Lee Fuller, Vice President of Government Relations - [email protected]

Interstate Natural Gas Association of America

Martin Edwards, Vice President, Legislative Affairs – [email protected]

Natural Gas Supply Association

Jeff Schrade, Director of Political Communications – [email protected]

US Oil & Gas Association

Albert Modiano, President – [email protected]

SLIDE UPDATES: Daphne Magnuson, NGSA Director of Public Affairs, [email protected]

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