Natural Gas Data Systems

Conceptual FrameworkMeasurement and DistributionCurrent Developments and Changes

Roy KassEnergy Information AdministrationMay 1999

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Gas ProcessingPlant

Pipeline

UndergroundStorage

LocalDistrib.Company

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Elect. Util.

Imports

Generalized Schematic Physical Flow of Natural Gas in U.S.

Consumers

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Gas ProcessingPlant

Pipeline

UndergroundStorage

LocalDistrib.Company

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Elect. Util.

Imports

Generalized SchematicSales of Natural Gas in U.S.

Third Party (Marketer, Broker)

Consumers

Measurement and Dissemination

of Natural Gas DataProduction

Storage

Consumption by Residential, Commercial, Industrial

Consumption by Regulated Utilities

Consumption by Other Electric Generation

Transportation

Measurement and Dissemination

of Natural Gas Data

Overarching Fact of Natural Gas Data Surveys:

Respondents are companies that physically deliver the gas and who report on a “custody” or physical delivery basis.

Natural Gas Production

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Survey of Producing States and Mineral Management Service

“Evolving Estimate” in Natural Gas Monthly. Full data are not complete until the Fall of the following year

Underground Natural Gas Storage

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Monthly Survey of Storage Field Operators -- asking injections, withdrawals, base gas, working gas.Confidential Survey

State- and National-level aggregates published in Natural Gas Monthly

Residential, Commercial and Industrial Consumption

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Monthly Survey of 400 Company/States (Delivered to End Users) Confidential Survey

Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly Volumes by Sector Price (onsystem sales only) by Sector

Consumption at Regulated Electric Utilities

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Surveys of Regulated Electric Utilities One focusses on volumes consumed Another focusses on price of fuel consumed

Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly Volumes consumed by Electric Utilities Price of fuel used in generation by Electric Utilities

Volumes and Prices: Special Datasets for Monthly Data

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Special datasets on Web Text files for Total United States Flat files with synopsis of State x Sector volumes, prices and percentage onsystem sales

Monthly Surveys already noted

Annual State-To-State Flows

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential

State Level Aggregates -- Natural Gas Annual

Micro Level Responses -- EIA-176 Query System

Measurement and Aggregation of Annual

Supply, Disposition, PricesMeasured By

Disseminated Through

Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential

National, Regional, and State Level Aggregation -- Natural Gas Annual and Historical Natural Gas Annual

Measurement and Respondent-level Dissemination:Annual Supply,

Disposition, Prices

Measured By

Disseminated Through

Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential

Micro-level database -- EIA176 Query System

Natural Gas Data Systems Development

With changes in the regulatory and financial environment, EIA’s natural gas systems are increasingly unable to successfully measure the industry

* Separation of equity from custody flows

* Rise of Actors outside the scope of current systems

* Development of new phenomena such as market hubs

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 20000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Residential Commercial Industrial

RestructuringHistory Projections

Percentage of Natural Gas Deliveries For Which Price is Percentage of Natural Gas Deliveries For Which Price is Measured, By Sector: 1984 forwardMeasured, By Sector: 1984 forward

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS (NG)2

A project to design and implement a new, comprehensive information program for natural gas to meet

customer requirements in the

post-2000 time frame.

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS

Problems with EIA’s Current Natural Gas Information Program

The data collection program currently in place was designed before industry restructuring

Changes in the regulatory environment and industry restructuring have challenged EIA’s ability to provide information on the natural gas industry

EIA captured only 15 % of industrial prices in 1998 compared with 75 % in 1984

With customer choice program underway for residential and small commercial consumers, coverage of prices paid by those consumers will likely decline as well

There is currently no coverage of many new transportation and marketing activities which have developed in the energy market.

Next Generation * Natural Gas

Project Overview

Data Requirements

Information CollectionRedesign

Cognitive andPilot Testing

Implementation

IndustryConceptual

Design

Focus GroupReport

Next Generation * Natural Gas

Data Requirements

Determine InitialRequirements

4/30/99

Refine Requirements(within EIA)

8/1/99

Finalize DataRequirements

4/1/00

Secure Buy-In forData Requirements

(Outside EIA)3/1/00

Operationalize DataRequirements

6/1/00

Focus GroupReport

Quality AssuranceProjects

IndustryConceptual

Design

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS

Focus Groups: 1998

1. NARUC Gas Committee2. EIA Staff3. Gas Industry Standards Board4. Academics, Consultants, and

Attorneys5. Federal Officials6. GasMart Conference7. Energy Mix at University of

Houston8. American Public Gas

Association (small LDCs)9. DOE NARUC10. U.S. Association of Energy

Economists

Executive Interviews: 1998 & 1999

1. GasMart Conference2. Media3. Trade Groups4. Congressional5. Consultants6. Investment Community

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS Focus Group Highlights

• Market data to assess competitiveness ”Consumers are going to be asking, particularly as the direct market more and more encroaches on residential [customers], ‘Why am I paying what I’m paying, and is it fair?’”

information about marketers prices, measured at various points market forces that drive prices the effect of electricity generation on the gas market

• Pipeline capacity data• The role of storage in the deregulated industry ”I would put a big

emphasis on the storage side ….. There’s more EIA can do in terms of the price of gas going into and out of storage, who it’s being sold by, who the owners are, how much of the capacity is changing hands over the year, who owns it, when they’re using it on a seasonal basis, et cetera.”

• More timely data; real-time market data

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GASData Requirements: What We Have Accomplished to Date

• Gathered customer input through focus groups (10 groups) and executive interviews.

• Developed a data requirements database from focus group results.

• Presently conducting meetings to validate and refine requirements for the major segments of the natural gas industry.

• Established and presently conducting a “Communications Plan.”

• Established an Intranet site.

• Initiated several data quality and data methodology studies.

NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GASWhat We Expect to Accomplish by the End of the Year

• Publish a Federal Register Notice seeking comments on the natural gas information program

• Develop a retail unbundling status report by State• Establish an Internet Website • Refine the data requirements• Initiate discussions with customers to seek buy-in

for data requirements