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8/26/2008
1
Natural Gas 201Natural Gas 201Presented to August 27&28, 2008
Presented by:Warren WillitsEnergy Solutions Center
1
Energy Solutions [email protected]
Natural Gas 201Natural Gas 201ConsumptionSupplyPipeline OperationProductionPricing
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Total Energy ConsumptionTotal Energy ConsumptionNatural Gas accounts for roughly 1/4th of U.S. primary energy consumption
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Other
Source: Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Natural Gas ConsumptionNatural Gas Consumption
The U.S. produces natural gas from Plant
Gas ConsumptionMillion Cubic Feet
natural gas from wells within the U.S. but also imports natural gas from abroad.
Plant Operations
5.1%
Pipeline & Distribution
2.7%
Residential20.5%
Commercial13.0%Industrial
28.8%Vehicle Fuel
0 1%
Electric Power
Generation29.8%
0.1%
Source: 2007 EIA Natural Gas Consumption by End Use data
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Consumption vs. Consumption vs. Market SegmentMarket Segment
Segment Number of Amount of Total Segment Customers Consumption
Residential 90% 23%
Commercial 9% 14%
Industrial < 1 % 38%Industrial 1 % 38%
Electric Generation < 1 % 25%
Supply ResourcesSupply Resources
2400CoalbedMethane
Recoverable Gas Resources in the U.S. (1968-2004)
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
Potential Resources Proven Reserves
Methane
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
0
400
1968 1980 1990 2000 2004
Source: Potential Gas Committee
Cumulative Production
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Natural Gas Supply Source Natural Gas Supply Source -- U.S.U.S.
- 15%
LNG - 1%
- 84%
Gas Production Gas Production is Responsive to Market $is Responsive to Market $
30,000
$7 00
$8.00Gas Wells Drilled
Real Wellhead Price
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Wel
ls D
rille
d Pe
r Yea
r
$2 00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Wel
lhea
d Pr
ice
(199
9 $)
0
5,000
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration
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5
Historical PricingHistorical Pricing
At Henry Hub$
/M
MB
tu
Source: Energy and Environmental Analysis (EEA)
OperationsOperationsPipeline Operations‒ Compression
M i t‒ Maintenance‒ Underground StorageDistribution Operations‒ Gate Stations‒ Mains and Services‒ Metering
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Distribution OperationsDistribution Operations
Supply ManagementGate Stations‒ Odorant‒ Pressure reductionConstruction
LDC Gas Supply ManagementLDC Gas Supply Management
Co. Production1%
Other%
LNG SNG Propane
0%
Annual Profile Peak Day Profile
Co. Ow ned Gas44%
Storage36%
1%Other2%LNG SNG Propane
5%Co. Owned Gas
30%
Storage8%
0%0%
Transport12%
Transport62%
Source: Energy Information Administration, AGA Survey
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Supply Management … Supply Management … (continued)(continued)
Gas Supplier Options‒ Intrastate pipeline‒ Producer‒ Producer‒ Marketer‒ Company-owned productionGas Contract Options‒ Length‒ Pricing
Indexed (monthly, weekly)FixedSpotHedged (NYMEX)
Consumption could grow by >20% Consumption could grow by >20% by 2020by 2020 Gas Consumption
(Trillion Cubic Feet, Tcf)30
10
15
20
25
C i l
Industrial
Power Generation
0
5
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Residential
Commercial
Other
Source: Energy Information Administration
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Offshore ProductionOffshore Production66
US Lower-48 Undiscovered Gas Resources Subject to Access Restrictions*
PacificOffshore
Shelf and Slope19 Tcf
AtlanticOffshore
Shelf and Slope27 Tcf
CanadianScotian Shelf
BaltimoreCanyonTrough
CarolinaTrough–
Salt Basin
Blake
Major basinsaffected• Green River• Powder R iver• Paradox/San Juan• U inta/Piceance• M ontana Thrust Belt
Rockies**29 Tcf
Charting_a_Path_Workshop_I_082703
Eastern GulfShelf and Slope
OCS Sale181
BlakePlateauBasinGas production/discovery
Oil productionOil and gas production
24Tcf
10530-43
Source: Cam bridge Energy Research Associates.Note: 207 Tcf have restrictions or are off lim its:* 99 Tcf are off lim its for exploration and developm ent.** An additional 108 Tcf of the Rockies gas resources are available w ith restrictions.
M ay 2003
U.S. Unconventional ProductionU.S. Unconventional Production
f) 20.0JAF2004074.XLS19.2 19.4
In the past three years, unconventional gas has helped maintain U.S. production and now accounts for 35% of U.S. natural gas supplies.
Natur
al Ga
s Pro
ducti
on (T
cf
5.0
10.0
15.0
2000 2003
35% of U.S. total
5.5 5.4
3.1 2.84.8 4.4
5.8 6.8
Sources:• Conventional/Offshore – EIA Annual Reserve Reports.• Unconventional – Advanced Resources International data base.
TotalDomestic
Production
OnshoreConventional
UnconventionalGas
U.S.
N
0.0Associated
GasFederalOffshore
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U.S. Unconventional ProductionU.S. Unconventional ProductionAll three of these unconventional gas resources - - tight gas sands, coalbed methane and gas shales – have experienced increased production.
atura
l Gas
Pro
ducti
on (T
cf)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.02000 2003
4.0
4.6
1.4 1.6
Source: Advanced Resources International data base.
GasShales
CoalbedMethane
Tight GasSands
U.S.
Na
0.0
1.00.4 0.6
LNG imports could quadruple by 2009LNG imports could quadruple by 2009
2 53.0
et
0.00.51.01.52.02.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Trill
ion
Cub
ic F
ee
Year LNG L-48 Imports
Source: AGA
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10
Alaskan PotentialAlaskan Potential
W o r ld -c la s s G a s T rea t in g
N G L E x tra c t io n P la n t
D e s ig n e d O v er 5 0 0 0 m ile s o f p ip e lin e
W o r ld c la s s G a s T rea t in g P la n t fo r C O 2 re m o va l
o f p ip e lin e• 5 2 ”, 2 0 0 0 to 2 5 0 0 p s ig• 2 4 - 2 8 C o m p re s s o rs S ta t io n s• O v e r 1 2 0 0 S t re a m C ro s s in g s• O v e r 1 5 0 0 R o a d C ro s s in g s
Proposed 4.5 BCF/D pipelineAdds 35-40 TCF of reserve immediately
Potential incremental supplyPotential incremental supply
6 0
7.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Bcf/d
0.0Eastern GOM LNG Expansions New LNG
TerminalsAlaskan Gas
Pipeline
Source: AGA
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Pricing to LDCPricing to LDCRate of return regulated by FERC‒ Traditional contracts with set rates‒ Capacity release marketp yTypes of contracts/services‒ Firm‒ Interruptible‒ Transportation‒ OtherFactors impacting returns‒ Demand - weather‒ Competition from other pipelinesCompetition from other pipelines‒ New construction‒ Conservation
Pricing to consumerPricing to consumer
Regulated pricing (supply and transportation)‒ Firm
I t tibl‒ InterruptibleDeregulated pricing (transportation only)‒ Firm‒ Interruptible
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Thank you!Thank you!Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?
23