NATO SAS 130 CoA Analysis in 21st Century - Connections North … · 2019-03-12 · 3/11/19 1 CONNECTIONS NORTH Seminar 16 FEB 2019 UNCLASSIFIED Slide 1 NATO SAS-130 Course of Action

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Slide 1UNCLASSIFIEDCONNECTIONS NORTH Seminar 16 FEB 2019

NATO SAS-130Course of Action Analysis in the 21st

Century

CONNECTIONS NORTH16 February 2019

Dr. Murray DixsonDefence Research and Development Canada,Centre for Operational Research and Analysis


• Bottom line up front• SAS-130 Overview• The Problem• Objectives• Scoping• Data Collection• Key Observations• Options under consideration• SAS-130 roadmap

Outline

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• This briefing is intended to:

– Introduce you to NATO SAS-130.

– Explain our mandate. What are we trying to do?

– Ask for the assistance of the wargaming

communities to provide us with insights into our

issues.

Bottom Line Up Front


System Analysis and Studies (SAS)-130 Overview

• Activity Type: STO Research Task Group (RTG)• Dates: Activity Start: April 2017

Activity Finish: March 2020

• Product: Technical Report

• Co-Chairs:

Canada

NATO NCIA

• List of Participating Nations: (CAN, CZE, FIN, USA: CAA, IDA, NPS, CNGW)

• List of other entities Participating: (NATO: NCIA, SACT, LandCom)

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• Cold War:– NATO planning/CoA analysis focussed on large-scale

collective defence.– Tools: “wargame” tools well suited to the task.

• Post Cold War:– Changed defence environment: non-state actors, COIN,

precision weapons, SOF, cyber, etc.

– Cold War tools not suited to the task. New ones developed.

• Today:– Defence environment changed again: Russia, China rising.– Renewed need for analysis of large scale collective

defence.

The Problem – some background


• NATO CoA tools mostly designed for analyses

of Crisis Response Operations (CRO), not large

scale collective defence scenarios where

wargaming and campaign models were

traditionally used.

• Perception: current NATO CoA tools do not

reflect the changes in the defence

environment from the last roughly 15 years

with enough fidelity.

The Problem

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• SAS-130 Mandate in a nutshell:• Improve NATO CoA analyses at strategic and operational levels.

• Understand the limits of applying war games and campaign models to inform NATO CoA analyses of contemporary and new and emerging defense issues.• Suggest ways of overcoming these limits.

• Proposed approach:• Leverage the expertise and capabilities within the nations to

enhance NATO and national defence and operational planning.

• Establish the state of campaign analysis models and wargaming within NATO and the nations, identify shortfalls, implement appropriate short term corrective measures and identify additional actions that could potentially be used to achieve the main objective.

Objectives


• CoA analysis:

– Scope includes strategic and operational planning as practiced by NATO:

• Crisis Response

• Defence planning scenario analysis

• NATO operational planning process

• Wargaming:

– Scope includes “human-centric” games: e.g. without the need for computer support.

• “Campaign” models:

– Scope includes “closed loop” models for use on strategic and operational level problems.

Scoping

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NATO Deliberate Planning Process

OO D/ Plan AWargaming

role


• Need to assess the limits of wargaming and campaign models for CoA analysis:

• Data Sources:– USMC/RAND catalog of wargaming tools and

methods.– SAS-130 survey instrument: based on USMC/RAND.– National (NATO) reach-back.– CAPE repository: for unclassified nuggets.– SMEs and open literature.– MORS Wargaming/M&S community

Data Collection

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• CoA analysis problems– CoA options limited: want to consider broader range– Assess against more than most dangerous and most likely

• Tools (campaign models)– Not the main source of concerns– Some model elements could be updated but…– Key concern: takes too long to set up and run

• Wargaming– Like to do more but

• Not enough trained practitioners• Too little time for CoA analysis

Key Observations to date


• Campaign models:– Employ faster/simpler models (Pro)

• Loss of fidelity / credibility? (Con)

– Else build CoA assessment result repository/Db• Employ big data / data mining techniques

• Wargaming– Employ less resource intensive methods

• Allows faster assessment of CoA options:– Matrix games, RCAT etc.

– Train more practitioners: develop NATO CoA wargaming course

Options under consideration

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• Currently:– Assessing survey data.– Writing the scoping report.– Developing syllabus for a CoA wargaming course.

• 2019:– Scoping report to SAS Panel – March/April 2019.– Await follow-on direction from the SAS Panel

SAS-130 Roadmap


Questions?

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Extras


• ACT – Allied Command for Transformation

• CAA – Center for Army Analysis (U.S.)

• CAN – Canada

• CAPE – Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (U.S.)

• CNGW – Center for Next Generation Warfare (U.S.)

• CoA – Course of Action

• COIN – COunter INsurgency

• CRO – Crisis Response Operations (NATO)

• CZE – Czech Republic

• FIN – Finland

• IDA – Institute for Defence Analysis (U.S.)

• M&S – Modeling and Simulation

• MORS – Military Operations Research Society (U.S.)

• NATO – North Atlantic treaty Organisation

• NCIA – NATO Communications and Information Agency

• NPS – Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

• RTG – Research Task Group

• SACT – Supreme Allied Commander Transformation

• SAS – System Analysis and Studies

• SME – Subject Matter Expert

• SOF – Special Operations Forces

• STO – Science and Technology Organisation (NATO)

• TAP – Technical Activity Proposal

• USMC – United States Marine Corps

Abbreviations

Documents

NATO SAS 130 CoA Analysis in 21st Century - Connections North … · 2019-03-12 · 3/11/19 1 CONNECTIONS NORTH Seminar 16 FEB 2019 UNCLASSIFIED Slide 1 NATO SAS-130 Course of Action