APPLICATION COVER SHEET (2 pages)2005

National Parks EcologicalResearch Fellowship Program

Post-Doctoral Applicant (PI)

Name

Mailing Address

City

State Zip Code

Phone Email

Date or Expected Date of Ph.D.

Sponsoring Faculty/Institution (Co-PI)

Name

Mailing Address

City

State Zip Code

Phone Email

Proposal

Title of Proposal/Research

Project Start Date

Expected Year of Completion

Park Site(s)

Park Manager(s)

Completed applications must be received at ESA Headquarters by 1 October 2005

Abstract (150-200 words):

Signature of Applicant Date

Signature of Sponsoring Faculty/Institution Date

The completed application packet (original and electronic) must be received at the address below no earlierthan September 1, 2005 and no later than October 1, 2005. One complete set of all application materialswith original signatures should be mailed to the address below. Completed original applications include:Application cover sheet with necessary signatures, the proposal, resumes or vitaes, letters of recommendation,and letter of support. An electronic copy (MS Word or pdf) should be emailed to nper@esa.org. Applicantswill be notified that a completed application packet was received. Original application packets should be mailed to:

The Ecological Society of AmericaNational Parks Ecological Research Fellowship Program1707 H Street, NWSuite 400Washington, DC 20006

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Understanding the causes and consequences of landscape heterogeneity is a fundamental goal of contemporary ecology (Levin 1992, Wagner & Fortin 2005). In montane and subalpine forests disturbance by fire is a primary source of this heterogeneity (e.g. Romme 1982, Turner et al. 1997). The characteristic size, frequency, and severity of forest fires, i.e. the fire regime, has immediate and long-term effects on nutrient cycling, structural diversity, population dynamics, and future disturbances (e.g. Veblen et al. 1994, Kean et al. 2002, Kulakowski & Veblen 2002). Thus, understanding the controls of fire regimes and the response of fire to climatic variations is critical for ecologists, global change scientists, and landscape managers. Recent research has documented that fire occurrence in subalpine forests of the southern Rocky Mountains is highly sensitive to climatic variability at inter-annual and decadal time scales (Kipfmueller & Baker 2000, Sherriff et al. 2001, Buechling & Baker 2004, Sibold & Veblen 2005). What remains unknown is the extent to which fire-frequency regimes are sensitive to multi-centennial climatic variations. Sensitivity at these time scales has important implications for understanding modern vegetation in ecosystems with long-lived species and is particularly pertinent to conservation goals that consider the effects of future climatic change (e.g. Sprugel 1991). Documenting multi-centennial scale variations in fire-frequency regimes and inferring their climatic controls is challenging in ecosystems with > 100-year fire return intervals, because it requires more than the 400-500 years of data obtainable in most tree-ring based fire reconstructions. Fortunately, these goals can be achieved with the combination of sediment-charcoal records and a careful sampling design that is attentive to the inherent temporal and spatial variability in fire occurrence. Previous sediment-charcoal studies in subalpine forests have either used low-resolution techniques (Fall 1997a) or relied on a single record to document fire history at landscape spatial scales (e.g. Millspaugh et al. 2000, Brunelle et al. 2005). Neither approach is appropriate for distinguishing between stochastic influences and statistically significant changes in fire frequency over multi-centennial time scales. The proposed research relies on a dense network of lake-sediment records (eight in the 250-km2 study area) to reconstruct fire occurrence over the past 4000 years in four subalpine forest watersheds in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). The array of sites allows inferences at a range of spatial scales into the mechanisms responsible for historical changes in fire-frequency regimes. Specifically, this project takes a well-developed tool and applies it with a novel, statistically-based sampling design to answer two questions. (1) Is there evidence for multi-centennial scale changes in fire-frequency regimes over the past 4000 years, and if so (2) what mechanisms likely explain these changes given their timing and coherence at site (< 1km2), landscape (10-100 km2), and/or regional (200 km2) spatial scales?

1.2. BACKGROUND 1.2.1. Modern vegetation, climate, and fire regime: Potential study lakes are within a 250-km2 region in southern RMNP between 2800-3500 m asl and straddle the Continental Divide (Figure 1). All lakes are within subalpine forests dominated by Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir). Subalpine forests east of the divide are adjacent to lower-elevation Pinus ponderosa forests, which may facilitate fire spread (Sibold et al. 2005). Long, cold winters and short, warm summers characterize the regional climate, with most effective precipitation falling as snow in winter and early spring (Western Regional Climate center,

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 2

www.wrcc.dri.edu). Summers are affected by monsoonal flow from the Gulfs of Mexico and California, which leads to a precipitation peak in early August and a dampening of the fire season (Cohen 1976, cited in Buechling & Baker 2004). Snowpack is slightly deeper and longer lasting on the west versus east side of the Continental Divide. The fire regime in the study region is characterized by large, stand-replacing fires every 150-300+ years (Veblen et al. 1994, Kipfmueller & Baker 2000, Buechling & Baker 2004). Little evidence supports a strong influence of topography or fuel characteristics on fire occurrence. Rather, the occurrence of large fires statistically relates to drought and synoptic-scale climatic patterns associated with the La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Sherriff et al. 2001, Buechling & Baker 2004, Sibold & Veblen 2005). 1.2.2. Late Holocene Vegetation and Climate: Modern climate and subalpine forests in the Colorado Rockies were likely in place by 2-3 k ybp, reflecting a gradual cooling and moistening since the mid Holocene (Fall 1997b, Whitlock et al. 2002). However, two lines of evidence suggest the climate of the past several centuries, when our knowledge of subalpine forests is strongest, may have been uniquely unfavorable for burning. First, a drought history reconstructed from historical documents, tree rings, archaeological remains, and lake sediments suggests that droughts in the central United States during the past several centuries were shorter and less severe than droughts from ~ 2-0.5 k ybp (Woodhouse & Overpeck 1998). Second, the period ~ 600-100 ybp, termed the “Little Ice Age” (LIA) in the European Alps, is recognized in the Colorado Front Range and southern Rockies as a period of colder and drier climate relative to periods before and after (Davis 1988, Hessl & Baker 1997, Salzer & Kipfmueller 2005). It follows that the patterns of fire observed in subalpine forests over the past 500 years could be poor estimates of natural fire regimes under future or even modern conditions. This study will directly address this possibility and assess the sensitivity of subalpine forest fire-frequency regimes to late Holocene environmental change. 1.2.3. Macroscopic Charcoal as a Tool for Reconstructing Fire Regimes: The analytical techniques for inferring fire frequencies from macroscopic charcoal records are based on assumptions of charcoal production, transport, and deposition that have varying degrees of theoretical and empirical support (Clark 1988, Clark & Patterson 1997, Whitlock et al. 1997, Blackford 2000, Ohlson & Tryterud 2000, Gavin et al. 2003, Lynch et al. 2004, Higuera et al. 2005). The limitations of macroscopic charcoal analysis stem from the inherent nature of fire regimes, variations in charcoal taphonomy, and the variable quality of sediment records. Small or low-severity fires may generate insufficient charcoal to leave an identifiable peak in a sediment record, and fires closely spaced in time may create peaks that cannot be reliably distinguished. Sediment mixing and slow sediment accumulation rates also reduce the ability to identify

Figure 1. Sampling regions (black lines) and potential study lakes (red).

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 3

individual fires by obscuring charcoal peaks. However, if sediment accumulation rates are high,and fires are large, intense and infrequent (as in subalpine forests), these limitations are minimized and distinguishing individual fires should be possible. While the spatial scale represented by macroscopic charcoal records is inherently ambiguous due to the variability in airborne charcoal dispersal, it is nevertheless critical to consider spatial scale when designing a fire history study. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that macroscopic charcoal records most accurately represent fire occurrence within ~ 500 m of a lake (Clark 1988, Gavin et al. 2003, Higuera et al. 2004, Lynch et al. 2004). Thus, the sediment in a single lake records fire occurrence for a restricted area (< 1 km2) but over a long time period. Previous studies have generally relied on one sediment record to interpret fire history for an entire landscape or region. This may be appropriate for making multi-millennial scale interpretation of major shifts in fire frequency, but it is insufficient for examining patterns at finer temporal scales, because with only a few fires per millennium at each lake, moderate changes in fire frequency cannot readily be distinguished from stochastic variation. Given the inherent spatial and temporal variability of fire regimes, it follows that spatial replication is required to detect changes at sub-millennial time scales. This study relies upon pooling fire return intervals from multiple sites to quantify fire-frequency regimes at poorly understood multi-centennial time scales, smaller than possible in previous sediment-charcoal studies but larger than possible with tree-ring records (see section 1.3.5).

1.3. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The PI has used sediment charcoal records in his masters research in mixed-severity fire regimes of the Pacific Northwest (Higuera et al. 2005) and doctoral research in stand-replacing fire regimes of interior Alaska. He organized a workshop on the use of charcoal records at the 2005 meeting of the Ecological Society of America (www.students.washington.edu/phiguera). The CO-PI (Whitlock) has extensive experience reconstructing fire history using these techniques. 1.3.1. Why Rocky Mountain National Park? Subalpine forests within RMNP have been examined in one of the largest fire history studies to date (Sibold et al. 2005), providing an unprecedented understanding of the fire regimes in the study area over the past 400 years and an opportunity to compare the uppermost sediments at each site with tree-ring dated fires (see section 1.3.6). RMNP is also attractive because of an abundance of small, deep lakes that are well suited for paleoecological studies (Reasoner & Jordy 2000, Wolfe et al. 2003). Finally, park resources including staff, volunteers, housing, and baseline biological and physical datasets make conducting the proposed research in RMNP extreemly efficient. 1.3.2. Site selection and spatial density: Four watersheds, two east and two west of the Continental Divide, were selected for study based on previous research done by Sibold et al. (2005) and the availability of lakes within Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa forests (Figure 1). This spatial array facilitates inferences into the spatial scales (from sub-watershed to regional) at which the controls of fire frequency regimes operate and change. From a list of 18 potential lakes, eight study lakes will be selected after field reconnaissance and in coordination with RMNP staff. Lake-sampling density is based on sample-size power analyses conducted for the statistical test used to compare fire-frequency regimes (see section 1.3.4). Relationships between statistical power and sample size involve multiple factors, including the magnitude of change between any two fire-frequency regimes and the time over which these regimes exist. This study

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 4

is designed to achieve a statistical power greater than 80% (i.e. > 80% chance of detecting a change in fire-frequency regimes if one exists), when comparing fire-frequency regimes where mean fire return intervals (mFRI) differ by > 50% over 500-yr periods. For example, if four of the eight sites displayed a change in fire-frequency regimes from a 100 to 200 yr mFRI in two 500-yr periods, there is a > 80% chance that this change would be detected (Thoman & Bain 1969, Higuera in prep.). Larger changes in fire-frequency regimes (in magnitude or space) would be detectable at smaller temporal scales and/or with greater statistical power. 1.3.3. Chronological control: Sediment chronologies will be based on 210Pb dating (Flett Research Ltd., Manitoba, CA: www.flettresearch.ca) and AMS 14C dates on terrestrial macrofossils, charcoal fragments or concentrated Picea pollen (Brown et al. 1989) by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry. One AMS date will be obtained per 1000 years of sediment accumulation, with greater resolution if accumulation rates suggests finer-scale changes. 1.3.4. Pollen analysis: Attributing changes in fire regimes to climatic controls requires knowledge of regional climate history and assumes that vegetational influences are unimportant. To test assumptions about the role of vegetation, sediment samples of 1 cm3 will be prepared for pollen analysis according to standard procedures (Faegri & Iversen 1975). Samples spaced at 250-500 year intervals, dependent on patterns of change observed in each core, will be counted at 400-1000 X magnification to a terrestrial pollen sum > 300 grains. 1.3.5. Macroscopic charcoal analysis: Sediment cores will be sliced at 0.25-0.5-cm intervals (10-20-yr per sample). Subsamples of 3-5 cm3 will be washed through a 150-µm sieve, bleached, and charcoal will be identified at 10-40 X magnification (Higuera et al. 2005). 1.3.6. Quantitative treatment of charcoal data: Charcoal concentrations will be converted to charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) based on sediment chronologies. CHARs will be separated into peak and background components, and a threshold will be selected to identify peaks related to “local” fires based on comparisons with documented fires (Sibold et al. 2005) and a sensitivity analysis (Clark et al. 1996, Gavin et al. 2003). Identified charcoal peaks will be treated as estimates of local fire occurrence, and for each site graphical methods will be used to evaluatetemporal changes in fire frequency (Johnson & Gutsell 1994). Once distinct fire-frequency regimes are estimated, Weibull models will be fit to the fire return intervals (FRIs) within the identified time period using maximum likelihood techniques (Clark 1989, Johnson & Gutsell 1994). Weibull distributions are commonly used to describe the frequency component of fire regimes, and they facilitate more powerful statistical tests than other methods (Johnson & Gutsell 1994, Higuera in prep.). Individual distributions will be compared both within and between sites with a likelihood-ratio to test the null hypothesis that each distribution is identical (Thoman & Bain 1969, Johnson & Gutsell 1994). Statistically indistinct distributions will be combined to provide more powerful comparisons between time periods. Finally, the probability of Type I and II error will be used to evaluate the possibility of changes in fire frequency regimes across space and time. 1.3.7. Inferring Mechanisms of Change: Inferences into the controls of fire-frequency regimes will be based upon evidence of the spatial scale of documented changes (i.e. site, watershed, or entire study region) and upon comparisons of these changes to paleo records of environmental variability. For example, if no site has evidence of change in fire-frequency regimes over the past 4 k years, this would suggest that subalpine forest fire-frequency regimes are insensitive to

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 5

previously documented environmental change. On the other hand, if all sites show similar directional changes in fire-frequency regimes at some time(s) during the past 4 k years with little change in vegetation, this would provide strong evidence for changes in the large-scale controls on fire-frequency regimes, such as a weakening of the summer monsoon in the late Holocene and a shift to cool and/or dry conditions ca. 2-3 k ybp (Fall 1997a, Vierling 1998, Whitlock et al. 2002) and/or changes in cultural practices. Finally, a subset of sites could exhibit similar changes in fire-frequency regimes at a variety of spatial scales (east vs. west of the Divide or 1-3 lakes therein), suggesting that local factors (e.g. fire spread from lower elevations east of the Divide) were the dominant controls of fire-frequency regimes over the late Holocene. 1.3.8. Timetable of proposed research: Tasks

Sum. ‘06

Fall ‘06

Winter ‘06-’07

Spring ‘07

Sum. ‘07

Fall ‘07

Winter ‘07-’08

Spring ‘08

Recon. and final site selection X X Sediment coring 6 lakes 2 lakes Core subsampling 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes Charcoal prep. and counting 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes Pollen prep. and counting 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes Chronology development 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes 2 lakes Fire history data analysis X X X X X Synthesis with pollen data X X X X Write up results for publication X X X Data archival & transfer to NPS X

1.4. SIGNIFICANCE This research will contribute to our understanding of subalpine forest ecology by documenting fire-frequency regimes and their sensitivity to environmental change at previously neglected time scales. The scope of the proposed study and its overlap with the robust tree-ring based fire historyof Sibold et al. (2005) will also lead to an improved understanding of sediment charcoal as records of fire history and to methodological advances in the field of charcoal analysis. Landscape managers within and outside RMNP will find the results of this work particularly relevant for fire and vegetation management. Specifically, this study will improve manager’s understanding of the range of variability in fire occurrence within RMNP and the sensitivity of fire regimes to past climatic change. As such, it will help anticipate potential impacts of future change on subalpine ecosystems. Long-term records of fire history will also aid archaeological and paleoenvironmental work within and outside of RMNP. Understanding the patterns and potential causes of variability in past environments remains one of the best foundations from which to anticipate future change, an increasingly important societal goal in light of growing populations, resource use, and evidence of global climate change. The societal importance of this research will be disseminated to the general public through outreachand interpretive programs within RMNP and through future teaching opportunities of the PI (see section 4).

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2. REFERENCES CITED (PI and CO-PI authored papers in bold)

Blackford, J.J. 2000. Charcoal fragments in surface samples following a fire and the implications for interpretation of subfossil charcoal data. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 164:33-42.

Brown, T., Nelson, D.E., Mathewes, R.W., Vogel, J.S., & Southon, J.R. 1989. Radiocarbon dating of pollen by accelerator mass spectrometry. Quaternary Research 32:205-12.

Brunelle, A., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P., & Kipfmueller, K. 2005. Holocene fire and vegetation along environmental gradients in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Quaternary Science Reviews in press.

Buechling, A., & Baker, W.L. 2004. A fire history for tree rings in a high-elevation forest of Rocky Mountain National Park. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34:1259-73.

Clark, J.S. 1988. Particle motion and the theory of charcoal analysis: source area, transport, deposition, and sampling. Quaternary Research 30:67-80.

---. 1989. Ecological disturbance as a renewal process: theory and application to fire history. Oikos 56:17-30.

Clark, J.S., & Patterson, W.A. 1997. Background and local charcoal in sediments: scales of fire evidence in the paleorecord. Pages 23-48 in J.S. Clark, H. Cachier, J.G. Goldammer, &B.J. Stocks, editors. Sediment Records of Biomass Burning and Global Change. Springer, New York.

Clark, J.S., Royall, P.D., & Chumbley, C. 1996. The role of fire during climate change in an eastern deciduous forest at Devil's Bathtub, New York. Ecology 77:2148-66.

Cohen, J.D. 1976. Analysis of Colorado mountain fire weather. Masters. Colorado State University, Fort Collins.

Davis, P.T. 1988. Holocene glacier fluctuation in the American Cordillera. Quaternary Science Reviews 7:129-57.

Faegri, K., & Iversen, J. 1975. Textbook of Pollen Analysis. Hafner Press, Copenhagen. Fall, P.L. 1997a. Fire history and composition of the subalpine forest of western Colorado during the

Holocene. Journal of Biogeography 24:309-25. ---. 1997b. Timberline fluctuations and late Quaternary paleoclimates in the Southern Rocky Mountains,

Colorado. Geological Society of America Bulletin 109:1306-20. Gavin, D.G., Brubaker, L.B., & Lertzman, K.P. 2003. An 1800-year record of the spatial and temporal

distribution of fire from the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33:573-86.

Hessl, A.E., & Baker, W.L. 1997. Spruce-fir growth form changes in the forest-tundra ecotone of Rocky Mountain National park, Colorado, USA. Ecography 20:356-67.

Higuera, P.E. in prep. Detecting changes in fire-frequency regimes: sample size and statistical power. Higuera, P.E., Gavin, D.G., & Peters, M.E. 2004. When does a charcoal peak represent a fire? Insights

from a simple statistical model. Pages 220 in 89th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon.

Higuera, P.E., Sprugel, D.G., & Brubaker, L.B. 2005. Reconstructing fire regimes with charcoal form small-hollow sediments: a calibration with tree-ring records of fire. The Holocene 15:238-51.

Johnson, E.A., & Gutsell, S.L. 1994. Fire frequency models, methods and interpretations. Advances in Ecological Research 25:239-87.

Kean, R.E., Ryan, K.C., Veblen, T.T., Allen, C.D., Logan, J.A., & Hawkes, B. 2002. The cascading effects of fire exclusion in Rocky Mountain ecosystems. Pages 133-52 in J.S. Baron, editor. Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective. Island Press, Washington, DC.

Kipfmueller, K., & Baker, W.L. 2000. A fire history of a subalpine forest in south-eastern Wyoming, USA. Journal of Biogeography 27:71-85.

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 7

Kulakowski, D., & Veblen, T.T. 2002. Influences of fire history and topography on the pattern of a severe wind blowdown in a Colorado subalpine forest. Journal of Ecology 90:806-16.

Levin, S.A. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology 73:1943-67. Lynch, J.A., Clark, J.S., & Stocks, B.J. 2004. Charcoal production, dispersal and deposition from the Fort

Providence experimental fire: Interpreting fire regimes from charcoal records in boreal forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34:1642-56.

Millspaugh, S.H., Whitlock, C., & Bartlein, P. 2000. Variations in fire frequency and climate over the past 17000 yr in central Yellowstone National Park. Geology 28:211-4.

Ohlson, M., & Tryterud, E. 2000. Interpretation of the charcoal record in forest soils: forest fires and their production and deposition of macroscopic charcoal. The Holocene 10:519-25.

Reasoner, M.A., & Jordy, M.A. 2000. Rapid response of alpine timberline vegetation to the Younger Dryas climate oscillation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Geology 28:51-4.

Romme, W.H. 1982. Fire and landscape diversity in subalpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Ecological Monographs 52:199-221.

Salzer, M.W., & Kipfmueller, K.F. 2005. Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial time scale from tree-rings in the southern Colorado plateau, U.S.A. Climatic Change 70:465-87.

Sherriff, R.L., Veblen, T.T., & Sibold, J.S. 2001. Fire history in high elevation subalpine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecoscience 8:369-80.

Sibold, J.S., & Veblen, T.T. 2005. Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range to interannual and multi-decadal scale climatic variation. Pages 27-8 in Fire History and Climate Synthesis in Western North America, Flagstaff, AZ.

Sibold, J.S., Veblen, T.T., & Gonzalez, M.E. 2005. Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park. Journal of Biogeography in press

Sprugel, D.G. 1991. Disturbance, equilibrium, and environmental variability: what is "natural" vegetation in a changing environment? Biological Conservation 58:1-18.

Thoman, D.R., & Bain, L.J. 1969. Two sample tests in the Weibull distribution. Technometrics 11:805-15. Turner, M.G., Romme, W.H., Gardner, R.H., & Hargrove, W.W. 1997. Effects of fire size and pattern on

early succession in Yellowstone National Park. Ecological Monographs 67:411-33. Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Nel, E.M., Kitzberger, T., Reid, R., & Villalba, R. 1994. Disturbance regime

and disturbance interactions in a Rocky Mountain subalpine forest. Journal of Ecology 82:125-35. Vierling, L.A. 1998. Palynological evidence for late- and postglacial environmental change in central

Colorado. Quaternary Reseach 49:222-32. Wagner, H.H., & Fortin, M. 2005. Spatial analysis of landscapes: concepts and statistics. Ecology 86:1975-

87. Whitlock, C., Bradbury, J.P., & Millspaugh, S.H. 1997. Controls on charcoal representation in lake

sediments: case studies from Yellowstone National Park and northwestern Minnesota. Pages 367-86 in J.S. Clark, editor. Sediment records of biomass burning and global change. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Whitlock, C., Reasoner, M.A., & Key, C.H. 2002. Paleoenvironmental history of the Rocky Mountain region during the past 20,000 years. Pages 41-57 in J.S. Baron, editor. Rocky Mountain futures: an ecological perspective. Island Press, Washington DC.

Wolfe, A.P., A.C., V.G., & Baron, J.S. 2003. Recent ecological and biogeochemical changes in alpine lakes of Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA): a response to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Geobiology 1:153-68.

Woodhouse, C.A., & Overpeck, J.T. 1998. 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79:2693-714.

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 8

3. BUDGET AND BUDGET JUSTIFICATION

3.1. Budget P. Higuera NPER Proposal Budget

Chronologies

Study Regions

Lakes per

regionyrs / lake

14C dates / 1000 years

$ / 14C date

210Pb samples/

site

$ / 210Pb sample

Total Costs, 14C dating

Total Costs, 210 Pb dating

Total costs, chronologies

2 4 4000 1 $400 12 $48 $12,800 $4,608 $17,408

Paleoenvironmental proxies: lab supplies (chemicals, containers, etc.)

pollen charcoal Total costs, pollen

Total costs,

charcoal

Total costs, paleo. proxies

years / sample

$ / sample

years / sample

$ / sample

250 $8 15 $2 $1,024 $4,267 $5,291

Student hourly for core processing and charcoal sample preparation

hours / core $ / hour Total costs,

hourly work

200 $11 $17,600

Field work: transportation, per diem and student assistance

yrs. days / yrfield

assistant per diem

field assistant daily pay

pack trains

($/day)

Total Costs, rental

vehicle

Total Costs, field

assistance

Total costs, pack

trains

Total costs, field work

2 14 $25 $100 $200 $2,000 $3,500 $5,600 $11,100

Field work: equipment

Total costs, field

equipment$1,000

Misc. costs: publications, office supplies, etc.Total Misc.

costs$2,000

PI's salary and fringe benefits

Total Fringe Benefits Total salary Total stipend

$ per year

fringe benefits (30%) $15,139 $50,463 $65,601

$25,231 $7,569

TOTAL RESEARCH COSTS FOR TWO YEARS: $54,399TOTAL COSTS FOR TWO YEARS: $120,000

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 9

3.2. Budget Justification: Chronological control is paramount for high-resolution paleo-fire studies. One 14C date per 1000 years is a minimum resolution required to assure accurate modeling of sediment accumulation rates over the past 4000 years. Although LLNL is more expensive than other 14C-dating facilities, the PI has collaborated with Dr. Thomas Brown during his dissertation research and chooses LLNL because of its one-month turn around time, ability to date small samples, and the intellectual participation of Brown. 210Pb dating is necessary to make inferences into 20th century patterns of variation and for comparing the charcoal records to tree-ring records of fire. The PI has experience with Flett Research Ltd. from his MS work. Costs for pollen and charcoal analysis cover lab supplies (chemicals, vials, etc.). Hourly lab work is necessary for the timely analysis of the sediment records and will have the added benefit of exposing undergraduate students to scientific research. Field work costs cover transportation to RMNP, housing, transportation to field sites, and food for one field assistant. Field assistance may also come from Park volunteers, who logged over 6,500 hours last year alone. Housing is available for Park researchers for minimal costs ($5/night), and the trail crew has a pack train that may minimize costs of field transportation (Terry Terrell, RMNP Science Officer, personal communication). The majority of lake-coring equipment will come for the CO-PI’s existing equipment supplies at Montana State University. Additional field equipment and/or repairs may be needed and are covered by a $1000 allotment. Miscellaneous costs cover publication fees, maps, office supplies, photo copies, phone calls, etc. Finally, the PI’s salary will cover travel costs to the field and to annual meetings.

4. PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Communications with Terry Terrell, Science Officer at RMNP, give confidence that the research can be conducted in a manner consistent with RMNP permit guidelines (see attached letter of support). I have collected lake-sediment samples in Gates of the Arctic (AK) and North Cascades (WA) National Park and am sensitive and attuned to National Park research and camping protocols. The CO-PI also has extensive experience conducting research in National Parks. The field logistics of collecting lake sediments are flexible, and every effort will be made to minimize the negative impacts of this research on Park resources and the experiences of Park visitors. Formal dissemination of research results will take place at national/international meetings and through publications in peer-reviewed journals. The CO-PI has a lengthy publication history, and collaborating with her will help in all intellectual components of the proposed work. Presentations to Park staff will be made at the Science Conference symposium, which takes place every other year in RMNP. Public dissemination will occur through participation in Science Days, a twice-a-year outreach program put on by RMNP (Terry Terrell, personal communication). I will also work with Park staff to provide any information and materials of interest for interpretive purposes. All data collected from this work will be made available to RMNP and to the scientific community through national and international databases (e.g. North American Pollen Database, International Multiproxy Paleofire Database), and sediment cores will be archived through the University of Minnesota Limnological Research Center’s LacCore facility (www.lrc.geo.umn.edu).

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Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 11

5. BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES Philip Higuera

ADDRESS: College of Forest Resources PHONE: 206-543-5777 Box 352100 FAX: 206-543-3254 University of Washington E-MAIL: phiguera@u.washington.edu Seattle, WA 98195 WEB SITE: www.students.washington.edu/phiguera EDUCATION CURRENT Ph.D. Candidate, Division of Ecosystem Science, College of Forest Resources, University of

Washington, Seattle, WA. Advisor: Dr. Linda Brubaker. Defense date: June 2006 M.S. 2002

Division of Ecosystem Science, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. Advisors: Dr. Linda Brubaker and Dr. Douglas Sprugel

B.A. 1998 Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT: magna cum laude; Biology, High Honors, Environmental Studies-Geology, High Honors. Thesis advisors: Dr. Andrea Lloyd and Dr. Grant Meyer

RESEARCH EXPERIENCE 2005-2006 Research Assistant for Dr. Linda Brubaker, Paleoecology Lab, College of Forest Resources, University

of Washington 2003-2005 National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow, Paleoecology Lab, College of Forest

Resources, University of Washington 2001-2003 Research Assistant for Dr. Linda Brubaker, Paleoecology Lab, College of Forest Resources University

of Washington 2000-2001 National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow, Paleoecology Lab, College of Forest

Resources, University of Washington 1999-2000 Research Assistant for Dr. Linda Brubaker, and Dr. Douglas Sprugel, Paleoecoloyg Lab, College of

Forest Resources, University of Washington 1998-1999 Research Intern for Dr. Eric Menges, Plant Ecology Lab, Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, FL 1998 Research Assistant and Field Crew Leader for Dr. Andrea Lloyd and Dr. Chris Fastie, Forest History

Lab, Middlebury College TEACHING EXPERIENCE 2004 Field-trip leader, Department of Biology, University of Washington 2002- present

Guest Lecturer, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington

2002 Teaching Assistant, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington: Forest Community Ecology (graduate-level course)

2000-2001 Undergraduate thesis co-advisor, University of Washington 1997 Teaching Assistant, Middlebury College: Introduction to Ecology HONORS AND AWARDS 2005 2nd place, Edward S. Deevey Award for Excellence in Paleoecology, presented to the best student

presentation in paleoecology at the Ecological Society of America Meeting, Montreal, Quebec. 2004 2nd place, Edward S. Deevey Award for Excellence in Paleoecology, presented to the best student

presentation in paleoecology at the Ecological Society of America Meeting, Portland, OR. 2003 1st place, student poster competition, Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) open science

meeting, Seattle, WA 2001 2nd place, Edward S. Deevey Award for Excellence in Paleoecology, presented to the best student

presentation in paleoecology at the Ecological Society of America Meeting, Madison, WI. 2000 National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship: provides three years of graduate training,

including tuition wavier and stipend. 2000 Xi Sigma Pi Forestry Honor Society, University of Washington 1999 Honorable mention, National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship competition. 1998 Elbert C. Cole award for outstanding performance in the Biology department, Middlebury College. PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS AND SERVICES 2005 Co-organizer and leader of a workshop on reconstructing fire regimes with sediment charcoal records

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 12

at the Ecological Society of America meeting: www.students.washington.edu/phiguera/charws/ 2004- International Association for Landscape Ecology, US Regional Association 2000- Ecological Society of America Reviewer Canadian Journal of Forest Research, National Science Foundation PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS Higuera, P. E., Brubaker, L. B., and Sprugel, D. G. 2005. Reconstructing fire regimes with charcoal from small

hollows: a calibration with tree-ring records of fire. The Holocene, 15: 238-251. Hu, F. S., Brubaker, L. B., Gavin, D. G., Higuera, P. E., Lynch, J. A., Rupp, T. S., and Tinner, W. 2005. How

climate and vegetation influence the fire regime of the Alaskan Boreal Biome: the Holocene perspective. in press Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Trombulak, S. C., Higuera, P. E., and DesMeules, M. 2001. Population trends of wintering bats in Vermont.

Northeastern Naturalist, 8: 51-62. SELECTED PUBLISHED ABSTRACTS FROM ORAL OR POSTER PRESENTATIONS Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, P. M. Anderson, F. S. Hu, B. Clegg, T. Brown, and S. Rupp. 2005. The relative

importance of vegetational vs. climatic controls on post-glacial fire regimes in the southern Brooks Range, Alaska. in Abstracts of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Montreal, Quebec. (talk)

Higuera, P.E., L.B. Brubaker, P.M. Anderson, B. Clegg, F.S. Hu, T. Brown, S. Rupp, 2005. Vegetational and climatic influences on fire regimes in the southern Brooks Range, Alaska. Page 17 in Abstracts from Fire and Climate Synthesis in Western North America, Flagstaff, AZ. (poster)

Higuera, P.E., M.E. Peters, D.G. Gavin, 2005. Understanding the origin of sediment-charcoal records with a simulation model. Page 18 in Abstracts from Fire and Climate Synthesis in Western North America, Flagstaff, AZ. (talk)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, P. M. Anderson, F. S. Hu, B. Clegg, T. Brown, and S. Rupp. 2004. Paleo Investigations of Climate and Ecosystem Archives (PICEA): Holocene climate-vegetation-fire interactions in the southern Brooks Range, Alaska. Page 161 in Abstracts of the Bjerknes Centenary: Climate Change in High Latitudes, Bergen, Norway. (poster)

Higuera, P. E., D. G. Gavin, and M. E. Peters. 2004. When does a charcoal peak represent a fire? Insights from a simple statistical model. Page 220 in Abstracts of the 89th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Portland, Oregon. (talk)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, P. M. Anderson, F. S. Hu, B. Clegg, T. Brown, and S. Rupp. 2004. Paleo Investigations of Climate and Ecosystem Archives (PICEA): Holocene climate-vegetation-fire interactions in the southern Brooks Range, Alaska. Page 87 in Abstracts of the 12th Annual Science Meeting of the International Boreal Forest Research Association, Fairbanks, Alaska. (poster)

Higuera, P. E., M. E. Peters, and D. G. Gavin. 2004. Holocene fire-history records from lake sediments: improving accuracy and precision through quantitative modeling. Page 96 in Abstracts of the 19th Annual Symposium of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, US Regional Association, Las Vegas, Nevada. Invited presentation for Special Session: “Scaling laws in fire regimes: moving landscape fire history into the 21st century” (talk)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, P. M. Anderson, F. S. Hu, B. Clegg, T. Brown, and S. Rupp. 2004. Holocene vegetation, fire, and climate history from the southern Brooks Range, Alaska. Page 73 in Abstracts of the 34th International Arctic Workshop. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, Colorado. (talk)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, P. M. Anderson, F. S. Hu, B. Clegg, T. Brown, and S. Rupp. 2003. Paleo Investigations of Climate and Ecosystem Archives (PICEA): Holocene fire and vegetation history from Ruppert Lake, Brooks Range, Alaska. Page 170 in Abstracts of the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Open Science Meeting, Seattle, Washington. (poster)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, and D. G. Sprugel. 2002. Reconstructing fire regimes with small hollows: A calibration with tree-ring records. in Abstracts of the 87th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Tucson, Arizona. (talk)

Higuera, P. E., L. B. Brubaker, and D. G. Sprugel. 2001. Identifying disturbance signatures in small-hollow sediments: the potential for long-term, high-resolution forest history records. Page 292 in Abstracts of the 86th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Madison, Wisconsin. (poster)

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 13

Cathy Whitlock Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT 59717

PROFESSIONAL PREPARATION Colorado College Geology BA, 1975 University of Washington Geological Sciences M.S. 1979; Ph.D. 1983 Trinity College Dublin Quaternary paleoecology NATO Postdoctoral Fellowship 1983-84

APPOINTMENTS 2004-present Full Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University 2000-2004 Full Professor and Department Head, Department of Geography, University of Oregon Courtesy Professor, Department of Geosciences, University of Oregon. 1995-2000 Full Professor, Department of Geography, University of Oregon 1990-1995 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Oregon 1988-1990 Assistant Professor, Department of Geology and Earth Science, University of Pittsburgh;

Associate Curator, Carnegie Institute, Museum of Natural History 1984-1988 Assistant Curator, Carnegie Institute, Museum of Natural History

SELECTED RECENT PUBLICATIONS Whitlock, C., 2004. Land management: Fire, climate, and landscape response. Nature 432, 28-29. Whitlock, C., Shafer, S.H., and Marlon, J. 2003. The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping

past and future fire regimes in the northwestern U.S., and the implications for ecosystem management. Forest Ecology and Management 178: 5-21.

Whitlock, C. 2004. Variations in Holocene fire frequency: a view from the western United States: Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 101B: 65-77.

Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Markgraf, V., and Ashworth, A.C. 2001. The mid-latitudes of North and South America during the Last Glacial Maximum and early Holocene: Similar paleoclimatic sequences despite differing large-scale controls. In Interhemispheric Climate Linkages; Present and Past Interhemispheric Climate Linkages in the Americas and their Societal Effects (V. Markgraf, ed.), p 391-416. Academic Press.

Whitlock, C., and Anderson, R.S. 2003. Fire history reconstructions based on sediment records from lakes and wetlands. In Fire and Climatic Change in the Americas (T.T. Veblen, W.L. Baker, G. Montenegro, and T.W. Swetnam, eds.), pp. 3-31. Ecological Studies, vol. 160. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Whitlock, C., and Bartlein, P.J. 2004. Holocene fire activity as a record of past environmental change. In Developments in Quaternary Science Volume 1 (A. Gillespie and S.C. Porter, eds.), pp. 479-489. Elsevier, Amsterdam.

Brunelle, A., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., and Kipfmuller, K. 2005. Postglacial fire, climate, and vegetation history along an environmental gradient in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.

Shafer, S.H., Bartlein, P.J., and Whitlock, C. 2005. Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of global environmental change in mountainous regions. Global change and mountain regions: an overview of current knowledge (U.M. Huber, H.K.M. Bugmann, M.A. Reasoner, eds), pp. 21-31. Kluwer.

Millspaugh, S.H., Whitlock, C., and Bartlein, P.J. 2000. Variations in fire frequency and climate over the last 17,000 years in central Yellowstone National Park. Geology 28: 211-214.

Whitlock, C. and Larsen, C.P.S. 2002. Charcoal as a Fire Proxy. In Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments: Volume 2 Biological Techniques and Indicators (J.P. Smol, H.J.B. Birks, and W. M. Last, eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

Overpeck, J.T., Whitlock, C., and Huntley, B. 2003. Terrestrial biosphere dynamics in the climate

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 14

system: past and future. In Paleoclimate, Global Change, and the Future (K.D. Alverson, R.S. Bradley and T. Pedersen, eds), pp. 81-103. Springer, Berlin.

Whitlock, C., and Grigg, L.D. 1999. Paleoecological Evidence of Milankovitch and Sub-Milankovitch Climate Variations in the Western U.S. during the late Quaternary. In Mechanisms of millennial-scale global climate change (R.S. Webb and P.U. Clark, editors). American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph 112: 227-241.

Whitlock, C., and Bartlein, P.J. 1997. Vegetation and climate change in northwest America during the past 125 kyr. Nature 388: 57-61.

SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES Professional activities: Past President of American Quaternary Association; Delegate to the U.S. National

Committee for the International Union for Quaternary Research; Executive Committee of AAAS Pacific Division; PAGES PEP1: Member of Program Committee for the 1997 PEP Science Meeting; Advisory Boards, NOAA Paleoclimatology Databases (North American Pollen Database and International Multiproxy Paleofire Database (helped establish and obtain funding for IMPD); IGBP Fast-track past fire regimes initiative (co-leader); Science Advisory Board member, Centro de Estudios del Cuaternario de Fuego-Patagonia y Antarctica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas Chile

Current editorial board service: Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology; Palaeclimatology, Palaeoecology, and Palaeogeography; Quaternary Research. Past Editorial Board Member of Geology

Curricular and popular science educational activities: Participation in Distance Learning Course on Vegetation History of Pacific Northwest (with Oregon State University); development of materials for Environmental Change Web Page (http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange)

Academic and disciplinary service: Department Head; member of AAG Biogeography Specialty Group RECENT COLLABORATORS: K.D. Alversen (PAGES Office, Bern); A. Ashworth (North Dakota

State Univ.); J. Barron (U.S. Geological Survey); P. Bartlein (Univ. Oregon); W.R. Baker (Univ. Wyoming), H.J.B. Birks (Univ. Bergen); M. Blinnikov (St. Cloud State Univ.); R.S. Bradley (Univ. Massachusetts); A. Brunelle (Univ. Utah); J.P. Bradbury (U.S. Geological Survey); A.J. Busacca (Washington State Univ.); W.E. Dean (U.S. Geological Survey); S.C. Fritz (Univ. Nebraska); A. Gillespie (Univ. Washington); L.D. Grigg (Dartmouth Coll.); B. Huntley (Univ. Durham); A.P. Kershaw (Monash Univ.); C. Key (Glacier National Park); C. Long (Univ. Oregon); V. Markgraf (Univ. Colorado), A. Mix (Oregon State Univ.); P.A. Morgan (Univ. Idaho); J.T. Overpeck (Univ. Arizona); T. Pedersen (Univ. British Columbia); S. Porter (Univ. Washington); M. Reasoner (MRI, Bern); A. Sarna-Wojcicki (USGS); S.L. Shafer (USGS); C.N. Skinner (USDA Forest Service); T. Spies (USDA Forest Service); L. Stevens (Univ. Nebraska); F.J. Swanson (USDA Forest Service); T.W. Swetman (Univ. Arizona); T.R. Vale (Univ. Wisconsin); T. Veblen (Univ. Colorado)

GRADUATE AND POST-DOCTORAL ADVISORS: E.B. Leopold (Univ. Washington, graduate);

W.A. Watts (Trinity College, post-doc) GRADUATE STUDENTS ADVISEES: E. Berkley (Univ. Oregon); M. Blinnikov (St. Cloud State); C.

Briles (Univ. Oregon); A. Brunelle (Univ. Utah); H. Freifeld (Univ. Florida); J. Gardner (Univ. Oregon); K. Hakala (Univ. Pittsburgh); K. Jacobs (Montana State Univ.); M. Knox (Univ. Oregon); L. Kouwenberg (Univ. Utrecht); C.J. Long (Univ. Oregon); J. Marlon (Univ. Oregon); S. Millspaugh (Univ. Oregon); T. Minckley (Univ. Indiana); C.J. Mock (Univ. South Carolina); J.A. Mohr (Oregon State Univ.); L.D. Grigg (Dartmouth College); T. Minckley (Univ. Oregon); C.A. Pearl (Oregon State Univ.); S. Shafer (U.S. Geological Survey); B. Sherrod (Univ. Washington); M. Walsh (Univ. Oregon)

POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWS: Andrea Brunelle, Colin Long

Higuera: National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship 15

6. ADDITIONAL REFERENCES

Douglas G. Sprugel Professor, Forest EcologyCollege of Forest Resources University of Washington Box 352100 Seattle, Washington 98195-2100 Voice: (206) 543-2040; FAX: (206) 543-3254 E-mail: sprugel@u.washington.edu Feng Sheng Hu Associate Professor, Plant Biology, Geology, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and The Environmental Council 265 Morrill Hall 505 S. Goodwin Ave University of Illinois Urbana, IL 61801 Voice: (217) 244-2982; FAX: (217) 244-7246 E-mail: fshu@life.uiuc.edu