National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

14 May 2019

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

14 May 2019

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What’s Ahead

Welcome• Rachel McGuire - Auburn University Water Resources Center

Speakers

» David Zierden - Florida Climate Center; FSU» Paul Ankcorn - USGS

» Jeffrey Dobur - SERFC» Cynthia Donald - USACE

Discussion

Current Drought Status, Seasonal Forecasts and

Outlooks

David Zierden

Wettest 12-month period in U.S. History

6

Wildfire Risk

7

Rainfall – Last 7 Days

Rainfall – Last 30 Days

Rainfall Surplus/Deficit – Last 90 Days

Next Week

7-Day Quantitative Precip. Forecast

Current Sea Surface Temperatures

Subsurface Temperatures

El Nino Forecast

NOAA 3-Month Outlook (April – June)

Take Home Messages• Lowest drought coverage since 2000 for the U.S., wettest 12 months on record

• Good coverage of 1-2 inches in the last week, more in SW Georgia.

• Middle and lower ACF with 2-4 inch deficits over last 90 days, sharp gradient to above normal near the headwaters

• 7-day forecast mostly dry for the Southeast

• El Nino conditions still entrenched – 80% likelihood through spring, near 60% through summer and into fall

• CPC seasonal forecast (March - May) favors higher chances for warm temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall

• El Nino loses much of its influence on weather patterns in late spring/summer

State of Alabama Input

provided byTom Littlepage

Current Alabama Drought Declaration:

April 23, 2019

Next Meeting of the Alabama Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG):

May 14, 2019 @ 1 pm CST(Immediately after this Webinar)

Streamflows and Groundwater

Paul Ankcorn

Real-time Stream Flow Compared with Historical Monthly Averages

Current:»

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as

compared with historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous Brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chattahoochee River near Cornelia (02331600)

Chestatee River near Dahlonega (02333500)

28-day Average Streamflow

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000)

Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)

28-day Average Streamflow

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Chattahoochee at Columbus (02341460)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

Flint River near Griffin (02344500)

Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

Flint River at Albany (02352500)

Flint River at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

» Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Real-time Groundwater Conditions

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief Current Brief

Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Dougherty County 11K003

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Summary

• Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to high range.

• 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the much above normal range.

• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in much above normal range.

• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal to much above normal range.

• Groundwater levels range from much below normal to above normal across the ACF Basin.

Streamflow Forecasts

Jeffrey Dobur

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow ForecastsApalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

May 14th – June 14th

2019

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

Vinings

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

5%

28%

67%12%

40%48%

28%

36%36%

20%

40%40%

17%

49%

34%

May 14th – August 14th

2019

Summary

• 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal Chattahoochee, Near Normal Apalachicola and Flint

• 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Above Normal Upper Chattahoochee, Near Normal Middle Chattahoochee, Near Normal Apalachicola and Flint

• Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.

USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions

Cynthia Donald

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

Summary

• All projects are currently at or above guide curve.

• Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.

• The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.

Questions or Comments?

Acknowledgements

Speakers» David Zierden, FSU» Paul Ankcorn, USGS» Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC» Cynthia Donald, USACE

Moderator» Rachel McGuire, AUWRC

Additional Information» General Drought Information

• www.drought.gov• www.drought.unl.edu

» General Climate and El Nino Information• www.agroclimate.org/climate/

» Streamflow Monitoring and Forecasting• www.waterwatch.usgs.gov• www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

» Groundwater Monitoring• www.groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank YouRachel McGuire334 844 1163rem@auburn.eduaaes.auburn.edu/wrc

Next Webinar: Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET

Slides from this briefing will be posted at:aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extension-outreach/droughtwebinar/