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National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Annual Meeting 2016Quick Fire 3: Unconventional Weapons and
Technology, Political Instability, Risk Communication• Enrichment and Reprocessing Futures Study presented by James Halverson• New Analytic Methods for the Exploitation of Open-Source Structured
Databases on the Pursuit of WMD Terrorism presented by Markus Binder• Criminal Activities Penetrating European/African Radiological Security presented
by Gary Ackerman• Future Enhancements to the Capability Development Framework (CDF) presented
by Steve Sin• Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architecture Analyses presented by Steve Sin• Assessing Future Chem-Bio Threats and Approaches to Addressing Them
presented by Gary Ackerman• Computational Modeling of Grievances and Political Instability through Global
Media presented by Gary LaFree• School Disaster Communication presented by Holly Roberts• Complacency and False Alarms in Tornado Affected Communities presented
by Michael Egnoto• Revealing Trends and Outliers in Global Terrorism and Radicalization through Rapid
Visual Data Exploration with Keshif presented by Adil Yalcin
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Enrichment and Reprocessing Futures Study Gary Ackerman (PI), Michelle Jacome (PM), James Halverson, Dan Smith, Molly MacCalman
Project Objectives:Examine violent non-state actor ability to undertake complex engineering projects and, in turn, the feasibility of a non-state E or R project in light of emerging technologies.
Transition Product:“Designing Danger” special issue of the Journal of Strategic Security
ResultsAdversary Threat
Past VNSA activities reflect sophistication enough to attempt E or R processes. Among the groups modeled, Hezbollah was most likely to successfully adopt either of the technologies
Of the four adversaries examined, apart from “Dawn of the Divine Truth” (DDT), Hezbollah was by far the most likely adversary to be aware of both technologies and to decide to pursue either technology.
Deliverables:- Extensive literature review- 5 VNSA case studies- 4 coded profiles - Modeling and comparative analysis (T-TAM)- 200+ sites profiled / vulnerability assessed
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
James Halverson
301-405-7131
Contact
www.start.umd.edu
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
New Analytic Methods for the Exploitation of Open-Source Structured Databases on the Pursuit of WMD Terrorism:
Ronald Breiger, Gary Ackerman, H. Brinton Milward, Victor Asal & R. Karl Rethemeyer
WMD Data Analysis Stream
Dual-to-Regression Models
Configurational Analysis method
WMD data Source Evaluation Schema
POICN Database
BAAD-2 Database
System for marrying POICN and BAAD databases (TORG)
New Method for interacting Qualitative with Quantitative WMD Analysis (case studies)
OutputsProject Approach:Enhance structured databases of CBRN incidents and related asymmetric activities on the part of violent non-state actors (VNSAs). Formulate longitudinal models for the profile similarity network that undergirds the distinctive features of the data.Leverage those databases by means of new analytical methods and perspectives; Validate using in-depth case studies.Integrate all aspects of the project’s data and methods into an end-to-end process for turning disparate sources of information on non-state CBRN activities into actionable insights for analysts, commanders and decision-makers.
Project Goals: Understand which characteristics of terrorist groups are most closely associated with the decision to pursue chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons —characteristics that can serve as early warning indicators of intent and capability.
Project Status: Completed March 2016
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Markus K. Binder
301-405-9870
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Criminal Activities Penetrating European/African Radiological Security
Gary Ackerman (PI); Michelle Jacome (PM)James Halverson, Molly MacCalman, Daniel Smith, Anastasia Kouloganes & Jeremy Poulson
Project ObjectiveAnalyze TTPs used in recent sophisticated crimes and terrorist attacks to detect emerging trends relevant to RN material / weapon acquisition efforts.
Product:50 + Sophisticated Events Profiles drawn from both global and local sources.
Results:
• Autonomous cells and broadly informal criminal arrangements may pose a more serious or direct threat to RN security than established criminal organizations.
• Insider participation is a serious concern in terms of security safeguards, nuclear or otherwise.
• As cyber-attacks become more prevalent, sophisticated criminals increasingly look to combine means of physical and digital infiltration to compromise secured systems and facilities.
• High level of innovation in tactics, techniques, and procedures can be discerned from the analysis of the individual profiles.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Michelle Jacome
(301) 405-9317
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Future Enhancements to the Capability Development Framework (CDF)
Steve Sin, Marcus Boyd, Brooke Liu & Michael Egnoto Vulnerability and consequence (V&C) based
planning tool for the domestic portion of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA)• Organizes information about radiological
and nuclear (RN) detection capabilities in the United States
• Provides strategic guidance• Acts as a resource for Federal, state, local,
territorial, and tribal jurisdictions to identify capability gaps
2 basic types of V&C indices included: Target and Pathway• Target-type Indices: Interior Population Index; Special Events Index• Pathway-type Indices: Interior Transit Index; Land Border Index; Maritime Index
Lowest level of analysis: Census tract Aggregation levels: county; Metropolitan/Micropolitan Statistical Area; state; user defined area Evolution: Microsoft Excel Stand-alone computer application web-based online
application Web-based online application has completed Alpha testing; currently in Beta testing phase Next Steps: Continue development based on user feedback; transition application to the funder
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Steve S. [email protected](301) 405-8785
Marcus [email protected]
(301) 405-9055
Brooke [email protected](301) 405-6524
Michael [email protected]
(301) 314-1873
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Radiological and Nuclear Detection Architecture Analyses of Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Turkey, and Ukraine
Steve Sin
Background Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA) is a framework for detecting, analyzing, and
reporting on nuclear and other radioactive materials that are out of regulatory control A requirement exists to evaluate current capabilities in the field of radiological and nuclear (RN)
detection in order to define the best approach to further develop the GNDA Research involved both open source desk research and field research
Products 6 Country Reports (one per country of study) 4 Illicit RN Trafficking Scenarios Data for the 6 countries coded into Data Integration Tool
Summary of Findings Extraordinary efforts on the part of the United States and relevant partner states have improved
the security of RN materials – especially the special nuclear materials – in the region These states, especially Georgia, still pose a significant threat of being a source and/or transit
states of illicit RN material trafficking Private chartered flights and small ocean-going vessels (yachts, fishing vessels, etc.) continue to
pose challenges to the GNDA
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Steve S. Sin
(301) 405-8785
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Assessing Future Chem-Bio Threats and Approaches to Addressing Them
• Goal: Provide strategic guidance for next administration’s chem-bio defense policy• Horizon Scan: Several hundred mainstream and fringe sources + 48 SME interviews
1,022 signals 99 insights strategic mapping of threat/defense landscape (2-10 years out)
• Policy Review:– Literature + 51 stakeholder interviews– High-level policymaker Round Table (Sept ´16)
Core Team: Gary Ackerman (PI), Tara Kirk Sell (co-PI), Markus Binder (PM), Crystal Boddie & Matt Watson
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Gary Ackerman
301-405-6656
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Computational Modeling of Grievances and Political Instability Through Global Media (NSF)
• Research Objective: Compare ability of traditional social science methods and social media (Twitter) to study (a) reactions to political violence and (b) impact of grievances on political violence.
• Testbed 1: Boston Marathon bombings: What impact do attacks have on public attitudes? What predicts differential reactions? How stable are attitude changes over time? What are the strengths and weaknesses of surveys and social media data?
• Testbed 2: Election violence in Sub-Saharan Africa: Why are some elections violent? How are perceived grievances related to election violence? How can we use surveys, event data and social media to study connections between grievances and violence?
• Testbed 3: To develop a dashboard for integrating leading data bases on political violence.
• Testbed 4: Develop a common geo-spatial referencing system for different data bases in the analysis.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
NSF INSPIRE Research Team:
• Gary LaFree, Criminology• David Backer, Political Science• David Cunningham, Political Science• Brooke Fisher Liu, Communications• Jennifer Golbeck, Computer Science• Paul Torrens, Geography• George Mohler, Mathematics• Brandon Behlendorf, Criminology • Erin McGrath, Public and International Affairs• Eric Dunford, Political Science• Karsten Donnay, Computational Social Science • Brian Wingenroth, Computer Science• Cody Buntain, Computer Science• Amy Adamczyk, Sociology• Lauren Williams, Program manager• Mila Johns, Project staff
For more information, contact:
Gary LaFree ([email protected])Erin McGrath ([email protected])Lauren Williams ([email protected])
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
School Disaster CommunicationBrooke Liu, Holly Roberts, Tyler Page
Content Analysis
• State preparedness guidance
• District-level planning documents
• District-level social media posts
Survey
• Health Services Coordinators
• Health Officers
• Principals
• Public Information Officers
• School Safety Officers
• Superintendents
Interviews
• Health Services Coordinators
• Health Officers
• Principals
• Public Information Officers
• School Safety Officers
• Superintendents
Funded by the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene through a grant from the Centers for Disease Control.
Goal: Assess the current state of Maryland local school communication policies, procedures and processes, and make recommendations for improvements to fill identified gaps.
Findings• State Preparedness Guidance
• Add additional communication guidance for local school systems
• Enhance the job aids to include more communication related items
• Provide sample message templates• Provide realistic media relations guidance
• District-Level Preparedness Guidance• Provide tailored guidance by crisis type• Provide additional resources• Provide more information for parents• Provide social and mobile media guidance• Provide media relations guidance• Provide evaluation support• Enhance training• Provide guidance on volunteers and donations• Enhance special needs planning
• District-Level Social Media Guidance• Expand social media use• Expand topics transmitted via social media• Provide specific calls to action• Provide additional crisis information• Include more directed information• Provide temporal recommendations• Increase readability
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Holly Roberts
301.405.9888
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Complacency and False Alarms in Tornado Affected CommunitiesMichael J. Egnoto & Brooke Liu
Purpose: How do false alarms impact complacency to emergency weather warnings?
Method:
Literature Review Focus GroupsMulti-survey Deployment
Focus: Improved understanding of disaster decision processes and capabilities.
Key Findings:1. Comprehending Protective
Actions2. Communicating Behaviors3. Preferred Information
Sources4. Preferences5. Protective Decision Making6. False Alarms, Accuracy, &
Complacency7. Myths and Cues8. Lab vs. Real Life9. Housing
Ind. Chars.
RC
CAPS
Problem Solving
Info. Engag.
SMPS
Reactions
Future Directions: Housing, Meteorologists,multi-public messaging
Project Funded by NOAA
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Michael J Egnoto, PhD (PI)
P. 301.314.1873
Brooke Liu (Co-PI)
Holly A. Roberts
Jung Kyu Rhys Lim
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Revealing Trends and Outliers in Global Terrorism & Radicalization through Rapid Visual Data Exploration with Keshif
Exploring Multiple Datasets• PIRUS – Foreign Fighters• Global Terrorism Database • Narratives / Counter-Narratives Library
Available & Open Source at www.keshif.meSTART Data browsers will be available soon!
• Rapid Prototyping using existing toolsWith results in a few days/weeks
• Collaborative Improvements by Experts in Terrorism Domain
• Building new featuresby setting shared goals
• Targeting Internal Research and External Dissemination
• Rich exploration inside a web browser
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to TerrorismA Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Adil Yalcin
240-391-8351
Contact
www.start.umd.edu
