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Listening Session Needs of Potential Users Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation ( TCRP Project B-36). National Conference on Rural Public and Intercity Transportation October 21, 2008. Findings of Initial Tasks (general agreement). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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National Conference on Rural Public and Intercity Transportation
October 21, 2008
Findings of Initial Tasks(general agreement)
Need = number of persons likely to require service
Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost
Both are required; need may be more important to build support
It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition
Findings of Initial Tasks(some disagreement)
Maintain “program/non-program” distinction
Quality of service may not be an essential factor
Some areas want models to forecast commuter travel to urban centers
Some want models to include fare policies
Need(Potential Approaches)
Number of persons in key population segments (elderly, low income, with disabilities, in social service program)
Maximum or 85th percentile per capita use for peer systems (Minnesota approach)
Mobility Gap based on ACS
Demand(Possible approaches)
Default rates based on:National experienceState experienceNearby systems
Peer systemsFull demand modelMarket based methods
Data Sources• Demographic data – ACS (and PUMS)
– will be available at the tract level– only source for disability data
• National Household Travel Survey – valid data only for large geographic areas
• Rural NTD– service areas not clearly identified– patronage by market not specified– some questions about data quality– general public services only
Data Sources(continued)Public Transportation-Human Service
Coordination PlansDo not contain detailed dataOne product may be recommendations on data
collection to support need/demand analysisOperating agencies
Best source for detailed dataObtaining data requires substantial effort
Demand Frameworks Market based similar to B-3
• Keyed to demographic data with adjustment for service quality– Commuter to central city element added based
on Census– Program vs. Non-program stratification retained
• Little data available to develop improved model
• 2000 Census could provide data for commuter model
• Addresses only demand for Section 5311 funded services
• Rural NTD coupled with Census/ACS provides data
• Difficult to define “area served”• Depends on quality of NTD reporting• Permits analysis of regional variation
Possible Demand FrameworksMarket based – limited to public transportation
Possible Demand Frameworks Peer Group Forecast demand based on state experience
Models can be developed only for states having data Project report would describe process for
states to adoptCould be integrated with coordination plans
Need FrameworkBased on population segments
Mobility Gap by region
Demand Framework Service Stratified
Section 5311 recipients and similar systems based on Rural NTD
Program (sponsored) trips based on B-3Small city fixed route based analysis of
trips/capita vs. service/capitaCommuters to urban centers based on
Census Journey-to-work
Use of Methodology(User comments sought)
How will you use this methodology?
What problems would you have with the proposed approach?
Model Structure(User comments sought)
Is the distinction between program (sponsored-trips) and non-program trips useful?
What are types of program trips should be addressed?
B-3 categories:Developmental Services
Mental Health Services
Group Home Nursing Home
Headstart Senior Nutrition
Homeless Shelter Workshop
Job Training
Model Structure(user comments sought)
Are there key markets we are omitting?
Are the data sources we have overlooked?
Presentation Formats(user comment sought)
Workbook – as for Project B-3Detailed report explaining methodologyExcel spreadsheetOn-line application