National Board of Trade

Lena JohanssonDirector-General

2013-10-14

• Agency for foreign trade and trade policy

• Promote free trade and transparent rules

• Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade

National Board of Trade

2

Objectives

• An effective Internal Market

• An open trade policy in the EU

• A strong multilateral international trading system

3

The Swedish Government:

….. create growth and employment in Sweden

by promoting free trade and dismantling of trade barriers

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Free trade

• Trade and welfare

• Sweden is very dependant on international trade

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Developing countries

• Analyses of developing countries perspective

• Competence and capacity building programmes in developing countries

• Open Trade Gate Sweden

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7

Ljuset är proportionell mot den ekonomiska aktiviteten

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International trade: theories and practices

•Why do people trade?

•Situation and developments in world trade

•Swedish trade patterns and developments

•Trade policies

•Trade and Climate Change

•Development perspective

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Swedish trade dependance

Exports/GDP > 50 %

Imports/GDP = almost 50 %

11

Källa: WTO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Sve

nsk

exp

ort

: M

ilja

rder

US

D

Vär

ldse

xpo

rt:

Mil

jard

er U

SD

Världsexport och Sveriges export av varor och tjänster

Världen Sverige

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

And

el (%

)

Export av varor och tjänster, procent av BNP (1960–2007)

Världen Sverige

Exports of goods and services,percent of GDP (1960-2007)

1960 1996 2006

Global 10 % 20 % 30 %

Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 %

Exports/GDP

14

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Inde

x 19

80 =

100

FDI och export (1980 - 2007)

FDI Export Källa: UNCTAD

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1995 2005

Global 10 % 24 %

Sweden 30 % > 50 %

Foreign investments/GDP

16

Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country

FDI´s grow even faster17

“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.It is firms that trade”

“… This simple truth makes it clear that understanding the firm-level facts is essential to

good policy-making in Europe. The view that it is important to focus on the firm rather than the sector is the single most important message of recent developments in international

economics”.

Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:European Firms in a

Global Economy (EFIGE)

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• Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé =23 % of world trade

• Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade

- Europe 31 % (single market 25 %)- Asia 14 %- North America 8 %

International trade is still regional

19

951 mdr $(7 %)

122 mdr $(1 %)

40,5 mdr $(0,3 %)

4243mdr $(31%)

103 mdr $(1 %)

1889mdr $(14%)

282 mdr $(2%)

787mdr $(6 %)

315 mdr $(2 %)

1148 mdr $(8%)

93,4 mdr $(1%)

1108 mdr $(8%)

Intra regional handel

Inter-regional handel

477mdr $(4 %)

Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008 20

Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)

EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total handel 1962-2008

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Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008

Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)

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Trends in world trade – long term

• Global market place

• Global Value Chains

• Goods and Services

• Servicification

• e-commerce

• Movement of persons

• Data flows

• Digitalization

Other tendencies - short term?

• Crises effects, politics

• New protectionism

• Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally

• Local production

Climate concerns

Emerging markets

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

And

el (%

)

Regional fördelning av varuexporten i världen (1963 och 2007)

1963

2007

Export by regions (1963 och 2007)

50

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Global Value Chains and Trade

• The traditional picture:

An industry in one country produces goods

for exports to and final consumption in another country

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26

Global Value Chains and Trade

• The new reality:

The production is fragmented

Inputs and components are produced in many countries

and the product is assembled in many countries

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A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…

Made in Sweden?

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Made In The World

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Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller

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Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Russ

iaIn

dia

Braz

ilU

nite

d St

ates

Arg

entin

aA

ustr

alia

Indo

nesi

aSo

uth

Afr

ica

Japa

nU

nite

d Ki

ngdo

mN

ew Z

eala

ndN

orw

ayIs

rael

Turk

eySw

itzer

land

Italy

Fran

ceSp

ain

Ger

man

yG

reec

eCh

ina

Pola

ndCa

nada

Aus

tria

Port

ugal

Swed

enD

enm

ark

Net

herl

ands

Finl

and

Mex

ico

Chin

ese

Taip

eiKo

rea

Belg

ium

Slov

enia

Czec

h Re

publ

icSl

ovak

Rep

ublic

Esto

nia

Irel

and

Hun

gary

Luxe

mbo

urg

OECD-average: 31 %

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Sectors

Tjänstesektorer

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Exportvärdet jämfört med förädlingsvärdet från exporten

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En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America?

43 subcontractors

Spread on 135 production facilities in the world

Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S. and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden

70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S.

”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA

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Over 50 % of world trade is trade in inputs

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“Everybody is in Services”

– The Impact of Servicification in Manufacturing on Trade and Trade Policy

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Servicification = more and more services as inputs and outputs in manufacturing

Increased dependence in the manufacturing industry on

•Purchased service inputs

•In-house service production

•Sales of services integrated into products

•Sales of services alongside products

•Service import and export

…supports competitiveness, productivity and trade

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Almost 50 % of the employees in Swedish

manufactoring have services jobs

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Services and Global Value Chains

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1. Services as enablers

Source: USITC 2011

Financial services

Quality Control Services

Logistics Services

Marketing Services

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Minecraft by Mojang AB

• Game idea: Mining different blocks to create and build structures of choice

• First released: May 2009

• Official release: November 2011

• Original developer: Markus ‘Notch’ Persson

• Owner: Notch Development AB

• Current Developer: Mojang AB (under license)

• Sold copies: 18 million (Dec 2012) – 40,000 copies/day

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Lessons from video game sector

• R&D heavy, cutting edge of ICT-sector

• ”Live development”

• Digital distribution

• Digital tasks outsourced

• Digital ecosystems

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Countries involved in the GVC

• USA

• Germany

• England

• Scotland

• Holland

• Canada

• Japan

• Denmark

• Finland

• Sweden

Plus: UN Habitat, and other countries (”Community”, marketing and ”3rd Party Servers)

Without order of importance

43

Services provide over 50 % of the value

from exports from OECD countries

44

Svensk export mätt i förädlings-värde per sektor (2008)

Källa: SCB

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sveriges 12 viktigaste exportmarknader 2011Andel av Sveriges totala export

An

de

l(%

)

46

Var hamnar svensk export? - 2008

Källa: OECD/Kommerskollegiums egna beräkningar47

Källa: SCB

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Sveriges 12 viktigaste leverantörsländer 2011Andel av Sveriges totala import

An

de

l (%

)

48

•E-commerce

•New options

•New barriers

•Cloud computing

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“While the nature of global trade has changed, trade regulation in the EU and other OECD economies has remained

largely the same.”

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EU trade policy

• Common policy

• EU acts as one part in WTO

• Customs Union

• Import Quotas

• Antidumping and other safeguards

• Free Trade Agreements

• Common Agicultural Policy, CAP

51

0

100

200

300

400

500

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Nu

mb

er o

f F

TA

s

Notified to GATT/WTO Notified to GATT/WTO and in force

WTO is founded

Source: WTO RTA gateway

FTAs notified and active (1948-2008)

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Genomsnittlig tullnivå för industrivaror i i-länder

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Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder

54

How does trade effect CO2 emissions?

• Transports 

• Production: location, methods

• Innovations and technical developments are spread

55

The relationship between international trade and transport modes

Källa: UNCTAD (2008)

Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006)

56

CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector

Källor: IEA (2011) och OECD (2010b)

57

Emission intensity for different modes

Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)

CO

2-u

tslä

pp p

er t

on-k

m

58

“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.It is firms that trade”

“… This simple truth makes it clear that understanding the firm-level facts is essential to

good policy-making in Europe. The view that it is important to focus on the firm rather than the sector is the single most important message of recent developments in international

economics”.

Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:European Firms in a

Global Economy (EFIGE)

59

Surveys and publications

• Reports in Swedish and English

• Website: www.kommers.se

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Trade related Development Cooperation

Contribute to developing countries

• trade possibilities and

• trade negotiation capacity

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www.kommers.se

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