Upload
rodney-owen
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Nate Mantua
JISAO Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources Workshop Pacific Marine Environmental Lab
May 14, 2008 Seattle, WA
Nate Mantua
JISAO Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources Workshop Pacific Marine Environmental Lab
May 14, 2008 Seattle, WA
Climate considerations in the Climate considerations in the management of anadromous management of anadromous
fishes in the Pacific Northwestfishes in the Pacific Northwest
Climate considerations in the Climate considerations in the management of anadromous management of anadromous
fishes in the Pacific Northwestfishes in the Pacific Northwest
OutlineOutline
1. A bit of background
2. Short term harvest planning
3. Long-term recovery planning
4. Water resources and hatchery operations
1. A bit of background
2. Short term harvest planning
3. Long-term recovery planning
4. Water resources and hatchery operations
The Ocean Phase: most of a salmon’s life, typically half the
mortality, and nearly all the growth
Salmon hatcheries - not to be confused with fish farmsSalmon hatcheries - not to be confused with fish farms
Abundance variesAbundance varies
• Salmon fisheries are managed at the level of stocks (or independent population groups)
• Stock-sizes vary, so the success of abundance-based management depends in part on accurate pre-season run-size forecasts
– and accurate stock distribution forecasts for mixed stock fisheries
• Salmon fisheries are managed at the level of stocks (or independent population groups)
• Stock-sizes vary, so the success of abundance-based management depends in part on accurate pre-season run-size forecasts
– and accurate stock distribution forecasts for mixed stock fisheries
• The abundance of Pacific salmon has likely been at historic highs since the 1980s
• Hatcheries have contributed ~60% of the increase
• The ocean’s carrying capacity for salmon appears to have doubled!
From Nathan Taylor UBC Fisheries Centre
• The abundance of Pacific salmon has likely been at historic highs since the 1980s
• Hatcheries have contributed ~60% of the increase
• The ocean’s carrying capacity for salmon appears to have doubled!
From Nathan Taylor UBC Fisheries Centre
Mil
lion
s of
ad
ult
s
A North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon productionA North-South see-saw in salmon production
Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO ???Cool PDO
spri
ng
chin
ook
ret
urn
s to
th
e C
olu
mb
ia R
iver
mou
th
(100
0s)
Alask
a pin
k an
d sock
eye catch
(million
s)
These are hard times for west coast salmon and salmon fisheriesThese are hard times for west coast salmon and salmon fisheries
• Wild salmon abundance now just a few percent of historic levels, and hatchery programs have only partially mitigated for the lost abundance
• 1990s ushered in the era of ESA listings– 28 of 52 west coast ESUs currently listed as either
threatened or endangered with extinction under the ESA
• 1990s also ushered in an era of sharply reduced harvest opportunities for west coast salmon fishers
• Wild salmon abundance now just a few percent of historic levels, and hatchery programs have only partially mitigated for the lost abundance
• 1990s ushered in the era of ESA listings– 28 of 52 west coast ESUs currently listed as either
threatened or endangered with extinction under the ESA
• 1990s also ushered in an era of sharply reduced harvest opportunities for west coast salmon fishers
Klamath River fish kill 2002Klamath River fish kill 2002
• Disease, high fish densities, low flows and a very warm river resulted in massive kill of adult chinook salmon in the lower Klamath River
• Disease, high fish densities, low flows and a very warm river resulted in massive kill of adult chinook salmon in the lower Klamath River
Conservation concerns over the offspring from the 2002 returns led to a curtailed CA/OR chinook season in 2005, and sharp restrictions in 2006 www.oregonwild.org
Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) harvest and allocation planningharvest and allocation planningForecasts for short-term (3-6 month) Forecasts for short-term (3-6 month) harvest and allocation planningharvest and allocation planning
• pre-season run-size predictions for every river: “how many fish will there be in the ocean this summer fishing season? Whose fish are they? How much protection do depleted stocks need?”
• run-size forecasts are based on assumptions about productivity trends (typically a persistence forecast) and information about the number of spawning adults, jack returns, and juveniles produced in hatcheries … use fish to predict fish, yet forecast errors are frequently 50-100%!
• No climate information has been formally used, but many studies have looked to “climate indicators” for help in reducing forecast errors
• pre-season run-size predictions for every river: “how many fish will there be in the ocean this summer fishing season? Whose fish are they? How much protection do depleted stocks need?”
• run-size forecasts are based on assumptions about productivity trends (typically a persistence forecast) and information about the number of spawning adults, jack returns, and juveniles produced in hatcheries … use fish to predict fish, yet forecast errors are frequently 50-100%!
• No climate information has been formally used, but many studies have looked to “climate indicators” for help in reducing forecast errors
Oregon (OPI) coho marine survival Oregon (OPI) coho marine survival
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 19901992 1994 1996 1998
Return Year
Survival
Persistence forecasts often fail because productivity varies by an order of magnitude…
Sept 1997 El NiñoSept 1997 El Niño Sept 1998 La NiñaSept 1998 La Niña
West-coast sub-arctic habitat is dynamic and sensitive to changing wind patterns (frequently influenced by El Niño and La Niña)
upwelling food webs in our coastal ocean: the California Current
Cool water, weak stratificationhigh nutrients, a productive “subarctic” food-chain with abundant forage fish and few warm water predators
Warm stratified ocean, fewnutrients, low productivity “subtropical” zooplankton, a lack of forage fish and abundant predators
Typically high NW salmon survival
Typically low NW salmon survival
1000 juvenileSalmon (smolts)
10’s to 100’s post-smolts early summer
A few to ~100 adults in 2nd summer
key factors? •Stratification •spring transition date•spring winds, upwelling and transport
?
1st s
prin
g at
sea
1st s
prin
g at
sea
1st w
inte
r at
sea
1st w
inte
r at
sea
key factors? •Stratification •winter winds, downwelling and transport
?
coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival (Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)(Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival coastal ocean impacts on coho marine survival (Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)(Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oceanogr.)
4 index 4 index Ocean Conditions ModelOcean Conditions Model “hindcasts” “hindcasts” for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 4 index 4 index Ocean Conditions ModelOcean Conditions Model “hindcasts” “hindcasts” for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998 for OPI coho marine survival, 1969-1998
Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oc.
R2= .75Empirically based models often do a good job “explaining” the past with environmental factors, but errors are generally large in forecast mode
Coho Forecasting SystemsCoho Forecasting Systems
Coastal Ocean Conditions
Sea surface temperaturesSea surface temperatures
Sea level
Nearshore winds
Oregon coho
salmon survival
SpringFall Winter Summer
FisheryFisheryRun-size forecast Run-size forecast (using obs’d ocean (using obs’d ocean
conditions)conditions)
Run-size forecast Run-size forecast (using SST forecast)(using SST forecast)
Plankton surveys
“fish-based forecasts” Jack returns
Harvest & allocation
decisions (February-March)
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml
Lessons learnedLessons learned
• Time and space scale of climate information provided must match the scale of management decisions in order to be useful– Our basin-scale research results were inappropriate for local
scale management decisions– Collaborating with a fishery scientist charged with supplying
pre-season salmon predictions solved our scale mis-match problem
• A better understanding for the complexity of the climate impacts on salmon pathway allowed for a sobering assessment of predictability limits– Key aspects of ocean conditions for coho salmon are not likely
predictable, and this result highlights the importance of monitoring
• Time and space scale of climate information provided must match the scale of management decisions in order to be useful– Our basin-scale research results were inappropriate for local
scale management decisions– Collaborating with a fishery scientist charged with supplying
pre-season salmon predictions solved our scale mis-match problem
• A better understanding for the complexity of the climate impacts on salmon pathway allowed for a sobering assessment of predictability limits– Key aspects of ocean conditions for coho salmon are not likely
predictable, and this result highlights the importance of monitoring
Monitoring SystemsMonitoring Systems
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm
Multi-year to decadal forecastsMulti-year to decadal forecasts
• Skillful forecasts for the PDO or other modes of Pacific Decadal Variability are of great interest to salmon fisheries– It is now widely known that climate matters for
Pacific salmon, but the lack of skillful forecasts limits the utility of this information
• Skillful forecasts for the PDO or other modes of Pacific Decadal Variability are of great interest to salmon fisheries– It is now widely known that climate matters for
Pacific salmon, but the lack of skillful forecasts limits the utility of this information
The longer view: salmon recovery and restoration planningThe longer view: salmon recovery and restoration planning
• Will climate change derail well-intended plans?Will climate change derail well-intended plans?– NOAA Fisheries is crafting recovery plans and criteria for getting
ESA-listed stocks delisted– Biological Opinions are crafted to guide water management
operations so they comply with ESA mandates in major salmon producing watersheds like the Columbia, Klamath, and Sacramento River basins
– Large-scale conservation planning in the NGO world seeks advice on where to invest effort and $
– Federal, state, and local agencies are looking for guidance on how and where to invest efforts to protect and restore salmon
– Watershed-scale salmon restoration efforts are widespread across the west
• Will climate change derail well-intended plans?Will climate change derail well-intended plans?– NOAA Fisheries is crafting recovery plans and criteria for getting
ESA-listed stocks delisted– Biological Opinions are crafted to guide water management
operations so they comply with ESA mandates in major salmon producing watersheds like the Columbia, Klamath, and Sacramento River basins
– Large-scale conservation planning in the NGO world seeks advice on where to invest effort and $
– Federal, state, and local agencies are looking for guidance on how and where to invest efforts to protect and restore salmon
– Watershed-scale salmon restoration efforts are widespread across the west
Snohomish R. Chinook Recovery Planning Case Snohomish R. Chinook Recovery Planning Case StudyStudy
• Evaluate the benefits of alternative habitat restoration plans under different future climate scenarios using linked hydrologic and salmon-lifecycle models
Battin et al. 2007: PNAS
Snohomish R.
Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River (Battin et al. 2007: PNAS)
Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River (Battin et al. 2007: PNAS)
Climate Change will make salmon restoration more difficult:
•Decreasing Summer Low Flows
•Increasing Winter Peak Flows
•Increasing water temperatures in critical periods
Decreasing Spawning Flows
Increasing Winter Flows
Additional climate considerations for NW salmon managementAdditional climate considerations for NW salmon management
• Water management– In all anadromous river basins, operations seek to balance
multiple demands on water supplies; “normative” in-stream flows are the primary goal to optimize salmon production, but this usually conflicts with hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and transportation goals
• Hatchery operations: the NW has enormous investments in this infrastructure, and hatcheries are now the backbone of west coast salmon fisheries.
• Hatchery operations make no allowance for climate considerations– Climate information has the potential to inform decisions on
smolt release number and timing, facilities siting, mothballing failing programs, or building new ones…
• Water management– In all anadromous river basins, operations seek to balance
multiple demands on water supplies; “normative” in-stream flows are the primary goal to optimize salmon production, but this usually conflicts with hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and transportation goals
• Hatchery operations: the NW has enormous investments in this infrastructure, and hatcheries are now the backbone of west coast salmon fisheries.
• Hatchery operations make no allowance for climate considerations– Climate information has the potential to inform decisions on
smolt release number and timing, facilities siting, mothballing failing programs, or building new ones…