NAR Data Snapshots - Association of American Railroads...The NAR reduction program is based on...
36
Tank Car NAR Data Breakdowns for 2012 Source of data: AAR/BOE Hazardous Materials Release Reporter Database & Annual Hazmat Reports Todd Treichel [email protected]http://www.nar.aar.com
NAR Data Snapshots - Association of American Railroads...The NAR reduction program is based on raising awareness, and is not punitive, which is why there is an emphasis \൯n count
All data in these slides are for tank car non-accident releases of hazmat/dangerous goods only. They are compiled for the AAR Tank Car Committee and the North American NAR Reduction Task Force, whose focus is also restricted to tank cars at present. Tank cars experience the large majority of NARs compared to other packages, and also represent a larger hazard because of the quantities of lading in the tanks (though NARs almost always involve a very small loss compared to tank capacity).
Source for the NAR Data • The source is AAR/BOE’s Hazardous Materials
Release Reporter database (aka Rail Reporter) • Not the same as PHMSA’s 5800.1-based data
– Includes incidents occurring in Canada – Excludes incidents with no lading released
e.g., precautionary evacuations
– Uses BOE cause codes, not DOT’s – Includes NAR Risk Index (NARRI) scores
Formula measures severity, actual and potential
• Data subject to slight changes if revised reports come in
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The North American NAR Reduction Task Force has scope covering all of North America, so data from both US and Canada are included. BOE=Bureau of Explosives. BOE uses its own cause codes because they offer a somewhat finer-grained breakdown. NARRI Scores account for both the actual consequences of a specific event and the potential consequences based on chemical hazard and other factors, according to a well-defined formula used by the reporting railroads. How preventable the securement problem should have been when the car was released to transportation is also weighed in the score.
Tank Cars with NARs by Year US & Canada
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Canadian NAR reduction program was expanded to the US as well in 1996. 2012 may have reached a new low. The counts are subject to later adjustment, because there are always a handful of records that take some time to resolve (10 or fewer).
Top Commodities for NARs 2012 US & Canada
2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Task Force looks first at causes and commodities with the highest numbers of NARs, because that’s where the potential for big improvements lies. Ten years ago, AA and LPG were the leaders, but they have been reduced drastically. Hydrochloric acid solution is down considerably. Crude oil and Alcohols NOS have surged ahead, but in the case of Alcohols at least, this is due to the huge increase in shipment volume. Crude oil rates of NARs per shipment are somewhat above average, so this total count is driven by more than just the soaring traffic volume. Flammable liquids NOS also is up noticeably. Hydrogen peroxide and ETM have dropped out of the table. Gasoline is back in, but not to its 2009 level of 42.
Source: AAR/BOE Annual Hazmat Reports
NARs per 1,000 Originations Selected Commodities
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Note that Alcohols NOS stays around or below the average of all hazmats, indicating that the unprecedented huge volume of trips is driving the high NAR counts. Crude oil, on the other hand (shown only for 2011-2012) falls somewhat above average. Almost all rates fell in 2012.
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Percent of NARs Occurring on Loaded Trips
12 Months Ending June 2012
Top 16 commodities, in order of total NARs
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This is important because NARs on residue trips are traced back to the securement practices of consignees, and for some commodities they are a very different population from shippers. AA and LPG usually have the lowest percent of loaded-car NARs (though LPG’s is up), and the consignees for these products are often small local businesses that may not be as aware of best practices or even regulatory requirements. They are often not members of the trade associations that follow NAR developments closely. The Task Force’s philosophy is to raise awareness of best practices, and it needs to know who to communicate with to do that.
Alcohols NOS Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
What looked like an upward trend a few years ago seems to have tapered off, and in any event, the previous highs can be ascribed to shipment volume increases. Nevertheless, it remains opportunity to eliminate a large number of NARs through one community of shippers. The NAR reduction program is based on raising awareness, and is not punitive, which is why there is an emphasis on count data over rate data. NARs of some types and commodities are easier to detect while still in transportation. Furthermore, a high rate based on only two or three NARs is not a big opportunity for reduction of the overall number of NARs, whereas a low rate but high count may be a chance to affect a large number of NARs at once.
Anhydrous Ammonia Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This commodity is a huge success story. AA reached 90 to 100 NARs annually in years before 2004.
Crude Oil Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Shipment volume is increasing drastically, and NARs are coming along with it. On top of the very large volume of shipments driving the count, the 2012 rate of NARs per shipment was somewhat above average.
Crude Oil Shippers with Multiple NARs 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
More than a few shippers of crude experienced more than one NAR in 2012. Note that this is based on the shipper named on the waybill. Multiple entities with different names but belonging to one corporate parent would be identified as separate shippers here. Complications arising from bulk distribution points could also be masked here.
Elevated Temperature Materials Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
It is not entirely clear why ETM leaped up in 2010. There was clearly a focused and careful inspection of outgoing cars on one day in one yard, that found quite a few NARs, but the NARs found at that time do not fully explain the jump. 2011 saw a return to typical levels, which appears to be continuing.
Fuel Oils Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This commodity group has resisted reduction so far.
Gasoline Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
It appears now that the jump upwards in 2009 was an anomaly. 2011 was the best year yet for this commodity, and 2012 was more typical.
Hydrochloric Acid Solution Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
HCL coming in high in the table of commodities shown earlier has more to do with decreases for other formerly highly-ranked materials than it does with HCL itself surging upwards. It is receiving attention from its shippers and the NAR task force, and appears to be making great progress. Hydrochloric acid has seen a significant reduction in NARs in 2012.
LPG Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Like AA, LPG once surpassed 100 annually, but has settled in at a much lower level in recent years.
Molten Sulfur Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The reason for the sudden sharp upward swing is not yet completely resolved. The majority of the 2011-2012 NARs were associated with a small number of origination points, and The Sulphur Institute is investigating further into it.
Sodium Hydroxide Solution Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Recent years are a success story for this commodity.
Pressure Car NARs by Component 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Liquid line NARs have increased their share in recent years. Liquid line includes liquid valve issues; same for vapor/air line and vapor valves.
Top Specific Causes for Pressure Cars 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
There’s little change here from past periods, except that vapor line problems are up. Towards the bottom of the list, with small numbers of incidents, causes can rise and fall due to chance, enough to enter and leave the chart. The BOE cause codes are fairly fine-grained, but it should be understood that they do not reflect root causes. They reflect the degree of understanding a railroad can feasibly gain before the deadline for filing a report to the government and, at the same time, to BOE. An example is when a closure plug is open and the valve is closed. The plug is not the primary closure. Why was it leaking when the valve was closed? The railroad often cannot determine the reason with confidence without further inspection of the valve by other parties..
Nonpressure Car NARs by Component 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
“Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, including hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. Manway NARs are actually on the rise. Liquid line NARs dropped after a high number in 2011. Fill hole are down considerably. The rest are mostly little-changed. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc.
Top Specific Causes for Nonpressure Cars 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Manway bolts loose or less than tool tight is far and away the biggest issue we have. However, it has so many root causes that it is also the most difficult problem to solve. The AAR Tank Car Committee has several task forces looking hard at this issue. Manway gasket issues collectively also remain numerous. Frangible disc “ruptures” have reached an all-time low. These actually include a number of problems that are not the result of high pressure surges, such as poor installment that cracks the disc and leads to early failure. Loose fill hole covers also have declined substantially, and fallen out of the graph.
Manway Causes (Nonpressure) 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Manways are source number one, and loose bolts are cause number one. But a variety of gasket problems collectively also add up to a large number of incidents.
Bottom Outlet/Valve Causes 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Some of the valve-open cases are due to the handle not being adequately secured, and coming loose in transportation.
Fill Hole NAR Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The reason for the bump upwards in 2009-2010 is not yet understood, nor do we know the likelihood of its returning. But the downward trend in acid NARs is being accomplished in part with this component.
Vacuum Relief Valve NAR Trend
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The AAR Tank Car Committee has taken steps based on recommendations from the NAR task force, but it will take time for these to bite into the NAR total.
Vacuum Relief Valve NAR Causes 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This is another case where, without a root cause analysis by the car owner or shipper, the reporting railroad’s ability to specify a cause is sometimes limited. This distribution is typical.
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
PRV NARs by Cause - 2012
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A variety of o-ring problems usually make up the bulk of the list, but overloaded tanks were much increased in 2012.
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
PRV NARs Due to Overloaded Tanks, by Commodity
2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
PRV NARs Due to Overloaded Tanks, by 6-Month Period
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A variety of commodities were involved, and the high frequency in the first half of 2012 was not repeated in the second half. Also, no shipper was involved in more than two incidents in 2012, and there was no pattern to the carriers involved. Given all of that, it could be that the first half’s surge was an anomaly.
Top Specific Causes for Alcohols NOS 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
10 other causes had 1 NAR each
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Alcohols NOS generally has had a wider variety of causes than any other material, although the list of causes shrank this year. It is not clear why either is the case. Like most non-pressure commodities, this one has manway bolts in the lead, but not by as much as before.
Top Specific Causes for LPG 2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
13 other causes had 1 NAR each
Presenter
Presentation Notes
PRV o-rings are no longer the salient issue. Securement of service equipment now dominates. The variety of causes is up.
Top Specific Causes for Crude Oil
2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
17 other causes had 1 NAR each
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Manway and gaskets dominate, but Crude Oil is beginning to rival Alcohols NOS for variety of causes.
Top Specific Causes for Hydrochloric Acid Solution
2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
11 other causes had 1 NAR each
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Because of the overall decline in HCl NARs, the individual causes are starting to have low numbers.
Top Specific Causes for Molten Sulfur
2012
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
6 other causes had 1 NAR each
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The causes are typically similar to most non-pressure commodities. In 2012 they were more extremely centered on the manway.
Injuries due to NARs
Source: AAR/BOE NAR data
Presenter
Presentation Notes
We sometimes focus on the overall number of NARs so hard that we forget this aspect of the problem. It seemed worthwhile to take an introductory look at injuries, to see whether anything could be learned that might adjust our priorities in terms of what to focus on. There are about 1.4 injuries per month, on average. It should be noted that these are injuries during transportation, either railroad personnel or bystanders. This does not account for injuries within plants.
Source: AAR/BOE Annual Hazmat Reports
NARs Causing Injuries by Commodity
2009 – 2012
6 Commodities caused 1 injury
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Alcohols NOS, #1 in total NARs for the period, had its first two injuries in 2012. Crude oil still has zero.
