Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health · the world’s top health experts, defining solutions, delivering guidelines, and mobilizing governments, health workers, and partners to

Namibia: State of the Nation’s HealthFindings from the Global Burden of Disease

Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health explores the progress Namibia has experienced over the last two decades and the new challenges it faces as its population grows and ages. This report provides information about the diseases and injuries that prevent Namibians from living long and healthy lives. It also sheds light on risk factors that cause poor health, ranging from poor diets to alcohol and drug use. Finally, the report compares Namibia’s health performance to that of peer countries.

Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health 1

Namibia: State of the Nation’s HealthFindings from the Global Burden of Disease

This report was prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) through funding from the WHO Namibia Country Office.

The contents of this publication may be reproduced and redistributed in whole or in part, provided the intended use is for noncommercial purposes, the contents are not altered, and full acknowledgment is given to IHME. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International Public License. To view a copy of this license, please visit http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

For any usage that falls outside of these license restrictions or for general questions about this document, please contact the IHME Global Engagement Team at [email protected].

Citation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease. Seattle, WA: IHME, 2016.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2301 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600 Seattle, WA 98121 USA www.healthdata.org

To express interest in collaborating or request further information, please contact IHME:

Telephone: 1-206-897-2800 Fax: +1-206-897-2899 Email: [email protected]

Cover photo: Eric Bauer flickr photostream, Sesriem, Hardap, Namibia, October 2014

Copyright © 2016 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

ISBN 978-0-9910735-6-6

Acronyms

Terms and definitions

Foreword

Preface

The Global Burden of Disease at a glance

Report highlights

Findings

Preventing health loss: risk factors for ill-health

Comparing Namibia to its peers

Conclusion

Annexes

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Contents

4 Namibia: State of the Nation’s Health

About IHME At the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), we are diagnosing health problems and identifying the world’s solutions to address them. IHME was launched at the University of Washington in 2007 with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the state of Washington. Under the leadership of Christopher J.L. Murray, MD, DPhil, researchers began gathering rigorous, scientific evidence on health to launch a new era of independent, objective assessments. Today, IHME is recognized as one of the leading health metrics organizations in the world, and its research is having an impact on health policy globally. IHME makes its findings available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.

About WHOThe World Health Organization (WHO) is building a better future for people everywhere. Health lays the foundation for vibrant and productive communities, stronger economies, safer nations, and a better world. Our work touches lives around the world every day – often in invisible ways. As the lead health authority within the United Nations (UN) system, we help ensure the safety of the air we breathe, the food we eat, the water we drink, and the medicines and vaccines that treat and protect us. The Organization aims to provide every child, woman, and man with the best chance to lead a healthier, longer life. WHO has been at the center of or behind dramatic improvements in public health since it was established in 1948, gathering the world’s top health experts, defining solutions, delivering guidelines, and mobilizing governments, health workers, and partners to positively impact people’s health. The Organization works in close collaboration with other UN agencies, donors, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), WHO collabo-rating centres, and the private sector. It contributes to promoting the general health of people across the world. Over 7,000 public health experts from all over the globe work for WHO, in most countries worldwide.

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AcronymsChronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Disability-adjusted life years

Global Burden of Disease

Ischemic heart disease

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Lower respiratory infections

Years lived with disability

Years of life lost

Terms and definitions

Years of life lost (YLLs) The number of years of life lost due to premature death. It is calculated by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a standard life expectancy at that age.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) The number of years of life lived with short-term or long-term health loss weighted by the severity of the disabling sequelae of diseases and injuries.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) The main summary measure of population health used in GBD to quantify health loss. DALYs provide a metric that allows comparison of health loss across different diseases and injuries. They are calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; thus, they are a measure of the number of years of healthy life that are lost due to death and nonfatal illness or impairment.

Risk factors Potentially modifiable causes of disease and injury.

COPD

DALYs

GBD

IHD

IHME

LRI

YLDs

YLLs


ForewordA consistent and comparative description of the burden of diseases and injuries, and the risk factors that cause them, is an important input to health decision-making and planning processes. In other words, to align health systems with the populations they serve, policymakers first need to understand the true nature of their country’s health challenges – and how those challenges are shifting over time. When deciding how to set coun-tries’ health agendas, along with information about policies and their costs, evidence on diseases burden can be most useful.

A framework for integrating, validating, analyzing, and disseminating such information is needed to assess the comparative importance of dis-eases, injuries, and risk factors in causing premature death, loss of health, and disability in different populations. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) exercise provides such a tool to quantify health loss from hundreds of dis-eases, injuries, and risk factors, so that health systems can be improved and disparities can be eliminated. GBD research incorporates both the preva-lence of a given disease or risk factor and the relative harm it causes. GBD creates a unique platform to compare the magnitude of diseases, injuries, and risk factors across age groups, sexes, countries, regions, and time.

For decision-makers, health sector leaders, researchers, and informed citizens, the GBD approach provides an opportunity to compare their countries’ health progress to that of other countries, and to understand the leading causes of health loss that could potentially be avoided, like high blood pressure, smoking, and household air pollution. GBD tools allow decision-makers to compare the effects of different diseases, such as malaria versus cancer, and then use that information at home.

Led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is the single largest and most detailed scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. It is truly a global effort, with over 1,000 researchers from almost 100 countries, including 26 low- and middle-income countries, participating in GBD 2013. To make these results more accessible and useful, IHME has distilled large amounts of complicated information into a suite of interactive data visualizations that allow people to make sense of the over 1 billion data points generated.

Disease burden information specific to Namibia will provide important information during the country’s process of making policy decisions related to universal health coverage. WHO, Namibia is very proud to work with IHME and the Ministry of Health and Social Services to examine the burden of disease in Namibia.

Dr. Monir IslamWHO Country Representative to Namibia

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PrefaceThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides policymakers with key insights to reduce premature death and disability by generating annual updates about the health challenges that countries face. Just as economic data help Namibia’s Ministry of Finance assess the state of the economy and make adjustments to promote growth, GBD provides a road map to help policymakers align their health systems with patterns of disease burden in the country. It also helps them identify priority areas for intervention, such as tobacco smoking, poor diets, and drug and alcohol use.

We are very pleased with the strong collaboration between IHME and WHO in different areas aimed at improving population health across coun-tries. This report, which focuses on the burden of disease in Namibia, is one of the products of this collaboration which will be useful to guide the country’s efforts toward universal health care coverage.

The engagement with WHO Namibia represents an exciting advancement and extension of the collaboration that began with WHO in the 1990s and was solidified in 2015 with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between IHME and WHO Headquarters. This MOU lays the foundation for a mutually beneficial collaboration, with both organizations working together to build country capacity and uptake of global health estimates for decision-making, to share data, including helping to facilitate access to additional data to improve global health estimates, and to share knowledge on methodological advancements.

More than 1,000 collaborators in 93 countries contributed to the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study. These collaborators have enriched GBD research by vetting the methodology and results and identifying important datasets to fill gaps. GBD collaborators have also boosted GBD’s status as a global public good, raising awareness of the study’s findings in their home countries and making it an even better tool for local health policymaking. In addition to its collaborations with WHO, IHME is also working with researchers in China, Australia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom to produce local-level disease burden estimates to inform local health planning decisions.

It is my sincere hope that the findings presented in this report can be used to improve Namibians’ quality of life, leading to longer and healthier lives for all.

Dr. Christopher J.L. MurrayInstitute Director and co-founder of the Global Burden of Disease


Acknowledgments

Namibia: The State of the Nation’s Health is the result of collaboration between the WHO Namibia Country Office and IHME.

In particular, we thank Prof. Monir Islam and Dr. Tomas Zapata from WHO Namibia for providing critical input and support.

Findings in this report came from the Global Burden of Disease study coordinated by IHME, a multipartner research enterprise from which comprehensive and comparable annual estimates of disease burden by country, age, and sex are produced for more than 300 causes of disease and injury and 79 risk factors. IHME is the coordinating center for more than 1,700 GBD experts from more than 124 countries. Data are from papers published in The Lancet that are part of the 2013 GBD update.

The research presented in this report is based on the following studies published in The Lancet:

• Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. 2015 Jan; 385(9963):117–171.

• Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Published online June 8, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140- 6736(15)60692-4.

• Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition. Published online August 26, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140- 6736(15)61340-X.

• Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behav-ioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Published online September 11, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2

At IHME, Christopher Murray, William Heisel, Tom Achoki, and Katherine Leach-Kemon provided leadership in overseeing the creation of this report. Michael MacIntyre, Kelsey Bannon, and Jamie Schoenborn provided stra-tegic guidance and operational support for launching the project. Analyses were conducted by Michelle Subart. Kevin O’Rourke provided overarching production support and content review. Adrienne Chew edited the report, and Michelle Subart fact-checked it. Dawn Shepard served as the report’s graphic designer. This report was written by Jed Blore.

Funding for this report came from WHO Namibia Country Office.

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About the Global Burden of DiseaseThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is a powerful platform for understanding the main drivers of poor health at international, national, and local levels. Coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), GBD measures all of the years lost when people die prematurely or suffer from disability. It estimates healthy years lost from over 300 diseases, injuries, and risk factors from 1990 to 2013. The GBD findings are available for 188 countries. This project will allow decision-makers to rank health problems, understand how health trends have changed over time, and compare health outcomes across communities. This study provides the most comprehensive picture of health loss across countries to date. GBD results can also be viewed through publicly accessible visualization tools on IHME’s website at http://www.healthdata.org/results/data-visualizations.

Global Burden of Disease methodsGBD uses more than 50,000 data sources from around the world to estimate disease burden.

As a first step, GBD researchers estimate child and adult mortality using data sources such as vital and sample registration systems, censuses, and house-hold surveys. Years lost due to premature death from different causes are calculated using data from vital registration with medical certification of causes of death when available, and sources such as verbal autopsies in countries where medical certification of causes of death is lacking. Years lived with disability are estimated using sources such as cancer registries, data from outpatient and inpatient facilities, and direct measurements of hearing, vision, and lung function. Once they have estimated years lost due to premature death and years lived with disability, GBD researchers sum the two estimates to obtain disability-adjusted life years. Finally, researchers quantify the amount of premature death and disability attributable to different risk factors using data on exposure to and effects of the different risk factors. GBD researchers use advanced statistical modeling to estimate dis-ease burden. As with any modeled estimates, such as

weather forecasts and gross domestic product data, the findings in this report have limitations, such as those stemming from poor-quality and/or missing data. In Namibia, for example, data on the leading causes of death, and particularly cardiovascular diseases, injuries, drug and alcohol use disorders, and risk factor exposures are lacking. Efforts to improve data avail-ability and quality in Namibia will boost the accuracy of GBD findings.

For more information about GBD methods, see the papers referenced in the acknowledgments sec-tion of this report.

Utility of the Global Burden of Disease for policymakingGBD results allow decision-makers to compare healthy years lost from fatal conditions, such as cancer, to those lost from nonfatal conditions, such as low back and neck pain. The study provides more policy- relevant information than cause of death data by shedding light on conditions that cut lives short, not just those that kill people primarily in old age. The GBD study also provides insight on potentially preventable causes of disease and injuries, known as risk factors. GBD tracks 79 risk factors, which range from poor diets and high blood sugar to unsafe water and micro-nutrient deficiencies. Examining the ranking of dis-eases, injuries, and risk factors in a country, province, or county can help policymakers decide where to invest scarce resources to maximize health gains.

The GBD approach is being applied at the local level, as seen in recent publications examining dis-ease burden across China and the United Kingdom.

Learn moreTo learn more about participating in GBD research, contact the GBD Secretariat at [email protected].

GBD Technical Training Workshops provide in-depth training in GBD methods, results, and data visualizations. For more information, visit http://www.healthdata.org/gbd/training.

The Global Burden of Disease at a glance


11

Report highlights

Life expectancy rebounding from dramatic declines in the 1990s and 2000s• Between 1990 and 2004 life expectancy for males

and females decreased by nine and 12 years, respec-tively, mainly due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

• Between 2004 and 2013 life expectancy rebounded and rose by 11 years for females but only by six years for males.

• Life expectancy for males in 2013 was still below 1990 levels.

Progress and challenges• The peak of the HIV/AIDS epidemic occurred in

1998, which was followed by a dramatic decline in the number of new cases for both males and females. Rates of death from HIV/AIDS peaked in 2005. By 2013, death rates had more than halved for females, and almost halved for males.

• Despite Namibia’s progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS, it remains the leading cause of death and premature mortality for all ages, killing up to half of all males and females aged 40-44 years in 2013. Tuberculosis and lower respiratory infec-tions were the next leading causes of death and premature mortality in 2013, behind HIV/AIDS.

• Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as causes of premature mortality, disability, and total health loss (DALYs) rose in importance over the period 2000 to 2013. Significant rises were observed for stroke, low back and neck pain, ischemic heart disease, depressive disorders, COPD, and diabetes. In con-trast, significant decreases were observed for some communicable conditions, including diarrheal diseases, neonatal conditions, and malaria.

• Injuries, including suicide (self-harm), road injury, and homicide (interpersonal violence), dispropor-tionately killed young males in 2013. Almost half of all deaths in males 20-24 years old are from injuries, compared to just 15% for females. Among the injury categories for males 20-24 years old, self-harm was the leading cause of death, followed by interpersonal violence.

Preventing death • Risk factors are key drivers of the diseases and

injuries that kill people prematurely. Unsafe sex was the leading risk factor for death for both males and females. Alcohol and drug use was the second-leading risk for males, rising from eighth in 2000.

• Risk factors for non-communicable diseases, partic-ularly cardiovascular disease (high blood pressure, poor diet, obesity/overweight) remained among the leading risks of death for both males (third, fourth, and ninth in 2013, respectively) and females (second, third, and fourth in 2013, respectively).

• Despite increased global awareness of health risks of tobacco smoke, it remains a leading risk for males (fifth) and females (ninth).

Comparing Namibia to its peers• Compared to other countries in sub-Saharan

Africa, only Botswana had a higher life expec-tancy for both sexes combined in 2013 (66 years versus 61 years for Namibia)

• In 2013, Namibia had the lowest rate of new cases of HIV/AIDS, and the lowest mortality rate from HIV/AIDS among countries comprising southern sub-Saharan Africa (Botswana, Lesotho, Swa-ziland, South Africa, and Zimbabwe).

• Of the six countries in the southern sub-Saharan African region, Namibia had the third-highest rates of injury deaths among males.


13

FindingsIn Namibia, life expectancy for males and females can be separated into two distinct phases: a phase of decline (phase 1, from 1990 to 2004), and a phase of increase (phase 2, from 2004 to 2013; see Figure 1a). In phase 1, as the HIV epidemic began to take hold, life expectancy for males and females dramatically declined. For females, life expectancy decreased by 12 years (66 years in 1990 to 54 years in 2004). For males, life expectancy decreased by nine years (59 years in 1990 to 50 years in 2004). In phase 2, as the incidence of HIV declined, life expectancy increased for both males and females. For males, life expectancy increased by six years (from 50 years in 2004 to 56 years in 2013). For females, life expectancy increased by 11 years (from 54 years in 1990 to 65 years in 2013). However, life expectancy for males and females is still not at the level it was in 1990. In addition, the gap in life expectancy between males and females has grown as improvements in male life expectancy have plateaued since 2011 (in 2013, the gap between life expectancy for males and females was nine years; in 1990 this gap was seven years).

HIV/AIDS and TB contributed a decrease of 3.6 years of life expec-tancy from 1990 to 2013 for both sexes combined (see Annex Figure 1). However, this decrease was slightly offset by reductions in mortality from diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory conditions, and other infec-tious diseases, which together contributed to an increase of 1.6 years in life expectancy (see Annex Figure 4).

Figure 1aLife expectancy for males and females, Namibia, 1990–2013

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females 67.7 74.3


Figure 1b compares life expectancy in Namibia to other countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa: Lesotho, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Botswana. Of these countries, in 2013 only Botswana had higher life expectancy for both sexes combined (66 years). Lesotho had the lowest life expectancy (48 years). The sub-Saharan Africa region, com-prising Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho, had an overall life expectancy of 60 years in 2013 for both sexes combined.

It is clear that the HIV epidemic had a substantial impact on health in Namibia. Figure 2 shows the dramatic rise in rates of new cases (inci-dence rates) of HIV from 1990 to 1998 for males and females. Over this period, rates of new cases of HIV for females increased almost 10-fold, from 160 per 100,000 in 1990 to over 1,000 per 100,000 in 1998. Sim-ilarly for males, rates of new cases increased from 240 per 100,000 in 1990 to 1,000 per 100,000 in 1998. From 1998 to 2013, rates of new cases of HIV declined almost as dramatically as they had increased. For males, rates of new cases declined to 290 per 100,000 in 2013. For females, inci-dent cases declined to 320 per 100,000 in 2013. Though these rates are still higher than in 1990, they are far below numbers at the peak of the epidemic, and the trend suggests further declines post-2013.

It is also useful for health resource planning to consider the total number of new cases. In 2013, there were approximately 3,900 new cases of infections for females, and 3,100 for males (see Figure 3), falling from the peak in 1998 of 9,400 new cases in females and 8,200 new cases in males.

Figure 4 compares rates of new cases of HIV in Namibia to the coun-tries in southern sub-Saharan Africa. Of note, in 2013 Namibia had the lowest rate of new cases (300 per 100,000, both sexes combined) in the region. Swaziland had the highest rate (810 per 100,000). The peak of the epidemic occurred earlier in all other countries except South Africa, which also peaked in the same year as Namibia (1998). In 1998,

Figure 1bLife expectancy for males and females combined, sub-Saharan Africa, 2013

Namibia Life expectancy61 Years

Age

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 8448

Namibia has the second–highest life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa Life expectancy for males and females declined dramatically from 1990 to 2004, then rebounded from 2004 to 2013, to be second highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa behind Botswana.

Findings 15

Figure 2New cases of HIV/AIDS per 100,000 people for males and females, Namibia, 1990–2013. Shaded areas indicate the uncertainty interval around each estimate.

1,000

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Figure 3Numbers of new cases of HIV/AIDS for males and females, Namibia, 1990–2013. Shaded areas indi-cate the uncertainty interval around each estimate.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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rates of new cases in South Africa were 50% higher (1,500 per 100,000) than in Namibia. Also, South Africa’s rate of new cases has not declined as rapidly as Namibia’s rate, and in 2013 South Africa had a new case rate of 710 per 100,000 compared to Namibia’s rate of 300 per 100,000.

In Namibia, death rates from HIV peaked in 2005 (see Figure 5) for males (510 deaths per 100,000 people) and females (460 deaths per 100,000 people). In 2013, the death rate for females more than halved from the peak in 2005 (170 per 100,000 in 2013). The death rate for males also halved from the peak in 2005 (240 per 100,000 in 2011) before increasing again from 2011 to 2013, to 280 per 100,000.

Comparing Namibia to other countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa (Lesotho, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana), Namibia had the lowest mortality rate from HIV/AIDS in 2013 (220 per 100,000 both sexes combined), followed by Botswana (350 per 100,000; see Figure 6). Lesotho had the highest HIV/AIDS mortality rate, at 620 per 100,000 in 2013. For all countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS mortality rates are lower in females compared to males.

Progress and challengesUnderstanding the health progress the country has made in HIV/AIDS and in other areas, as well as the problems it faces, is essential for health planning and policymaking. While mortality from HIV/AIDS has improved and new cases have decreased, an examination of the leading causes of

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Botswana

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

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Namibia

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Figure 4New cases of HIV per 100,000 people for both sexes combined, Namibia and countries in Southern sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2013

HIV/AIDS New cases of HIV/AIDS grew rapidly from 1990, peaking in 1998 and then declining almost as rapidly from 1998 to 2013.

Findings 17

Botswana

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

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Figure 6Deaths from HIV/AIDS per 100,000 people, both sexes combined. Namibia and countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2013

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Figure 5Deaths from HIV/AIDS per 100,000 people for males and females, Namibia, 1990–2013. Shaded areas indicate the uncertainty interval around each estimate.


death in Namibia indicates that it remains the number-one cause for both males and females since the year 2000 (see Figures 7a and 7b).

Figures 7a and 7b show how the other leading causes of death for males and females changed between 2000 and 2013. For example, tuber-culosis remained the second-leading cause of death for both males and females, and lower respiratory infections remained the third-leading cause for males and the fourth-leading cause for females over the same period. Cardiovascular diseases have increased in rank for both males and females, with ischemic heart disease rising from fifth to fourth for males and sixth to fifth for females. Stroke (cerebrovascular disease) has increased from sixth to fifth for males, and from fifth to third for females. This highlights the importance of focusing attention on NCDs, especially cardiovascular diseases, and their associated risk factors, to tackle the rising importance of these leading causes of death in Namibia.

2000 Ranking 2013 Ranking

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases


Cerebrovascular disease


Diabetes

Hypertensive heart disease

COPD

Other neonatal

Preterm birth complications

Asthma

Road injuries

Malaria

Neonatal encephalopathy

Other cardiovascular

Endo/metab/blood/immune

Cardiomyopathy

Meningitis

Self–harm

Interpersonal violence

Chronic kidney disease

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis




Diarrheal diseases

Diabetes


COPD


Asthma


Other neonatal

Cardiomyopathy

Road injuries





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COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseNote:

Females

Figure 7aLeading causes of death for females, Namibia, 2000–2013

Communicable, maternal, newborn, and nutritional disorders

same or increasedecrease

Non-communicable diseases Injuries

HIV/AIDS In 2013, Namibia had the lowest rate of new HIV/AIDS cases and the lowest death rate from HIV/AIDS in the southern sub-Saharan African region.

Note: COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Endo/metab/blood/immune = Endocrine, metabolic, blood, and immune disorders

Findings 19

Namibia has made significant progress in reducing deaths from diarrheal diseases. For males and females, diarrheal diseases fell in rank, from fourth for males and third for females in 2000, to sixth in 2013.

There are important differences in the leading causes of death for males and females. For males, injuries feature prominently in the top 10, with suicide (self-harm) and interpersonal violence both rising in importance from 2000 to 2013 (self-harm increased from eighth to sev-enth; interpersonal violence increased from 13th to 10th; road injuries remained ninth). These same causes do not feature in the top 10 causes of death for females (self-harm remained 20th, road injuries were 15th, and interpersonal violence was 18th).

Causes connected by a dashed line indicate a decrease in ranking from 2000 to 2013 while causes connected by a solid line indicate an increase or no change in ranking from 2000 to 2013. Communicable,

Figure 7bLeading causes of death for males, Namibia, 2000–2013




HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Lower respiratory infection

Diarrheal diseases



COPD

Self–harm

Road injuries

Malaria


Other neonatal


Diabetes


Asthma


Mechanical forces

Meningitis



Drug use disorders

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Tuberculosis




Diarrheal diseases

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HIV/AIDS remained the leading cause of death in 2013 despite Namibia’s tremendous progress in tackling HIV/AIDS.





neonatal, maternal, and nutritional conditions are indicated by red boxes, non-communicable conditions are indicated by blue boxes, and injuries are indicated by green boxes.

Figure 8 shows how the causes of death differ across age groups in Namibia for males (top) and females (bottom). As in Figures 7a and 7b previously, the disparity of injury deaths in males versus females can be seen clearly in the age patterns from ages 10-35. The reasons for this disparity are to be found in an examination of risks. That is, males engage in behavior that increases the risk for injuries at a higher rate than females (alcohol and drug use). A further examination of risks for health loss is presented later in this report. Figure 8 indicates that the peak in injury deaths occurs for males between the ages of 20 and 24 years. Self-harm and interpersonal violence contribute to almost a third of all deaths in this age group (29%), with unintentional injuries and transport injuries contributing a further 10% each (total 49%). Thus, almost half of all deaths are attributed to these injury categories. For females, in contrast, self-harm and interpersonal violence contribute only 8% of deaths, and unintentional and transport injuries contribute a further 4% each (total, 16%).

Given the importance of self-harm and interpersonal violence as causes of young male deaths, Figure 9 provides more detailed infor-mation. This figure reveals that self-harm is responsible for the largest proportion of male deaths, peaking at 18% in ages 20-24. Interpersonal violence contributes a further 11% of deaths (total 29%). At age 40, these two causes contribute to 6% of deaths.

A comparison of self-harm, interpersonal violence, and road injuries in Namibia and other countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa is given for males and females in Figure 10, which indicates that males are injured at far greater rates than females. Only Lesotho and Swaziland have higher rates of injury-related deaths in males.

Distinct patterns of death across the lifespanThe percent of deaths due to different causes by age, given in Figure 8, indicates three additional patterns of death across the lifespan that correspond to three periods of life: early childhood, young adolescence to mid-adulthood, and late adulthood.

First, in children under 5, deaths are overwhelmingly caused by neo-natal disorders and diarrhea, lower respiratory conditions, and other infectious causes (see also Annex Figure 1). Second, as early as 10-14 years of age, HIV/AIDS and TB are leading causes of death, accounting for over a quarter of deaths in children in this age group (39%). The age breakdown for HIV/AIDS is given in Figure 11.

Figure 11 shows a peak in HIV/AIDS deaths in 40-44 year olds, which contributes to almost half of all deaths in males and females in this age group (48%). TB contributes a further 13%.

The third distinct pattern visible in Figure 9 corresponds to mid-to-late adulthood, beginning at age 55. For both males and females, car-diovascular diseases account for almost a quarter of all deaths in this age group (24%, 55-59 years of age). The age pattern and breakdown of the cardiovascular diseases category into their various causes indicates that the peak for cardiovascular deaths comes in the 80+ age group (see Annex Figure 6). Deaths are slightly higher from stroke (cerebrovas-cular disease; 16% in 80+ age group; see Annex Figure 6) than ischemic heart disease (14% in 80+ age group; see Annex Figure 6). Cancers

Males die from injuries at much higher rates than females, particularly from:

• self-harm

• road injuries

• interpersonal violence

Males aged 20-24 Deaths from self-harm, road injuries, and interpersonal violence peak in males aged 20-24. Together, these causes account for almost 50% of all deaths in this age group.

Findings 21

Figure 8Percentage breakdown of total deaths by age group, for males and females, Namibia, 2013

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Perc

ent o

f to

tal d

eath

s

Males

Females

Perc

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tal d

eath

s

100%

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

80+ years

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

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20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

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60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

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80+ years

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Cancers

Cardiovascular diseases

Chronic respiratory diseases

Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases

Neurological disorders

Mental & substance use disorders

HIV/AIDS & tuberculosis

Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders

Nutritional deficiencies

Other communicable, maternal,newborn, and nutritional disorders

Diabetes/urog/blood/endo

Musculoskeletal disorders

Other non-communicable

Transport injuries

Unintentional injuries

Self-harm & violence

War & disaster

Note: LRI: lower respiratory infections

Diabetes/urog/blood/endo: Diabetes and urogenital, blood, and endocrine disorders


30

25

20

15

10

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0

Perc

ent o

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80+ years

Self-harm Interpersonal violence

Figure 9Percent of total deaths from self-harm and interpersonal violence by age group, males, Namibia, 2013

050100150 0 50 100 150

Botswana

Zimbabwe

Namibia

Swaziland

Lesotho

S. Africa

Deaths per 100,000Deaths per 100,000

Males Females

Figure 10Age-standardized injury deaths per 100,000 for males and females, Namibia and countries in south-ern sub-Saharan Africa, 2013

Self-harm Interpersonal violenceTransport injuries

Findings 23

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+ y

ears

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40

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0

Figure 11Percent of total deaths from HIV/AIDS and TB by age group, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

Tuberculosis HIV/AIDS

cause fewer deaths in this phase of life than chronic respiratory dis-eases (peak cancer deaths occur in ages 60-64, 6%, compared with 12% for chronic respiratory diseases in ages 70-74). COPD is the largest cause of death of the chronic respiratory diseases (8% in ages 70-74; see the Annex), followed by asthma (3%).

To gain a clearer picture of Namibia’s most important health prob-lems, it is essential to compare the impact of different diseases and injuries by taking into account not just causes of death, but also causes of early death (premature mortality) and disability.

Preventing premature mortality While deaths are a commonly used metric for population health, a focus solely on deaths gives equal weight to causes of death regardless of age. For example, a death at age 90 is given the same weight as a death at age 10. Decision-makers want to know which causes, injuries, and risks lead to premature mortality. The GBD study uses a metric to count the premature aspect of death, called Years of Life Lost (YLLs) that quantifies the number of years a person loses at the age of their death. For every death from a particular cause, the number of years lost is estimated based on the highest life expectancy in the deceased’s age group. This metric gives greater weight to causes of deaths occurring at younger ages. Figure 12 provides a ranking of the YLLs by sex in Namibia from 2000 to 2013.

Figure 12 shows that the leading causes of premature mortality in Namibia in 2013 for males and females, and trends over time, are very

Premature mortality

Premature mortality, in comparison to deaths, takes into account the years of life lost in comparision to a reference life expectancy. Conditions that typically cause deaths in younger ages increase in relative importance, while conditions that typically cause deaths in older ages decrease in relative importance, compared to simple rankings of causes of death.


HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases


Other neonatal




Malaria

Road injuries


Diabetes

Meningitis


Protein-energy malnutrition


Asthma

Congenital anomalies

Self-harm


COPD

Cardiomyopathy

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis


Diarrheal diseases


Other neonatal



Diabetes


Road injuries




Malaria


Self-harm

COPD

Cardiomyopathy

Asthma

Meningitis


123456789

1011121314151617181920

2122

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2124

Females



HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases



Other neonatal

Self-harm

Road injuries

Malaria





COPD



Mechanical forces

Meningitis

Diabetes

Asthma

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis


Diarrheal diseases

Self-harm

Road injuries



Other neonatal




COPD

Malaria

Diabetes


Drug use disorders


Mechanical forces

Asthma

21 Meningitis

23 Protein-energy malnutrition

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1011121314151617181920

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2123

Males

Figure 12Leading causes of premature mortality (YLLs) for females and males, all ages, Namibia, 2000–2013






Findings 25

similar to the leading causes of deaths. However, as YLLs place more weight on the causes of death that occur in younger age groups, the rankings for causes of death that kill children and young adults (neo-natal conditions, diarrheal diseases, self-harm, road injuries, and inter-personal violence) are slightly higher. Similarly, the rankings for causes of death that kill older adults (like ischemic heart disease and stroke), are slightly lower when considering YLLs.

Non-fatal health outcomesAs life expectancy for Namibians improves, they are likely to increas-ingly suffer from disabling conditions. This trend has important impli-cations for the health system which must care for the growing number of patients. For example, low back and neck pain was the leading cause of disability in 2000 and in 2013 (see Figure 13). In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, disability includes any short- or long-term suffering and takes into account the severity of a given disease or injury. Disability from other causes remained stable, with the notable exception of diabetes, which rose from 25th in 2000 to 15th in 2013. Declines in disability from 2000 to 2013 were recorded for diarrheal diseases (from 17th in 2000 to 22nd in 2013), falls (14th in 2000 to 26th in 2013) and malaria (from 16th in 2000 to 29th in 2013). Of the top 20 causes of disability in 2013, 17 were NCDs, and only three were com-municable and nutritional diseases (iron-deficiency anemia, third, HIV/AIDS, fourth, and TB, ninth).


Low back & neck pain

Depressive disorders

Iron-deficiency anemia

HIV/AIDS

Skin diseases

Sense organ diseases

Anxiety disorders

COPD

Tuberculosis

Intellectual disability

Migraine

Alcohol use disorders


Falls

Oral disorders

Diabetes




HIV/AIDS

Skin diseases

Sense organ diseases

Anxiety disorders

COPD

Tuberculosis

Migraine




Oral disorders

Diabetes

Falls

1

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26


Figure 13Leading causes of disability (YLDs), both sexes, Namibia, 2000–2013




Low back and neck pain, and depressive disorderswere the leading causes of disability among Namibians in 2013.



While disability is most common in older people, it can affect a person of any age and can interfere with children’s education and adults’ ability to work. Figure 14 shows how the causes of disability vary across the lifespan. Disability from nutritional deficiencies (particularly iron-deficiency anemia, with a smaller contribution from protein- energy malnutrition, see Annex Figure 7) is a major problem for chil-dren up to age 10, contributing over 50% of disability in the youngest age groups. From age 10 to 50, disability from mental illness and substance use disorders becomes increasingly pronounced. In Namibians aged 20 to 24, mental illness and substance use disorders contribute to over 40% of all disability. Within this category, depressive disorders are the largest contributor of disability (14%), followed by anxiety disorders (6%) and alcohol use disorders (5.5%; see Figure 15). The leading cause of disability overall, low back and neck pain, tends to affect older adults, peaking in the 55-59 year age group (16%; see Annex Figure 8).

0–6 d

ays

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ays

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ays

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80+ years

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ent o

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LDs

100%

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40%

20%

0%

Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster

Figure 14Percentage breakdown of total disability (YLDs) by age group, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

Note: LRI: lower respiratory infections

Diabetes/urog/blood/endo: Diabetes and urogenital, blood, and endocrine disorders

Findings 27

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

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28–364 d

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80+ years

Perc

ent o

f to

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40%

20%

30%

10%

0%

Schizophrenia


Drug use disorders


Bipolar disorder

Anxiety disorders

Eating disorders

Autistic spectrum disorders

ADHD

Conduct disorder


Other mental & substance use disorders

Figure 15Percent of total disability (YLDs) by age group for mental and substance use disorders, both sexes, 2013, Namibia

A fuller understanding of Namibia’s health problems

To gain the clearest picture of Namibia’s most important health problems, it is essential to compare the impact of different diseases and injuries by taking into account not just early death, but also disability. The metric that allows us to compare years lost from early death and disability combined is known as “disease burden,” or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Figure 16 provides this comparison of disease burden from different causes, revealing that HIV/AIDS remains the single most important health problem in the country in 2013. Reflected in Figure 16 is progress in tackling diarrheal diseases (declining in rank from third in 2000 to fourth in 2013) and malaria (declining in rank from seventh in 2000 to 18th in 2013), while burden of disease from NCDs such as stroke has risen in importance. Injuries that disproportionately affect young males increased in importance from 2000 to 2013. This includes self-harm, which rose from 11th in 2000 to seventh in 2013, and inter-personal violence, which rose from 13th to 12th in 2013. Road injuries remained the eighth-leading cause of disease burden. Figure 16 also highlights the importance of going beyond death statistics to understand


Figure 16Leading causes of disease burden (DALYs), both sexes, Namibia, 2000–2013


HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases


Other neonatal


Malaria

Road injuries



Self-harm




COPD



HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis


Diarrheal diseases


Other neonatal

Self-harm

Road injuries






COPD



Malaria

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18






a country’s health problems. In addition to low back and neck pain, depressive disorders, which tend to cause disability rather than death, were among the top 15 causes of disease burden (13th).

When analyzing the leading causes of disease burden by sex, some important differences emerge (see Figure 17). Self-harm (fifth), road injuries (sixth), and interpersonal violence (seventh) were all among the top 10 causes of burden for males, but not for females. In contrast, depressive disorders (fifth), cerebrovascular disease (sixth), and low back and neck pain (seventh) were among the top 10 causes of burden for females, but not for males.

Information on the patterns of disease burden from different causes across age groups can be useful for tailoring health services and inter-ventions to specific age groups. This information is given for disease burden in Annex Figure 9.

The leading causes of disease burden (disability and premature mortality) in Namibia in 2013 were:

1. HIV/AIDS

2. tuberculosis

3. lower respiratory infections

Findings 29

Figure 17Leading causes of disease burden (DALYs), males (top) and females (bottom), Namibia, 2000–2013


HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases



Other neonatal

Self-harm

Road injuries

Malaria




HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis


Diarrheal diseases

Self-harm

Road injuries


Other neonatal




Malaria

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HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis

Diarrheal diseases


Other neonatal





Malaria


Diabetes

HIV/AIDS

Tuberculosis


Diarrheal diseases




Other neonatal


Diabetes


Malaria

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18

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Females





31

Preventing health loss: risks factors for ill-healthRisk factors are key drivers of the diseases and injuries that cause burden. By addressing these risk factors, much of Namibia’s disease burden could be reduced. Risk factors fall into three different cate-gories: behavioral, metabolic, and environmental/occupational. Given that HIV is the leading cause of deaths and premature mortality in Namibia, it is not surprising that unsafe sex is the leading risk factor for both males and females, and has remained the leading risk from the year 2000 to 2013 (see Figure 18). Almost 19% of deaths are attributable to unsafe sex (see Figure 18).

Figure 18Leading risk factors attributable to deaths in Namibia, 2000–2013


Unsafe sex

High systolic blood pressure

Dietary risks

Tobacco smoke

Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing

High fasting plasma glucose

Air pollution

Alcohol and drug use

Child and maternal malnutrition

High body mass index

Unsafe sex



Dietary risks

Tobacco smoke


Air pollution




1

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Unsafe sex



Dietary risks



Air pollution


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Sexual abuse and violence


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Dietary risks




Air pollution


Tobacco smoke

Sexual abuse and violence


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Metabolic risks same or increasedecrease

Environmental/occupational risks Behavioral risks


Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster

Note:

WaSH = Water, sanitation, and handwashing

LRI = lower respiratory infections

NTDs = neglected tropical diseases

urog = urogenital diseases

endo = endocrinological disorders

Unsafe sex

High blood pressure

Dietary risks

Alcohol & drug use



Tobacco

Air pollution

WaSH

Low glomerular filtration

Malnutrition

Low physical activity

Sexual abuse & violence

High total cholesterol

Occupational risks

Other environmental

Low bone mineral density

15%10%5%0%

Figure 19Top risk factors for deaths, all ages, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

In addition, given the large burden of injuries among young males, it is also unsurprising that alcohol and drug use is the second-leading risk of death for males (rising from eighth in 2000), and only sixth for females (though this is higher than in the year 2000, when it was the 12th leading risk for death). Ten percent of deaths are attributable to alcohol and drug use (see Figure 19).

High systolic blood pressure is an important risk for both males (third) and females (second). High blood pressure causes ischemic heart disease and stroke, which, as indicated in Figures 7a and 7b earlier in this report, are in the top five leading causes of death for males and females, and increased in importance from 2000 to 2013. Twelve per-cent of all deaths are attributed to high blood pressure.

Having a poor diet is the third and fourth leading risk for females and males, respectively; 10% of deaths are attributable to this risk (see Figure 19). Dietary risks include eating too little fruit, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts and seeds, and eating too much salt, red meat, and processed meat, as well as consuming trans fats. The main diseases associated with poor diets are ischemic heart disease and stroke.

Despite the increased awareness of the health risks of tobacco globally, it remains a leading risk of death for males (fifth) and females

Some of the leading causes of disease burden for females do not feature among the top 10 causes of disease burden in males, and vice versa. These include:

Females 5. depressive disorders

Males 5. self-harm

Preventing helath loss: risk factors for ill-health 33

(ninth); 6% of all deaths are attributable to this risk (see Figures 19 and 20). Tobacco smoke is a major contributor to lung cancer and COPD. Tobacco smoke also contributes to other diseases such as ischemic heart disease, stroke, and colorectal cancers. The number of smokers is increasing in Namibia, which is largely due to population growth (see Annex Figures 10 and 11).

The metabolic risks of high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose are leading risks of death for females (fourth and fifth respectively) and males (ninth and sixth respectively), and have either remained the same since 2000 (high fasting plasma glucose for males), or increased in rank (high body mass index for males and females, high fasting plasma glucose for females). High body mass index is a measure of obesity and overweight, and is a major cause of diabetes as well as being associated with ischemic heart disease. High fasting plasma glu-cose (high blood sugar) is a major cause of diabetes but is also linked to deaths from cardiovascular diseases and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis.

As Namibian males die from injury deaths at much higher rates than females, it is important to look at the leading risk factor related to injuries (alcohol and drug use) for males separately. Both the rate (Figure 20) and number (Figure 21) of injury deaths attributable to alcohol and drug use rose dramatically from 1990 to 2010. However, the large uncertainty intervals from 2005 to 2013 indicate the need for additional information for this risk factor.

To identify areas where the biggest health improvements can be made in every age group, it is necessary to understand the risk factors that are the most problematic in different age groups. In ages 0 to 5, malnutrition and water and sanitation were the leading risks, contrib-uting to 21% and 14%, respectively, of deaths due to diarrheal diseases,

Figure 20Injury deaths per 100,000 attributable to alcohol and drug use, males, Namibia, 1990–2013. Lines indicate uncertainty interval.

1990

50

0

10

20

30

40

1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Dea

ths

per

100

,000

1. Unsafe sex was the leading risk of death for both males and females in 2013, followed by:

Males 2. alcohol and drug use

Females 2. high blood pressure


LRI, and other common infectious diseases (see Annex Figure 12). In ages 15-49, unsafe sex was the leading risk of death, contributing to 35% of deaths (see Annex Figure 13). The second-leading risk in this age group was alcohol and drug use, associated with almost 15% of total deaths (see Annex Figure 13). In ages 50-69, high blood pressure was the leading risk, contributing to over 20% of deaths, followed by poor diet, contributing to almost 20% of deaths. This was mainly due to effects on cardiovascular disease, with a smaller effect due to diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases.

Even though people are dying from poor diets, tobacco smoke, and obesity/overweight later in life, it is their aggregate exposure to these risks over the course of a lifetime that causes these deaths.

Figure 21Numbers of injury deaths attributable to alcohol and drug use, males, Namibia, 1990–2013. Lines indicate uncertainty interval.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

500

600

0

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200

300

400

Dea

ths

per

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Metabolic risks are among the top 10 risks of death for males and females. These risks are associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

35

Comparing Namibia to its peersComparing a country’s health system performance to a set of relevant countries can help to identify diseases, injuries, or risk factors where outcomes are worse or better than countries in similar circumstances. The leading causes of death for Namibia are compared to other coun-tries in southern sub-Saharan Africa in Figure 22. The top nine causes of death in these comparison countries (Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are very similar, with the exception of Zimbabwe (which has a lower burden of COPD, see Figure 22). South Africa and Zimbabwe also have notably higher death rates from chronic kidney disease.

1 1 1

2 4 2 2 3

3 2 7 4

4 5 3 4 6

5 4 3 2

6 8 6 7 13

7 9 8 5

8 7 5 6

9 9 8 9 12

10 11 19 10 15

11 13 13 11 10

12 22 14 20 14

17 22 15 48

14 28 29 25 49

18 15 16 24

16 14 10 14 8

17 12 12 12

10 11 13 27

22 19 24 28 67

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26 16 17 17 16

32 25 28 24 40

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Namibia S Africa Swaziland Zimbabwe

HIV/AIDS


Tuberculosis



Diabetes

COPD

Diarrheal diseases


Self–harm

Asthma

Road injuries

Cardiomyopathy




Alzheimer’ disease


Malaria

Adverse medical treatment

Epilepsy

Falls

Other neonatal


Cirrhosis due to alcohol

Figure 22Heat map of death rates for leading causes of deaths, per 100,000, age-standardized, for southern sub-Saharan African countries, 2013. Cells are color-coded according to rank. Causes are ordered according to their rank for Namibia.


Endo = endocrine

Urog = urogenital

Namibian children had the second lowest probability of dying before their fifth birthday among countries in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2013.


Another way to evaluate Namibia’s health progress is to compare the probability of death by broad age groups to countries around the world. Figure 23 provides the risk of dying for males and females aged 0 to 14 years. Namibian children have the second-lowest probability of dying in the region (4% for females, 5% for males), behind Botswana.

For Namibians aged 15-49, the probability of dying is the lowest in the region for females, and the third lowest for males (behind Botswana and South Africa; see Figure 24).

Figure 23Probability of death in Namibia and comparison countries, males and females, 0-14 years, 2013

LRI = lower respiratory infectionsNTDs = neglected tropical diseasesurog = urogenital diseasesendo = endocrinological disorders

Note: Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster

Germany

Italy

France

United Kingdom

Canada

United States

Saudi Arabia

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Brazil

Botswana

Namibia

South Africa

India

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Lesotho

0% 0%

FemalesMales

Probability of deathProbability of death

2% 2%4% 4%6% 6%8% 8%10% 10%12% 12%

Comparing Namibia to its peers 37

Figure 24Probability of death in Namibia and comparison countries, males and females, 15-49 years, 2013

Italy

Germany

United Kingdom

Canada

France

Saudi Arabia

United States

Turkey

Argentina

Mexico

Brazil

India

Namibia

Botswana

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Lesotho

0% 0%

FemalesMales

Probability of deathProbability of death

50% 60%50%60% 40%40% 30%30% 20%20% 10%10%


Note: Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster


39

ConclusionNamibia has gone through two distinct health-related phases. The first phase, from 1990 to 2004, was characterized by rising cases and deaths due to HIV/AIDS, which caused life expectancy to decrease dramatically from 1990 levels. However, in phase 2, from 2004 to 2013, new cases of HIV/AIDS had more than halved from the peak, as had deaths from HIV/AIDS. Life expectancy rebounded, though in 2013 it remained below 1990 levels. Despite this, in 2013 HIV/AIDS was still the leading cause of death, and among ages 40-44 kills almost half of all males and females. Con-tinued investment in the tremendous public health efforts on prevention and treatment that led to the decrease in HIV/AIDS in phase 2 is critical.

There has been significant progress in addressing other infectious diseases, such as diarrheal disease, lower respiratory infections, and malaria. However, Namibia faces many challenges, including the rising importance of non-communicable diseases and injuries. Car-diovascular diseases, such as ischemic heart disease and stroke, are increasingly contributing to health loss in the Namibian population, particularly among older adults. Injuries are a leading cause of death among adolescents and young adults, with males much more affected than females. This is partly due to the higher levels of risk behavior in males, particularly alcohol and drug use, that are linked to injuries. Measures aimed at mitigating alcohol and drug use, as well as other risks, including unsafe sex, high blood sugar, and high body mass index, will play a key role in reducing deaths in Namibia. Considering the increasing significance of NCDs and injuries in Namibia, investment in preventative measures targeting the important modifiable risk factors presents an attractive investment case for decision-makers.

Despite the advanced statistical methods used in GBD, a lack of avail-able data2 for Namibia tempers the conclusions that can be drawn. GBD 2013 includes an estimate of uncertainty for each result. Uncertainty stems from many factors, but one factor is the most important: the under-lying data. If there are few data, the estimates are based on information from other countries in the region, as well as covariates. Reducing uncer-tainty is of great importance, as it allows greater confidence in results and gives policymakers and other health decision-makers greater confidence in allocating resources and making decisions. One way to easily reduce uncertainty is to strengthen the underlying data, utilize all available data, or collect more data. IHME is committed to collaborate with all health system stakeholders to provide timely and detailed information on burden of disease for decision-making. A collaboration between IHME and stake-holders in Namibia can help to ensure that future updates of the Global Burden of Disease reflect all available evidence, and new evidence as it becomes available.

2A list of citations to data sources used for GBD 2013 Namibia is available at http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2013-data-citations?components=-1&locations=195&causes=294&risks=169&impairments=191

Namibia has made significant progress tackling HIV/AIDS and reducing deaths from communicable diseases like diarrhea and malaria. New challenges, like the rise of NCDs, and existing challenges, like the disproportionate burden of injuries among young men, remain.

41

Annexes

Annex Figure 1Change in life expectancy for both sexes by broad cause group, southern sub-Saharan Africa, 1990 – 2013

Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders



1990

2013




Transport injuries



War & disaster

Lesotho

Botswana

Years

50 55 60 65 70

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Namibia


Note:


Annex Figure 2Change in life expectancy at birth, both sexes, Namibia, 1990–2013

Years50 55 60 65 70

Namibia

Namibia: New causes contributed to change in life expectancy

Decreased life expectancy causes

Change in life expectancy

1990

2013

62 years

61 years

Years lost


Intentional injuries


Transport injuries


-3.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

Increased life expectancy causes

Years gained

Diarrhea/LRI/other

Neonatal disorders


NTDs & malaria

Other group I

Maternal disorders

Chronic respiratory

+1.6

+0.5

+0.2

+0.1

+0.1

+0.1

+0.1

2.7 total years gained

4.4 total years lost

-1.7 change


Note:

Annex Figure 3Percent of total deaths from diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseases broken down by component, by age group, Namibia, 2013

Diarrheal diseases

Intestinal infectious diseases


Upper respiratory infections

Otitis media

Meningitis

Encephalitis

Diphtheria

Whooping cough

Tetanus

Measles

Varicella

Perc

ent o

f to

tal d

eath

s

40%

50%

20%

30%

10%

0%

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

80+ years

Annexes 43

Annex Figure 4Percent of total deaths from diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseases broken down by component, Namibia, 1990–2013

10%

15%

20%

25%

5%

0%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Perc

ent o

f to

tal d

eath

s

Diarrheal diseases




Otitis media

Meningitis

Encephalitis

Diphtheria

Whooping cough

Tetanus

Measles

Varicella

Annex Figure 5Numbers of deaths from diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseas-es broken down by component, Namibia, 1990–2013

Diarrheal diseases




Otitis media

Meningitis

Encephalitis

Diphtheria

Whooping cough

Tetanus

Measles

Varicella

Dea

ths

in th

ous

and

s

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

2

3

1

0


Annex Figure 6Percent of total deaths due to cardiovascular diseases by age group, both sexes and all ages, Na-mibia, 2013

20%

30%

40%

10%

0%

Perc

ent o

f to

tal d

eath

s

Rheumatic heart disease




Cardiomyopathy

Atrial fibrillation

Aortic aneurysm

Peripheral vascular disease

Endocarditis


0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

80+ years

Annex Figure 7Percent of total disability (YLDs) due to components of nutritional deficiencies by age group, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

50%

30%

40%

20%

0%

10%

Perc

ent o

f to

tal Y

LDs

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

80+ years


Iodine deficiency

Vitamin A deficiency


Other nutritional

Annexes 45

Annex Figure 8Percent of total disability (YLDs) due to components of musculoskeletal disorders by age group, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

80+ years

20%

10%

15%

25%

5%

0%

Perc

ent o

f to

tal Y

LDs

Rheumatoid arthritis

Osteoarthritis


Gout

Other musculoskeletal

0–6 d

ays

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

Annex Figure 9Percentage breakdown of total disease burden (DALYs) by age group, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

0–6 d

ays

Perc

ent o

f to

tal D

ALY

s

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

7–27 d

ays

28–364 d

ays

1–4 ye

ars

5–9 ye

ars

10–14 ye

ars

15–19 ye

ars

20–24 ye

ars

25–29 ye

ars

30–34 ye

ars

35–39 ye

ars

40–44 ye

ars

45–49 ye

ars

50–54 ye

ars

55–59 ye

ars

60–64 ye

ars

65–69 ye

ars

70–74 ye

ars

75–79 ye

ars

80+ years

Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster


Note:


Annex Figure 10Number of smokers for males and females, all ages, Namibia, 1980–2013. Shaded areas indicate uncertainty.

Male Female

Num

ber

of s

mo

kers

in th

ous

and

s

1980 1990 2000 2010

50

100

150

Annex Figure 11Prevalence of smokers for males and females, all ages, Namibia, 1980–2013. Shaded areas indicate uncertainty.

Male Female

Prev

alen

ce o

f sm

oki

ng

1980 1990 2000 2010

10%

0%

20%

30%

Annexes 47

Annex Figure 12Percent of total deaths attributable to risk factors in children under 5, both sexes, Namibia, 2013

Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders


Other communicable, maternal,neonatal, and nutritional disorders




Transport injuries



War & disaster

Note:






Malnutrition

WaSH

Air pollution

Unsafe sex

Alcohol & drug use

Tobacco



High blood pressure


Percent of total deaths

15% 20%10%5%0%


Annex Figure 13Percent of total deaths attributable to risk factors in adolescents and adults, both sexes, ages 15 to 49 years, Namibia, 2013

Unsafe sex

Alcohol & drug use



High blood pressure

WaSH

Dietary risks

Tobacco


Air pollution


High total cholesterol

Occupational risks

Low physical activity

Malnutrition

Other environmental

Low bone mineral density

Percent of total deaths

Cancers



Cirrhosis

Digestive diseases




Diarrhea/LRI/other

NTDs & malaria

Maternal disorders

Neonatal disorders






Transport injuries



War & disaster

Note:






30%20%10%0%

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INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH METRICS AND EVALUATIONUNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Documents

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