Name, Surname, Position

Logo(s

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Weather monitoring and forecasting over eastern Attica (Greece) in the frame of FLIRE projectVassiliki Kotroni (1), Konstantinos Lagouvardos (1) , Nektarios Chrysoulakis (3), Christos Makropoulos (2), Maria Mimikou (2), Chrysoula Papathanasiou (2), and Dimitris Poursanidis (3)

(1) NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS – INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, (2) NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS, (3) FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY, INSTITUTE OF APPLIED AND COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS, GREECE

FLIRE objectives:

Develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for integrated weather information management, forest fire management and floods information management.

The aim is to support decision making of Civil Protection Agencies and local stakeholders in the area of east Attica (Greece)

A flowchart summarizing the DSS

The study area is the catchment area of Rafina city

Adopted strategy for setting-up the operational weather forecasting chain that provides the weather forecasts for the FLIRE project needs

8 km24 km 2 km

MM5

MM5 model is run once daily, initialized at 0000 UTC. Grid 1 simulation lasts 72 hours, Grid 2 starts at t+6 with a total simulation time of 66 h and finally Grid 3 starts at t+6, with a total simulation time of 42 h. Therefore Grid 3 provides every day detailed weather forecasts for the same day and the following day, at 1-h interval.

Near Real - time Forest Fire Risk Assessment and

Management Tool

Web Browser( Visualization )

Web Server( service )

Maps description

Request

Weather Information Management Tool

( WIMT )( service )

Ma p

s

Re q

ue

s t

APIs , ( Google , Openlayers , etc )Map coverages ,

Background maps

Flood Risk Management System ( EFWS )

Early Flood Warning System ( EFWS )

( service )

Short - term weather forecasting

( Action B .5)

Flood risk assessment

( Action B .3)

Forest fire risk assessment and

mitigation planning( Action B .4)

Fire Modeling Component( service )

Early Fire Warning System ( EFiWS )

( service )

Flood Scenarios( files )

EFWSEFWS

This presentation is devoted to the data that are provided in the Weather Monitoring Management Tool of the FLIRE system that includes: Short term weather forecasts for the study area Weather station Real time Data Smart alerts for thunderstorms

MM5 model is run once daily, initialized at 0000 UTC. Grid 1 simulation lasts 72 hours, Grid 2 starts at t+6 with a total simulation time of 66 h and finally Grid 3 starts at t+6, with a total simulation time of 42 h. Therefore Grid 3 provides every day detailed weather forecasts for the same day and the following day, at 1-h interval. The forecast verification is conducted for the rainfall events that have occurred from March 2013 up to December 2014 in the Greater Athens Area. For the selection of the events the following criteria have been applied: (a) at least one station to have recorded more than 20 mm of rain in 24 hours, (b) more than 3 surface meteorological stations have recorded rainfall (in order to avoid very local events).For the statistical evaluation, the precipitation observations from 21 rain gauges operated by the National Observatory of Athens (red bullets), and 10 rain gauges operated by the National Technical University of Athens (green bullets) are used for the verification.

Validation of precipitation forecasts

The forecast verification is conducted for the rainfall events that have occurred from March 2013 up to December 2014 in the Greater Athens Area (37 events). For the selection of the events the following criteria have been applied: (a) at least one station to have recorded more than 20 mm of rain in 24 hours, (b) more than 3 surface meteorological stations have recorded rainfall (in order to avoid very local events).

  date max 24hrain#stations with

rain1 31 December 2014 38 62 30 December 2014 24.6 133 17 December 2014 23.4 304 12 December 2014 60.4 375 11 December 2014 60.6 386 08 December 2014 68.6 367 14 November 2014 21 88 08 November 2014 61.8 369 24 October 2014 101.8 30

10 23 October 2014 40.4 811 16 September 2014 58.6 1112 09 September 2014 34.4 713 07 September 2014 30.6 614 19 July 2014 55.6 1215 15 July 2014 62 816 27 April 2014 55.8 1517 07 April 2014 24.4 618 06 April 2014 46 919 03 March 2014 75.2 3320 01 March 2014 22.8 2921 28 February 2014 20.2 422 28 January 2014 62.4 3523 26 January 2014 28 3024 25 January 2014 28.8 1625 24 January 2014 37.6 2026 15 January 2014 53 1427 27 December 2013 56.2 3528 02 December 2013 28.2 2729 24 November 2013 55.8 3230 21 November 2013 36.2 1731 14 November 2013 40 3532 11 November 2013 92 2433 06 November 2013 45.8 3434 01 October 2013 26.2 1735 12 June 2013 50.4 1436 08 June 2013 45.4 437 12 May 2013 20 4

For the statistical evaluation, the precipitation observations from 44 rain gauges are used. The 24-h accumulated precipitation values (from t+24 up to t+48), so the model forecast for DAY2, are verified against the available rain gauges.

Rain Thresholds in mm1 2.5 5 10 20

Areal Bias 0.90 0.83 0.73 0.65 0.51POD 0.89 0.82 0.72 0.63 0.42FAR 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.17CSI 0.88 0.82 0.72 0.61 0.39

Rain Ranges in mm

0.2-2.5 2.5-5 5.-10. 10. - 20. >20.QB 0.28 -0.5 -1.6 -3.6 -14.4MAE 0.66 1.0 3.0 6.0 15.9

This research has been carried out under the Project FLIRE "FLoods and fIre Risk assessment and managEment". The project aims to develop a warning system for floods and fire risk management and is co-financed by European Commission General Directorate for the Environment, LIFE financial instrument with 50%.

Surface stations network that provides real-time weather monitoring of the study area

Smart alerts for thunderstorms in the study area

Every 15-min an automated procedure is executed at NOA, scanning ZEUS network data for lightning occurrence within a radius of 10 km and 20 km around the area of interest (east Attica).The procedure provides a short file with a 0 indication for no lightning and 1 for lightning within 10 km radius and 2 for lightning within 20 km of radius.This file is transferred to DSS every 15 min, for display.

Image of the meteorological stations and the model domain from the Decision Support System graphical interface.

Image of the meteorological forecasts of precipitation over the study domain from the Decision Support System graphical interface.