NAME : STATUS AND ISSUES

NAME Homepage:http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

SWG-5 Agenda and Format6 Sessions:

(1)    NAME Overview* NOAA developments* commitments from the U.S. Government / research institutions

(2)    NAME International Partnerships* commitments from the Mexican Government / research institutions

(3)    NAME 2004 Field Campaign Breakout Session* technically and logistically focused presentations

(4)    NAME Forecast Operations Centers (FOCs)* functions / coordination

(5)    NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies* roadmap* NAME CPT

(6)    SWG Executive Session (Open)* actions / SWG rotation / next meeting 

Raise issues by session for discussion:

NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Planning --------------|

Preparations --------------|

Data Collection - - - ----------------|

Principal Research ----------------------------------|

Data Management -----------------------------------------|

HYPOTHESISThe NAMS provides a physical

basis for determining the degree ofpredictability of warm seasonprecipitation over the region.

Intraseasonal Variability

Boundary Forcing?

Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

OBJECTIVES:Better understanding andsimulation of:

• warm season convective processes in complex terrain (TIER I); • intraseasonal variability of the monsoon (TIER II);• response of warm season circulation and precipitation to slowly varying boundary conditions (SST, soil moisture) (TIER III);• monsoon evolution and variability (TIER I, II, III).

AGENCY LINKAGES

• Agency programs providing support and/or most likely to provide additional support for NAME 2004:

– NOAA PACS/GAPP NAME 2004 Solicitation (Spring 03; observations)

– NOAA PACS/GAPP Warm Season Precipitation Initiative (Annual since 2000)

– NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program (Tier I Soil Moisture Field Campaign)

– NSF GEO/ATM, Hydro (Tier I network and related modeling/diagnostics)

– NCAR/ATD (Tier I network)

– NOAA ETL and NOAA/AL (Tier I network)

– DOE (Mobile Research Facilities)

NAME ENDORSEMENTS

• WCRP / CLIVAR Variability of the American Monsoons (VAMOS) Program– North American Implementation

• U.S. CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee– Warm season process study of the North American Monsoon

under the U.S. CLIVAR Pan American Panel

• GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP)– GAPP Science and Implementation Plan

•• The NAME SWG is seeking NWS endorsement via the S&T The NAME SWG is seeking NWS endorsement via the S&T Committee.Committee.

P a n A m e r ic a n C l im a te S tu d ie s

P A C S / G A P P M e r g e r : N e x t S t e p s f o r I n t e g r a t in g R e s e a r c h & O p e r a t io n s

• B le n d P A C S a n d G A P P in t o a s in g le p r o c e s s r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m w i t h g o a l t o d e v e lo p a n d im p r o v e in t r a s e a s o n a l - to - in t e r a n n u a l c l im a t e in f o r m a t io n

– C o n s o l id a t e c o m m o n th r u s t s• I n i t i a l j o in t p r o g r a m f o r N o r th A m e r ic a W a r m S e a s o n P r e c i p i ta t i o n /N A M E

• L a n d s u r f a c e b o u n d a r y f o r c i n g o f c l im a t e

• R e g io n a l d o w n s c a l i n g

– I m p r o v e p r o g r a m m a t ic m a p p in g• E x p a n s io n o f P A C S e m p h a s i s o n s u m m e r to i n c lu d e w i n t e r a n d t r a n s it i o n s e a s o n s

• E x t e n s io n o f G A P P d o m a in t o i n c lu d e o t h e r r e g io n s w i t h i n P a n A m e r ic a

( p la n n in g in i t i a t e d ; s in g l e b u d g e t a n d m a n a g e m e n t t e a m in F Y 0 4 )

Integrated ISIP Program Structure

1. Model and Forecast System Development

2. Experimental Prediction

3. Diagnostics, Analysis and Attribution

4. Applications and Products Development

5. Research and Data Development

NOAA Intra-Seasonal-to-InterannualPrediction Program

Toward an Integrated, Requirement Based, and Products Driven R&D Program

Ming JiNOAA OGP

NAME Programmatic Issues

• How can we accelerate progress towards achieving NAME objectives in view of recent NOAA developments?– PACS/GAPP merger, ISIP (Jin Huang)– CPT’s (Ming Ji)

• Have we established the appropriate linkages to agencies and programs?

NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE

Science Working Group

Project Office

NAME International Project Support Team

NAME Forecast Operations Centers

NAME Programmatic Issues

• How do we improve coordination between the SWG, the Project Office, the INPST and the Forecast Operations Centers?

– Project Office activities / actions / accomplishments (Gus Emmanuel)

– Plans for structure and functions of Forecast Operations Centers (Bob Maddox, Art Douglas, Miguel Cortez, Jose Meitin)

– Plans for integrating the NAME observing system platforms

(NAME PI’s)

INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

(1) SMN Meteorological Infrastructure 79 synoptic stations 16 radiosonde sites 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003) 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico)

• Historical and real-time data• NAME Forecast Operations Centers (meteorologists,technicians)

(2) Universities and Institutions in Mexico and Central America UNAM IMTA CICESE University of Costa Rica University of Vera Cruz University of Guadalajara others

• Equipment, personnel, transportation, data collection, research

NAME International Partnership Issues

• What can we do to improve promotion of NAME within Mexico and Central America?

• What are the commitments from the Mexican Government / Research Institutions?

– equipment, personnel, student participation, research

• What can NAME do that Mexico will sustain after NAME 2004?

• What should we do to improve Pan American coordination / collaboration?

NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN (JJAS 2004)

Radar/Profiling/Radiosondes

Enhanced Precipitation

Gauge NetworkR.V. Ron Brown

Radiosondes/PIBALS

NAME-2004 Field Campaign Issues• How do we integrate the NAME observing system platforms?

– science plans (key questions, measurement protocols, data dissemination plan)

– observational weaknesses over Tier 1 (e.g. flux towers)

– EOP/IOP field coordination requirements

– unfunded activities worth incorporating

– ongoing coordination with modeling and data assimilation groups

• Ships– UNAM El Puma ; Mexican Navy; CIBNOR; others?

– Deployment at the mouth of the GOC-NSF

– What about a ship with soundings but no radar?

• Aircraft– NAME has 56 P-3 flight hours. What about the additional 54 hours?

– Coordination issues with SMEX04, NASA JSC WB-57

NAME-2004 Field Campaign Issues

• Soundings– Coordination of the network (ISS’s, SMN raobs, NWS raobs, ship

and PIBALS) during EOP / IOP’s

– Will additional NWS raobs on IOP days (4/day; 9 WFO’s; 20 IOP days) be an NWS contribution to NAME?

– IOP’s: SMN (6 soundings) – vs – NWS (4 soundings)

• Raingauges– sampling strategy: nests of raingauges - vs - uniform coverage.

• Status of the NSF Tier 1 request

SOUNDING NETWORK (Tiers I-II)

SMN Radiosonde Soundings up to 4x daily at 7 sites during IOP’sNWS Radiosonde Soundings up to 4x daily at 9 sites during IOP’sPIBALS up to 4-8x daily, in higher density near Tier 1.

Status on NWS Soundings for NAME (Oct. 16th meeting)

• The request (360 soundings @ ~79K) was too late for the FY04 budget cycle.

• Consensus: NAME has strong support from and benefits to the NWS. Interested parties ( NWS HQ, WR, SR and NCEP) agree that additional soundings should be taken.

• Actions:– OST will take the lead (Jiayu Zhou)– Complete WR/SR Feasibility study (Oct. 03) – Seek NWS Endorsement via NAME briefing + funding solution to NWS

S&T Committee (Dec. 03)– Meet NOAA regulations (cooperative agreement – vs - interagency

agreement)

• Funding: Ask for contributions from each office that supports the effort (NCEP, OST, OS, OOS).

• Drop Dead Date: NAME Field Operations meeting in Tucson, AZ (April 2004)

Organizational InvolvementOrganizational Involvement

SMN Rotational Team; NWS Rotational Team; NCEP Centers (HPC, SPC, TPC and CPC); DOD (Possible).

NAME FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTERS

2003 Activities2003 Activities Exchange Visits (NWS-SMN);

Practice Forecasting (daily discussions / day 2 QPF in 9 zones)

2004 Activities2004 Activities Forecaster Orientation Workshop

Exchange Visits (NWS-SMN);

Forecaster Rotation

Daily Briefings / EOP and IOP Forecasts and Support

[Director: B. Maddox (Univ. of Arizona)][Rotational Team Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

NAME FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTERS

Status of 2004 ActivitiesStatus of 2004 Activities

Facilities for NAME 2004 forecaster support and 2004 daily briefings have

been arranged at WFO Tucson and U.AZ;

Exchange Visits have been funded by NWS IA;

Unfunded:

Forecaster Orientation Workshop (April, 2004) - $10K

Time / travel for NWS forecasters - $14K

Currently on list of NWS unfunded priorities.

[Director: B. Maddox (Univ. of Arizona)][Rotational Team Leaders: E. Pytlak (NWS); M. Cortez (SMN)]

NAME Forecast Operations Center Issues

• What are the operational procedures for the EOP / IOP’s?  

– Science Director rotation schedule

– Forecaster selection and staffing; rotation schedule

– Daily briefings / forecasts

– Types of IOP days (unperturbed, MCS’s, TEW’s, surges)

– Time required to engage NWS WFO’s for extra soundings

• How do we increase NAME PI participation in the FOC?

• Should we extend EOP/IOP’s into early September?

– synoptic evaluation of summer 2003

• Status of DOD-NAME opportunity for intersection?

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper”

June 2003• Provides a strategy for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science objectives

• Unveiled at NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Workshop (UMD, June 03)

• Reviewed by the US CLIVAR Pan American Panel.

• Emphasizes activities that bring observationalists, modelers and physical parameterization experts together to focus on key physical processes that are deficient in coupled models.

     

 

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation:

A Strategic Overview

NAME Science Working Group*

June 2003

I. Multi-scale Model Development

II. Multi-tier Synthesis and Data Assimilation

III. Prediction and Global-scale Linkages

ChallengesStrengthen linkages between modeling, data assimilation and observational activities/programs

• relevance - timing is everything

• doesn’t happen naturally - requires programmatic nudging/support

Develope “CPT-like” efforts –

e.g. Phenomenological focus: diurnal cycle

e.g. Key Processes: orographic forcing of convection

NAME ROADMAP

Pre-NAME 2004 Activities:* Diagnostics and Analysis

- Model (e.g. NAMAP; Warm Season Diurnal Cycle in AGCM’s)- Reanalysis (global, regional)

* NAME FOC Practice Forecasting* Workshops

- NASA/CLIVAR Subseasonal Workshop / NAME Modeling Workshop- NAME SWG-5 / NAME Special Session (Puerto Vallarta)

NAME 2004 Activities:* NAME EOP Forecaster Support

- Forecast Discussions / Operational Assessments* Real-time Monitoring, Analysis and Forecast Products

NAME ROADMAPPost-NAME 2004 Activities

* Model and Forecast System Development- NAME CPT activities (simulation of convective precipitation) - Multi-scale modeling / CRM

* Experimental Prediction- NAME 2004 case studies / hindcasts- Sensitivity to SST and soil moisture (operational centers)- Subseasonal prediction (e.g. TISO.MJO)

* Diagnostics and Analysis- Reanalysis (global, regional, NAME data impact)- Model diagnostics (NAMAP 2)

* Applications and Product Development- Assessments (Hazards, North American drought monitor)- Forecasts (North American seasonal and subseasonal)- Applications (Agriculture, Fire WX, Water Resource)

* Research and Dataset Development- PACS-GAPP warm season precipitation initiative

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Issues

• Are the pieces of the NAME Modeling-Observations strategy fitting together? – Are we responsive to recent NOAA developments?

– Have we responded to PanAM Panel?

– Has the NAME CPT focused its plans and developed a timeline?

– What are the specific activities that accelerate progress towards NAME’s guiding goal? (Update roadmap)

• Can we jumpstart planning for NAME 2004 follow on activities?– CLIVAR PanAM Panel has requested that we extend the timeline

– Do we need working groups to develop scientific justification?

Workshop goals• Bring extended NAME research community together to

exchange ideas and results– Review scope of Current / Planned NAME Activities

• Focus Plans for NAME 2004 Field Campaign– Field Observations– Coordination (SWG-FOC’s-Project Office)– Identify key deficiencies

• Discuss future priorities– How best to capitalize on results from NAME 2004? What’s next? How

to strengthen links to other process studies?– Roadmap for post NAME 2004 modeling / analysis / enhanced long-

term monitoring activities (e.g. NAME CPT focus)– NOAA developments: PACS/GAPP merger, ISIP

NAME DELIVERABLES

• Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North American monsoon system.

• More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability.

• Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across

Pan-America.

• Measurably improved climate models that predict North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance.