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7/24/2019 Nairobi Ndovu A104 BRT Service Plan
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TheInstitutefor
Transportationand
DevelopmentPolicy
26February,2015
Nairobi Ndovu/A104 BRT
Service Plan
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ThisreportwaswrittenbyAnnieWeinstock,Dr.WalterHook,andStephanieLotshawoftheInstituteforTransportation
&DevelopmentPolicy(ITDP),withcriticalinputsfromRemiJeanneret(modeling),ChrisKost(modeling),ZhuXianyuan
(datacollection+modeling),ElkinBello(modeling),andChrisVanEyken(datacollection+GIS).Itwasmadepossibleby
DebashishBhattacharjee,RahabMundara,andTomaszSudraofUN Habitat,undertheUNEPGlobalEnvironmental
FacilitySUSTRANEastAfricaproject,supervisedbyGeordieColville.TheInstituteforTransportationandDevelopment
PolicyalsoprovidedmatchingfundsfromitsNewInitiativesProgram,fundedbyClimateWorks.ITDPwouldliketogive
specialthankstoEngineersDenisOdeckandKibetTeriginofKeNHAfortheirconstantsupport,input,andoversight,
withoutwhichthisreportwouldnothavebeenpossible.
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TableofContents
List of Figures .................................................................................................................. 5
List of Tables ................................................................................................................... 7
List of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................... 8
0 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 9
0.1 Scenarios Compared ................................................................................................ 9
0.2 Recommended Service Scenario: Scenario V .................................................................. 11
1 Project Background ..................................................................................................... 16
1.1 The Ndovu/A104 BRT project .................................................................................... 16
1.2 What is a service plan ............................................................................................. 17
1.3 MRTS Harmonisation Study and the Ndovu/A104 BRT Corridor ............................................. 19
2 Objectives of this assignment ......................................................................................... 20
2.1 Personnel and timeframe ......................................................................................... 21
3 Existing Conditions ...................................................................................................... 21
3.1 Surveys .............................................................................................................. 21
3.1.1 Identifying the affected street network and bus routes ........................................................... 22
3.1.2 On-board and at-station boarding and alighting (BA) surveys .................................................... 25
3.1.3 Bus frequency & occupancy surveys .................................................................................. 25
3.1.4 Bus passenger transfer surveys ........................................................................................ 26
4 Existing (baseline) conditions ......................................................................................... 27
4.1 Existing frequencies ............................................................................................... 27
4.2 Existing public transport speeds ................................................................................. 29
4.3 Existing public transport passenger demand .................................................................. 30
5 Service plan for the Ndovu/A104 BRT ................................................................................ 36
5.1 Modeling process ................................................................................................... 36
5.2 Model calibration .................................................................................................. 38
5.3 General Objectives ................................................................................................ 40
5.4 BRT Infrastructure Scenarios ..................................................................................... 40
5.4.1 Infrastructure Scenario 1 ............................................................................................... 41
5.4.2 Infrastructure Scenario 2 ............................................................................................... 41
5.4.3 Infrastructure Scenario 3 ............................................................................................... 42
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5.4.4 Infrastructure Scenario 4 ............................................................................................... 43
5.4.5 A note on BRT infrastructure through the CBD ...................................................................... 44
5.5 BRT Service Scenarios ............................................................................................. 47
5.5.1 Inclusion or exclusion of routes ........................................................................................ 47
5.5.2 BRT service types ........................................................................................................ 50
5.5.3 Scenario I: Trunk-Feeder on KeNHA Infrastructure (Infrastructure Scenario 1) ............................... 57
5.5.4 Scenario II: Direct services on KeNHA Infrastructure (Infrastructure Scenario 1) ............................. 59
5.5.5 Scenario III: Trunk-Feeder on KeNHA Infrastructure + CBD (Infrastructure Scenario 3) ...................... 61
5.5.6 Scenario IV: Direct services on KeNHA Infrastructure + CBD (Infrastructure Scenario 3) .................... 63
5.5.7 Scenario V: Direct services on KeNHA Infrastructure + CBD + Langata (Infrastructure Scenario 4) ........ 64
5.6 Comparison of scenarios .......................................................................................... 66
5.6.1
Basic cost-benefit analysis of each scenario ........................................................................ 70
5.7 BRT station locations and sizing ................................................................................. 73
5.7.1 Routes included in Scenario V ......................................................................................... 78
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ListofFiguresFigure1:BRTservicescenarioV:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD+Langata.............................................. 12
Figure2:BRTstationinJohannesburgwithtwosubstops................................................................................................... 14
Figure3:
Number
of
sub
stops
needed
at
each
station
under
recommended
service
plan
scenario
..................................
14
Figure4:A104Highwayproject............................................................................................................................................ 16
Figure5:A104BRTinfrastructureasdefinedbyKeNHA...................................................................................................... 17
Figure6:FiveBRTlinesproposedbytheMRTSHarmonisationStudy................................................................................. 19
Figure7:Ndovu/A104BRTinfrastructureasfoundinMRTSHarmonisationStudy............................................................. 20
Figure8MapofNairobismatatuservices........................................................................................................................... 23
Figure9:SurveyedroutesoperatinginthewiderNairobiarea........................................................................................... 24
Figure10:SurveyedroutesoperatingintheCentralBusinessDistrict................................................................................ 24
Figure11:FVOsurveylocationsforNdovu/A104BRTserviceplanningdatacollection...................................................... 26
Figure12:TransfersurveylocationsforNdovu/A104BRTserviceplanningdatacollection............................................... 27
Figure13:
Existing
aggregate
matatu
frequencies
for
all
routes
surveyed
during
AM
peak
hour.
......................................
29
Figure14:Existingaveragematatuspeedsforallroutessurveyed.AMpeakhour............................................................ 30
Figure15:Existingstopbystopboardingandalightingvolumesforallroutessurveyed................................................... 31
Figure16:ExistingmatatuloadsonA104northernsegmentfromNaivashaRdtoKikuyuRd............................................ 32
Figure17:ExistingmatatuloadsonA104,fromNaivahsaRdtoWestlandsRoundabout................................................... 33
Figure18:ExistingmatatuloadonA104corridorandCBD.................................................................................................. 34
Figure19:ExistingmatatuloadsonA104corridor,southofCBDtoImaraDiamaRailway................................................ 35
Figure20:ExistingmatatuloadsonA104corridor,approachingairport,fromLikoniRdtoJKIA....................................... 36
Figure21Overviewofsurvey,modelingandBRTserviceplanprocess............................................................................... 37
Figure22:CalibrationofmodelforexistingmataturoutesonA104................................................................................... 39
Figure23:
Calibration
of
model
for
existing
matatu
routes
on
A104
&
Lanata
....................................................................
40
Figure24:InfrastructureScenario1 KeNHA'scurrentdesign............................................................................................ 41
Figure25:InfrastructureScenario2 MRTSHarmonizationStudy...................................................................................... 42
Figure26:InfrastructureScenario3 KeNHA+CBDloop.................................................................................................... 43
Figure27:InfrastructureScenario4 KeNHA+CBDloop+Langata.................................................................................... 44
Figure28:TripgenerationdensityinNairobiCBD................................................................................................................ 45
Figure29:Bogota'sTransMilenioBRTgoesrightthroughtheCBD..................................................................................... 46
Figure30:VolumeofwalkingtripsalongCBDstreetsifBRTinfrastructureisnotincludedintheCBD.............................. 46
Figure31:MexicoCity'sBRTsystemwasdesignedwith"trunkonly"services................................................................... 50
Figure32:Jakarta'sBRTwasalsodesignedwith"trunkonly"services............................................................................... 51
Figure33:HarmoniStationtransferfacilityinJakarta......................................................................................................... 52
Figure34:Jakartaaddedsomeintercorridorservices........................................................................................................ 53
Figure35:Guangzhou'sfullydirectservicesBRTsystem..................................................................................................... 55
Figure36:Johannesburgimplementedahybridsystemofdirectservicesandtrunkfeederservices............................... 56
Figure37:BRTServiceScenarioI:TrunkFeederonKeNHAInfrastructure......................................................................... 57
Figure38:UnderScenarioI,twomajortransferfacilities.................................................................................................... 58
Figure39:BRTServiceScenarioII:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure....................................................................... 60
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Figure40:BRTServiceScenarioIII:TrunkfeederonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD.............................................................. 61
Figure41:BRTServiceScenarioIV:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD........................................................... 63
Figure42:BRTservicescenarioV:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD+Langata............................................ 65
Figure43:
Comparison
of
daily
BRT
passengers
across
the
five
scenarios
...........................................................................
67
Figure44:ComparisonofpassengervolumestransferringoffofsurveyedmataturoutesandontotheBRT.................... 68
Figure45:Averagetime(inminutes)savedbyallpublictransportpassengersundereachscenario................................ 69
Figure46:Averagetime(minutes)savedbyBRTpassengers.............................................................................................. 69
Figure47:ProposedstationstopsalongA104,CBD,andLangataRoad.............................................................................. 74
Figure48:Highstationsaturationhasaninverseeffectonspeed...................................................................................... 74
Figure49:Multipledockingbaysandsubstops................................................................................................................... 75
Figure50:WithBRTinfrastructureandstationsintheCBD,demandiscanbedistributedthroughout9CBDstations....76
Figure51:WithoutBRTinfrastructureandstationsintheCBD,demandisconcentratedatonlyafewstationsonUhur77
Figure52:Numberofsubstopsrequiredinatrunkonlysystemwithmultiplecorridors.................................................. 77
Figure53:
Maximum
number
of
sub
stops
for
BRT
systems
around
the
world.
..................................................................
78
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ListofTablesTable1:Comparisonofthe5serviceplanscenarios.............................................................................................................. 9
Table2:SummaryofEstimatedCapitalCostsbyServicePlanScenario.............................................................................. 10
Table3:
Summary
of
rate
of
return
by
service
plan
scenario
...............................................................................................
11
Table4:ResultsofScenarioV............................................................................................................................................... 13
Table5:Frequencycountsofsurveyedroutes.Source:ITDPSurvey................................................................................... 28
Table6:RoutesconsideredforinclusioninBRTservicescenarios...................................................................................... 49
Table7:ResultsofScenarioI................................................................................................................................................ 59
Table8:ResultsofScenarioII............................................................................................................................................... 60
Table9:ResultsofScenarioIII.............................................................................................................................................. 62
Table10:ResultsofScenarioIV............................................................................................................................................ 64
Table11:ResultsofScenarioV............................................................................................................................................. 65
Table12:Cost,Benefit,andRateofReturncomparisonofFiveServicePlanScenarios..................................................... 71
Table13:
Scenario
V
BRT
Routes
..........................................................................................................................................
79
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ListofAbbreviations
Artic:Articulatedbuses(18meter)
BA:Boarding
and
Alighting
BRT:BusRapidTransit
CBD:CentralBusinessDistrict
FVO:FrequencyandVisualOccupancy
ITDP:InstituteforTransportation&DevelopmentPolicy
JKIA:JomoKenyattaInternationalAirport
KeNHA:KenyaNationalHighwaysAuthority
LRT:LightRailTransit
MRTS:MassRapidTransitSystem
MIT:MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
NMR:NairobiMetropolitanRegion
NUTRIP:NationalUrbanTransportImprovementProject
OD:OriginDestination
Std:Standardbuses(12meter)
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0
ExecutiveSummary
TheInstituteforTransportationandDevelopmentPolicy(ITDP)isanonprofitorganizationwithextensive
technicalexpertiseonBusRapidTransit(BRT)planning.Oneofourcoremissionsistohelpcitiestoimprove
thequality
of
their
BRT
projects.
As
such,
we
have
worked
in
cities
around
the
world
to
help
design
and
implementsomeofthebestranking,goldstandardBRTsystems.
TheNdovu/A104BRTprojectinNairobiiscurrentlyonatrajectorytobecomeaworldclassBRTproject.The
highestqualityBRTsystemsaredesignedaroundagoodserviceplan.Aserviceplandetermineswherethe
BRTrouteswillgo,howbigstationswillneedtobe,andhowmanypassengersaBRTsystemwillattract.The
BRTinfrastructureisthendesignedspecificallyforthisserviceplan.
AttherequestoftheKenyaNationalHighwaysAuthority(KeNHA),ITDPhaspreparedapreliminaryBRT
serviceplanfortheNdovu/A104BRTprojectaccordingtointernationalbestpracticeinBRTserviceplanning.
Thisreportdetailstheprocess,methodology,andmodelingresultsfromseveraldetailedalternativeservice
scenarios.Therecommendedservicescenariointhisreportminimizeslandacquisition,reducesthecapital
costsneededfortransferstations,minimizestraveltimeforpassengers,andattractsthemostpassengers.The
resultsofeachalternativeoptionareshown.Thebestscenariofortheprojectwouldresultinatopquality
BRTthatcanbereplicatedinNairobi,inKenya,inEastAfrica,andthroughouttheworld.
0.1 ScenariosCompared
Table 1: Comparison of the 5 service plan scenarios
Sixscenariosweremodeledandcompared.Thesesixscenariosareasfollows:
Baseline:Existingconditions
ScenarioI:TrunkfeederserviceswithtrunkservicesonA104only
ScenarioII:DirectserviceswithBRTinfrastructureonA104only
Scenario Baseline I II III IV V
Description Existing I:Trunk&
Feeder,
no
CBD
II:Direct
Services,
no
CBD
III:Trunk&
Feeder,
CBD
IV:Direct
Services,
CBD
V:Direct
Services,CBD+
Langata
TripsonMatatus 966,213 732,213 606,213 669,213 597,213 516,213
Dailytrips 0 234,000 360,000 297,000 369,000 450,000
Timeperpassenger 78.36 77.21 76.40 75.4 74.10 72.03
Timesavingsallpassengers 0 1.15 1.96 2.96 4.26 6.33
TimesavingsperBRTpassenger 0 5.1 5.7 10.5 12.1 14.7
BRTVehicles 0 284 352 343 335 385
Dailypassengers perbus 0 824 1023 866 1101 1169
Transferstationsneeded 0 6 0 6 0 0
Comparison
of
Five
Service
Plan
Scenarios
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ScenarioIII:TrunkfeederserviceswithtrunkservicesonA104andthroughtheCBD(BRT
infrastructurethroughCBDtoo)
ScenarioIV:DirectserviceswithBRTinfrastructureonA104andthroughtheCBD
ScenarioV:
Direct
services
with
BRT
infrastructure
on
A104,
through
the
CBD
+1.5km
of
Langata
Rd.
Eachscenariowascomparedonthefollowingterms:
DailyridershipontheBRT;
Averagetimesavingsalltransitpassengers(BRT+matatu);
Averagetimesavings,BRTpassengers;
#BRTvehiclesneeded;
Dailypassengersoneachbus;and
#Transferstationsneeded.
The
best
BRT
service
plan
will
capture
as
much
of
the
existing
matatu
demand
currently
using
the
corridor
as
possible.Thishastwobenefits:First,itmeansmoreofthematatuscanberemovedfromtheremainingtraffic
lanes,decongestingtheroad.Second,itmeansmorepassengerscanbenefitfromthenewBRTsystem.
ScenarioVcapturesbyfarthemostpassengers,andhencewoulddecongesttheroadthemost.
ThebestBRTserviceplanwillsavethemosttimeforallthetransitpassengersinthecorridor,boththoseon
theBRTsystemandthosethatcannotusetheBRTsystem.Itisalsoworthknowinghowmuchtimejustthe
BRTpassengerssave.Inthisrespect,ScenarioValsoperformsthebest.Alltransitpassengerssave6.33
minutesandtheBRTpassengerssave14.7minutespertripunderScenarioV.ScenarioVperformsthebest
becausetheinfrastructureisconcentratedonthemostcongestedpartsofexistingtransittrips,andbecause
thereare
minimal
forced
transfers
imposed
on
passengers.
ThebestBRTserviceplancarriesthemostpassengersperbusbutdoesnotnecessaryrequirethesmallest
fleet.ThebestBRTserviceplanrequiresabiggerfleetbecauseitiscarryingalotmorepassengersthan
alternativescenarios,buteachoneofthosebusesiscarryingmoredailypassengersthanintheother
scenarios,sothesystemoverallwillbemoreprofitable.
ThebestBRTserviceplanrequireslowercapitalcostsandlandacquisition.
Table 2: Summary of Estimated Capital Costs by Service Plan Scenario
Thecapitalcostsforthetrunkandfeederscenarios(I&III)aremuchhigherlargelybecauseoftheneedto
acquirelandandconstructsixtransferstations.Thisaddsanestimated$106.8milliontothecostofalltrunk
Scenario Baseline I
II III IV V
Description Existing Trunk&Feeder,no
CBD
DirectServices,no
CBD
Trunk&Feeder,
CBD DirectServices,CBD
DirectServices,CBD
+Langata
TotalEstimatedCapitalCost 0 262,950,000$ 208,200,000$ 296,150,000$ 210,300,000$ 239,650,000$
Summary
of
Estimated
Capital
Costs
by
Service
Plan
Scenario
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andfeederscenarios(thoughsomeofthisisoffsetbysmallerfleetsizesduetoamuchlowerridership).Inthe
scenarioswithinfrastructureintheCBD,thatinfrastructureaddsonly$2.7millioninbuswaycostsandabout
$6.5millioninstationcosts,soabout$9.2milliontotal.ExtensivelandacquisitionintheCBDisunlikelytobe
necessaryunder
the
direct
services
scenarios,
as
the
right
of
way
is
already
quite
wide.
For
this
initial
investment,about$70millionmoreisachievedinuserbenefitsinthetrunkfeederscenario,andmorethan
$110millionayearinadditionalbenefitsinthedirectservicescenario.Thecapitalcostinthedirectservice
scenarioswithCBD(ScenariosIV&V)forbusesdropsbecauseitrunsservicesinhighlycongesteddowntown
streets,andincreasingthesespeedssignificantlyreducestheamountoffleetneeded.
Table 3: Summary of rate of return by service plan scenario
Intermsofrateofreturn,theCBDsectionhasthehighestrateofreturnofanycapitalinvestmentinthe
corridor.Finally,therateofreturnisfarbetterforthedirectservicescenarios,andforallofthescenarios
includingtheCBDinfrastructure,andsomewhatbetterstillifLangataisincluded.This,onceagain,pointsto
ScenarioVasbeingthebestinvestment.
0.2
RecommendedService
Scenario:
Scenario
V
ThebestperformingscenariowasScenarioV:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD+Langata.In
thisscenario,multipleservices,whichmimicthemostpopularexistingmataturoutes,operateinmixedtraffic
forapartoftheirroute,thenenterfullBRTinfrastructurealongtheA104.ThisscenarioalsorequiresfullBRT
infrastructureonthefirst1.5kmofLangataRdandinthecitycenter.Thisserviceoptioncapturesmostofthe
existingpassengersusingthecorridortodayandoffersthemaconvenientoneseatride.Ofthedozensof
existingmataturoutes,wesimplifiedthemandreducedthemto16criticalrouteswhichincludesomelocal
andexpressversionsofthesameroutes.Theresultingserviceplanisdepictedbelow,withdetailsincludedin
Chapter5.
Scenario Baseline I II III IV V
Description Existing Trunk&Feeder,no
CBD
DirectServices,no
CBD
Trunk&Feeder,
CBD DirectServices,CBD
DirectServices,CBD
+Langata
Estimatedannual
benefit
(USD) 5,592,894$
9,123,762$
13,422,946$
21,897,029$
25,286,662$
PV12Years@5% 49,571,230$ 80,866,199$ 118,970,952$ 194,078,877$ 224,122,047$
TotalEstimatedCapitalCost 0 262,950,000$ 208,200,000$ 296,150,000$ 210,300,000$ 239,650,000$
RateofReturn 0.188519605 0.388406334 0.401725316 0.922866748 0.935205703
Summary
of
Rate
of
Return
by
Service
Plan
Scenario
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Figure 1: BRT service scenario V: Direct services on KeNHA Infrastructure + CBD + Langata
ThetotalnumberofAMpeakhourpassengerswhowillusetheBRTinthisscenariois49,887,whichwill
attractapproximately450,000dailypassengers,makingitthehighestperformingscenario.Thiswillrequirea
totalfleet
of
385
buses:
266
articulated
18
meter
buses
and
119
standard
12
meter
buses.
To
ensure
optimal
operationalflexibility,the18meterbusesshouldbespecifiedtohavefourplatformleveldoorsontheright
sideofthebus,andtwocurbleveldoorsontheleftside.The12meterbusesshouldhavetwoplatformlevel
doorsontherightsideandtwocurbleveldoorsontheleft.Ifalowfloordesignisoptedfor,bothsetsof
doorscanbeatthesamelevel.
Currentlytheaveragetripconsumes78.36minuteequivalents,andtherecommendedscenarioreducesthis
to72.03minutes,areductionof6.33minutesforalltransitpassengersusingthecorridorandareductionof
14.7minutesperpeakhourBRTpassengeronaverage.Whenthisfigureiscombinedwiththeestimatedcost
ofbuildingthesystem,apreliminaryeconomicrateofreturncanbecalculated,whichwillbeneededtojustify
theinvestment
to
the
World
Bank.
Wearealsoconfidentthatthisserviceplanwillattractsufficientcustomerswillingtopayareasonablefare
thataprivateinvestorwillbeabletorecovertheirneededinvestmentinbusesfromthefareboxaswellas
theirongoingoperatingcostsandstillreturnaprofit.
ThisresultdependscriticallyonthecompletionoffullBRTinfrastructureonUniversityWay,HaileSelassie
Ave,andMoiintheNairobiCBD.Additionally,asfourofthehighervolumeroutescomefromLangataRd,this
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resultalsodependsonfullBRTinfrastructureforthefirst1.5kmofLangataRd,designedaspartofPhaseI.
Further,thefullydedicatedBRTonlyturnsthatwererecommendedintheNairobiBRTPhaseIInfrastructure
&Intersectionsreport(RiversideDr,UniversityWay,HaileSelassieAve,LangataRd,PopoRd,EnterpriseRd,
andAirport
N
Rd)
remain
critical
to
accommodating
these
services
and
ensuring
that
the
BRT
speeds
do
not
dropsharplyduetolackofintersectioncapacity.IftheseelementsofBRTinfrastructureareexcludedfrom
PhaseI,amajorityofthebenefitsoftheprojectarelost.
Thedetailedresultsofthemodeling(shownfortheAMpeakhour)arebelow.NotethatArticindicatesan
18meterarticulatedbus,andStdindicatesa12meterbus.Bothmustbeconfiguredforuseon andoff
corridor.
Table 4: Results of Scenario V
Ourmodelingalsoproducedstationbystationpassengerboardingandalightingvolumes,fromwhichweare
abletoprovidestationsizingrecommendationsintermsofnumberofsubstops.Asubstopisastation
modulewithenoughspacefortwobusestodock.Substopsshouldbeseparatedbyenoughspaceforabusto
easilypullinandpulloutifthereisanotherbusinfrontofit.
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max Hdwy
Route type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
B105X Artic 44.9 162.34 7 599 101 573 6 276 3 846 1.20 24.0 2.5 66B11 Std 15.5 67.08 1 996 6 732 576 1 024 0.57 11.4 5.3 13
B110A Std 62.4 168.21 2 338 37 183 1 427 973 0.54 10.8 5.5 31
B110B Std 41.7 108.12 1 575 18 440 713 906 0.50 10.1 6.0 19
B12 Std 16.5 80.61 1 136 4 255 241 592 0.33 6.6 9.1 9
B125 Artic 28.5 154.39 3 284 22 645 2 395 1 789 0.56 11.2 5.4 29
B14 Std 10.5 35.70 1 152 3 501 210 909 0.51 10.1 5.9 7
B15 Artic 25.1 137.44 3 615 17 833 1 675 1 211 0.38 7.6 7.9 18
B23 Artic 22.0 62.36 5 672 37 227 1 859 2 980 0.93 18.6 3.2 20
B30 Artic 29.6 89.16 6 142 39 934 1 960 2 707 0.85 16.9 3.5 26
B33 Artic 24.0 56.42 5 336 44 092 1 801 2 888 0.90 18.1 3.3 17
B33F Artic 35.4 139.64 3 148 29 658 1 505 1 343 0.42 8.4 7.1 20
B33N Artic 15.9 56.90 2 378 13 086 866 2 063 0.64 12.9 4.7 13
B33U Std 50.3 232.00 3 620 20 678 1 569 929 0.52 10.3 5.8 40B34 Artic 38.4 108.79 3 480 38 189 1 579 1 643 0.51 10.3 5.8 19
B48 Artic 28.1 140.04 4 071 35 198 2 768 2 540 0.79 15.9 3.8 38
TOTAL 489 1799 56 542 470 225 27 420 385
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Figure 2: BRT station in Johannesburg with two substops
Themapbelowshowshowmanysubstopsareneededateachstationinordertoaccommodatethe
passengerdemandwithoutsaturating.TheneedforthegreatestnumberofsubstopsintheCBDunderscores
thedemandandneedforBRTinfrastructureintheCBDfromthestartofoperations.
Figure 3: Number of sub-stops needed at each station under recommended service plan scenario
OneofthemainreasonsITDPrecommendedafullBRTringthroughtheNairobiCBDwastoincreasethe
numberofstationsabletohandleCBDboundpassengers.Byhaving9fullBRTstationsinafullringaroundthe
NairobiCBD,theCBDbounddemandontheA104canbedistributedthroughouttheCBD.Thisnotonlyavoids
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anyonestationbecomingovercrowdedandsaturated,italsominimizeswalkingtimes.Thealternative
proposal,tohaveonly4stationsalongtheA104wouldresultinallofthedemandconcentratedinonly4
stations,andnotonlywouldthesestationssaturate,theywouldalsobefarfromtriporiginsanddestinations,
meaningmuch
less
convenience
for
passengers.
Whenthedemandisdistributedto9CBDstations,theywouldrequire3substopseachtoavoidsaturation.
Even3substopsisalotforaCBD.Giventheseresults,ITDPsuggeststhatfullBRTinfrastructurealsobebuilt
alongKenyattathroughtheCBD,includingatleast2stationsalongtheKenyattalink,tofurtherdisbursethis
demandtomorealternativestations,allowingustomaketheremainingCBDstationssmaller.
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1
ProjectBackground
TheAfricaofficeoftheInstituteforTransportation&DevelopmentPolicyisresponsibleforpreparingthe
Nairobi
Ndovu/A104
BRT
service
plan.
1.1 TheNdovu/A104BRTproject
TheA104HighwayprojectispartoftheNationalUrbanTransportImprovementProject(NUTRIP)being
undertakenbytheKenyaNationalHighwaysAuthority(KeNHA)withthesupportoftheWorldBank.TheA104
HighwayisoneofthemostimportantroadsinNairobi,connectingtheairporttodowntownandserving
criticallongdistancefreightandpassengerlinks(asbelow).
Figure 4: A104 Highway project
Responsibilityfordesigningthisroadissplitbetweenthreecontractors:Lot1fromJKIAtoLikoniRoadisunder
thepurviewofGibbAfrica,Lot2fromLikoniRoadtoJamesGichuruRoadisunderthepurviewofCOWI,and
Lot3,fromJamesGichuruRoadtoUthiruisunderthepurviewofEser(Turkey).
TheFeasibilityStudyforMassRapidTransitSystemfortheNairobiMetropolitanRegion(CES/APEC,2011)that
was commissioned by the Ministry of Transport recommended a mixed LRT and BRT system for furthe
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detailing.TheNairobiRailwayStation JKIAAthiRiverandtheNairobiRailwayStationKabeteKikuyu
wereamongthe9corridorsidentifiedtobeappropriateforaMassRapidTransportationSystem.
In2013,
KeNHA
thus
made
the
decision
to
retrofit
the
A104
highway
designs
to
include
world
class
Bus
Rapid
Transit(BRT).TheplansareforhighqualitypossiblygoldstandardBRTinfrastructurealongtheA104.
KeNHAscurrentplanistobuildBRTinfrastructurefromtheCityCabanasinterchangetoJamesGichuruRoad,
maintainingampleroadreserveforanextensionoftheBRTtothenorthinthefuture.
Figure 5: A104 BRT infrastructure as defined by KeNHA (also, Infrastructure Scenario 1, as below)
However,manyofthedecisionsonBRTdesignweremadepriortodevelopingaserviceplanfortheproject.
WhileitisagoodideatohavesomesenseofwhatthedesignwillbeandwhereBRTinfrastructureshouldbe
built,onlyaserviceplancantellyouwhereBRTinfrastructureismostneededandhowintersectionsand
stationsshould
be
designed
to
accommodate
the
BRT
services.
1.2 Whatisaserviceplan
ThestartingpointforthedesignofaBRTsystemshouldnotbetheinfrastructureorthevehicles.Instead,the
systemshouldbedesignedtoachievetheoperationalcharacteristicsthataredesiredbythecustomer.From
the customersperspective, someof themost important factorsaffecting their choiceof travelmodesare
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whethertheserviceswilltakethemwheretheywanttogoandhowlongitwilltake.Thestartingpointforthe
designofthebestBRTsystemshasthereforebeenthecreationofaserviceplan.
Aservice
plan
tells
you
how
buses
should
be
routed
onto
and
off
of
the
BRT
corridor
to
bring
passengers
to
theirdestinationswithas fewtransfersaspossible. Itspecifiesbusroutes,schedules, locationsandsizesof
BRTstations,numberofbusesneeded,andtechnicalspecificationsforthebuses. Italsotellsyouhowwhat
theridershipwilllikelybeoneachroute,wherepassengerswillboardandalight,andhowtheexistingbusand
mataturouteswillbeimpactedbytheBRT.
Becauseofthis,aserviceplanwillaffectmanyaspectsoftheBRTdesignandplanningprocess:
1. Placement of Dedicated Bus Lanes: A service plan will guide the placement of dedicated lanes
Becauseaserviceplanwilltellyouwherebusesshouldberouted,howmanyshouldbeplacedon
eachroute,
and
how
current
speeds
differ
from
what
can
be
achieved
with
BRT,
it
will
indicate
where
dedicatedlaneswouldbemosteffective.
2.
IntersectionDesign:Aserviceplanwillalsodrivethedesignofintersections.Forexample,ifhalfof
thebusesareexitingUhuruHighwayatHaileSelassie,thatintersectionwillneedtobedesignedto
handletheseturningvolumesfromthebusway.
3.
StationDesign:AserviceplanwilldriveBRTstationdesignbecausetheservicesprovidedwillaffect
thenumberofpassengersboardingandalightingateachstationandthisinturnwillaffectthesizeof
thestations,andparticularly,thenumberofsubstopsrequiredtoavoidstationsaturation.Ifthere
arecertainsegmentsofthetrunkBRTwhichhavemultiplebusroutesoperatingonthem(whichthe
serviceplan
will
show),
then
certain
stations
will
need
to
be
designed
to
handle
multiple
buses
dockingatthesametime.
4. FeederStations:A serviceplanwill tellyouwhether itwillbenecessary tobring feederbuses to
access the trunk corridor. If so, theBRTdesignwillneed to include feeder stations so that these
busesmaydropoffpassengersandturnaround.Aserviceplanwillalsotellyouwhether itmakes
moresensetobringfeederbusesdirectlyontothetrunkcorridor(calledcomplementaryservices
andifso,afeederstationwillnotneedtobedesigned.
5. ExistingBus/MatatuRoutes:Aserviceplanwilltellyou,foreachbusormataturoute,whetheritwil
needtostopoperatingorbereroutedsinceitisnotintheinterestofaBRTsystemtoallowmatatus
to
continue
operating
in
competition
with
the
BRT.
Therefore,
a
service
plan
must
be
done
prior
toimplementinganystrategyforhandlingtheimpactedmatatuandbusowners.
6. FinancialModeling:Aserviceplanwilltellyouhowmanypassengerswillusethesystemandhow
manybuseswillbeneeded. It is, therefore, a key input into aBRT systems financialmodel.The
number of passengerswill help determinewhat fare/tariff can be supported and the number of
buseswillhelpdeterminethecostofthesystemandtheamountofequitythatwilllikelyneedtobe
raisedbyshareholders.
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It is therefore important that the service plan happen prior to many other critical decisions in the BRT
planning,design,and financialmodelingprocess.However,oncedesignand financialmodelingbegins, it is
generallynecessarytogobackandupdatethefinancialmodeltoreflectcertaindesignandfinancialdecisions
Therefore,though
the
service
plan
must
be
the
first
step,
service
planning
does
not
end
once
design
begins
Rather,itmusthappeninaniterativeway,beingfrequentlyupdatedtoreflectchangesintheinfrastructure
designandfinancialmodel.
1.3 MRTSHarmonisationStudyandtheNdovu/A104BRTCorridor
In2014,theMinistryofTransportandInfrastructure,togetherwiththeirconsultants,Gauff,completedthe
MRTSHarmonisationStudy.Theaimofthestudywastobringtogetherallpreviousstudiesandplansandto
developanintegratedpublictransportationnetworkforNairobiandtheNairobiMetropolitanRegion(NMR).
TheHarmonisationStudyconsistsoftwomajorparts.1TheMRTSHarmonisationStudyrecommendedfive
MRTS
lines
with
a
focus
on
BRT.
Figure 6: Five BRT lines proposed by the MRTS Harmonisation Study. Source: Rail & Road Based Mass Rapid Transit System onJogoo Road Corridor, Results of the Harmonisation Study Stakeholder Presentation. Gauff Consultants. May 16, 2014
1Gauff Consultants, Mass Rapid Transit System Harmonisation Study Nairobi Metropolitan Region, 2014.
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Further,itconcurredwiththechoiceofBRTontheA104tobecomeLine1.However,itrecommendeda
differentextentofBRTinfrastructurethaniscurrentlybeingdesignedbyKeNHA.TheHarmonisationStudys
Line1BRTinfrastructurehasbeendefinedasfollows:
Figure 7: Ndovu/A104 BRT infrastructure as found in MRTS Harmonisation Study (also, Infrastructure Scenario 2, as below)
TheHarmonisationStudyisrelevanttothisserviceplanningeffortinthatitattemptstodefineabasicservice
planthatshouldbeadoptedforallBRTcorridors.However,itdefinedthisserviceplanbasedonverymacro
leveldataanddidnotinvolveadetaileddatacollectionormodelingprocess.Therefore,ITDPhastestedthe
HarmonisationStudysserviceplanfortheNdovu/A104corridorasoneofthescenariosbutdidnotlimitits
scenariotestingtoonlythisscenariosincesuchascenario,inourexperience,limitsthebenefitsoftheBRT
systemandthus,negativelyimpactstheridership.TheserviceplandefinedbytheHarmonisationStudyis
describedindetailandtestedinSection5.5.3.
2
Objectivesofthisassignment
ITDPisanonprofitwhosecorecompetencyisinprovidingtechnicalsupportforBRTprojectsandhashelped
todesignserviceplansformanyofthebestBRTsystemsaroundtheworld.Assuch,ITDPisworkingwith
KeNHAtocreatetheserviceplanfortheNdovu/A104BRTcorridor.Theobjectiveofthisworkistoprovide
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operationaldesignforthefirstcorridorofahighquality,highcapacitybusrapidtransit(BRT)systemin
Nairobi,Kenya.
2.1
Personneland
timeframe
ITDPsserviceplanningworkinNairobiwascarriedoutfromOctober2013topresentandincludedthe
followingexperts:
AnnieWeinstock
WalterHook
StephanieLotshaw
ChristopherVanEyken
ElkinBello
ChristopherKost
ZhuXianyuan
RemiJeanneret
JacobMason
3
ExistingConditions
Awelldesignedserviceplanisbasedonacarefulevaluationandunderstandingoftheexistingbusandmatatu
servicesthatarecurrentlyservingpublictransportpassengersintheareaimpactedbythenewBRT.Itisthese
passengersmostlikelytotransferontotheBRTandthesepassengerswhowillmakeupthemajorityoffuture
BRTusers.
InordertomodelexistingconditionsforpublictransportuseontheA104,ITDPcollectedrealdataalongthe
corridorthroughaseriesofsurveys,asdescribedbelow.Thisbecamethebasisformodeledsimulationof
baselineconditions,andlaterformodeleddemandestimatesoffutureuseoftheBRT.
3.1 Surveys
InOctober2013andFebruary2014,ITDPcompletedallofthenecessarysurveysanddatacollection:
Boarding&alightingsurveysfor48routes,withatleast5samplesforeachrouteineachtimeperiod
(AMpeak);
Matatufrequency
&
occupancy
surveys
at
multiple
locations;
Matatustoptransfersurveys;
Atstationboardingandalightingsurveys;and
Speedanddelaysurveys
TheNairobiagenciesprovidedexcellentassistanceintheformof:
Awarenessraisingamongstthegeneralpublicviaradio,televisionadsandnotices;and
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SupportfromthePoliceandlocalauthorities.
3.1.1 Identifyingtheaffectedstreetnetworkandbusroutes
Inorder
to
carry
out
the
data
collection
survey,
ITDP
first
identified
the
affected
street
network.
This
refers
tothestreetswithintheNairobistreetnetworkwhichcarrymatatuand/orandbusroutesthatinteractwith
theA104corridor.Thisincludes:
StreetswhichintersectA104,
StreetswhichrunparallelandneartoA104,A104itself,and
StreetsintheCBD.
Wealsoincludedadditionalsurveylocationsbeyondthisareatobetteridentifythecityspassengerdemand
behavior.
Priorto
conducting
the
survey,
it
was
essential
to
identify
the
current
itinerary
for
each
route
and
the
registeredstops(designatedornondesignated).AsinmanyAfricancities,Nairobismataturoutesaresubject
tofrequentmodification,underminingreliabilityforpassengers.Whilemostrouteshaveadefiniteoriginand
finaldestination,theitineraryeachmatatutakescanvarydailyorevenhourlyduetocongestion,
construction,andthepresenceofthetrafficpolice.Evenamatatu'soriginsanddestinationscanchangefor
example,ifamatatustageiscrowdedanddriversrelocatetodifferentparks.Thatsaid,abasicsenseofthe
routesiscriticaltounderstandingexistingpublictransportpatternsonthecorridor.
TheUniversityofNairobi/ColumbiaUniversity/MITteamdidacomprehensiveanalysisofNairobismatatu
routescompiling
the
existing
stopping
locations
both
designated
and
non
designated
for
atotal
of
118
routes.
Weusedthismapasastartingpointandidentifiedtheexistingroutesandregisteredstopsintheaffected
networksothatwecouldselectroutesandpointsforperformingtheonboardandatstationboardingand
alightingsurvey.
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Figure 8 Map of Nairobis matatu services. Source: Digital Matatus
Usingthismapasastartingpoint,weidentifiedthemataturouteswhichinterfacedenoughwiththecorridor
thattheyshouldbeinitiallyconsideredfortheBRTserviceplan.Itwasfortheseroutesthatweperformeda
detailedsurvey.Thisselectionconsideredthreemaincategories:
1) Routefrequency(routeswithgreaterthan3buses/hour),
2) Routeoverlap(routeswithatleast20%overlapontheA104corridor),and
3) Areaofinfluenceanalysis(routesnearthecorridorthatcouldeventuallybecapturedbyaBRT).
Atotalof48routeswereselectedforthesurveys.Somerouteswereidentifiedtooperatealongparallel
corridorsand
thus
marked
as
important
under
the
area
of
influence
aspect
(item
#3).
ThemapsbelowshowalloftheroutessurveyedaspartofITDPsA104survey.
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Figure 9: Surveyed routes operating in the wider Nairobi area.
Figure 10: Surveyed routes operating in the Central Business District.
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3.1.2 Onboardandatstationboardingandalighting(BA)surveys
Theboardingandalighting(BA)surveyisacarefulmappingofprecisematatustoppinglocations,aswellasa
countofhowmanypassengersgetonandoffamatatuorbusateachstopalongtheroute.Two
methodologiesarecommonlyusedtocarryoutBAsurveys:
1. OnboardBAsurveyswhichrequiressurveyorstoridearoute(infullorpartially)andcountnumbersof
passengersboardingandalightingateachstop.
2. AtstationBAsurveywhichrequiressurveyorstorecordpassengermovementsperrouteatagiven
physicallocationorstop.
AtstationBAsurveysrequirelessstaffbutareconsiderablymoredifficulttoprocessandadjust,whileon
boardBAsurveysprovideamoreconsistentandeasiertoprocessdataset.Theatstationmethodologyis
usefulwhenahighvolumeofroutesisobservedalongthecorridorwheretheBRTservicesandinfrastructure
willbe
implemented.
This
survey
was
carried
out
using
the
onboard
methodology.
However,
on
and
off
volumeswerecapturedatthecentralstretchofrouteswithlongitinerarieswherethehighestdemandoccurs
3.1.3 Busfrequency&occupancysurveys
AFrequencyandVisualOccupancy(FVO)survey isasurveyofhowfrequenteachbusormataturouteruns
andwhattheapproximateoccupancyisofeachvehicle.Thisshowsexistingdemandonthematatunetwork
We initially selected78points for this survey.Ateachpoint,oneor two surveyors (determinedbasedon
approximateexpectedbus frequencies at each surveypoint) recorded thematatu route and assessed the
capacityandoccupancylevel.
TheimagebelowshowsthelocationswheretheFVOwascarriedout.
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Figure 11: FVO survey locations for Ndovu/A104 BRT service planning data collection. Source: ITDP
3.1.4 Buspassengertransfersurveys
ThedatacollectedduringtheBAsurveyprovidespassengerbehavioronasingleroutebysingleroutebasis.
However,many
passengers
make
their
full
trip
using
more
than
one
route.
A
transfer
survey
is
helpful
in
order
togetabettersenseoffullpassengertrips,includingtriporiginandtripdestination,beyondasingleroute.
Weselectedthefollowingstrategiclocationstoquestionpassengersabouttheirtrippatterns:
Belleviewbusstop,
Nyayobusstop,
GPObusstop,
AfricaInternationalUniversity,
Railwaysbusstop,
Nairobibus
station,
Kencombusstage,
Odeonbusstage,
Westlandsbusstage,
34busstation,
ChurchArmybusstop,and
JogooRoadRailwaystation.
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Table 5: Frequency counts of surveyed routes. Source: ITDP Survey
Ifwelookattheaggregatebusfrequenciesbyroadinthestudyarea,wefindthatthehighestfrequencies
(greaterthan400busesintheAMpeakhour)areonHaileSelassieAvenueintheCBD.Frequenciesalmostas
highareexperiencedonKenyattaandonthesegmentsofroadsnearesttheCBD.
Route
Frequency
(buses/hr) Route
Frequency
(buses/hr) Route
Frequency
(buses/hr) Route
Frequency
(buses/hr)
2 32.8 33PJ 39.3 2 29.4 34B 28.0
4W 11.8 33PM 20.0 4W 13.4 34JK 18.0
7C 22.5 34B 4.0 7C 41.0 46KW 58.0
8 33.7 34JK 18.0 8 53.3 46YA 77.2
11 15.3 46KW 32.3 11 26.3 48A 28.1
11A 15.7 46YA 32.5 11A 15.7 48B 4.5
11B 17.3 58 6.3 11B 21.3 48KW 10.0
12C 6.2 69 142.0 14A 10.1 48OT 12.0
12D 2.5 102 15.4 14B 4.0 58 6.8
15 51.9 105 57.5 19C2 27.0 69 29.7
16 9.8 110A 15.3 24c 39.1 102 16.9
19C2 28.5 111 30.7 30 32.5 110K 13.7
23KN 59.3 115 4.5 32AY 13.0 111 29.0
24 6.4 118 5.0 33CA 20.0 118 12.5
24C 39.1 119 10.8 33IM 29.9 119 14.0
32AY 20.0 3839 13.1 33MK 9.5 125 32.4
33CA 20.0 33NG 60.0 126 10.0
33FE 26.8 33PJ 26.0 3839 17.5
33NG 39.3 33UT 30.8
OUTBOUND(AWAYFROMCBD) INBOUND(TOCBD)
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Figure 13: Existing aggregate matatu frequencies for all routes surveyed during AM peak hour.
4.2 Existingpublictransportspeeds
Themapbelowshowsexistingbusspeedsonallofthestreetswheresurveyswereconducted.Unsurprisingly,
theslowestspeedsarenearestthecitycenter,andinsideofthecitycenter,whilethespeedsgetfasterfarther
awayfromthecitycenter.OntheA104,theslowestspeedsarefoundbetweenLangataRoadandthe
WestlandsRoundabout.Withinthecitycenter,allroadssufferveryslowspeeds.
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Figure 14: Existing average matatu speeds for all routes surveyed. AM peak hour
4.3 Existingpublictransportpassengerdemand
Themapbelowshowsexistingstopbystopboardingandalightingvolumesforallmataturoutessurveyed.
Theorangetrianglespointinguprepresentboardingsandthepurpletrianglespointingdownrepresent
alightings.ItshowsthatthemostboardingsandalightingshappenintheCBD,particularlyontheeasternside.
BecausethesurveywasfortheAMpeakhour,therearemorealightingsinandneartheCBDthanboardings.
Thismap
is
important
as
it
shows
where
most
passengers
are
actually
going.
As
we
design
BRT
service
scenarios,asdescribedinthesectionstofollow,weattempttorouteserviceswherepassengerdemand
actuallyis.
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Figure 15: Existing stop-by-stop boarding and alighting volumes for all routes surveyed. AM peak hour.
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Figure 17: Existing matatu loads on A104, from Naivahsa Rd to Westlands Roundabout AM peak.
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Figure 18: Existing matatu load on A104 corridor and CBD, AM peak hour.
Thepeakhourridershipisalsohighwithanaggregateridershipof10,346passengersperhourperdirection
(pphpd)justnorthoftheCBD(headedsouthboundintotheCBD)and8,564justsouthoftheCBD(headed
northboundintotheCBD).ThispphpdoccursonUhuruHighwayjustnorthoftheCBDinthesouthbound
directionwheremanymataturoutesoperateanddemandishigh.
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Figure 19: Existing matatu loads on A104 corridor, south of CBD to Imara Diama Railway.
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Figure 20: Existing matatu loads on A104 corridor, approaching airport, from Likoni Rd to JKIA. AM peak.
5
ServiceplanfortheNdovu/A104BRT
5.1 Modelingprocess
Usingalloftheexistingconditionsinformationshownintheprevioussection,wethenbuiltapublictransport
modelforthecorridor.Thismodelallowsustoprovideareasonableestimate,groundedinactualdata,ofBRT
ridershipunderavarietyofservicescenarios.Becausethismodelisbasedonactualexistingtransportdata
collectedinthefield,itismorereliablethanamodelwhichlooksonlyatpopulationandemploymentand
makesbroadassumptionsabouttripmaking.
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ThefigurebelowprovidesanoverviewofthemodelingprocesscarriedoutbyITDPinNairobi.
Figure 21 Overview of survey, modeling and BRT service plan process.
Inordertobuildamodel,wefirstreplicatedtherelevantportionsoftheNairobistreetnetworkinourmodel,
usingthemodelingsoftwarepackageEmme4.Onthestreetnetwork,wethencodedtheexistingpeakhour
speeds,ascollected.
Inordertomodelexistingtrippatterns,wethenusedthestopbystopboardingandalightingdataand
convertedit
into
full
trip
origin
destination
pairs.
That
is,
the
surveys
allowed
us
to
count
how
many
people
wereboardingatonestation(e.g.,Nyayo)andhowmanypeoplewerealightingatanotherstation(e.g.,
Railways).ButthiskindofsurveydoesnottellushowmanyofthepeopleboardingatNyayoarealightingat
Railways.WedonotknowwherethepassengersboardingatNyayoalight.
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WethereforeusedwhatiscalledaFratardistributionmodel2inordertotransformtheboarding/alighting
surveyintoastoptostoptripmatrix.AFratarmodelisaprobabilistictoolwhichestimateshowmany
passengersboardingatonespecificstationarealightingatanotherspecificstation.Theresult,therefore,isa
stopto
stop
trip
matrix.
Thestoptostopmatrixwasthentransformedintoafullorigindestination(OD)matrixaccordingtotransfer
surveydata.However,theODmatrixatthatpointwasonlybasedonasurveysampleofpassengersboarding
andalighting.TogetthefullODmatrix,wethenrelatedthenumberofpeoplecountedasboardingand
alightingateachstop,tothetotalnumberoftransitpassengersperdirectionperhourateachsurveypoint.
Thetotalnumberofpublictransitpassengersinthepeakhourwastakenfromthedatacollectedduringthe
FVOsurvey,inwhichweobtainedactualdataonhourlypassengertripspassingcheckpoints.Wethus
expandedthisODmatrixbytheactualnumberofpassengersusingthesysteminthepeakhour.
Oncewe
had
completed
this,
we
were
ready
to
begin
modeling
future
scenarios.
A
BRT
service
scenario
is
modeledbyincreasingthespeedsontheroadlinkswhereBRTinfrastructureisexpectedsincepassengersin
themodelmaketheirfuturetravelchoicesbasedonfindingthefastestoveralltrip.Wethenaddedasetof
BRTroutes(BRTservicescenarios)tointeractwiththeBRTinfrastructure.However,noteveryscenario
assumesthesamebuildoutofBRTinfrastructure.WethereforealsodefinedBRTInfrastructureScenarios
(seeSection5.4below).
Finally,wemadetheassumption,basedonstandardpractice,thatmataturoutesthatcompetedirectlywitha
BRTroutewouldbecancelledandthereforeremoveditfromthemodelasatraveloption.Dependingonthe
BRTservice
scenario,
some
passengers
will
choose
to
use
the
BRT
and
others
will
seek
an
alternate
route
using
matatus(againnotingthatmodeledpassengerswouldhavetoseekamorecircuitousmataturoutingdueto
thefactthatdirectmatatucompetitionhasbeeneliminatedfromthemode).BRTserviceswereassumedto
carryafareof70Kshwhilematatuserviceswereassumedtocarryafareof50Ksh.Weseektofindthe
scenariothatattractsthemostpassengersatthelowestgeneralizedcostperpassengertothecity.
5.2 Modelcalibration
ThesurveyresultswereplacedintoEmmeIVandatransitdemandmodelwascreated.Themodelwas
calibratedintwosteps:First,wecalibratedthemodeleddemandforeachofthemataturoutesusingtheA104
forwhichboardingandalightingdatawascollectedandcomparedtolinkspecificdemandcalculatedfrom
frequencyandoccupancysurveys.Thisyieldedaveryhighgoodnessoffit(R2)of.964.
InFigures22and23below,eachbluepointrepresentsonelocationwhereafrequencyandoccupancycount
wasdone,asshownonthemaponp.26(Figure11).Theyaxisshowsthepassengersperhourperdirection
(PPHPD)predictedbythemodelateachofthefrequencyandoccupancysurveypointsshownonthemap
2National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques, 2012
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(Figure11).ThexaxisshowstheactualobservedPPHPDfromthesurveyateachofthesamepoints.When
thesetwofiguresmatchexactly,thebluepointshouldfallexactlyonthediagonalblueline.Thedeviancefrom
thislineiswhatismeasuredbytheR2.
IfthesamemapwerecreatedforthecalibrationofthemodelusedintheMRTSHarmonisationStudy,for
instance,therewouldonlybetwobluepoints,astheyonlycalibratedtheirmodelwithtwolocations,not
enoughtobestatisticallysignificant.
Figure 22: Calibration of model for existing matatu routes on A104 yielded a very good R2 of .964
Second,themodeledresultswerecomparedtothefrequencyandoccupancycountsforalltheroutesalong
theA104andLangata.Thisyieldedanacceptablegoodnessoffit(R2)of0.875.
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Figure 23: Calibration of model for existing matatu routes on A104 & Langata yielded an acceptable R2 of 0.875
5.3 GeneralObjectives
Generalobjectivesforthemodelingwere:
Accommodateasmanypassengersaspossible,
AdjustBRTroutestodemandpatterns.Forexample,addnewserviceswhichmoreefficientlylinkthe
corridorwith
the
CBD,
airport,
Kibera,
and
large
employment
centers
in
Nairobi.
IncludeBRTinfrastructureinadditionallocationsifithelpsgreatlytoimproveahighdemandBRT
servicebutminimizenewinfrastructureadded.
MinimizeunnecessaryturningmovementsatintersectionsbothonA104andintheCBD,
Calculatestationdimensions(length,width,andnumberofsubstops),and
CalculateBRTbusfleetrequirements(sizeandnumber).
5.4 BRTInfrastructureScenarios
BeforetestingaBRTservicescenario,theextentoftheBRTinfrastructureonwhichtheservicesinascenario
willrun
must
be
defined.
This
is
because
in
the
transit
model,
the
links
where
BRT
infrastructure
will
be
placed
willbecodedwithhigherspeeds.Inthisway,passengerswillmaketheirtripdecisionsbasedonselectionof
theshortesttrip.
Intestingservicescenarios,onedoesnotnecessarilyholdconstanttheinfrastructurescenarios.Thesecanbe
adjustediterativelyinordertofindthebestinfrastructure/servicecombination.Ofcourse,politicalandfiscal
constraintsmayultimatelydeterminetheextentoftheinfrastructure.However,wheresmallchangesinBRT
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infrastructureyieldlargeincreasesinBRTpassengervolumes,itmaybeworthconsideringmakingthese
changes.
Beforedescribing
the
BRT
service
scenarios,
we
begin
by
describing
aset
of
BRT
infrastructure
scenarios.
All
servicescenarios(below)areassociatedwithoneoftheseinfrastructurescenarios.
5.4.1 InfrastructureScenario1
InfrastructureScenario1istheextentoftheinfrastructurethatKeNHAiscurrentlyplanningtobuild.TheBRT
infrastructuresitsonA104onlyandextendsfromtheCityCabanasinterchangetotheJamesGichuru
roundabout.BeyondtheJamesGichururoundabout,spacewillbereservedforfutureBRTbutwillnotbebuilt
immediately.
Figure 24: Infrastructure Scenario 1 - KeNHA's current design
5.4.2 InfrastructureScenario2
InfrastructureScenario2istheextentoftheinfrastructurerecommendedbytheMRTSHarmonisationStudy.
LikeinInfrastructureScenario1,theBRTinfrastructurewillbebuiltonA104onlybutthelengthisgreater,
beginningat
the
Imara
Diama
rail
station
and
extending
to
Uthiru.
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Figure 25: Infrastructure Scenario 2 - MRTS Harmonization Study
5.4.3 InfrastructureScenario3
InfrastructureScenario3istheKeNHAinfrastructureonA104(InfrastructureScenario1)plusaloopthrough
theCBD.TheCBDlooptravelsonHaileSelassieAvenue,northontoMoiAvenue,andacrossUniversityWay
backtoA104.TheCBDloopwasincludedduetoextremelyslowtravelspeedsintheCBDplusamultitudeof
passengerscurrentlytravelingtoCBDdestinations.
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Figure 26: Infrastructure Scenario 3 - KeNHA + CBD loop
5.4.4 InfrastructureScenario4
InfrastructureScenario4istheKeNHAinfrastructureonA104plustheCBD(InfrastructureScenario3)plusa
1.5kilometerstretchwestonLangataRoadtotheMagadiRoadjunction.ThestretchonLangataRoadwas
includedduetoextremelyslowtravelspeedsintheCBDplusamultitudeofpassengerscurrentlytravelingto
CBDdestinations.
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Figure 27: Infrastructure Scenario 4 - KeNHA + CBD loop + Langata
5.4.5 AnoteonBRTinfrastructurethroughtheCBD
MostoftheboardingsandalightingsonmatatusoccurintheCBD.WesawinFigures15&18thatthehighest
concentrationofboardingsandalightingsforallroutessurveyedwereintheCBD.Infact,someobservations
ofwalkingtripswithintheCBDrevealedthatmostCBDtripsaredestinedforpointsaroundMoiAvenueand
east.Thisisshowninthefigurebelow.
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Figure 28: Trip generation density in Nairobi CBD. The numbers, found around Moi Avenue and to the east, indicate where thehighest number of trips originate
Infact,
the
worlds
best
BRT
systems
include
full
BRT
infrastructure
right
through
the
CBD.
This
is
the
case
in
Bogota,Johannesburg,MexicoCity,mostrecentlyDaresSalaam,andmanymore.
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Figure 29: Bogota's TransMilenio BRT goes right through the CBD
InNairobi,modelingoftheBRTcorridorshowedthatifBRTinfrastructureisnotbuiltthroughtheCBD,many
peoplewouldbeforcedtowalk0.7to1kilometertogettotheBRTonUhuruHighway.Yetingeneral,people
arewillingtowalkonly0.5kilometersatmost.
Figure 30: Volume of walking trips along CBD streets if BRT infrastructure is not included in the CBD but only on UhuruHighway
Therefore,werecommendprioritizingtheservicescenarios(below)whichoperateoneitherofthetwo
infrastructurescenarioswhichincludetheCBD(i.e,InfrastructureScenarios3&4).ThisincludesBRTServices
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ScenariosIII,IV,andV.Aswewill,see,thesescenariosperformbetterthanServiceScenariosIandIIwhichdo
notincludeBRTinfrastructureintheCBD.
5.5
BRTService
Scenarios
5.5.1 Inclusionorexclusionofroutes
Thedeterminationofwhichroutestoincludeintheserviceplanisbased,first,onexistingpublictransporttrip
patterns.TheexistingmatatuandbusroutesserveasgoodproxiesfortransitdemandpatternsinNairobi.
Matatusare,toagreatextent,routedastheyaretorespondtotheneedsofthepublictransporttraveling
public.Therefore,thereissomelogictotheexistingmataturoutingpatterns.Peoplearealsoaccustomedto
theseroutes.Therefore,wemakeourinitialserviceplanningdecisionswithsomecorrelationtotheexisting
routingsofthematatusandbusesalreadyoperatinginNairobi.Byanalyzingtheexistingroutingsanddemand
ofthematatusandbuses,wecandesignandtestasetofservicescenarios.Inordertomakethis
determination,we
use
the
following
two
criteria:
1. Percentageexistingrouteoverlapwiththecorridor:AroutethathassignificantoverlapwiththeBRT
corridorisagoodcandidateforinclusionintotheBRTsystemsincethepassengersthatusethatroute
todaywillbenefitlargelyfromBRTimprovements.However,aroutethatisincludedasaBRTroute
generallyrequirestheprocurementofnewfleet.Thus,ifmostofthetripforarouteisoperatingoff
theBRTtrunkcorridor,thebenefitsofinclusionintotheBRTserviceplanmaynotjustifythebus
procurementcost.WeconsiderpercentageoverlapforeachBRTInfrastructureScenarioasdefined
aboveasonecriterion.
2.
Avoidance
of
redundancy:
There
were
often
several
routes
serving
very
similar
trip
origins
and
destinations.BRTsystemsgenerallyhaveroutingstructuresthataresimpleenoughtobeeasily
understoodbyvisitorsandavoidredundancy.
3.
AvoidanceofStationSaturation: Ouranalysisshowsthatseveraldowntownstationsarelikelyto
saturateunlessfoursubstopsarebuilt.Itmayproveimpossibletobuildthismanysubstops
downtown,inwhichcaseroutesthatareparticularlyintensiveusersofthebottleneckstationswill
needtobeselectivelyremoved.
Theabovecriteriaarethemostimportantfactorsfordeterminingwhichroutesshouldbeincludedintothe
BRTsystem.
Thebelowtableshowseachroutesurveyed,thefrequencyoftheroute(inbuses/hour),andthepercentage
therouteoperatesonA104corridor.Fromthiswewereabletomakeaninitialdeterminationastowhich
routestoconsiderforBRTservices.Thosewithhighoverlap,(thosewithgreaterthan10%overlaponA104,
identifiedonthegraphasStructuralRoutes),regardlessoffrequency,werethenevaluatedfurtherto
determineiftheymadesensetoturnintoBRTservices.ThosewithloweroverlapontheA104corridor
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(identifiedasComplementaryRoutes),werealsoevaluated.Theroutesthathadverylittleoverlapwiththe
A104corridorwereeliminatedfromconsiderationforBRTservices.
Theremaining
routes
were
analyzed
to
determine
ifinclusion
in
any
of
the
BRT
service
scenarios
would
be
beneficial,frombothapassengerbenefitandfromanoperationalandfinancialperspective(theaddedbus
fleetoutweighstheoperationalcost).Thetablebelowshowsalltheroutessurveyed,thepercentageoverlap
withtheA104corridor,andwhethertheroutewasincludedforconsiderationinanyoftheservicescenarios.
NotethatexistingmataturoutesthatoverlapwithproposedBRTserviceswereassumedtobecancelled,
whilethoseservingODpairsnotwellservedbytheBRTservicesareassumedtocontinuedowntheA104
followingtheircurrentroute.Itisstandardpracticetocancelparallelminibusormataturouteswhenplanning
anewBRTsystem.We,therefore,didnotrunascenarioinwhichnomataturoutesarecancelledalthoughwe
arewilling.TheresultwouldlikelybeadropindemandontheBRTbutitisuncertainbyhowmuch.However,
thiswill
ultimately
be
apolitical
decision
and
the
business
plan
for
this
BRT
project
is
still
under
consideration.
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Oncethisinitialsetofrouteswasdefined,variouscombinationsofservices(servicescenarios)weretested.
FivemainservicescenariosweredefinedbasedonthedifferingBRTInfrastructureScenarios.Thatis,some
servicesmadesensetoincludewhentherewasmoreBRTinfrastructureandtoexcludewhentherewasless.
Additionally,we
tested
two
different
types
of
BRT
service
patterns
direct
services
and
trunk
feeder
services.
Assuch,wedescribethevarioustypesofBRTservicepatternsbelow.
5.5.2 BRTservicetypes
InearlyBRTsystems,BRTservicesmimickedrailservices:thatis,oneBRTservicetraveledoneachBRT
corridor.Thesearecalledtrunkonlyservicessincetheservicesoperateonlyonthetrunkinfrastructure.The
mostprimitiveformoftrunkonlyBRTsystemsoperateservicesthatmimicrailsystems:oneBRTcorridor,one
busroute.MexicoCitysBRTwasinitiallydesignedthisway.
Figure 31: Mexico City's BRT system was designed with "trunk-only" services
JakartasBRTwasalsoinitiallydesignedthisway.
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Figure 32: Jakarta's BRT was also designed with "trunk-only" services. Harmoni Station is where Lines 1, 2, and 3 intersect.
Theresult
of
designing
trunk
only
services
without
any
inter
corridor
routes
was
the
need
for
very
large
transferstations.Passengerswishingtopassfromonetrunkroutetoanotherhadtotransfer.Thisforcedlarge
volumesofpassengerstoneedlesslytransferbetweenonetrunkserviceandanother.InJakarta,thisprimitive
serviceapproachrequiredaverylargeamountoflandforatransferstation,andevenso,thestationquickly
becameovercrowdedasnewcorridorswereadded.
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Figure 33: Harmoni Station transfer facility in Jakarta could have been avoided if trunk services had been continued ratherthan forcing a transfer between trunk-only services
Overtime,sometrunkonlyBRTsystemsgraduallyevolvedtointroduceintercorridorservices.Intercorridor
servicesstilltravelonlyontheBRTinfrastructurebuttravelbetweencorridorssoastoavoidthesemajor
transfers.JakartaandMexicoCitybothfinallyintroducedintercorridorservicestoreducesevere
overcrowdingattransferstations.
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Figure 34: Jakarta added some inter-corridor services to alleviate some of the major transfer volumes occurring at stations likeHarmoni Station
Inadditiontothedesignquestionofhowtorouteservicesthatoperateonthetrunk,therealsoemergeda
questionofhowtodesignservicesthatcapturepassengersthatdonotlivewithinwalkingdistanceofatrunk
corridor.NotallBRTpassengersliveorworkdirectlyonthetrunkcorridor,soinordertobringmore
passengerstothesystem,itisgenerallynecessarytoroutesomebusesontomixedtrafficstreets(direct
services)orprovidefeederbuses.
EarlierBRTsystemssolvedthisproblembyusingfeederbuses.Inatrunkfeedersystem,trunkservices
operateonthetrunkinfrastructureonly(whethertrunkonlyorintercorridorservices)andfeederservices
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operateinmixedtrafficonly,bringingpassengerstoandfromtheBRTcorridor.BogotasTransMileniowas
designedasatrunkfeedersystem.Likewithtrunkonlyservices,trunkfeederservicesrequirelargetransfer
facilitiesbecausemanypassengersareforcedtomaketransfersbetweentrunkandfeederservices.
Additionally,many
passengers
choose
not
to
use
the
system
because
of
the
time
delay
associated
with
this
cumbersometransfer.
Foryears,itwasbelievedthatdirectserviceswerenotcompatiblewithfullfeaturedBRTtrunkservices.Inthe
lastfewyears,however,directserviceshavebeensuccessfullycombinedwithfullfeaturedBRTontrunk
routes,allowingthebestofbothworlds.PriortoenteringdedicatedBRTinfrastructure,servicesoperatein
mixedtrafficonlocalstreets.ThesamevehiclethenenterstheBRTinfrastructure,eliminatinganyneedfora
transfer.ThisrequiresabusthatcansuccessfullyinterfacewithatrunkBRTstationwhilealsoprovidinga
comfortabletraditionalcurbentrance.Thisisdoneeitherbyhavinglowfloorbusesandlowplatformsattrunk
BRTstations,
or
by
having
BRT
buses
having
high
platform
doors
on
one
side
of
the
bus
and
steps
for
normal
curbentry.
Byeliminatingtheneedtotransfer,passengersoveralltriptimesarereducedandtheyhavethecomfortofa
oneseatride.OntheBRTcorridor,servicesoperatewithintheBRTinfrastructure,withstopsatcenteraligned
stationplatformsanddoorsontherightsideofthebuses.OfftheBRTcorridor,servicesstopalongthe
curbsidewithadditionaldoorsontheleftsideofthebuses.Inadditiontohighertimesavingsandmoredirect
routing,directservicesalsoreduceinfrastructurecostsandlandconsumptionduetoareductionintheneed
forlargetransferfacilities.
Guangzhou,China
was
the
first
BRT
system
to
have
afully
direct
services
model
that
also
had
full
featured
BRT
trunkinfrastructure.
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Figure 35: Guangzhou's fully direct services BRT system includes services that operate both on- and off-corridor
Aroundthesametime,Johannesburg,SouthAfricaalsoimplementedsomedirectservicesontheReaVaya
BRT(knowninJohannesburgascomplementaryservices).Infact,Johannesburgimplementedahybrid
systemoftrunkfeederanddirectservices.
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Figure 36: Johannesburg implemented a hybrid system of direct services and trunk-feeder services
Becausedirectservicestendtoattractmorepassengers,dueprovidingaoneseatride,becausedirectservices
tendtoneedlessfleet,andbecausedirectservicesavoidtransferterminaldelayandindirectnessofroute
delay,andastheyalsoavoidtheneedforalargeandexpensivetransferfacility,wegenerallyprefertotest
directservices.
TheMRTSHarmonisationStudyassumedatrunkonlyservicewithnointercorridorroutes:themostbasic
formofBRTservices.Asthestudynevermadeclearwhetherthereweretobenofeederservicesorwhether
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theservicewasassumedtohavefeederroutesyettobespecified,ITDPcreatedtwoservicescenarios
(ScenariosI&III)whichsplitourproposeddirectservicesintotrunkfeederservices.
5.5.3
Scenario
I:
Trunk
Feeder
on
KeNHA
Infrastructure
(Infrastructure
Scenario
1)
ScenarioIisasetoftrunkfeederservicesthatoperateonA104underthecurrentKeNHAinfrastructureplan
(InfrastructureScenario1).Thisisamoredetailedserviceplanscenariothatisconsistentwithwhatwas
proposedintheHarmonisationStudy.ItprovidesfortrunkservicesthatoperatebetweenCityCabanasand
JamesGichuruwithonelocalandoneexpressservice.AstheinfrastructureontheA104haspassinglanes,we
addedatrunkexpressserviceasitdidnotappeartobeprecludedbytheHarmonisationStudyproposals,and
ithadsignificanttimesavingsadvantages.Transferterminalswouldberequiredatbothends(i.e.,City
CabanasandJamesGichuru)aswellasneartheCBD.Fromthere,weaddedseveralfeederservicesthatwere
notdetailedbutnotprecludedbytheHarmonisationStudyproposal.Thesefeedpassengersintothetrunk
terminalsfrommultiplepopulardestinations.
Figure 37: BRT Service Scenario I: Trunk-Feeder on KeNHA Infrastructure
Additionally,whilethisscenarioincludesfeederservicesatthefourterminals,becausetheserviceplanforthe
longertermMRTSnetwork,asfoundintheMRTSHarmonisationStudy,precludestheinclusionofinter
corridorroutes,threeadditionaltransferstationswouldneedtobebuiltwheretheBRTNdovuService(A104)
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crossestheproposedBRTSimbaServiceatLangataRoad,wherethesetwoservicescrosstheChuiLine(Red)
atHaileSelassie,andwherethesetwoservicescrosstheNyati(Green)LineatKenyatta.Inaddition,an
exclusiveBRTturningmovementwouldneedtobeprovidedtheintersectionoftheA104andUniversityWay.
Figure 38: Under Scenario I, two major transfer facilities will be required in order to facilitate transfers to future BRT corridors
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Runningthisscenariothroughthemodelyieldedthefollowingresults:
Table 7: Results of Scenario I
Thisscenariorequires284busesintotal,71articulated(18meter)and213standard(12meter).Thescenario
is
expected
to
attract
approximately
305,000
passengers
per
day,
and
33,877
passengers
during
the
peak
hour.Some63%ofthetotaltripsareforcedtotransferfromafeederrouteontothetrunkservice.(27,404+
22,620=50,024*0.63=33,877).Dailydemandiscomposedof58,257tripsboardingafeederbusandgetting
offthefeederbeforeitreachesthetrunkservice,another154,322dailytripsthatboardfeedersandtransfer
ontothetrunkservice,andanother92,313dailytripsthatareboardingdirectlyontoatrunkservice.
5.5.4 ScenarioII:DirectservicesonKeNHAInfrastructure(InfrastructureScenario1)
ScenarioIIproposesasetofdirectservicesthatwouldoperateontheA104onthecurrentKeNHA
infrastructureplan(InfrastructureScenario1)butwouldtravelthroughtheCBDwherepassengerdemandis
high.Thatis,servicesoperatealongtrunkBRTinfrastructurebetweenCityCabanasandJamesGichuruand
continuebeyond
to
multiple
destinations,
without
aforced
transfer.
The
routes
are
generally
the
same
in
this
scenarioasinScenarioIexceptratherthancuttingtheroutesatfourterminalsandcontinuingthemas
feeders,theroutesaresimplycontinuous.Thisscenariodoesnotrequiretransferfacilities.Thisscenarioalso
variesfromScenarioIinthattheroutestravelthroughtheCBD.InScenarioI,thiswouldnothavemadesense
aswewouldhaveneededtocreatefeederroutesforjusttheCBDportionoftheserviceplan.Thesefeeder
routeswouldhavebeenextremelyshortandstuckintrafficfortheirentireroutes.Hence,weonlybegan
routingservicesthroughtheCBDinthisscenario.
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max Hdwy
Route type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
T1 Artic 32.7 84.03 13 602 68 516 2 921 3 834 2.00 24.0 2.5 34
T2 Artic 32.7 66.03 13 802 92 119 3 097 5 318 1.66 33.2 1.8 37
TOTAL 65 150 27 404 160 635 6 017 71
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max Hdwy
Route type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
F105 Std 29.8 126.7 7 254 74 773 5 223 4 348 4.03 48.3 1.2 102
F11 Std 9.5 53.9 1 562 4 385 445 950 0.88 10.6 5.7 10
F110A Std 39.2 115.9 1 687 23 559 924 967 0.90 10.7 5.6 21
F110B Std 18.4 54.8 1 033 7 544 310 650 0.60 7.2 8.3 7
F12 Std 9.3 71.8 130 249 32 76 0.07 4.0 15.0 5
F23 Std 6.9 18.6 3 111 10 645 528 2 481 2.30 27.6 2.2 9F30 Std 14.6 50.9 2 140 9 706 595 1 227 1.14 13.6 4.4 12
F33 Std 2.3 5.9 2 354 2 636 182 1 716 1.59 19.1 3.1 2
F33F Std 12.1 83.9 1 107 3 490 389 568 0.53 6.3 9.5 9
F33U Std 27.0 165.2 1 406 11 721 1 067 813 0.75 9.0 6.6 25
F34 Std 15.2 54.0 76 228 17 76 0.07 4.0 15.0 4
F48 Std 13.0 105.3 760 2 752 387 339 0.31 3.8 15.9 7
TOTAL 197 907 22 620 151 689 10 098 213
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Figure 39: BRT Service Scenario II: Direct services on KeNHA Infrastructure
Runningthisscenariothroughthemodelyieldedthefollowingresults:
Table 8: Results of Scenario II
Thisscenariorequires352busesintotal,241articulated(18meter)and111standard(12meter).Thescenario
isexpectedtoattractapproximately391,158passengersperdayand43,462passengersduringthepeakhour.
Thisscenariohas86,000moredailypassengersthanthetrunkfeederscenario,andeachbuscarries1,111
dailypassengers,comparedtothetrunkfeederscenariowhereeachbusonlycaries1,074dailypassengers.In
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max HdwyRoute type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
B105X Artic 44.9 183.73 8 495 112 243 7 489 4 568 1.43 28.6 2.1 88
B11 Std 15.5 82.76 2 055 6 811 647 1 024 0.57 11.4 5.3 16
B110A Std 62.4 184.39 2 047 35 766 1 520 973 0.54 10.8 5.5 34
B110B Std 41.7 126.30 1 466 16 667 758 690 0.38 7.7 7.8 17
B12 Std 16.5 96.29 1 212 4 386 347 637 0.35 7.1 8.5 12
B23 Artic 22.0 82.75 6 188 44 143 2 952 3 252 1.02 20.3 3.0 29
B30 Artic 29.7 110.56 3 363 23 758 1 546 1 500 0.47 9.4 6.4 18
B33 Artic 24.0 73.11 5 655 46 305 2 240 2 997 0.94 18.7 3.2 23
B33F Artic 35.3 155.33 2 899 27 868 1 750 1 064 0.33 6.7 9.0 18
B33U Std 50.3 247.68 2 965 18 738 1 473 676 0.38 7.5 8.0 32
B34 Artic 38.4 124.48 3 245 36 387 1 850 1 745 0.55 10.9 5.5 23
B48 Artic 28.2 161.43 3 872 34 738 3 095 2 490 0.78 15.6 3.9 42
TOTAL 409 1629 43 462 407 810 25 666 352
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otherwords,inanapplestoapplescomparison,thedirectservicescenarioattractsmorepassengersand
requireslessfleetperpassengerthanthetrunkfeederscenarioonthesameinfrastructure.However,thelack
ofBRTinfrastructureintheCBDslowsdowntheseservicesdramaticallyascomparedtothefollowingthree
scenarios.
5.5.5 ScenarioIII:TrunkFeederonKeNHAInfrastructure+CBD(InfrastructureScenario3)
ForScenarioIII,fullBRTinfrastructureinalooparoundtheCBDwasassumed.Basedonpreviouswork,
discussedindetailintheNairobiBRTPhaseIInfrastructure&IntersectionRecommendationsDetailed
Report,thebestloopforBRTinfrastructureisHaileSelassieAvenue,MoiAvenue,andUniversityWay.
ScenarioIIIassumesthattrunkserviceoperateinsidethisCBDloop.Feederserviceswereincludedinthis
scenarioinamannersimilartothoseinScenarioI:trunkrouteswereseveredatthetwoterminals(City
CabanasandJamesGichuru)andseveralfeederservicestookpassengersinmultipledirectionsfromthere.
Twotransfer
terminals
are
required
in
this
scenario.
Figure 40: BRT Service Scenario III: Trunk-feeder on KeNHA Infrastructure + CBD
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NairobiNdovu/A104BRTServicePlan Page62
Additionally,aswithScenarioI,severaladditionaltransferfacilitieswouldberequiredinandaroundtheCBD
inordertofacilitatethetransferbetweentheNdovuCorridorandfutureBRTcorridors.
InScenarioIII,wedidnotincludethemataturoutesthatcurrentlycomeinfromLangataRoad.Thisisbecause
LangataRoadistoocongestedtoprovideareliableBRTfeederservice.Weconsideredasanalternative,
includingfullBRTinfrastructureonLangataRoadinthisscenariosothatfeederservicescouldbypassthis
congestion.However,LangataRoadissoclosetotheCBDandthetimepenaltytopassengerscomingfrom
LangataRoadimposedbyatransfertothetrunkrouteforsuchashortdistanceistoogreatandcannotbe
justifiedbyprovidingafeederservice.Instead,themataturouteswhichcurrentlyuseLangataRoadandturn
ontoA104willcontinueastheycurrentlyaretoday.ThiswillreducethenumberofpassengersusingtheBRT
andwillmeanmorematatusonA104inthesegmentbetweenLangataRoadandtheCBD.Forasimilar
reason,RoutesB11&B12,whichalsoturnoffofA104atadistanceneartheCBD,wereeliminatedaswell.
ScenarioIII
loses
passengers
to
non
BRT
routes
because
of
the
transfer
required.
For
example,
passengers
who
aregoingtotheairportfromtheCBDwilltravelsouthoneitherroutesB34,B33U,B33Fbutwillhavetomake
atransfertoafeederroute(F34)tocompletetheirtrip.Alternatively,mataturoute34JKIAcircumventsthisby
travellingfromtheCBDalongJogooRoadanddoesnotrequirepassengerstotransfer.Despitethefaster
speedsontheBRT,the34JKIAisstillashortertripanddoesntrequireatransfer.
Table 9: Results of Scenario III
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max Hdwy
Route type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
B1 Artic 35.6 91.01 21 123 112 358 4 797 6 375 1.99 39.8 1.5 61
B2 Artic 35.6 73.01 12 296 95 191 3 229 4 157 1.52 26.0 2.3 32
TOTAL 71 164 33 419 207 549 8 026 93
DATA MODEL MODEL RESULTS
Veh Length Run time Pax Pax Max Max Hdwy
Route type (km) (min) Boarding km hours volume load Freq (min) Fleet
F105 Std 29.8 126.7 7 254 74 773 5 223 4 348 4.03 48.3 1.2 102
F11 Std 9.5 53.9 1 568 4 535 467 950 0.35 10.6 5.7 10
F110A Std 39.