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Myanmar’sRapidRuralTransformation:
EvidencefromtheDelta&DryZoneBenBelton(MSU)
MateuszFilipski(IFPRI)AungTunOo,AungTun(CESD)
FoodSecurityPolicyProject
Agrifood XXIVConferenceBandung,IndonesiaDecember5,2017
ThebriefwassupportedwithfinancialassistancefromtheLivelihoodsandFoodSecurityTrustFund(LIFT), andisalsomadepossiblebythegeneroussupportoftheAmericanpeoplethroughtheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)underthe
FeedtheFutureinitiative.TheviewsexpressedhereinshouldinnowaybetakentoreflecttheofficialopinionofanyoftheLIFTdonorsortheviewsofUSAIDortheUnitedStatesGovernment
Introduction
• Ruraltransformation• RuralMyanmar• Data• KeytrendsinDeltaandDryZone
1. Migration2. Mechanization3. Ruralnon-farmeconomy
• Implications&nextsteps
“Ruraltransformation”
• Widelyusedterm(e.g.IFAD,2016;FAO2017),butvaguelydefined• Featuresinmainstreampolicydiscourseanddevelopmenteconomics(e.g.Timmer),andcriticalagrarianstudies(e.g.Kay,Bernstein)• Foreconomists,ruralhalfofstructuraltransformation– seenasthefoundationofeconomicdevelopment• ForCAS,linkedtoagrariantransition,differentiation,economiccompulsion
RuralMyanmar
• Political&economicreformsfrom2011• LeastdevelopedeconomyinSEAsia• AgriculturalGDP=38%;Population70%rural• ConventionalviewofMyanmar’sruraleconomyisoneofstagnation(notransformation):
“ThelevelofagriculturalmechanizationinMyanmarisstilllow…notasurprisegiventhelowwagesinruralareas,theexcessagriculturallabor,andthe
still- lackinginfrastructure andregulatoryenvironmentformachineryserviceproviders…Farmersingeneraldonothavetheaccesstolong-termcapital,preventinginvestmentsinagriculturalmachinery”(WorldBank,2016)
• BUT,situationchangingveryquickly
Datasources• Tworecentsurveyswithhouseholdandcommunitycomponents:• Delta:MyanmarAquaculture-AgricultureSurvey2016,4townships,1100HH+74communities• RuralEconomyandAgricultureDryZoneSurvey2017,4townships,1600HH;14townships,300communities
• Bothaimatgenerating‘benchmark’ofcurrentstatusofruraleconomy(farm&non-farm);changeswithinpastdecade
DryZone
Delta
DELTA
DRYZONE
1.Acceleratingmigration,risingwages
Acceleratingmigration
Cumulativeshareofalllong-termmigrantsbyyearfirstmigrated(%)1995-2014/15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995
1997
1999
2001
2005
2008
2010
2012
2014
UrbanRural
Delta
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
DomesticInternational
DryZone
Migrationisdrivinglargeruralwageincreases
+8%
+32%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2011 2013 2016
REAL
DAILYW
AGES(M
MK)
Delta
+20%
+15%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2012 2014 2016
DryZone
Changeinrealdailywagesformalecasuallabor(Delta&DryZone)
2.Agriculturemechanizingrapidly
Machinesdisplacingdraftanimals;Mechanizedharvesting
Shareoffarmersusingmachinery&draftanimals,forlandpreparationandharvesting,2016(Delta)
%OFFARM
HOUSH
EOLD
SUSING
Rentalservicesenablingaccesstomachines
+216%
+1839%
+1801%
+170%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10yearsago
5yearsago
Today 10yearsago
5yearsago
Today 10yearsago
5yearsago
Today 10yearsago
5yearsago
Today
2WT 4WT CombineHarvester Thresher
SHAR
EOFFARM
HHs Own Rent
Shareoffarmersusingmachinery,bymachinetype,yearandownershipstatus(DryZone)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Anymachine 2WT 4WT Combine Thresher
T1 T2 T3
Rentalservices→scale-neutral
ShareofHHusingmachinerybylandholdingtercileandmachinetype(DryZone)
3.Ruralnon-farmeconomygrowingrapidly
Non-farmbusinessesgrowingquickly
+233
%
+50%
+44%
+67%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Motortransport
Retail Personalservices
Foodservices
MEA
NNo.ENTERP
RISES/VILLAG
E Delta
2011 2016
+200
% +57%
+33%
+56%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Motortransport
Retail Personalservices
Foodservices
DryZone
2011 2017
Meannumbersofnon-farmenterprisepervillagebytype,2011&2016/17
Implications&nextsteps
• RuraleconomyandlivelihoodsinruralMyanmarhavetransformedprofoundly,andextremelyrapidlypost2011• BUT:verydifferentinterpretationsofwhatthismeanspossible,dependingontheoreticallens• Nextsteps- Userecalldataonruralwages,migrationandlaboruseinmechanizedandnon-mechanizedagricultureto:• 1)Estimatechangesinthevalueofincomesderivedfromagriculturallabourandmigration.• 2)Analyzethechangingdistributionofincomesamongdifferentsegmentsoftheruralpopulation,definedbylandownership,landholdingsize,andgender.