8/12/2019 MY TOTALLY UNSCIENTIFIC INDIA POLL PREDICTIONS
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MY TOTALLY UNSCIENTIFIC POLL PREDICTIONS
Since everyone and his grandmother has taken to predicting the
results of the forthcoming
general election, I thought I would get into the act too. The
difference is, my guesstimates are
totally unscientific. They are not based on surveys or scholarly
research, but purely on my gutfeeling. If even half of them turn
out to be accurate, no one will be more surprised than me.
Anyway, here goes.
Let us start with the BJP. According to the pundits, Narendra
Modis ascension to the throne
is inevitable and pre-ordained. This is probably true. The
dichotomy is that the challenge, if
any, to Modi will come not from the Congress or the Aam Aadmi
Party (AAP),or the regional
parties, but from within the BJP itself. Here's one indicator.
Modi has announced his intention
to contest a second seat, besides in Gujarat, from Varanasi or
Lucknow. Why an irresistible
force like Modi feels the need to hedge his bets is for him to
say. Anyway, neither of the
incumbents, Murli Manohar Joshi or Rajnath Singh respectively,
seem to be eager to take a
bullet for the King-Emperor. Modi may eventually get his way,
but it will be messy. Also
word is that the other two aspirants to the BJP throne, Arun
Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj - as
well as veteran L K Advani - would not be averse to the Great
Leader taken down a peg or
two.
The Congress is universally regarded as the underdog, which has
its advantages. Since
expectations are so low, no political outfit is expending much
energy in taking the Grand Old
Party down. Moreover, Ive always felt that Modi peaked a bit too
early. He has been giving
essentially the same stump speech for months now; and it is
getting a bit stale. Even the digsat the Dynasty are becoming
monotonous. Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is just hitting
his
stride. He has wisely decided not to compete with Modi in terms
of massive rallies and
rhetorical speeches. He is instead talking to disparate small
constituencies which
unexpectedly could coalesce into a significant vote bank. The
BJP is giving him free rein
because they have already written off the Congress as irrelevant
and no longer a threat. This
indifference is beneficial to the Congress, as it leaves them at
liberty to spring a few
surprises.
The new kid on the block, the AAP is very adroitly playing the
spoiler. Their grandstanding
and sensational disclosures are alternatively evoking feelings
of outrage, dismay and
admiration. It is to Arvind Kejriwals credit that of all the
political leaders, he alone has been
able to rattle the omnipotent Narendra Modi. The BJP may attempt
to dismiss Kejriwals 16
questions and attempts to dispel the myth of a Gujarat paradise,
as mere pinpricks, but they
are resonating with a large number of voters and chipping away
at Modi's cloak of
invincibility. Do not be surprised if the AAP emerges as a
significant block in the new
Parliament.
To conclude then, the BJP will be the single largest single
party, but will have to scramble to
cobble together enough allies to get a majority. The perception
of the Congress being reduced
to double digits may be premature and they may yet give a
respectable account of themselves.
