8/7/2019 Museveni Set for Re-election in Postwar Uganda
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Ugandans go to the polls on February 18 for what will be only
the second multi-party elections since President Yoweri Museveni
came to power in 1986. He won a landslide victory in the first
democratic presidential and parliamentary ballot in 2006 although
much has changed since then.
The LRA insurgency is over, the economy is the focus of
attention and the opposition are better prepared. Blake
Evans-Pritchard, IWPR Africa Editor, believes the upcoming polls
will be more closely contested but suggests Museveni will
ultimately triumph again.
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How have things changed in Uganda since the last election was
held?The Uganda of 2011 is very different to that of 2006. In 2006,
the country had just emerged from two decades of brutal civil war,
which had exacted a huge toll
on the civilian population in the north. It was not until 2005
that the Lords Resistance Army, LRA Ugandas notorious rebel army
led by Joseph Kony was successfully chased out of the country.
At the time of the 2006 presidential and parliamentary election,
thousands of people were still confined to camps for internally
displaced people, IDPs, and themassive effort to return them back
home had yet to begin. Now the focus in thenorth is less about
ending the rebel insurgency and more about bringing development to
the region.
This means that peoples priorities have changed. They are not
fighting for peaceanymore, but for economic expansion, jobs and a
better life.
The other big change is that in 2006 opposition candidates were
not fully prepared to contest an election against the incumbent
president.
This was the first time that a multi-party election had been
held in the countryfor a generation, and the tendency was for the
opposition to focus on the failings of the incumbent government
rather than policy initiatives of their own.
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Is the outcome of the election inevitable?It seems pretty
certain that Museveni will win another term in office. Ugandas
mu
lti-party system is still in its infancy, and thus affords the
incumbent president huge advantages over the opposition. In
particular, while Museveni remains inpower he can continue to run
his campaign out of government offices, use official transportation
and has an abundance of manpower at his disposal. He also continues
to draw a state salary while campaigning.
Moreover, for the past five years, Museveni has been in a
position to lobby forhis re-election in a way that members of the
opposition have not been. Some suggest that the resurfacing of
roads in key parts of the country were a way of winning votes.
This said, though, there could still be some surprises and two
strong oppositioncandidates have emerged.
One is Kizza Besigye, a former colonel in the Ugandan army. He
is standing for the Forum for Democratic Change, FDC, and was the
2006 runner-up with 37 per cent
8/7/2019 Museveni Set for Re-election in Postwar Uganda
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of the vote. A charismatic politician, Besigye is particularly
popular among younger people, who are less enthused about
maintaining continuity than their parents are.
The other main candidate, Olara Otunnu, is widely regarded as
flag-bearer for grievances in northern Uganda, which will be an
important battleground in the coming election as opposition
candidates find it harder to win votes from their trad
itional supporters. Having worked for eight years at the United
Nations, Otunnualso has strong international credentials, which are
important to the Ugandan people.
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What are the issues that will decide the election?The end of the
20-year rebel insurgency in the north of the country has changedthe
shape of elections in Uganda.
The north has traditionally been an important opposition
stronghold, but the end
of the civil war and the influx of development money into the
region have led to a more favourable perception of the ruling
National Resistance Movement, NRM.
It is true that opposition politicians still enjoy a great deal
of influence inthe region, but the outcome is not as certain as it
was in the past.The Baganda, Ugandas largest ethnic group, are also
likely to play a pivotal rolein the forthcoming election.
The traditional kingdom of Buganda stretches across the countrys
central region,and includes the capital Kampala. Historically,
leaders of Uganda have always tried to win support from this ethnic
group.
In 2006, the Bagandan vote was an important factor in securing
Museveni another
term in office. This time around, their support for the NRM is
less obvious.
In 2009, the Baganda clashed with security forces in Kampala
after the government prevented their king from visiting a part of
their territory.Furthermore, the Baganda strongly oppose a
controversial bill backed by the government, which seeks to
regulate the activities of traditional leaders.
On top of all this, you have the traditional ethnic attachment
that always dominates politics in Africa. This means that Museveni
is likely to do well in his homeland of western Uganda.
Speaking more broadly, many Ugandans are now looking to the
future of their country which means that they are particularly
concerned with economic development and carving out a better life
for themselves and their children.
Any politician that can convince the Ugandan people that this is
what they standfor should do well.
