Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern Man

Prof. Aldwyn CooperALT Meeting

Reading

27th October 2005

Clarke's First Law

When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.’

Arthur C. Clarke

‘When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right.

•Introducing the Cast •The Urgent Call•The Commotion in the night•Examining the Corpse•Stuck in the snowdrift•Breaking Free•An unscheduled stop•Using the Little Grey Cells•Safe Arrival

Original Film CastHercule Poirot .... Albert Finney

Mrs. Hubbard .... Lauren Bacall

Signor Bianchi .... Martin Balsam

Greta Ohlsson .... Ingrid Bergman

Countess Andrenyi .... Jacqueline Bisset

Pierre Paul Michel .... Jean-Pierre Cassel

Colonel Arbuthnot .... Sean Connery

Mr. Beddoes .... John Gielgud

Princess Dragomiroff .... Wendy Hiller

Hector MacQueen .... Anthony Perkins

Mary Debenham .... Vanessa Redgrave

Hildegarde .... Rachel Roberts

Mr. Ratchett .... Richard Widmark

Count Andrenyi .... Michael York

Mr. Hardman .... Colin Blakely

ALT CastHercule Poirot .... ?

Mrs. Hubbard .... Diana Laurillard

Signor Bianchi .... MLE software suppliers

Greta Ohlsson .... Student Services

Countess Andrenyi .... Carol Twigg

Pierre Paul Michel .... Web geeks

Colonel Arbuthnot .... Bruxelles

Mr. Beddoes .... The UKeU

Princess Dragomiroff .... The Educational Establishment

Hector MacQueen .... Matthew Pitinsky

Mary Debenham .... DfEE

Hildegarde .... Ruth Kelly

Mr. Ratchett .... International HE Markets

Count Andrenyi .... Curtis Bonk

Mr. Hardman .... Colin Blakely

Robert Reich

“It doesn’t matter whether you are in a developed or developing nation, the drivers of the future are:

– Globalisation– Demographics– Technology

A nation’s wealth is its people and the respect that is shown by and to them.

Prof. Robert Reich, Brandeis University and UC Berkeley Secretary for Labor to Clinton

Administration

The Urgent Call

Globalisation

• The Poverty of Protectionism• The Importance of Internationalisation• The Increasing value of research and

education• The Educational Export Market Models• Internationalisation - a Backlash ?• Economic Drivers

Demographics

• Shift in World populations• Increased economic pressures• Developed nation baby boomers• The age imbalance black hole• Growing Teacher Shortage worldwide

Technology

• Technology is an irresistible driver• Technology is an enabler• e-Education offers options for efficiency

gains, real learner support and customer care

• Content Management• Disaggregated systems

The Commotion in the Night

New technologyThe Current Reality

There has been no real productivity growth acceleration in the 99 percent of the [US] economy located outside the sector which manufactures computer hardware................ Indeed, far from exhibiting a productivity acceleration, the productivity slowdown in manufacturing has gotten worse; when computers are stripped out of the durable manufacturing sector, there has been a further productivity slowdown in durable manufacturing in 1995-00 as compared to 1972- 95, and no acceleration at all in non-durable manufacturing.

‘Beyond the Digital Economy’

Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

Being Digital or Being Wise

The concepts of “knowledge economy” and “knowledge worker” are based on the view that information and knowledge are at the centre of economic growth and development. The ability to produce and use information effectively is thus a vital source of skills for many individuals.

OECD 2000.

Being Digital or Being Wise

Much attention has been devoted to digital technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of knowledge for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society.

‘Technological Forecasting & Social Change’ Conceição et al. (2001),

Growth in the KBI sectorKnowledge-based industries include high level services and the high and medium-high technology manufacturing sectors, the gradual transition towards knowledge-based economies has intensified in the last part of the 20th century.

According to the OECD more than 50% of the OECD countries’ GDP is associated with knowledge-based industries. It is asserted that the intensity of the acceleration of knowledge creation and diffusion requires a more dynamic characterization and that we should speak about the emergence of a learning society.

UK Knowledge Industry growth

Global Knowledge Need

• Education

• Environment

• Energy

• Electronics

• Engineering

• Media

• Medicine

• Management

• Agriculture

• Biotechnology

Identifying PrioritiesFundamentally, for a real learning economy, the performance of knowledge-rich competitive environments depend on the quality of human resources (their skills, competencies, education level, learning capability) and on the activities that exploit the generation and diffusion of knowledge. In a context of globalization, the development of research and education agendas on technology policy , the management of innovation and communication of knowledge are critical.

‘Beyond the Digital Economy’

Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

World Investment in Higher Education

Examining the Corpse

Status Quo - present trends continue

• Polarisation between HE systems with a divergence between Anglo Saxon systems (increasingly global) and others.

• World skills continue to be most important policy approaches in transnational education but revenue generating approaches continue to gain in importance.

• National system of quality assurance, accreditation and recognition of qualification and immigration policies will play a leading role in regulating international mobility. Trade agreements will play a secondary role.

Three Globalisation Scenarios

• The Competition Scenario

• The South Africa Scenario

• The Backlash Scenario

The Competition Scenario

• US regains ground and organises effectively

• Australia and New Zealand continue their rise

• New international entrants offer low cost access including Russia, India and China

• Additional private sector supply including University of Phoenix, Laureate, Career Education Corporation

• New entrants to the FE and HE market

The South Africa Scenario

• Pre 2000, unrestrained foreign and private activity

• Climate of suspicion and profiteering

• Imposition of branch model and anti franchising

• Foreign provider numbers fell drastically

• Regulatory tightening

• Rising domestic supplier and export

• League table laws.

The Backlash Scenario

• Rising UK domestic fees

• Demand exceeds supply

• Value for money concerns

• Domestic HEIs increase quality supply

• Governments concerned at skill loss

• Perception that non UK students favoured for financial reasons

• Foreign students object to ghettoes

New Competition• Competition from HE in emerging countries will grow – China and

India might become major first providers of transnational education.

• Student mobility to OECD countries becomes increasingly elitist.

• Slower growth in cross border mobility of students to OECD countries but increased mobility of academic staff, programmes and providers.

• Trade agreements play an important role in regulating transnational higher education.

• It become increasingly difficult for Western governments to regulate their HE systems as they become increasingly independent of state funding.

Stuck in the Snowdrift

I’ve seen the past and it worked!

• National Development Programme in Computer assisted learning (1973 – 77)

• Manpower Services commission ‘Tech’ project (1980s)

• Development of European Learning Through Technological Advance (DELTA 1988 - 2000)

I’ve seen the past and it worked!

Al Bork

David MerrillMarvin Minsky

Seymour Papert

Patrick Suppes

Donald NormanB.F.Skinner

‘Fanatics are always followed by fools, of which there is an inexhaustible supply.’

John D. Clarke

Clarke's Prediction About Fanatics!

Breaking free

The Pressures of the Present

• Technology

• Expectations

• Efficiency

• Exigency

• Economics

I’ve seen the future and it works!

www.obhe.ac.uk

An Unscheduled Stop

Safe Arrival

Developing competitive advantage

Isolation, uncoordinated, minimal data, no impact assessment

Integration, coordination, data, evaluation

Nar

row

/ u

ncle

ar a

gend

a

Integrated d

evelopment / com

mercial agenda

Route to competitive Advantage

Majority of UK provision still here.

Market Centred Approach

Rights

Management

Inter-

operability

Quality Assurance &

Research

University

CollaborationNational Staff Development

Student Services, Customer Service

Centre

Government

& European

Strategy

Strategic Approach

Co-ordination

Use the little grey cells !

Time for revolution

• This is not change, it is paradigm shift.• T.S. Kuhn has shown that when scientific

paradigms can no longer support the evidence a revolution takes place.

• Revolutions are slow to build but then are swift and savage.

• Strength alone is not enough - teamwork and knowledge of the terrain is paramount.

• Only the bold and fleet of foot will survive.

Every revolutionary idea passes through three stages of reaction:

– 1. It is completely impossible. Don't waste my time. – 2. It is possible, but not worth doing. – 3. I said it was a good idea all along.

Arthur C. Clarke

Clark’s Fourth Law

Fear of the future

Failures of imaginationFailures of courage

Arthur C. Clarke

Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern Man

END