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Multiple Regression 1
Sociology 5811 Lecture 22
Copyright © 2005 by Evan Schofer
Do not copy or distribute without permission
Announcements
• None!
Multiple Regression
• Question: What if a dependent variable is affected by more than one independent variable?
• Strategy #1: Do separate bivariate regressions– One regression for each independent variable
• This yields separate slope estimates for each independent variable– Bivariate slope estimates implicitly assume that
neither independent variable mediates the other– In reality, there might be no effect of family wealth
over and above education
Multiple Regression
Coefficientsa
35.608 1.290 27.611 .000
2.075 .446 .122 4.652 .000
(Constant)
RS FAMILY INCOMEWHEN 16 YRS OLD
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1970)a.
Coefficientsa
9.417 1.421 6.625 .000
2.488 .108 .520 23.056 .000
(Constant)
HIGHEST YEAR OFSCHOOL COMPLETED
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1970)a.
• Job Prestige: Two separate regression models
Both variables have positive, significant slopes
Multiple Regression
• Idea #2: Use Multiple Regression
• Multiple regression can examine “partial” relationships– Partial = Relationships after the effects of other
variables have been “controlled” (taken into account)
• This lets you determine the effects of variables “over and above” other variables– And shows the relative impact of different factors on
a dependent variable
• And, you can use several independent variables to improve your predictions of the dependent var
Coefficientsa
8.977 1.629 5.512 .000
2.487 .111 .520 22.403 .000
.178 .394 .011 .453 .651
(Constant)
HIGHEST YEAR OFSCHOOL COMPLETED
RS FAMILY INCOMEWHEN 16 YRS OLD
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1970)a.
Multiple Regression
• Job Prestige: 2 variable multiple regression
Education slope is basically unchanged
Family Income slope decreases compared to bivariate analysis
(bivariate: b = 2.07) And, outcome of hypothesis
test changes – t < 1.96
Multiple Regression• Ex: Job Prestige: 2 variable multiple regression• 1. Education has a large slope effect controlling
for (i.e. “over and above”) family income• 2. Family income does not have much effect
controlling for education• Despite a strong bivariate relationship
• Possible interpretations: • Family income may lead to education, but education is the
critical predictor of job prestige• Or, family income is wholly unrelated to job prestige… but
is coincidentally correlated with a variable that is (education), which generated a spurious “effect”.
The Multiple Regression Model
• A two-independent variable regression model:
iiii eXbXbaY 2211
• Note: There are now two X variables
• And a slope (b) is estimated for each one
• The full multiple regression model is:
ikikiii eXbXbXbaY 2211
• For k independent variables
Multiple Regression: Slopes
• Regression slope for the two variable case:
21
21
2121
11 XX
XXYXYX
X
Y
r
rrr
s
sb
• b1 = slope for X1 – controlling for the other independent variable X2
• b2 is computed symmetrically. Swap X1s, X2s
• Compare to bivariate slope: YXX
YYX r
s
sb
Multiple Regression Slopes
• Let’s look more closely at the formulas:
21
21
2121
11 XX
XXYXYX
X
Y
r
rrr
s
sb
• What happens to b1 if X1 and X2 are totally uncorrelated?
• Answer: The formula reduces to the bivariate
• What if X1 and X2 are correlated with each other AND X2 is more correlated with Y than X1?
• Answer: b1 gets smaller (compared to bivariate)
YXX
YYX r
s
sbversus
Regression Slopes
• So, if two variables (X1, X2) are correlated and both predict Y:
• The X variable that is more correlated with Y will have a higher slope in multivariate regression– The slope of the less-correlated variable will shrink
• Thus, slopes for each variable are adjusted to how well the other variable predicts Y– It is the slope “controlling” for other variables
Multiple Regression Slopes
• One last thing to keep in mind…
21
21
2121
11 XX
XXYXYX
X
Y
r
rrr
s
sb
• What happens to b1 if X1 and X2 are almost perfectly correlated?
• Answer: The denominator approaches Zero
• The slope “blows up”, approaching infinity
• Highly correlated independent variables can cause trouble for regression models… watch out
YXX
YYX r
s
sbversus
Interpreting Results
• (Over)Simplified rules for interpretation– Assumes good sample, measures, models, etc.
• Multivariate regression with two variables: A, B
• If slopes of A, B are the same as bivariate, then each has an independent effect
• If A remains large, B shrinks to zero we typically conclude that effect of B was spurious, or operates through A
• If both A and B shrink a little, each has an effect, but some overlap or mediation is occurring
Interpreting Multivariate Results
• Things to watch out for:
• 1. Remember: Correlation is not causation– Ability to “control” for many variables can help detect
spurious relationships… but it isn’t perfect.– Be aware that other (omitted) variables may be
affecting your model. Don’t over-interpret results.
• 2. Reverse causality– Many sociological processes involve bi-directional
causality. Regression slopes (and correlations) do not identify which variable “causes” the other.
• Ex: self-esteem and test scores.
Standardized Regression Coefficients
• Regression slopes reflect the units of the independent variables
• Question: How do you compare how “strong” the effects of two variables if they have totally different units?
• Example: Education, family wealth, job prestige– Education measured in years, b = 2.5– Family wealth measured on 1-5 scale, b = .18– Which is a “bigger” effect? Units aren’t comparable!
• Answer: Create “standardized” coefficients
Standardized Regression Coefficients
• Standardized Coefficients– Also called “Betas” or Beta Weights”– Symbol: Greek b with asterisk: * – Equivalent to Z-scoring (standardizing) all
independent variables before doing the regression
• Formula of coeficient for Xj:j
Y
X
j bs
sj
*
• Result: The unit is standard deviations
• Betas: Indicates the effect a 1 standard deviation change in Xj on Y
Standardized Regression Coefficients
• Ex: Education, family income, and job prestige:Coefficientsa
8.977 1.629 5.512 .000
2.487 .111 .520 22.403 .000
.178 .394 .011 .453 .651
(Constant)
HIGHEST YEAR OFSCHOOL COMPLETED
RS FAMILY INCOMEWHEN 16 YRS OLD
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: RS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCORE (1970)a.
An increase of 1 standard deviation in Education results
in a .52 standard deviation increase in job prestige Betas give you a sense of
which variables “matter most”
What is the interpretation of the “family income” beta?
R-Square in Multiple Regression• Multivariate R-square is much like bivariate:
TOTAL
REGRESSION
SS
SSR 2
• But, SSregression is based on the multivariate regression
• The addition of new variables results in better prediction of Y, less error (e), higher R-square.
Model Summary
.522a .272 .271 12.41Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), INCOM16, EDUCa.
R-Square in Multiple Regression• Example:
• R-square of .272 indicates that education, parents wealth explain 27% of variance in job prestige
• “Adjusted R-square” is a more conservative, more accurate measure in multiple regression– Generally, you should report Adjusted R-square.
Dummy Variables
• Question: How can we incorporate nominal variables (e.g., race, gender) into regression?
• Option 1: Analyze each sub-group separately– Generates different slope, constant for each group
• Option 2: Dummy variables– “Dummy” = a dichotomous variables coded to
indicate the presence or absence of something– Absence coded as zero, presence coded as 1.
Dummy Variables
• Strategy: Create a separate dummy variable for all nominal categories
• Ex: Gender – make female & male variables– DFEMALE: coded as 1 for all women, zero for men– DMALE: coded as 1 for all men
• Next: Include all but one dummy variables into a multiple regression model
• If two dummies, include 1; If 5 dummies, include 4.
Dummy Variables
• Question: Why can’t you include DFEMALE and DMALE in the same regression model?
• Answer: They are perfectly correlated (negatively): r = -1– Result: Regression model “blows up”
• For any set of nominal categories, a full set of dummies contains redundant information– DMALE and DFEMALE contain same information– Dropping one removes redundant information.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation
• Consider the following regression equation:
iiii eDFEMALEbINCOMEbaY 21
• Question: What if the case is a male?
• Answer: DFEMALE is 0, so the entire term becomes zero.– Result: Males are modeled using the familiar
regression model: a + b1X + e.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation
• Consider the following regression equation:
iiii eDFEMALEbINCOMEbaY 21
• Question: What if the case is a female?
• Answer: DFEMALE is 1, so b2(1) stays in the equation (and is added to the constant)– Result: Females are modeled using a different
regression line: (a+b2) + b1X + e
– Thus, the coefficient of b2 reflects difference in the constant for women.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation
• Remember, a different constant generates a different line, either higher or lower– Variable: DFEMALE (women = 1, men = 0)– A positive coefficient (b) indicates that women are
consistently higher compared to men (on dep. var.)– A negative coefficient indicated women are lower
• Example: If DFEMALE coeff = 1.2:– “Women are on average 1.2 points higher than men”.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation• Visually: Women = blue, Men = red
INCOME
100000800006000040000200000
HA
PP
Y
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Overall slope for all data points
Note: Line for men, women have same slope… but one is
high other is lower. The constant differs!
If women=1, men=0: The constant (a) reflects
men only. Dummy coefficient (b) reflects
increase for women (relative to men)
Dummy Variables
• What if you want to compare more than 2 groups?
• Example: Race– Coded 1=white, 2=black, 3=other (like GSS)
• Make 3 dummy variables:– “DWHITE” is 1 for whites, 0 for everyone else– “DBLACK” is 1 for Af. Am., 0 for everyone else– “DOTHER” is 1 for “others”, 0 for everyone else
• Then, include two of the three variables in the multiple regression model.
Coefficientsa
9.666 1.672 5.780 .000
2.476 .111 .517 22.271 .000
6.282E-02 .397 .004 .158 .874
-2.666 1.117 -.055 -2.388 .017
1.114 1.777 .014 .627 .531
(Constant)
EDUC
INCOM16
DBLACK
DOTHER
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: PRESTIGEa.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation
• Ex: Job Prestige
• Negative coefficient for DBLACK indicates a lower level of job prestige compared to whites– T- and P-values indicate if difference is significant.
Dummy Variables: Interpretation
• Comments:
• 1. Dummy coefficients shouldn’t be called slopes– Referring to the “slope” of gender doesn’t make sense– Rather, it is the difference in the constant (or “level”)
• 2. The contrast is always with the nominal category that was left out of the equation– If DFEMALE is included, the contrast is with males– If DBLACK, DOTHER are included, coefficients
reflect difference in constant compared to whites.
Interaction Terms
• Question: What if you suspect that a variable has a totally different slope for two different sub-groups in your data?
• Example: Income and Happiness– Perhaps men are more materialistic -- an extra dollar
increases their happiness a lot– If women are less materialistic, each dollar has a
smaller effect on income (compared to men)
• Issue isn’t men = “more” or “less” than women– Rather, the slope of a variable (income) differs across
groups
Interaction Terms
• Issue isn’t men = “more” or “less” than women– Rather, the slope of a variable coefficient (for income)
differs across groups
• Again, we want to specify a different regression line for each group– We want lines with different slopes, not parallel lines
that are higher or lower.
Interaction Terms• Visually: Women = blue, Men = red
INCOME
100000800006000040000200000
HA
PP
Y
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Overall slope for all data points
Note: Here, the slope for men and women
differs.
The effect of income on happiness (X1 on Y)
varies with gender (X2). This is called an
“interaction effect”
Interaction Terms
• Interaction effects: Differences in the relationship (slope) between two variables for each category of a third variable
• Option #1: Analyze each group separately
• Option #2: Multiply the two variables of interest: (DFEMALE, INCOME) to create a new variable– Called: DFEMALE*INCOME– Add that variable to the multiple regression model.
Interaction Terms
• Consider the following regression equation:
iiii eINCDFEMbINCOMEbaY *21
• Question: What if the case is male?
• Answer: DFEMALE is 0, so b2(DFEM*INC) drops out of the equation– Result: Males are modeled using the ordinary
regression equation: a + b1X + e.
Interaction Terms
• Consider the following regression equation:
iiii eINCDFEMbINCOMEbaY *21
• Question: What if the case is male?
• Answer: DFEMALE is 1, so b2(DFEM*INC) becomes b2*INCOME, which is added to b1
– Result: Females are modeled using a different regression line: a + (b1+b2) X + e
– Thus, the coefficient of b2 reflects difference in the slope of INCOME for women.
Interaction Terms
• Interpreting interaction terms:
• A positive b for DFEMALE*INCOME indicates the slope for income is higher for women vs. men– A negative effect indicates the slope is lower– Size of coefficient indicates actual difference in slope
• Example: DFEMALE*INCOME. Observed b’s:– Income: b = .5– DFEMALE * INCOME: b = -.2
• Interpretation: Slope is .5 for men, .3 for women.
Interaction Terms
• Continuous variable can also interact
• Example: Effect of education and income on happiness– Perhaps highly educated people are less materialistic– As education increases, the slope between between
income and happiness would decrease
• Simply multiply Education and Income to create the interaction term “EDUCATION*INCOME”– And add it to the model
Interaction Terms
• How do you interpret continuous variable interactions?
• Example: EDUCATION*INCOME: Coefficient = 2.0
• Answer: For each unit change in education, the slope of income vs. happiness increases by 2– Note: coefficient is symmetrical: For each unit
change in income, education slope increases by 2– Dummy interactions result in slopes for each group– Continuous interactions result in many slopes
• Each category of education*income has a different slope.
Interaction Terms
• Comments:
• 1. If you make an interaction you should also include the component variables in the model:– A model with “DFEMALE * INCOME” should also
include DFEMALE and INCOME– There is some debate on this issue… but that is the
safest course of action
• 2. Sometimes interaction terms are highly correlated with its components
• Watch out for that.
Interaction Terms
• Question: Can you think of examples of two variables that might interact?
• Either from your final project? Or anything else?