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Results Preview 27 Apr 2016
1
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Muangthai Leasing PCL (MTLS)
Expect a new high
► 1Q16 net profit expected to increase 13.3% QoQ
and 49.9% YoY to Bt272mn.
► Keeping FY16 earnings estimate at Bt1.3bn, up
53.1% YoY.
► We maintain our BUY recommendation with a 2016
target price of Bt25.50.
1Q16 net profit expected to jump both QoQ and YoY
We expect MTLS’ 1Q16 net profit to surge 13.3% QoQ and
49.9% YoY to a new quarterly high of Bt272mn. The
outstanding growth will be mainly attributed to the company’s
ongoing aggressive branch expansion strategy. As of 1Q16,
its number of branches jumped to 1,145 from 940 at the end
of 2015. In addition, loans are expected to grow 10% YTD,
with growth from every segment, including its nano finance
and land title loans. In terms of cost, 1Q16 cost-to-income
ratio is estimated to be 53%, improving slightly from 53.4% in
4Q15.
Keeping FY16 estimate intact
We had a phone conversation with MTLS’ investor relations
department and were told that 1Q16 should be another bright
quarter. The company is confident it will achieve its expansion
target of 1,350 branches by the end of this year. Although the
current economic environment may raise concerns over
potential bad debt, the company believes this will be
manageable and its NPL ratio should remain low at below 1%
in 1Q16. We are maintaining our FY16 earnings estimate at
Bt1.3bn, up 53.1% YoY.
Maintain BUY recommendation
We maintain our BUY recommendation with a 2016 target
price of Bt25.50. Our target price is based on a prospective
PBV of 8.33x (Gordon Growth Model) and long-term ROE
forecast of 20%. MTLS believes that in addition to its
expansion strategy, its customer service would help to drive
solid earnings growth.
BUY
TP: Bt25.50 Closing price: Bt20.10
Upside/downside +26.9%
Sector Finance & Securities
Paid-up shares (shares mn) 2,120
Market capitalization (Bt mn) 42,612
Free float (%) 20.10
12-mth daily avg. turnover (Bt mn) 155.00
12-mth trading range (Bt) 22.10/
15.00
Major shareholders (%)
Mr. Chuchat Petaumpai 37.4
Mrs. Daonapa Petaumpai 34.0
Financial highlights
Source: SETSMART, AWS
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon,
License, No. 17923
Tel: 02 680 5041
Ms. Veeraya Rattanaworatip,
Assistant Analyst
2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Revenue (Btmn) 1,590 2,331 3,774 5,226
Net profit (Btmn) 544 825 1,263 1,748
EPS (Bt) 0.33 0.39 0.60 0.82
EPS growth (%) 49.6 16.6 53.1 38.4
P/E (x) 60.2 51.7 33.7 24.4
BVPS (Bt) 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6
P/BV (x) 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.6
DPS (Bt) 0.17 0.20 0.30 0.41
Div. yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.1
ROE (%) 15.5 15.3 20.8 24.8
2
Results Preview 27 Apr 2016
Please see disclaimer on last page
Figure 1: MTLS 1Q16 results preview
Unit: Btmn 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16F %QoQ %YoY 2015 2016F %YoY
Net-interest income 393 620 678 9.4% 72.3% 1,998 3,390 69.7%
Non-interest income 82 88 92 5.2% 12.6% 334 384 15.0%
Net operating income 475 707 770 8.9% 62.0% 2,331 3,774 61.9%
Non-interest expense 269 378 408 8.0% 51.5% 1,275 2,157 69.2%
Pre-provision profit 206 330 362 9.8% 75.8% 1,056 1,616 53.0%
Provision expense (reversal)
-21 28 22 -22.9% 202.6% 25 37 50.0%
Pre-tax profit 227 301 340 12.9% 49.6% 1,032 1,579 53.1%
Net Profit 181 240 272 13.3% 49.9% 825 1,263 53.1%
EPS (Bt)* 0.09 0.11 0.13 14.9% 42.5% 0.39 0.60 53.8%
Source: Company data, AWS
CG Report
3
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Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made
pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a
company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for
Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be
accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation
and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities
Company Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such
survey result.
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
CG Report
4
Please see disclaimer on last page
ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG
ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO
ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO
ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA
ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG
ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP
ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน
3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค
ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ
Contact
5
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s
Branch Address Phone Fax
Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan
Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd., Silom,
Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1
Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klong
Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328
Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr., Room
No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin, Bangkoknoi,
Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
02-884-7367
Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr., Room
2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2300 02-835-3014
Chaengwattana 2
9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,
Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi
11120
02-119-2388 02-119-2399
Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad Road,
Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang District, Rayong
Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi 20000 038-053-858 038-784-090
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-District,
Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591