MTR of the First National Development

Plan

A Presentation at the Evaluation Week Meeting

By Patrick B. Birungi

5/28/2014 1

Outline

Background

Objectives and Methodology

Mid-Term Review - Progress, Challenges and

recommendations

Conclusion and Way Foward

5/28/2014 2

Background

• GoU adopted the Comprehensive National

Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) in

2007

• The MTR is enshrined in the CNDPF

• In line with CNDPF, the Uganda Vision 2040 was

produced.

• The Vision sets out the country’s long-term goal

of “A Transformed Ugandan Society from a

Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country

within 30 years”.

5/28/2014

3

Background Cont’d

• The Vision revolves around harnessing the abundant opportunities by strengthening the fundamentals.

Opportunities

• Agriculture, Tourism, Minerals, Industrialisation, Fresh Water bodies, Oil and gas, ICT Business, Abundant labour force, Geographical location and trade

Fundamentals

• Infrastructure for Energy, Transport, Water, ICT, and Oil and Gas; STEI, Land Use and Management, Urbanization, Human Capital Dev’t, Peace, Security and Defence etc)

• To operationalise the Vision, NDPI was produced and Mid-term review was done and is in the final year of implementation

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NDP1 MTR OBJECTIVE

Review the progress made in the first half

of the NDP Implementation

Make recommendations to improve

implementation of NDPI over its remaining

period

Inform preparation of the next NDP

2015/16 – 2019/20 (NDPII)

Overview of MTR Methodology

Desk review of government reports and

reports of Non-State Actors

Analysis of existing data

Fieldwork data collection from 3 districts

per region of Uganda (New, Old,

traditional, rural and urban

Methodology cont…

Meetings held with political and technical

heads of sectors and chairmen of key

committees of Parliament

Focus Group Discussion with non-state

actors (PSFU, UMA, NGO Forum, etc)

Meetings with Development Partners

Approach to the MTR

The review was based on six thematic

areas determined by the local context and

environment within which the NDPI is

being implemented.

NDP MTR Themes

The NDP MTR Themes are:

Policy and Strategic Direction

Institutional Framework

Results Framework

Political Economy

Economic Management

Development Partnership

Crosscutting studies undertaken to

inform MTR

Social Protection

Children

Environment

Gender

Human Rights

Democracy & Political Governance

PROGRESS ON NDPI

IMPLEMENTATION – MID-

TERM REVIEW

5/28

/201

4

11

Focus of NDPI

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Socio-Economic Transformation

Increasing household incomes and

promoting equity

Enhancing the availability and quality of gainful employment

Improving stock and quality of economic

infrastructure

Increasing access to quality social services

Promoting science, technology, innovation

and ICT to enhance competitiveness

Enhancing human capital development

Strengthening good governance, defence

and security

Promoting sustainable population and the

use of environmental and natural resources

EmploymentGrowth

3 Thematic Components

8 Objectives

7 Key Binding Constraints / Key Result Areas

Inadequate physical infrastructure

Inadequate supply and limited access to

critical production inputs

Low application of science and technology

Gender issues, negative attitudes, mind-set, cultural

practices, perceptions

Inadequate quantity and quality of human

resources

Inadequate finances and financial services

Weak public sector management and

administration

NDP has instilled the culture and

discipline of strategic planning and

budgeting

The NDP is informing all other planning

processes for Development

PROGRESS: Key Outcomes

PROGRESS: Selected Results

5.1

1.7

4.5 5.8

6.9 7.2 6.4

10.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Total GDP Growth Rate

Agriculture Sector Growth

Industry Sector Growth

Services Sector

Gro

wth

Rate

(p

erc

en

t)

Sector

Average (Actual , 2010/11-2012/13) Target

Nominal GDP increased from UGX 39,086b in

2010/11 to UGX 54,688b in 2012/13.

Growth across all sectors was

below target largely due to:

Poor agricultural production and

productivity

Global economic downturn

Slow implementation of NDP projects

for unlocking binding constraints

Tight Monetary policy at the end of

2011/12

PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)

Poverty declined from 24.5 per cent in

2009/10 to 19.8 per cent in 2012/13

representing about 7.7m people

Income inequality has remained high (Gini-

coefficient 0.43)

Income per capita increased from USD 506 to

about 600 in the Financial Year 2012/13 but

below the targeted USD 718

PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)

PROGRESS: Selected Results

(cont…)

15

.6

17

.2

16

.8

19

.9

21

.1

10

.1

10

.2

9.5

9.1

9.2

509 541

511

583 596

329 319 287

266 260

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

20

08

/9

20

09

/10

2010/1

1

2011/1

2

20

12

/13

Pe

rca

pit

a G

DP

(U

S $

)

GD

P (

US

$ B

n)

GDP Current Market Prices (US$ Bn) GDP Constant 2002 Prices (US$ Bn)

GDP Per Capita (Nominal)-US$ GDP Per Capita (Real)-US$

PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)

Life expectancy is 54 years ahead of the

NDP target of 51.3 years

Infant Mortality Rate reduced from 76 to

54 deaths per 1,000 live births

Maternal Mortality Rate increased to 438

(2011 UDHS) from 418 (2006 UDHS)

Literacy rate stands at 71% slightly below

NDP target of 76.9%

5/28/2014 18

PROGRESS: Selected Results

(cont…) Access to safe water slightly decreased from

74% in 2009/10 to 73% in 2012/13

Volume of paved roads increased from 4% to

16%, significantly ahead of NDP target (455km

of paved roads added , leaving a deficit of

645km).

Freight cargo by rail has also sig. increased

from 3.5% to 10%

Total energy capacity increased from 628

(2010/11) to 835 megawatts (2012/13), while

consumption increased from 60 to 64 kWh per

capita 19

Progress on the core projects There has been mixed progress on

implementation of these projects

Good progress has been made on the following:

Construction of five irrigation systems

Refinery development

Karuma HEP project (600MW)

Ayago HEP project

Isimba HEP Project (140MW

Slow Progress on standard gauge railway;

GMKA; science and technology parks; and ICT

business parks

KEY IMPLEMENTATION

CHALLENGES - MTR

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Gap between NDP sector financial

Figure 1: Comparison of GoU on Budget sector allocations for

MoFPED led MTEF and NDP allocations and MoFPED led MTEF

Limited alignment of NDP and

Budget Systems

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Agriculture

Land, Housing & Urban Dev.

Energy & Mineral Dev.

Works & Transport

Info. & Comms. Technology

Tourism, Trade & Industry

Education

Health

Water & Environment

Social Development

Security

Justice, Law & Order

Public Sector Management

Accountability

Legislature

Public Administration

Percentage Allocations

NDP

MTEF

Limited alignment of NDP and

Budget Systems (Cont…)

Misalignment between the NDP

priorities and Projects that appear in

the PIP

Limited alignment between SDPs,

LGDPs, Annual Plans and the NDP

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Limited Alignment - Recommendations

Need to synchronise all the major planning

and financing mechanisms

Need to ensure that all expenditure

management and reporting systems i.e.

OBT and GAPR are aligned to the planning

system

Need for an annual and 5-year Certificate Of

Compliance

5/28/2014 24

Slow development of new

innovative financing

instruments

Declining development

assistance

High cost of financing

Limited Financing of NDP

Domestic revenue is at 13.1 percent of GDP and projected

to increase to 14.2 per cent in 2014/15 but remains below

the target of 15.1 per cent.

Financing of the NDP

Financing of the NDP -

Recommendations

• Fast track domestic resource

mobilisation

• Fast track approval of Public-

Private Partnership Bill

• Fast track alternative financing

mechanisms

• Lower the cost of accessing capital

5/28/2014 27

Ineffective and unresponsive public

service system

Constrained access to land for

both private and public

development projects.

Corruption

Delays in procurement procedure

Weak Public Sector Management

Weak Public Sector Management -

Recommendations

• Strengthen Public Service Reforms

• Undertake Land Reforms to facilitate

access to land for infrastructure

investments

• Establish a National Value system and

national rallying ideology

• Review the procurement law to facilitate

faster procurement

5/28/2014 29

Focus and priority setting

There was limited focus and poor

sequencing of interventions

Policy direction was too broad and

lacked focus

Absence of an institutional

framework for the coordination of

national and cross-cutting policies

and strategies 5/28/2014

30

Focus and priority setting-

Recommendations

Set priorities of not more than six

priority strategic development objectives

that are outcome focused and cut

across multiple sectors

Focus strategic direction towards Quasi-market approach

Promoting Value addtion for increased export earnings and

employment

Enhance Uganda’s competitiveness

Rule of law, peace and security

5/28/2014 31

Sub-National Service Delivery

challenges

Low capacity for local

Governments to deliver services

due to

Limited and unreliable financial

resources from the Centre

Limited revenue generation capacity

Limited staff capacity

Absence of sufficient guidance from the

centre to local governments 5/28/2014

32

Strategic Direction of NDPII

• The MTR of NDPI revealed and recommended

the need for prioritisation of interventions so as to

maximise resource utilisation.

• NDPII’s strategic Direction is based on prioritising

key sectors with a greater multiplier effect that can

propel UG to middle-income status in the next 5

years.

• NDPII’s strategic direction is echoed in the Plan’s

Theme, Objectives and Priorities as illustrated in

the Prioritisation Framework

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Conclusion

NDP2 is fully guided by the MTR Recommendations

Major issues/concerns raised are being addressed

MTR once well done would have an influence on future

policy

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For God and my Country

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