MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and Disaster Management

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MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and

Disaster Management Processes and

Climate Change Implications

Orlin NIKOLOVCOL BGR – AF

Chief of Capabilities Branch CMDR COE

Input Data

Database

Operator

Interface

Disaster Mathematical

Models EngineDisaster Model

Results to HLA object

Transformer

Federation

Simulation 1

1 2 3

Simulation 2

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Agenda

1. Disasters and CCI

2. M&S support for CMD processes and CCI

3. Conceptual model and campaign overview

4. LOE 1 Demo-Experiment MSG-147

NATO OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS

1. Disaster Risk Management as part of

the planning process

Risk Assessment

Preventing/Mitigating Measures

2. Disaster Management as part of NATO

military operation

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Compiling the NATO Exercise Management

Environment *

13/06/2017 * JFTC: LTC Wolfhard Schmidt 5

Dashboard

JEMM

EXCON COP

MEL/MIL

EXercise Information Service (EXIS)

Units – Holdings – Story Lines – Events – Shared Layers - Plans

Web-Service: SOAP - REST

EXIS

Mgmt

Service

EXCON Business Applications

COP - SA

Simulation

C2 – ISR

Interoperability

Link-16, NFFI, ICC Update,

Formatted messages

Training

Objectives

TOMM

Setting

JEST

Evaluation

EEPROM

Disasters & Climate Change Implications

6*The human cost of weather related disasters –

Centre of research of epidemiology of disasters (CRED)

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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis platform

for CMDP and Climate Change Implications (M&S Support for CMDR Processes and CCI)

The aim of the project is to develop a technical architecture capable of

supporting and conducting CDM exercises and analysis.

It should be established with several crisis management and disaster response

tools and simulations that are supported by NATO and enable non-military type

operations.

The software environment should enable to

provide:

- distributed environment including HLA and

DIS

- automated data collection,

- engine for modeling with defined triggers,

- C2 logic and SOPs implementation;

- a dynamically generated plan for

Crisis/Disaster Response,

- prognosticate and Climate Change analyses

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Decision Making Support and Data Analysis

platform for CMDR and Climate Change

The expected benefits are:

• Reducing of human influence over data collection and

modifying process,

• Crisis/Disaster evolution trend forecast, synthesizing and

usage of best practices, experience and knowledge

related with specific system conditions,

• Fast and accurate calculations for support of decision

makers,

• Conducting CMDR exercise, experiments, tests,

evaluation and analysis in proper close to reality

environment,

• Prognosticate and evaluation of disasters in support of

decision makers,

• Evaluation of Climate Change on Military activities.

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The timeline would be linked to the operational support for key events in

the crisis management and disaster response community (NATO CMX,

EADRCC exercises, SEESIM, VIKING, other) as the major initial

operational capability (IOC) milestone.

Phase 1 – twelve (12) months in length and result in the development and approval of the

Master Plan to guide and direct this project.

Phase 2 – twelve (12) months is length and result in the initial operational capability (IOC).

Planning experimentation, testing and training for CMXs would be conducted as well during

this phase.

Phase 3 – twelve (12) months is length and result successful support and execution of CM

exercises and analysis efforts as part of the operational support of the crisis management

and disaster response technical platform.

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platform for CDMP and Climate Change Implications

TOPICS TO BE COVERED:

• Database for storage and management of the information and data related with crisis

and disasters.

• Capability for determination of players, objects, infrastructures, systems. Should be

defined: location, form, vulnerability, relations with other objects/systems. Capability for

data import from different sources like GEO information.

• Capability for implementation of control logic (command and control system, decision

making and supporting system)

• Capabilities for modeling and simulation of crisis and disaster events

Module for modeling environment parameters under defined initial conditions

Engine for model generation based on statistical data

Replay the events using the stored information into the database.

• Capability for education and training

• Artificial intellect for simulating actions of individual or collective players

• Report generating module for the environmental parameters

• Integration with other used in NATO software tools.

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LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”20-24 March 2017, Sofia, Bulgaria

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LOE 1 „Demo-Experiment” was the first attempt to test existing

simulation tools, whether one or more tools offer the required

features to simulate natural and man-made disasters.

The concept describes three different cases:

- Before a NATO military operation: Risk assessment before the

operation, Risk preparedness and prevention - Disaster Risk

Management as a contribution to the military planning process;

- During a NATO military operation: Disaster analysis when a

disaster occurs and impact on military activities, Response

Measures – Disaster Consequence Management as a short-

term support of reactive military decision-making;

- Generally: Military support to the civilian authorities in case of

disaster.

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Aim:

To demonstrate part of the technical capabilities required to support decision-making

process.

Objectives

To demonstrate the technical capabilities disregarding the accuracy of the chosen

mathematical models.

To find out the necessary input data for each disaster mathematical model and to

analyse the requirements for development of the input database schema.

To demonstrate creation of federation of simulations and disaster mathematical

module.

To test transferring of data between the disaster mathematical module and the

federates.

To observe the reports computed by the simulations.

To test the replacement of one mathematical model with another (dealing with the

same disaster) and observing the influence on the simulation reports.

To consider interoperability (formats) with C2-Systems:

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES.LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”

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COMPONENTS OF THE EXPERIMENTLOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”

Different test cases were prepared in advance. The variables were:

- Input Data (Disaster Type etc.) [1];

- Modelling applications [2];

- Implementation into models [2];

- Simulation Tools [3];

- Transfer into C2 systems [4].

Input Data

Database

Operator

Interface

Disaster

Mathematical

Models Engine

Disaster Model

Results to HLA

object Transformer

Federation

Simulation 1

1 2 3

Simulation 2

4

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Findings and Results LOE 1 “Demo-Experiment MSG-147”

During the experiment basically three phases

were observed:

- Capability presentations of CMDR COE

(Federation model, user front end);

- Companies’ presentations;

- Attempt to federate (Sword / Hazard Prediction

Assessment Capability (HPAC), Sword / Joint

Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS)).

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The analysis team members observed and collected the

needed information from:

ST- CRISOM product related presentation was provided by the University of Genoa.

It is mainly a tool for prediction and analysis, primarily in the civilian domain

MASA SWORD is a MASA Group product which was presented by CMDR COE for

this particular experiment. It is an M&S software, automated, aggregated

constructive simulation, designed to improve training for both military commanders

and crisis management staff in the emergency preparedness

Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) 6.3 + supporting tolls (HPAC,

Geological Exploration and Development Information System (GEDIS), HHS Batch)

VBS3 is a training and simulation system at tactical level, presented by CMDR COE

EMERSIM is a scenario simulation tool for multiagency crisis management

developed by TEAMNET

EDMSIM is a C4I tool dedicated to Emergency & Disaster management

construction simulation

MILSIM is another C4I tool, very similar to EDMSIM but mostly military oriented with

following differences

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The analysis team members observed and collected the

needed information from:

COBRA is a DYNAMIC / CEMAC tool design mostly for Exercise and

Training support (not a modelling and simulation tool)

KORA is a LINUX based simulation system developed by IABG

During the experiment, the following applications and tools

(provided by the CMDR CoE) were used:

- Pitch RTI:

- Pitch Google Earth Adapter;

- MASA SWORD;

- VBS3

- JCATS.

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Masa Sword Replay

without MSG 147 Disaster Module

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Masa Sword Replay

with MSG 147 Disaster Module

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Masa Sword impacts

With/without MSG 147 Disaster Module

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General results:

• All considered Tools were very powerful.

• Tools are not comparable, because they are designed for

different purposes.

• The HLA standard and its RTI implementation exist for

many years. Despite the fact, there are still problems in

correct federation establishment connecting several

simulations.

• The tools EDMSIM / MILSIM, EMERSIM, COBRA are

based on modern web-based services, perfectly

functioning together, because they need open standard

metadata (XML, EDXL…).

• Only one real federation has been successfully tested:

Sword / MSG-147 Disaster Module.


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Conclusions.

a. The experiment was conducted in the way it was planned and

achieved its goals.

b. The Tools provided by Academia and companies didn't federate

(with small exceptions).

c. There were no common FOM available.

d. There is a need to concentrate on definition of Disaster FOM, in

order to standardize the data exchange of disaster events in

federation. In order to run federations connecting modern and

powerful tools, CMDR COE should concentrate on gaining this

capability.

e. Interesting finding for the concept: LoA, 4 perspectives (in-house

expertise, training, support for decision-makers, Reach-back),

strategic decision on priorities for CMDR COE.

f. Problem: generation difference of tools.


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Recommendations.

a. Repeat experiment with other tools offered to CMDR

COE/MSG-147.

b. In order to achieve the project aim – Risk/Disaster

Management and decision-making support – MSG-147

has to define an extension to deal with Disaster modelling

(e.g., as part of NETN FOM). The further implementation

is a responsibility of the companies from the M&S

industry.

c. Regular external support concerning programming should

be provided.

d. For the concept: Define finer MoP by formulating criteria

at next Workshop, e.g. ITEC Rotterdam.

e. For CMDR COE: Prioritise the perspectives of MSG-147

(in-house expertise, training, D-M-support, Reach-back).


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Existing civilian modelling and simulation tools

and instruments – variety of solutions.

The GAP

There is not existing app implementing the military

objects/subjects concept, doctrines, behavior,

characteristics and parameters from one side and the

disaster impact over them on the other.

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Existing military oriented modelling and

simulation tools and instruments – variety of

solutions.

The GAP

There is not existing Disaster Federation Object

Model as part of NETN FOM.

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WAY AHEAD

- Kick off meeting: 17-18 March 2016, Sofia, Bulgaria

- 2nd meeting: 2-3 June 2016 Sofia, Bulgaria

- 3rd meeting: 19-20 September 2016, (CAX forum)

- 4th meeting: 28-30 November 2016, (I/ITSEC)

- 5th meeting: February 2017 Rome

- 6th meeting: 20-24 March 2017 LOE demonstration (Sofia)

- 7th meeting: 19 May 2017 ITEC

- 8th meeting IPC LOE 2 29-31 May Sofia 2017

- 9th meeting CAX 2017 September 2017 TBD

- 10th meeting MPC LOE1A October 16-20 Bydgoszc JFTC

- 11th meeting I/ITSEC 17 November Orlando, USA

- 12th meeting FPC LOE 2 February 2018 Chech Republic

- Webex meetings: Every month

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MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and

Disaster Management Processes and

Climate Change Implications

ORLIN NIKOLOV |COL (OF-5), BGR-AF

CMDR COE Chief of Capabilities Branch

Office: +359 2 92 24705

[email protected]

Documents

MSG 147 M&S support for Crisis and Disaster Management