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Polish Beef Market
MR. JERZY WIERZBICKI, PRESIDENT, POLISH BEEF ASSOCIATION POLAND
Verona May 13th 2015
The beef market conditions in Poland
Conference on the future prospects of beef
production in Europe taking into account the
developments on the world market of beef and of
the new CAP which this year start to operate.
I would like to present the beef market conditions in
Poland.
Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef
2. Production systems of beef cattle farms
3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into
account the new CAP
4. Forecasts of beef production and export
potential
2.030
1.875
1.560
1.141
535
385
355
350
330
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500
Brazil
India
Australia
United States
New Zealand
Uruguay
Canada
Paraguay
Poland
Exports (1000 MT CWE) 2014
Exports (1000 MT CWE)
http://www.indexmundi.com/
Low prices for young bulls carcasses(R3)
Fammu/FAPA
Germany
EU avg
France
Poland
AR3 – PL Price v EU Price
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PL UE %
EUR/100 kg mps2012 2013 2014
%
D O3 – PL Price v EU Price
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PL UE %
EUR/100 kg mps %2012 2013 2014
E R3 – PL Price v EU Price
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PL UE %
EUR/100 kg mps %2012 2013 2014
Beef and Veal Production
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Veal 46 46 36 37 36,7 36,3 39,3 37 33,2 28,1 24,5 19,9 19,3
Cattle 273 309 319 313 363,1 369 377,5 386,8 389,1 384,5 369,5 372,7 418
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Cattle Veal
MRiRW, 2015
Slaughter in 15 biggestslaughterhouses
Export – chilled beef
IT
DE
NL
ES
UK
Other
Cattle & calves import export
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Export
Veal Cattle
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Import
Veal Cattle
Balance of Cattle and veal import export
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Veal Cattle
Beef consumption in Poland 1998-2013
7,9
7,1
5,6
5,2
5,8
5,3
3,9
4,5
4,03,8
3,63,4
2,1
1,8
1,5 1,6
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Meat consumption in Poland 1985-2013
30,0
34,235,2
36,437,7 37,6
42,2 42,440,8
37,539,4
40,4
35,7
38,0
40,039,0 38,6 39,2
41,2
39,1 39,0
41,4
43,642,7 42,4 42,5 42,5
39,2
35,5
16,2 16,9 16,7 17,416,3 16,4 15,7
12,711,5
9,1 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 7,97,1
5,6 5,2 5,8 5,33,9 4,5 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4
2,1 1,8 1,5
7,1 7,6 8,1 8,1 8,47,6 8,2
9,1 9,510,7 10,3 10,3
12,5 13,214,0 14,7
17,2
19,8 19,7
22,223,4 23,7 24,0 24,1 24,0 24,5 25,2
26,127,3
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pork Beef Poultry
Beef consumption in selectedcountries
62,4
52,8
39,0
36,5
33,6
3,5
4,2
1,7
1,5
64,3
52,8
38,8
35,5
34,5
5,0
4,6
1,8
1,6
- 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0
Argentina
Uruguay
Brazil
United States
Australia
Philippines
China
India
Poland
Per capita 2014 Per capita 2013
Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef
2. Production systems of beef cattle farms
3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into
account the new CAP
4. Forecasts of beef production and export
potential
Production systems – bulls, no stears
Bulls
51%Cows
34%
Heifers
16%Stears
0%
confirmationdairy breeds, beef breeds and crosses
E
1%U
7%
R
33%
O
54%
P
5%
Production systems
1. Intensive Production
2. Extensive Production
3. Mixed-farming system
4. Organic Production
Production systems:mixed-farming system
1. Feed is based on grass silage, corn silage plus seed (wheat, barley, oat, corn)
2. Cattles are in buildings in groups
3. Slaughter age: 18-24
Warm Carcass Weight - bulls [A] –333,6kg
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
291,3
307,6
318,7
325,4
320,4
323,6
335,8
320,7
328,9
335,2333,6
Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef
2. Production systems of beef cattle farms
3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into
account the new CAP
4. Forecasts of beef production and export
potential
Profitability of beef cattle farms
1. Concentration of production
2. Specialization
3. Single Payment Scheme is important
Profitability of beef cattle farms
Single Payment Scheme - support for small farms
1. Young bulls, steers and heifers - 70 EUR/szt. up to 30 animals
2. Cows 70 EUR/szt. Up to 30 animals
Polish Beef Market1. Production, imports and exports of beef
2. Production systems of beef cattle farms
3. Profitability of beef cattle farms taking into
account the new CAP
4. Forecasts of beef production and export
potential
Forecasts of beef production and export potential
1. Polish beef consumption will slowly grow
2. Polish beef production will slowly grow
3. Poland will become calve importer netto in 2015 or 2016
4. Polish beef export will slowly grow