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MOZAMBIQUE mVAM Bulletin #3: October 2016
Food prices continue to rise
Key points:
Prices for most basic foods remained relatively high in October
Maize grain prices rose by 14 percent in Beira (Sofala) compared to
September
Prices have fallen slightly for imported rice, cow peas and cooking oil in
Tete province
Imported goods such as rice and cooking oil are more expensive in
Maputo province than in other areas
Stock shortages are forecast because of a lack of resources for restocking
and stock unavailability at central markets.
WFP/David Orr
Food Security Outlook
Food prices in Mozambique are likely to be affected by the economic crisis and the
reduced productivity of the last cropping season, among other shocks. Heading
towards the first quarter of 2017 – which is the lean season – the prices of staples
and essential imports will probably increase, at least up until the next harvest in
March (source: FEWS NET Outlook 2016). The successful implementation of in-kind
and cash-based transfers will serve as a buffer for many households, closing the
hunger gap until the next harvest period. The significant depreciation of the local
currency against the US dollar will continue to impede the flow of commercial food
imports. The depreciation is reflected in the sharp increases in the prices of food and
non-food items.
Methodology
The October survey was conducted using live calls for a sample of 79
traders across 20 districts in the provinces of Gaza and Tete. This
round, the survey covered more markets: one new market in Maputo
(Magude) and two new markets in Manica (Chitope and Machaze). The
questions focused on the prices of basic foods such as maize grain,
maize meal, rice and cooking oil with an open-ended question to gauge
traders’ perception of the food security situation in their areas. Phone
surveys contain inherent response biases; therefore, the bulletin
reports patterns and trends rather than precise estimates.
WFP/ Riccardo Franco
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mVAM Bulletin #3: October 2016
Maize grain prices increase in Gaza
Most basic foods were relatively expensive in October in most areas,
surpassing levels observed in September (Tables 1 and 2). Maize grain prices
rose by 1.48 percent in Gaza and by 6.56 percent in Tete: the highest increase
of 14.29 percent was in Sofala province. However, in Tete there were small
decreases in the prices of imported rice (-0.52%), cow peas (-4.48%) and
cooking oil (-0.73%). The price decreases in Tete could be a result of surplus
food coming in from Zambia. Food prices are higher in rural markets than in
urban ones except for maize. Maize is slightly more expensive in urban
markets, perhaps because of the distance from the rural source markets.
MOZAMBIQUE
Table 2: Percentage change in food prices
1 KG 1 KG 1 KG 1 KG 1 Litre
Commodity Maize Maize meal
Imported rice
Cow peas
Cooking oil
October prices by province
Gaza 28.53 40.96 49.8 78.33 121.48
Tete 24.09 57.52 46.96 75.42 127.92
Sofala 26
Maputo 28.52 42.23 50.8 90 129
Manica
38.67 42.95
116.25
% change in food prices
Province Food
commodity Price (Aug)
Price (Sept)
Price (Oct)
% change (Aug to
Sep)
% change (Sep to
Oct)
Gaza
Maize 28.27 28.11 28.53 -0.57 1.48
Maize meal
39.56 40.22 40.96 1.66 1.84
Imported rice
46.86 47.63 49.8 1.64 4.57
Cow peas 65.43 71.73 78.33 9.61 9.21
Cooking oil 108.37 114.77 121.48 5.9 5.84
Tete
Maize 23.69 22.6 24.09 -4.58 6.56
Maize meal
50.3 51.08 57.52 1.56 12.62
Imported rice
46.08 47.2 46.96 2.43 -0.52
Cow peas 78.09 78.95 75.42 1.11 -4.48
Cooking oil 125.01 128.86 127.92 3.08 -0.73
Sofala Maize 23 22.75 26 -1.09 14.29
Table 1: October food prices by province (in MZN
Source: mVAM, October 2016 Source: mVAM, October 2016
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Maize grain and maize meal prices increase in most districts
In October, maize became more expensive in most surveyed markets. The only exceptions were Chibuto (Gaza) and Mucumbora/Mague (Tete), which could be a result of
the large amount of humanitarian assistance delivered to these districts. In Gaza, maize was being sold at an average 28.53 MZN/kg in October, while in Tete, it was
slightly cheaper at 24.08 MZN/kg. In Zumbo, prices have typically been lower than in other markets because the district has high agricultural productivity. However,
prices in Zumbo rose by 60 percent in October, potentially reflecting the peak of the lean season. Bilene-Macia recorded highest maize prices in October of 30.00 MZN/kg,
slightly above the average for Tete province (Figure 1).
In Tete, maize meal prices stood at 57.52 MZN/kg, an increase compared to September (Figure 2). However, in October most of the markets in Gaza registered the
lowest prices for maize meal: an average 40.96 MZN/kg, and as low as 40.36 MZN/kg in Chibuto. The low maize meal prices in Gaza could be a result of the assistance
that has been implemented since the start of the emergency in July 2016. Gaza also shares a border with South Africa – one of the countries least affected by El Niño – so
there may be some trade taking place. Even so, nationally prices are expected to remain stable but high because of the lean season and the economic crisis.
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mVAM Bulletin #3: October 2016 MOZAMBIQUE
Figure 1: Retail price for maize grain (MZN/kg) by district
Figure 2: Retail price for maize meal (MZN/kg) by district
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mVAM
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2016
Map 1: Retail price for maize meal (MZN/kg) by district
Sourc
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mVAM
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2016
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Imported foods become more expensive
Imported foods (rice and cooking oil) saw a price hike in October 2016, worsened by the
depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar (Figures 3 and 4).
Rice is an important substitute for maize meal for most of the population. Rice prices
continued to rise in October: on average rice in Gaza retailed at 49.80 MZN/kg and in
Tete at 46.95 MZN/kg. Maputo province registered 50.80 MZN/kg from its only surveyed
market, Magude.
The highest rice prices were recorded in Zumbo market: 13 percent above the provincial
average. As Figure 4 shows, the already high prices have been increasing progressively
over the last three months. For instance, vegetable oil retailed at 121 MZN/litre in Gaza
and 128 MZN/litre in Tete. However, most markets retailed cooking oil below the
provincial average.
The supply of cow peas – an alternative source of protein for most households – remains
limited in most markets. The average retail price for cow peas in October was
78.33 MNZ/kg in Gaza, 75.41 MNZ/kg in Tete and 90.00 MZN/kg in Maputo province.
Source: mVAM, October 2016
mVAM Bulletin #3: October 2016 MOZAMBIQUE
Figure 3: Retail price for rice (MZN/kg) by district
Figure 4: Retail price for cooking oil (MZN/litre) by district
Source: mVAM, October 2016 Source: mVAM, October 2016
Figure 5: Retail price for cow peas (MZN/kg) by district
Ute Meir [email protected]
Lara Carrilho [email protected]
Andrew Odero [email protected]
Arif Husain [email protected]
mVAM Resources:
Website: http://vam.wfp.org/sites/mvam_monitoring/
Blog: mvam.org
Toolkit: http://resources.vam.wfp.org/mVAM
For further information:
Some traders were expecting stock shortages because of a lack of money to restock and the unavailability of stock from the central markets. Some also mentioned a lack
of transportation coupled with bad/inaccessible roads to bring the stock to their respective markets as factors that could contribute to shortages.
Poor rains and high food prices seem to be the main issues underlying food insecurity in their communities. Traders continued to report a fall in purchasing power in
October. Similar to September, the ongoing economic crisis – which has pushed up food prices – has reduced people’s capacity to purchase food and non-food items. This
means people are not buying in bulk and some are requesting to buy goods on credit. However, due to the economic crisis, traders feel there is no guarantee of payment
so are reluctant to offer credit.
mVAM Bulletin #3: October 2016 MOZAMBIQUE
Stock shortages expected
Figure 6: Word cloud “The situation is bad because corn and corn meal have been unavailable,
these products have been unobtainable in the last week.” – Female trader
from Mucumbora/Mague, Tete province
“People want to buy food on credit but the merchants do not accept be-
cause there is no guarantee of payment due to the financial crisis that
has hit the country.” – Female trader from Chifunde, Tete province
“Livestock is dying due to lack of pastures and water.” – Male trader from
Chibuto, Gaza province
“The buying prices for maize flour are high, making it difficult to buy
maize for sell.” – Male trader from Mutarara, Tete province
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