Moving Past the “Wall” of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Martha HayAugust 2011

Exploring the limits of corn-based ethanol as a renewable fuel

The Energy Crisis• In 2003, 83% of energy came from fossil fuels

▫Fossil fuels = nonrenewable limited supply

• US makes up ~5% of global population, yet consumes 25% of oil

• US imports ~60% of its oil

• Developing countries growing worldwide energy consumption

• Increasing competition = threat to US fuel supply

Additional concerns•Environmental concerns

▫Combustion byproducts: CO2 – greenhouse gas CO – pollutant NOx –pollutant

•Drilling oil spills▫BP Gulf Coast▫Exxon Valdez

Push towards alternative fuels• ~74% of petroleum went

to transportation sector in 2009

•Alternative transportation fuel could significantly reduce fossil fuel consumption

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)•Promote development of alternative

energy▫Tax incentives▫Mandates by volume (gallons)

•Goal=36 billion gallons renewable fuel in 2022

•Blenders contribute Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO)

4 Categories•Total renewable fuels•Advanced biofuels•Cellulosic and

agricultural waste-based biofuel

•Biomass-based diesel (BBD)

http://www.greentechnolog.com/industry/renewal_fuels_inc/

http://thepurporters.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/a-view-of-the-future-irresponsible-practices-are-washing-the-ground-from-beneath-our-feet/

2022 Goal attainable?•36 billion gallons renewable fuels•No more than 15 billion from corn-based ethanol•Biodiesel capped at 1 billion for 2012

▫2022 goal not set•≥ 16 billion from cellulosic•Cellulosic falls short

▫Bumped down from 250 to 6.6 million gallons for 2011

Where will the rest of this renewable fuel come from?

Corn-based ethanol•In 2010, ethanol production contributed

$53.6 billion to the GDP•In 2010, ethanol production employed

70,000 Americans•In 2004, CO2 emissions reduced by > 7

million tons, equivalent to removing >1 million cars from the road for 1 year

Ethanol Consumption•14.31 billion gallons produced in 2010•Cars approved for 10% ethanol (E10) in

gasoline▫Exception Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)

Can use up to 85% ethanol•74% gasoline produced in the U.S. contains

ethanol•Two types:

▫Corn-based –contributes the majority▫Cellulosic – not economical to manufacture

Ethanol is green•Environmental “savings” actually just a trade-off •Not cost-competitive even after 30 yrs of

development &subsidies▫Ethanol not actually that young

•Limited biomass•Farm equipment uses fossil fuels•Food versus Fuel

2009 national ethanol production used ~32% of U.S. corn crop

•Corrosive infrastructure problems

Pushing past the ethanol “wall”•Corn will be main contributor for RFS•Wall = when the U.S. fuel supply can’t

absorb anymore ethanol▫Assuming the following don’t change

drastically E10 limit # of FFVs Availability of E85

How to push past the “wall”•A) Increase the concentration of ethanol

in gasoline for regular cars (E10 E15)•B) Increase number of FFVs on the road

and availability of E85 at fueling stations

Option A – Approve higher blends•EPA tried to pass an E15 waiver. •Opposition:

▫Insufficient, incomplete DOE testing▫Several automobiles failed testing for

emissions▫E10 already causing problems for non-road

engines (chainsaws, lawnmowers, boats)▫Some states want E0 to be available

Option B –more FFVs and E85•There are only 8 million FFVs on the road,

and approx. 1% of fueling stations offer E85.

•EPA estimates that FFV owners only fill up with E85 about 5% of the time

•Retailers have to pay for the modifications for E85 retail stations (expensive)

Inevitable problems•Significant hurdles regardless

▫Ethanol transported via rail (66%), trucks (29%), and barge (5%) Not compatible with petroleum pipelines New pipelines expensive

▫Retail stations USTs, nozzles, and piping need to be

upgraded Retailers would have to upgrade their

systems on their own expensive

When in doubt: throw more money at it!•Blender’s credit for following a federal

mandate•Corn ethanol subsidies totaled $7.0

billion in 2006 •Subsidies unevenly

distributed

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11513.pdf

Recommendations•Cut subsidies for ethanol and oil industries•Should not approve E15 just to pass the

“wall”need to complete sufficient testing

•Provide financial assistance for retailers willing to provide E85

•Invest in drop-in fuels▫Technology development funding

•E0 available for non-road engines•Regional fuels

Potentially Useful Conversion Processes

New Zealand

Broaden the RFS•Add category for electric/hybrid cars•Two pools for light-duty and heavy-duty

vehicles▫Biodiesel capped at 1 billion gallons

Best Practices•Reduce energy consumption

▫Passivhaus – German building standard▫Increase gas prices (consider Europe)▫Promote electric and hybrid cars

•Promote other renewable energy: solar, wind, nuclear can all contribute to electric

•Education informed decision makers•International collaboration worth

consideration

Questions?