14
Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected] We are publishing our first “Endangered Species List”, which is a list of mining investment assets we consider most likely to go extinct (be acquired) in 2020. In addition, we plan to update this list of names throughout the year. In this note, we outline the criteria used for being selected to our list and a brief rationale of the specific catalyst that we believe could lead to the takeout occurring. We consider companies most likely to be acquired in 2020 as “endangered species”. The criteria for our list includes the following in no particular order: 1) Jurisdiction – Obviously, assets/companies in more favourable locations are more likely to receive interest. Different groups have different risk tolerances and interpretations of the quality of jurisdictions, but companies that share common jurisdictions are more likely to look at one another as potential merger/acquisitions targets. 2) Grade/Margin – Grade generally dictates margin, provided deposits are economically recoverable. Grade is king unless there are extenuating factors – such as poor recoveries, mineralization too far below surface, or if on surface a strip ratio that is exceptionally high. 3) Critical Mass – Size matters. Even if an asset produces an extremely high margin, it must have a sufficient size to generate takeover interest. 4) Recent Investments or Overtures – By this we mean have other companies purchased an endangered species company’s stock or made public statements regarding a possible combination or even a “non-binding” offer. 5) Commodity Scarcity – Unlike gold or copper that have hundreds of mining companies to choose from, certain metals or commodities have very few opportunities to invest in them, which makes them more likely to be acquired. A perfect example is the current red-hot palladium space which has very few companies to invest in and even fewer of any size or quality in a decent jurisdiction. 6) Deposit Scarcity – Certain types of deposits are more desirable than others for a whole host of reasons and their rarity makes them increasingly likely to be targeted by an acquirer. 7) Management History – Does the C-suite or BOD have a history of acquiring, selling or merging companies. Experience in these situations greatly increases the likelihood a company could transact. It is often said, there are three kinds of mining industry executives: builders, buyers and sellers. 8) Shareholder Base – If a company has only a few large shareholders that are simply looking for return on their investment (as opposed to corporates potentially looking for its next growth project or a downstream group looking to secure physical offtake of metal produced) that company would easily get shareholder approval for a sale of an asset or the entire entity. Our Endangered Species List (Page 1) – We have compiled a list of companies that we believe could be taken out in the near term. For each of the companies we have also provided a detailed overview with our takeout thesis and valuation (only for our coverage) starting on page 2. Endangered Species List Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo Thematic January 14, 2020

Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

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Page 1: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

We are publishing our first “Endangered Species List”, which is a list of mining investment assets we consider most likely to go extinct (be acquired) in 2020. In addition, we plan to update this list of names throughout the year. In this note, we outline the criteria used for being selected to our list and a brief rationale of the specific catalyst that we believe could lead to the takeout occurring.

We consider companies most likely to be acquired in 2020 as “endangered species”. The criteria for our list includes the following in no particular order:

1) Jurisdiction – Obviously, assets/companies in more favourable locations are more likely to receive interest. Different groups have different risk tolerances and interpretations of the quality of jurisdictions, but companies that share common jurisdictions are more likely to look at one another as potential merger/acquisitions targets.

2) Grade/Margin – Grade generally dictates margin, provided deposits are economically recoverable. Grade is king unless there are extenuating factors – such as poor recoveries, mineralization too far below surface, or if on surface a strip ratio that is exceptionally high.

3) Critical Mass – Size matters. Even if an asset produces an extremely high margin, it must have a sufficient size to generate takeover interest.

4) Recent Investments or Overtures – By this we mean have other companies purchased an endangered species company’s stock or made public statements regarding a possible combination or even a “non-binding” offer.

5) Commodity Scarcity – Unlike gold or copper that have hundreds of mining companies to choose from, certain metals or commodities have very few opportunities to invest in them, which makes them more likely to be acquired. A perfect example is the current red-hot palladium space which has very few companies to invest in and even fewer of any size or quality in a decent jurisdiction.

6) Deposit Scarcity – Certain types of deposits are more desirable than others for a whole host of reasons and their rarity makes them increasingly likely to be targeted by an acquirer.

7) Management History – Does the C-suite or BOD have a history of acquiring, selling or merging companies. Experience in these situations greatly increases the likelihood a company could transact. It is often said, there are three kinds of mining industry executives: builders, buyers and sellers.

8) Shareholder Base – If a company has only a few large shareholders that are simply looking for return on their investment (as opposed to corporates potentially looking for its next growth project or a downstream group looking to secure physical offtake of metal produced) that company would easily get shareholder approval for a sale of an asset or the entire entity.

Our Endangered Species List (Page 1) – We have compiled a list of companies that we believe could be taken out in the near term. For each of the companies we have also provided a detailed overview with our takeout thesis and valuation (only for our coverage) starting on page 2.

Endangered Species List

Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo Thematic

January 14, 2020

Page 2: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 1 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

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Page 3: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 2 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Endangered Species List – In Depth

Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer dual listed on the TSX and LSE. Its principal asset is the Sukari gold mine located in Egypt that has ~8Moz of combined open pit and underground reserves (as of 30 June 2017) with an expected 20-year mine life. The company’s base case production estimate is ~500k oz/yr Au. We believe there is potential to optimize mining and processing activities to exceed this level. Centamin is expecting to come in at the low end of its 2019 guidance of 490-520koz Au production and the top end of its cash costs of production of US$675-725/oz and AISC of US$890-950/oz. The company also has exploration projects in Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire. Takeout Thesis: On December 3, 2019 Endeavour Mining (TSX:EDV) made an unsolicited offer of an all-share merger between the two companies, which was unanimously rejected by Centamin’s board the following day. However, recent overtures by Endeavour have put this transaction back in play. Centamin has been granted an extension to the bidding deadline by the UK Takeover Panel until January 14th, after which it would have to wait six months before it could launch a hostile bid. Should the companies be unable to agree to a firm offer, we suspect the company could receive a hostile bid from Endeavour after the six-month hold period or possibly be targeted by a different group in the meantime. Five hundred thousand-ounce gold producers with 20-year mines lives are few and far between.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price ($/sh) $2.16

Fair Value Estimate ($/sh) N/A

52 Week Low / High $1.34 / $2.62

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 1,155.3 1,155.3

Market Capitalization ($MM) $2,490.1

Enterprise Value ($MM) $2,128.0

Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM) $362.1

Total Debt ($MM) $0.0

STOCK CHART

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Page 4: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 3 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Coro Mining Corp. (TSX:COP) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Jacob Willoughby Fair Value Estimate: C$0.30/sh (unchanged) Methodology: NAVPS8% estimate Company Description: Coro is a Canadian listed copper company that is focused on advancing its Marimaca project in Chile’s Antofagasta region. Marimaca has the potential to become one of the most significant copper‐oxide discoveries in recent years. The company has recently increased its total measured and indicated resources by 45% and its inferred resources by 585%. Coro has also improved its understanding of the deposit and expanded the known extent of mineralization over a 20km2 area. Also notable is that Marimaca is ideally situated in northern Chile and has easy access to a nearby power supply, acid plants, water, a deep-water port, highways, and an airport. Additionally, the region hosts a large workforce that is skilled in mining and provides an ample supply of mining services companies. Coro has a huge land package of 300 km2 in the district, of which less than 10% has been explored thus far, which leaves tremendous room for possible upside. Takeout Thesis: SX/EW Cu mines are dwindling and opportunities in any decent jurisdiction are extremely rare. Mid tiers are likely to look for near-term production opportunities once the trade war is resolved. As Coro has consolidated 100% ownership of the Marimaca project through a recent US$12M transaction, the company has simplified control and ultimately, the takeout for potential acquirers. With recent copper acquisitions transacting at an average P/NAV of 0.75x, we see considerable upside to the Coro’s implied take-out valuation of C$0.28/sh based on this metric.

Valuation: We continue to believe that the company is significantly undervalued. Since the updated resource estimate was in line with our expectations, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of C$0.30/sh based on 0.8x our base case NAV estimate of C$0.37/sh. We believe a shift to low initial capex alternatives ($25M - $35M) for the staged development of Marimaca in conjunction with leveraging the nearby 100%-owned Ivan SX/EW plant could greatly enhance the IRR (>60%) of the project.

*Priced as of January 6th, 2019

Page 5: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 4 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (TSX:DPM) Company Description: Dundee Precious Metals (DPM) is a Canadian based gold producer with two 100% owned mines in Bulgaria. Its large Chelopech underground mine is its main asset and its secondary mine is its open pit Krumovgrad (Ada Tepe) mine. The company also strategically acquired the Tsumeb smelter in Namibia to be able to process complex copper concentrates, in particular the gold-rich copper concentrate it produces from Chelopech that has high arsenic content. Annual production for DPM is currently ~250k oz and is set to grow to ~350koz Au Eq. Production for 2019 came in the mid point of its guidance of 231k oz of Au, of 37M lbs. Its cost guidance is US$670-820 AISC/oz Au. DPM also owns 100% of the Timok gold project in Serbia that is at the PEA stage, and has the following equity interests: 1) a ~10% interest in Sabina Gold & Silver (TSX:SBB) worth ~C$50M, 2) a 19.5% ownership in INV Metals (TSX:INV) worth ~C$10M and 3) a JV partnership with Pershimex Resources (TSXV:PRO) at the Malartic property in Quebec. Takeout Thesis: After several years of major capital spending, DPM is now transitioning into a substantial FCF generator. It expects to spin off $120M-$170M in FCF and currently only has $27M in debt. There is no peer that can generate FCF at the level DPM can for the next several years. This why we feel the company would be an attractive acquisition target to any mining company that is comfortable investing in Bulgaria. We have visited both of DPM’s operations and found Bulgaria to be quite similar to many other countries in the EU. We would note that its Chelopech mine has won numerous industry awards, and we found it to be by far the most technologically advanced operation we have ever seen. Companies from all over the globe visit Chelopech to learn from DPM’s underground expertise and technical innovation to improve their own operations.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price ($/sh) $5.58

Fair Value Estimate ($/sh) N/A

52 Week Low / High $3.46 / $6.66

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 179.2 179.2

Market Capitalization ($MM) $1,000.2

Enterprise Value ($MM) $1,015.5

Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM) $20.4

Total Debt ($MM) $35.7

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Page 6: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 5 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSX:FM) Company Description: First Quantum Minerals (FQM) is a Canadian company and one of the world’s top ten copper producers. The company was first incorporated in 1983 and acquired Inmet Mining Corp. in March 2013. Today it has seven operating mines: Kansanshi mine and smelter (80%) and Sentinel (100%) in Zambia, Guelb Moghrein (100%) in Mauritania, Las Cruces (100%) in Spain, Pyhäsalmi (100%) in Finland, Ravensthorpe (100%) in Australia and Çayeli (100%) in Turkey. Additionally, the company has recently commissioned its massive Cobre Panama Cu-Au-Ag-Mo open pit mine in Panama. First Quantum also has potential open pit growth projects in Argentina (Taca Taca), Peru (Haquira) and Zambia (Enterprise). Production 702k t of Cu, 257k oz of Au and 18k t of Zn. Current guidance for 2020 – 2022 ~830k t of Cu at cash costs of $1.20 - $1.40 per pound along with byproduct gold production of 280k – 300k oz and 25k t of nickel from its freshly restarted Ravensthorpe mine in Australia. Takeout Thesis: The company’s crown jewel is its Cobre Panama mine that currently has an expected life of ~40 years but could end up running for more like 60 years by converting resources into reserves. Cobre Panama is a top tier Cu mine. The recent announcement that Jiangxi Copper Investment Company (an arm of Jiangxi Copper - the largest Cu producer in China) had increased its ownership in First Quantum to 18% could put this major Cu producer in play. The company stated that it is wary of Jiangxi buying more shares and recently moved to bolster its defenses against a predatory takeover by adopting a shareholder poison pill strategy. Under the rights plan announced on January 6th, 2019, investors in First Quantum will be allowed to buy extra additional shares at a “substantial” discount if another party takes a 20 per cent stake without first approaching the board. We have seen this movie before and most of the time it ends with a takeover.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price ($/sh) $13.28

Fair Value Estimate ($/sh) N/A

52 Week Low / High $7.84 / $16.63

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 685.2 685.2

Market Capitalization ($MM) $9,100.0

Enterprise Value ($MM) $20,694.2

Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM) $1,243.1

Total Debt ($MM) $12,837.3

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Page 7: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 6 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

GoviEx Uranium Inc. (TSXV:GXU) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Derek Macpherson Fair Value Estimate: C$0.45/share (unchanged) Methodology: NAVPS12% estimate Company Description: GoviEx is a uranium developer focused on its advanced assets in Africa - particularly its flagship, Madaouela project in Niger, which is permitted with a relatively short path to production. Additionally, the company has development stage projects Mutanaga in Zambia and Falea in Mali. Given its strategic location and high price sensitivity we believe GoviEx’s advanced projects are well positioned to take advantage of a new uranium bull market. Takeout Thesis: We believe GoviEx’s shovel ready project in Niger and other project’s in Africa are attractive for uranium companies looking to secure long-term supply. Additionally, projects in Niger have great appeal for companies that are not averse to securing supply and operating in jurisdictions with increased risk, such as Chinese and Russian nuclear energy companies. With Chinese & Russian companies building most of the reactors in the developing world with long-term supply agreements – they need to secure long-term supply. We expect both to be active in jurisdictions (i.e. Africa) that traditional investors are less likely to go. Considering the depressed state of the uranium market, there are bargains to be found for those companies willing to look towards the long term. Valuation: GoviEx is a unique late-stage development company that is well positioned to start production during the next cycle. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of C$0.45/sh, which is based on 0.75x our base case NAVPS estimate of C$0.65/sh (unchanged). Upcoming catalysts include: project financing updates which are expected to be ongoing and dependent on market conditions.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price $0.15

NAVPS $0.65

Fair Value Estimate (C$/sh) $0.45

52 Week Low / High $0.12 / $0.21

P/NAV

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 423 597

Market Capitalization ($MM) $63.5

Enterprise Value ($MM) $62.2

Last Reported Quarter Cash ($MM) $1.3

Total Debt ($MM) $0.0

STOCK CHART

NET ASSET VALUE (C$M) (C$/sh)

Madaouela $87.57 $0.11

Madaouela In-Situ $164.52 $0.21

Falea In-Situ $41.07 $0.05

Other assets/liabilities $0.00 $0.00

Total Corporate Adjustments $148.17 $0.19

Total Post-Financing NAV (C$M) $521.46 $0.65

RELATIVE VALUATION EV/lb U3O8 P/NAV

Peer Group Average* $0.44 0.29x

GoviEx Uranium Inc. $0.28 0.23x

*Capital IQ Consensus

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Page 8: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 7 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (TSX:PTM) Company Description: Platinum Group Metals (PGM) is a mining company focused on the production of platinum and palladium with projects located in the Bushveld Complex in South Africa. PGM is a member of the Waterberg JV, a joint venture between Platinum Group Metals (37.05%), Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (Implats) (15%), JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation) (12.95%), Hanwa Co. (9.75%) and BEE partner Mnombo Wethu Consultants (Pty) Ltd. (26%). As a result of Platinum Group’s 49.90% ownership in Mnombo the company has an effective interest in the Waterberg JV of 50.02%. The Waterberg PGM Project is located in South Africa on the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Complex. Waterberg represents a large-scale platinum group metal resource with an attractive risk profile given its shallow nature. Reserves and resources were updated as part of the 2019 DFS, and stand at 187Mt grading 3.24 g/t 4E (Pt-Pd-Au-Rh) containing 19.5M oz 4E with a projected mine life of ~45 years. Annual projected steady state production is 420k oz 4E with an average life of mine cost of $640 per 4E oz, which puts it in the lowest quartile of PGM mines globally. Additionally, Anglo American Platinum and Platinum Group Metals Ltd. launched a new venture, Lion Battery Technologies Inc., to accelerate the development of next-generation battery technology using platinum and palladium. Takeout Thesis: The pending decision by Implats (JSE:IMP) to increase its ownership in Waterberg, may only be a stepping-stone to looking for more. Following approval of the recently completed DFS accepted by the Waterberg JV partners on December 5th, Implats has 90 business days to make an election whether or not to exercise its purchase and development option to increase its stake in the Waterberg JV from 15% to 50.01% by purchasing an additional 12.195% equity interest from JOGMEC for US$34.8 million and earning into the remaining 22.815% interest by making a firm commitment to an expenditure of $130Min development work (Implats has to complete that spend before the other partners need to contribute their pro rata share of mine development costs). This places an April 2020 deadline on the decision. Given the recent rise in palladium and other PGM prices (especially rhodium which just hit $7,600 an oz) and overall demand for the metal, we expect Implats to exercise the purchase and development option – beyond which Implats may be tempted to acquire more of the project. Afterall, PGM’s entire EV is less than $180M and Implats recently paid C$1B to acquire North American Palladium.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price ($/sh) $2.33

Fair Value Estimate ($/sh) N/A

52 Week Low / High $1.36 / $2.91

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 62.3 66.0

Market Capitalization ($MM) $145.3

Enterprise Value ($MM) $184.2

Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM) $7.4

Total Debt ($MM) $46.4

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Page 9: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 8 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

RNC Minerals (TSX:RNX) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Derek Macpherson Fair Value Estimate: C$0.90/sh Methodology: One-year forward NTM EBITDA Estimate Company Description: RNC is a junior gold producer with assets in Western Australia. RNC's principal assets are 100% ownership of the producing Beta Hunt and Higginsville gold mines. The company also has a 28% interest in the Dumont Nickel Project located in Quebec. We believe RNC Minerals has transitioned to profitability at its Beta Hunt and Higginsville mines in Western Australia and expect the company to demonstrate improved costs over the course of 2020. Additionally, there is evidence to suggest that the “Higher-Grade Contact Zone” could add significant ounces to the bottom-line providing investors with significant exploration upside. Takeout Thesis: The gold space has already seen an increase in M&A activity and some significant wins, especially from Australian producers putting strong balance sheets to work, acquiring US$3B in assets in 2019. Australian producers have been chasing North American assets that appear to be trading at discount. Given, that RNC is in the “Aussies” backyard, we believe it could become an attractive target. We believe that as the operational turnaround progresses and should the “High-Grade Contact Zone” consistently deliver the higher grades we expect, RNC is likely to be an attractive target. Valuation: Operating and financial execution key to re-rating. Our fair value estimate of C$0.90/sh, which is based on 6.0x our one-year forward NTM EBITDA estimate of C$92.6M. RNC continues to trade at a discount to peers at 3.3x 2020E EBTIDA and 0.42x NAV (peers 6.5x and 1.04x, respectively). We believe that as the company continues to execute, the stock should re-rate towards our $0.90/sh fair value estimate. Upcoming Catalysts include: 1) 2020 guidance (Q1/20), 2) Updated Higginsville resource (H1/20) and 3) Q4 operating results (Q1/20). (Read our recent initiation report here)

(Currency is C$ unless noted otherwise)Closing Price (C$/sh) $0.47Potential Return 91%52 Week Low / High (C$/sh)Fair Value Estimate (C$/sh) $0.90

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted Shares Outstanding (M) 606.5 658.2 Market Capitalization (C$M) $285.1

Enterprise Value (C$M) $283.4

Cash (C$M) $33.6

Debt (C$M) $32.0

FYE: DEC 31 2019A 2020E 2021EAu Produced (000's oz) 66 106 102

Cash Costs (C$/oz) $1,377 $1,027 $920CAPEX (C$M) $41 $24 $24Gross Revenue (C$M) $124 $212 $204

EBITDA (C$M) $17 $86 $93

CFPS (C$/sh) $0.01 $0.14 $0.11

EPS (C$/sh) -$0.02 $0.13 $0.10

STOCK CHART

PRODUCTION FORECAST

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Page 10: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 9 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

SolGold Plc. (TSX:PLC) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Jacob Willoughby Fair Value Estimate: C$1.50/sh (unchanged) Methodology: NAVPS8% estimate Company Description: SolGold’s 85%-owned Alpala deposit is located within the Cascabel concessions in Ecuador and is the company’s most advanced project. Alpala is among the world’s largest undeveloped copper projects and is likely to be a multi-generation mine, which is the type of asset that is highly coveted by major miners. Additionally, SolGold has amassed a large property portfolio in Ecuador – essentially ten early stage properties prospective for porphyry copper/epithermal gold covering ~320,000 hectares. Takeout Thesis: The Alpala project is the only world-class Cu-Au porphyry project in the hands of a “junior” plus SolGold owns 12 other high-potential projects in Ecuador that have excellent potential. BHP recently invested US$22M in the company to buy 77M shares, making it the largest shareholder of SolGold by a narrow margin, with total ownership of 14.7%. This deal solidified SolGold’s business relationship with BHP. We would note that shareholder agreement stipulates that BHP is not able to buy more shares in the market until October 2020. Previously, Newcrest Mining had invested in the company, and it has an ownership stake of 14.62%. It is important to note that the stand-still to purchase additional shares has expired for Newcrest. After Lundin Gold paved the way in Ecuador with the commissioning of its Fruta del Norte mine, the door has been opened to other companies looking to cash in on of the recent jumpstarting of the country’s mining industry. Additionally, the massive Alpala project could be of interest to miners looking to expand their portfolio and resources. Valuation: Our Base Case valuation for SolGold is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. We reiterate a C$1.50 fair value estimate based on 0.8x our C$1.84 NAVPS8%. Upcoming catalysts include: 1) Resource update at Alpala (Q1/20), 2) Alpala prefeasibility study results (H1/20), and 3) Potential metal streaming financing. We note that any potential streaming financing could be of the $1 billion plus size due to the enormity of the Alpala resource and could substantially remove any perceived “financing” overhang for the stock.

*Priced as of January 6th, 2019

Page 11: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 10 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Standard Lithium Ltd. (TSXV:SLL) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Derek Macpherson Company Description: Standard Lithium is a lithium brine developer advancing its Smackover Project in Arkansas with joint venture (JV) partner and global specialty chemical company, LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (XTRA:LXS). The Standard Lithium team has developed proprietary lithium technology (LiSTR) to extract lithium as a by-product to bromine from LANXESS’ existing brine processing business and is in the process of commissioning a demonstration plant at the project. We expect a successful demonstration scale pilot plant run is going to drive a commercial production decision and a re-rating of the stock and potentially result in a takeover of Standard Lithium by Lanxess. Takeout Thesis: The joint venture is currently contemplated as 70% LANXESS, 30% Standard Lithium (potential for Standard Lithium to increase to 40%). LANXESS has committed to 100% of the off-take and to fund the construction of the commercial scale operations. The pilot plant’s success is key to finalizing the JV and a construction decision. Effectively, Standard Lithium is at an inflection point and we believe it is now only a matter of time before its much larger partner, Lanxess (XTRA:LXS), acquires 100% of the project. A recently published PEA (2019) highlights a high-margin and economically robust lithium project in the current market environment, which could make this scenario attractive to Lanxess. It is important to note that Lanxess has clearly indicated to its investors that this new lithium vertical is an important area of growth for them. Valuation: Continued momentum should drive near-term re-rating. The company trades at a discount to peers, at US$17/t LCE (peers US$38/t LCE); however, we believe this high-margin project with a short, de-risked path to production should trade at a substantial premium. Upcoming Catalysts include: 1) Completion of full-scale demo (H1 2020E), 2) Feasibility study decision (2020E) and 3) Commercial production decision (2020E).

(Currency is C$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price (C$/sh) $0.81

NAV (C$/sh) $1.37

Fair Value Estimate (C$/sh) $1.23

52 Week Low / High (C$/sh)

P/NAV 0.59x

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 88.1 114.9

Market Capitalization (C$M) $71.4

Enterprise Value (C$M) $64.9

Cash & Cash Equivalents (C$M) $6.9

Total Debt (C$M) $0.4

STOCK CHART

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Page 12: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 11 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Teranga Gold (TSX:TGZ) Company Description: Teranga is an emerging mid-tier gold producer with two producing mines in West Africa. The company is focusing on diversification and growth towards becoming a top performing mid-tier producer. Its suite of West African projects includes: 1) its Sabodala operation in Senegal, 2) its newly commissioned Wahgnion gold mine in Burkina Faso and 3) three additional exploration projects located in Burkina Faso, Cote and Senegal. Total production for 2019 was 289k oz and guidance for 2020 is 325k oz. Teranga has a rock-solid shareholder base. Billionaire David Mimran is the company’s largest shareholder and helped fund the Wahnion mine last year, which was built ahead of schedule and within budget parameters. Additionally, the company recently acquired Barrick’s 90% interest in the Massawa project Senegal for $430M in cash and stock making Barrick a 11.5% shareholder in Teranga. We see Teranga well on its way to become one of the best mid-tier producers out there. With the inclusion of Massawa, we see the company producing well over 500koz Au in coming years. Takeout Thesis: Post the recent transformative acquisition, the discounted valuation makes this an attractive target for buyers comfortable in West Africa. To fund the Massawa purchase, Teranga raised C$140 in equity at C$5.10 per share and the stock immediately traded above issue price and has continued to rise since then (current price C$7.03). We believe Teranga will catch the eye of its larger West African producing peers as it demonstrates a continued ability to increase FCF organically and operate successfully in a challenging jurisdiction.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price ($/sh) $7.00

Fair Value Estimate ($/sh) N/A

52 Week Low / High $2.97 / $7.45

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 107.6 107.6

Market Capitalization ($MM) $753.1

Enterprise Value ($MM) $947.4

Cash and Cash Equivalents ($MM) $36.9

Total Debt ($MM) $231.2

STOCK CHART

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Page 13: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 12 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Wallbridge (TSX:WM) (See our previous research here) Analyst: Jacob Willoughby Fair Value Estimate: C$0.92/sh Methodology: 0.80x multiple on our NAVPS estimate Company Description: Wallbridge is working towards defining a resource at its Fenelon Gold Property as part of a targeted sustainable +100koz gold production profile. The company is gaining a growing understanding of the geological controls of the project and drilling appears to be substantially expanding the Fenelon deposit far beyond the small high-grade resource that was originally purchased (91.1k oz at 12.97 g/t Au). Takeout Thesis: Fenelon could fit into Kirkland Lake’s long-term strategy. After Kirkland Lake Gold’s recent investment into Wallbridge, it allows us to speculate as to the motivation for the private placement and opens the possibility of an eventual takeover. We postulate that high-grade material could be trucked to Kirkland Lake’s Detour Lake Mine in Ontario to help lower overall costs. The Detour Lake Mine is ~80 km away from the Fenelon project in straight line distance. However, we caution that this possibility would be years in the future, as a road between the two mines would have to be built to enable transportation to be economically viable – the current route’s length between almost double the straight-line distance by road.

Valuation: Our valuation remains unchanged after recent financings have completely removed any financial overhang. We have valued Wallbridge using a DCF model where our fair value estimate of C$0.92/sh is based on 0.80x our NAV estimate of C$1.16/sh (unchanged). Wallbridge has virtually no financing risk for the next 12 months. Upcoming catalysts: 1) exploration updates (ongoing), 2) updates from the Denison Property and 3) potential sale or spin out of its Sudbury Ni-Cu-PGE portfolio of properties which would likely crystalize value and allow Wallbridge to focus more on its growing Fenelon gold project.

(Currency is CAD$ unless noted otherwise)

Closing Price $0.85

Fair Value Estimate $0.92

52 Week Low / High $0.17 / $0.98

CAPITALIZATION Basic Diluted

Shares Outstanding (M) 580.8 600.0

Market Capitalization ($MM) $493.7

Enterprise Value ($MM) $438.3

Cash and Equivalents ($MM) $56.6

Total Debt ($MM) $1.2

STOCK CHART

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

PEER COMPARISON

Wallbridge Mining Company Limited 0.76x

Comparable Companies 0.72x

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Page 14: Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo · Centamin Plc. (TSX:CEE, LSE:CEY) Company Description: Centamin is an African based mid-tier gold single asset gold producer

January 14, 2020 13 Move Over Pandas, These Names are Going the Way of the Dodo

Derek Macpherson | VP, Research Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected]

Derek Macpherson | VP Research, [email protected] Jacob Willoughby | VP Research, [email protected] Zachary Kotowych | Research Associate, [email protected] Taylor Combaluzier | Research Associate, [email protected] Red Cloud Securities 105 King Street East, 2nd Floor Toronto ON, M5C 1G6 [email protected] www.redcloudfs.com/research-home Disclaimer Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc. (doing business as Red Cloud Securities) is registered as an Exempt Market Dealer in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland & Labrador, and the Yukon. Part of Red Cloud Securities' business is to connect mining companies with suitable investors that qualify under available regulatory exemptions. Red Cloud Securities, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors, representatives, researchers and members of their families may hold positions in the companies mentioned in this document and may buy and/or sell their securities. Additionally, Red Cloud Securities may have provided in the past, and may provide in the future, certain advisory or corporate finance services and receive financial and other incentives from issuers as consideration for the provision of such services. Red Cloud Securities has prepared this document for general information purposes only. This document should not be considered a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The information provided has been derived from sources believed to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed. This document does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual recipients and other issues (e.g. prohibitions to investments due to law, jurisdiction issues, etc.) which may exist for certain persons. Recipients should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice before investment. Red Cloud Securities will not treat recipients of this document as clients by virtue of having viewed this document. Company Specific Disclosure Details

1. A member of Red Cloud Securities team has visited/viewed material operations of the issuer.

2. In the last 12 months, Red Cloud Securities has been retained under a service or advisory agreement by the subject issuer.

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4. Red Cloud KS or a member of the Red Cloud Securities team or household, has a long position in the shares and/or the options of the subject issuer.

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Company Name Ticker Disclosures

Centamin Plc. LSE:CEYCoro Mining Corp. TSX:COP 2,4

Dundee Precious Metals Inc. TSX:DPMFirst Quantum Minerals Ltd. TSX:FMGoviEx Uranium Inc. TSXV:GXU 2,3,4

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. TSX:PTM 2,3,4

Royal Nickel Corporation TSX:RNX 1,2,3,4,7

SolGold plc LSE:SOLG 2,3,4

Standard Lithium Ltd. TSXV:SLL 1,2,3,4

Teranga Gold Corp. TSX:TGZWallbridge Mining Company Limited TSX:WM 1,2,4