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This article was downloaded by: [University of Windsor] On: 19 November 2014, At: 18:54 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nics20 Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they? R. S. Radin Umar a a Road Safety Research Centre , Universiti Putra Malaysia , Published online: 22 Aug 2006. To cite this article: R. S. Radin Umar (2006) Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?, International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 13:2, 71-79, DOI: 10.1080/17457300500249632 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300500249632 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http:// www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions

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Page 1: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

This article was downloaded by: [University of Windsor]On: 19 November 2014, At: 18:54Publisher: Taylor & FrancisInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House,37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

International Journal of Injury Control and SafetyPromotionPublication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nics20

Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: howeffective are they?R. S. Radin Umar aa Road Safety Research Centre , Universiti Putra Malaysia ,Published online: 22 Aug 2006.

To cite this article: R. S. Radin Umar (2006) Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?,International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 13:2, 71-79, DOI: 10.1080/17457300500249632

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300500249632

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) containedin the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make norepresentations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of theContent. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, andare not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon andshould be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable forany losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoeveror howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use ofthe Content.

This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematicreproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in anyform to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions

Page 2: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

R. S. RADIN UMAR*

Road Safety Research Centre, Universiti Putra Malaysia

(Received 14 December 2004; in final form 5 July 2005)

This paper presents the approach taken by the Malaysian Government to contain

motorcycle casualties in Malaysia. It involves the exposure control, crash prevention,

behaviour modification and injury control related to humans, vehicles and the

environment based on pre-crash, crash and post-crash scenarios of motorcycle accidents.

These initiatives emanated mainly from the research and development carried out by the

Road Safety Research Centre at Universiti Putra Malaysia. Recent outcomes from these

initiatives are presented and their impact is highlighted.

Keywords: Motorcycle casualties; Motorcycle safety programme; Safety evaluation

1. Introduction

Motorcycle fatalities represent approximately 60% of the

total road fatalities in Malaysia. One of the main reasons

for their vulnerability is due to the exposed body regions

and little protection offered by motorcycle safety devices

during a collision. For example, approximately 80% of

reported motorcycle crashes result in injury and the overall

relative risk of motorcyclist deaths in Malaysia is about 20

times greater than that of passenger cars (Radin Umar et al.

1995a).

In an in-depth study of 186 fatally injured motorcyclists

derived from the police and post-mortem reports (Pang

et al. 2000) it was reported that 133 (71.5%) motorcyclists

had been certified dead at the scene of the accident.

A further 47 (25.3%) motorcyclists died less than 3 hours

after their crash (figure 1). Integumentary injuries, such as

abrasions, lacerations and contusions, were predominant.

These were followed by fractures and dislocations of the

skeletal structures. However, the head, cervical spine, chest

and abdomen have the greatest probability for fatal injuries

(figure 2). About one-third of these injuries was the result of

more than one severe vital organ injury causing death.

Cervical spine injuries were noted as one of the most

common injury categories leading to death. This is because

the neck has a relatively large mobility in a multitude of

directions. Impact to the head may cause the neck to flex,

extend, bend laterally or even rotate depending upon the

impact direction. Further, fatal trunk injuries such as

transected thoracic aorta, gross lung contusion and

haemorrhage, and also liver laceration with consequential

haemorrhage, were quite common.

Conversely, the injured region of highest frequency in the

seriously injured but surviving motorcyclists was the lower

limbs, particularly fractures. The fractures were either

compound or closed, with or without displacement of bony

tissue. Tibia ranked the highest in terms of fractures,

followed by fractures of the femur (table 1). In view of the

high incidence of fatalities and injuries that arise through

motorcycling, any steps taken to reduce such fatalities and

injuries would therefore be worthwhile. This paper there-

fore highlights some of the efforts made to tackle

motorcycle safety problems in Malaysia.

2. National motorcycle safety programme

In 1997, the Road Safety Research Centre (RSRC), Faculty

of Engineering of Universiti Putra Malaysia was appointed

by the Ministry of Transport Malaysia to conduct research

on a motorcycle safety programme for Malaysia. The

major aim of the research was to achieve the following:

. Formulation of short- and long-term business plans

for promoting motorcycle safety.

*Email: [email protected]

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, Vol. 13, No. 2, June 2006, 71 – 79

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety PromotionISSN 1745-7300 print/ISSN 1745-7319 online � 2006 Taylor & Francis

http://www.tandf.co.uk/journalsDOI: 10.1080/17457300500249632

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Page 3: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

. Establishment of a national safety policy related to

motorcycle safety.

. Establishment of a national road-vehicle-injury da-

tabase, which would be accessible to researchers and

the authorities involved in implementing motorcycle

safety initiatives.

. Introduction of new initiatives to be taken to reduce

motorcycle accidents and the severity of accidents.

. Formulation of an education programme to reduce

injury among motorcyclists as a step in promoting

motorcycle safety.

The first research report (Radin Umar et al. 1998)

identified the major problems related to motorcycle

accidents in Malaysia. This was based on over 6 000

detailed crash data involving motorcyclists in Malaysia.

More than 193 different collision mechanisms have been

analysed, and based on this analysis, the following

programmes were implemented:

. Exposure control programme.

. Conspicuity programme.

. Behaviour modification programme.

. Road engineering programme.

. Injury control programme.

3. Exposure control programme

A motorcyclist is physically exposed to bodily impact and

may be injured or killed, whether he/she remains with the

machine or is thrown off. During a crash, a motorcyclist is

likely to sustain some form of injury, even in a relatively

low-speed collision. This is because the motorcycle is

relatively less stable and offers little protection to motorcy-

clists, compared to four-wheeled vehicles. Thus, reducing

their exposures, such as encouraging them to use a safer

mode of transport, would be an attractive approach to

minimize injuries among motorcyclists. Significant gains in

traffic safety could therefore be accomplished by shaping

public policy in a way that actually reduces the amount of

Figure 1. Death profiles of motorcyclists in Malaysia.

Table 1. Characteristics of lower limb injuries among non-fatalmotorcyclists.

Type of anatomic structure

Lower limb region Soft tissue Skeletal Internal Total %

Hip/Pelvis 5 18 23 7.9

Thigh 10 41 51 17.6

Knee 54 7 2 63 21.8

Lower Leg 22 70 92 31.7

Ankle/Foot 36 24 1 61 21.0

Total 127 160 3 290 100

Figure 2. Injury distribution of motorcyclist casualties with

maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) by body.

72 R. S. Radin Umar

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Page 4: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

travel, or that substitutes safer forms of travel for less safe

forms.

In a recent Universiti Putra Malaysia study, a survey on

motorcycle commuters’ receptiveness towards various

policy changes, such as improvements to passenger trans-

port, increase in the cost of insurance and change in vehicle

ownership, was carried out. The effects of mode choice

probability in bus ridership (figure 3) and the mode choice

probability on car ridership (figure 4) were modelled in this

study. Stated preference scenarios of insurance increase on

motorcycle mode switching behaviour were also examined.

A descriptive analysis of the data (figure 5) showed that an

increase of insurance by RM100 would result in about

48.6% of the sample changing to bus whilst 32.4% would

switch to car and 18% would not change their current

commuting patterns even after the introduction of the

insurance increase policy.

4. Conspicuity programme

This involves the running headlight programme, reflective

stripe initiative and reflective vest and light-coloured

clothing campaign. The following section highlights the

most effective initiative, the running headlight intervention.

4.1. Daytime running headlights initiatives for motorcycles

This programme was carried out in mid 1992, way before

the official launching of the motorcycle safety programme.

A nationwide ‘daytime running headlight’ campaign was

carried out in July 1992 and this was followed by the

regulation on compulsory use of headlights in September

1992. This initiative was the outcome of earlier research

(Radin Umar et al. 1995a, 1996) that revealed the

phenomenon, ‘looked but failed to see’ during the daytime,

especially when motorcyclists are at the peripheral vision of

other drivers, as a major problem related to motorcycle

safety in Malaysia. Since the implementation of this

initiative, the percentage of motorcyclists riding with lights

switched on increased sharply just after the campaign and

stood at more than 82 to date.

The detailed analysis of the impact of the running

headlights intervention to conspicuity-related motorcycle

(MSTOX) accidents in Malaysia has been reported by

Radin Umar et al. (1995a). In this analysis, MSTOX

accidents were defined as all accidents involving motor-

cycles travelling straight or turning on right-of-way and

colliding with pedestrians or other vehicles. Both univariate

and multivariate analyses were used and the best fit or

parsimonious model ( p5 0.01) to explain conspicuity-

related accidents per week (Radin Umar et al. 1996) is:

MSTOX ¼ 6:265�e0:005WEEK

��e0:337RECSYS

��e0:340FAST

��e�0:341RHL

Graphically, the observed and modelled weekly MSTOX

accidents are shown in figure 6. This model revealed that the

running headlight intervention reduced MSTOX accidents

by about 29% (exp – 0.3405). In terms of number, about 800

less motorcycle accidents were estimated from this inter-

vention. As such, this intervention has been successful in

improving conspicuity-related accidents in Malaysia.

5. Behaviour modification programme

5.1. Targeted motorcycle safety campaign

This approach involves systematic and targeted behaviour

modification programmes directed at young motorcyclists.

Figure 3. Effect of bus travel time reduction on mode

choice.

Figure 4. Effect of car ownership on mode choice

probability.

Figure 5. Effect of insurance premium on switching

behaviour.

Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia 73

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Page 5: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

A research-driven approach related to this target group,

issues and use of the media was analysed prior to

implementation (figure 7). This included: (a) the identifica-

tion of specific target segments (such as young, male, Malay

riders); (b) identification of strategic issues (such as head

injuries due to not wearing safety helmets properly

secured); (c) development of campaign materials and media

rationale; (d) pre-testing campaign materials; (e) produc-

tion and auditing campaign materials; (f) running the

campaign with the right media and intensity; (g) evaluating

the effectiveness of the implemented safety campaigns.

Under the seventh Malaysia Plan, a total of nine

television commercials on strategic safety issues related to

motorcyclists were produced and aired to the public. The

campaign concentrated on ‘tactical issues’ related to

motorcycle daytime and night-time rear conspicuity, proper

use of helmets, injury risk during crashes and the effects of

speeding and weaving problems. These are the corrective

approach or the stop-gap measures related to motorcycle

safety. Apart from these measures, a long-term behaviour

modification approach involving loved ones, true testimony

by parents who lost their young sons in traffic crashes and

the ‘riders to be’ campaign was also carried out. This was

further supplemented by radio commercials, billboard

messages (figure 8), newspaper advertisements, leaflets,

etc. Essentially, the campaign involved both long-term

emotional appeal as well as short term, stop-gap measures,

utilizing all strategic media modes available in the country.

Since the implementation of the campaign, an in-depth

research on the impact of the campaign on: (a) public

understanding and acceptability; (b) compliance to safety

proposition of targeted road users; and (c) effects of

intervention on accidents and casualties was carried out.

Ahmad Hariza et al. (1999a,b, 2002) found that:

. Over 87.2% of motorcyclists heard the motorcycle

safety campaign;

. 78% of the 750 respondents were able to recall the

slogan;

. 97% agreed with the message of the campaigns;

. 90% claimed that they do follow the campaign

proposition;

This gives anoverall effectiveness score of 52.5%high (rating 8

to 10), 42.3medium (rating 5 – 7) and 3.3% low (4 and below).

Figure 6. Actual and predicted conspicuity-related motor-

cycle (MSTOX) accidents in Malaysia. RHL¼ running

headlights.

Figure 7. Flowchart for safety campaign in Malaysia.

Figure 8. Proper usage of safety helmet advertisement on

billboards.

74 R. S. Radin Umar

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Page 6: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

In terms of compliance, monthly monitoring on helmet

and clothing compliances has also been carried out to

supplement the above questionnaire survey and evaluate

success of the campaign to modify rider behaviour.

The study showed a significant ( p5 0.05) increase in the

proper usage of helmets, from 44% before the campaign to

66% after the campaign. The use of light-coloured cloth-

ing also increased significantly ( p5 0.05) following the

intervention.

6. Road engineering programme

There were a number of initiatives carried out under the

road engineering programmes. Among these are the

exclusive motorcycle lanes, paved shoulder and end

treatment of non-exclusive motorcycle lanes. The following

sections highlight some of these initiatives.

6.1. The exclusive motorcycle lanes

The provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes is part of the

prevention and reduction policies by the Malaysia Highway

Authority and the Public Works Department. This policy

was underpinned by earlier research undertaken by

Universiti Putra Malaysia (Radin Umar et al. 1995b,

2000, Radin and Barton 1997) that:

(a) Reduction in motorcycle accidents was highly

significant (p5 0.05) following the opening of an

exclusive motorcycle lane, with an average reduction

of about 39% (17e– 0.471) based on the equation:

Link motorcycle accidents ¼ 4:2� 10�8

�Q3:314 exp�0:471LANE

(b) Fatality reduction amongmotorcyclists is highly sig-

nificant ( p5 0.05) with a marked reduction of 600%.

(c) Benefit:cost ratio of providing an exclusive motor-

cycle lane ranges from 3.3 to 5.22, suggesting that

the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes is highly

cost-effective in containing motorcycle problems for

highly motorcycled countries.

Under the eighth Malaysian Plan (RMK8), a total of 150

km new motorcycle lanes will be constructed to further

reduce accidents and injuries, particularly among motorcy-

clists. The warrants for providing the motorcycle lane are

based on the following criteria:

. Annual daily traffic is above 15 000 average daily

traffic (ADT) per lane;

. Number of accidents exceed five per year per

kilometre;

. The proportion of motorcycles to other vehicles

exceeds 30%.

Under this initiative, a combination of exclusive and non-

exclusive motorcycle lanes will be constructed depending

on areas, access points, capacity and road corridors.

6.2. Junction accident models and treatment criteria

Since the introduction of the world’s first exclusive

motorcycle lane in Malaysia, which was aimed at addres-

sing link motorcycle accidents along trunk roads (Radin

Umar et al. 1995b, 2000), not much has been done to

address motorcycle accident problems at junctions. As

such, it is necessary to carry out more in-depth investiga-

tions into factors contributing to motorcycle accidents at

junctions. Apart from addressing the exclusive lane criteria,

a further outcome of such research is the development of

appropriate junction treatment criteria dedicated to both

exclusive and non-motorcycle lane facilities. An initial

study on the development of predictive models for

motorcycle accidents at three-legged, major –minor prior-

ity junctions was undertaken.

The generalized linear models technique was used to

develop the models. The response variable was the number

of motorcycle accidents and the explanatory variables were

traffic flows (disaggregated into non-motorcycle and motor-

cycle), pedestrian flow, traffic speed, lane width, number of

lanes, shoulder width and land use. The continuous

variables were identified as traffic flow QNMm¼flow of

non-motorcycle traffic from major roads, QNMn¼ flow

of non-motorcycle traffic fromminor roads, QMm¼ flow of

motorcycles from major roads, QMn¼flow of motorcycles

from minor roads, pedestrian flow (QPED), traffic speed

(SPEED), lane width (LWn,m) and number of lanes (LN).

The categorical variables were identified as the shoulder

width (SHDW) with 3-factor levels, and land use category

(LU) with 2-factor levels. The final model was based on the

goodness of fit and the significance test carried out on the

models, such as the change in scaled deviance from adding

or removing the terms, the ratio of scaled deviance to its

degree of freedom (mean deviance) and ‘t’ values of the

parameter estimates are significant at 5% significance level.

Based on the multivariate analysis, the final model (Harnen

et al. 2003) developed is:

MCA ¼ 0:0059294 QNMm0:2188 QNM0:0665 QMm0:132

�QMn0:1808 EXPð0:02279 SPEED�0:0969 LWm

�0:0706 LWn�0:00738 LNm�b5 SHDWþb6 LUÞ

where MCA is motorcycle accidents per year, b5¼ 0.0,

0.00903 and 0.02099 for SHDW¼ 1, 2 and 3, respectively,

b6¼ 0.0 and 0.00755 for LU¼ 1 and 2, respectively.

Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia 75

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Page 7: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

The model suggests that the number of motorcycle

accidents is proportional to the power of traffic flow. An

increase in number ofmotorcycle accidents is associatedwith

an increase in motorcycle and non-motorcycle flows into the

junction. Non-motorcycle flow on the approach to major

roads had the highest effect on the liability of motorcycle

accidents. Traffic speed, lane width, number of lanes,

shoulder width and land use were found to be significant in

explaining motorcycle accidents at three-legged, major –

minor priority junctions. The model enables traffic engineers

to determine the appropriate junction treatment criteria for

specially designed motorcycle lane facilities. An example of

the application on this model in determining appropriate

shoulder width is illustrated in figure 9. It can be seen that for

a selected personal injury accident per year, highermajor and

minor traffic volumes could be accommodated by just

increasing the shoulder width of the approach arms.

7. Injury control programme

Injury reduction approaches need to be comprehensive to

be more effective. They must involve the application of

appropriate safety policies, vehicle and road engineering

approaches and medical and trauma management. These

may be achieved by five distinct strategies, namely:

exposure control; crash prevention; behaviour modifica-

tion; injury control; and post-injury management (Trinca

et al. 1988). Among the appropriate programmes planned

under the injury reduction strategies are the revision of

helmet standards (MS1 – 1996), new helmet design for

children and a campaign on proper use of helmets. The

former involves the upgrading of safety performance of

motorcycle helmets, which was based on the earlier

Malaysian standard MS1 – 1969. Since May 1997, all new

helmets are required to comply with this new standard.

In a study on helmet usage in several areas in Selangor,

Krishnan (1995) pointed out that more than half of the

motorcycle riders did not do up their helmet properly. This

might account for more than half the head injuries

sustained by motorcyclists in this country. To overcome

this, a targeted safety campaign on the proper use of

helmet, was developed as described above. In addition, a

compliance model (Kulanthyan et al. 2001) has been

developed to further understand factors contributing to

the compliance of proper use of helmets.

In addition, a study to gather data on real-world

motorcycle crashes was initiated in Malaysia. This involves

the compilation of hospital, vehicle and police data into a

specially designed database at RSRC. The Abbreviated

Injury Scale technique (Association for the Advance of

Automotive Medicine 1990) was adopted for injury

information whilst the standard crashworthiness approach

was used to collect vehicle and road information (Pang

et al. 2001). The aim of this research is to develop a

comprehensive database so as to gain further insight into

motorcycle crashes and safety features.

One of the most important outcomes of this research is

the development of motorcycle safety helmets with special

design features for children. This is to address some 350 000

exposed pillion children in Malaysia. Over 70% of them do

not wear helmets, whilst a sizeable number wear oversized

adult helmets or flimsy game helmets. As a result, head

injuries among children are significantly higher than that of

adult counterparts (Ong 2001). The finite element model-

ling technique has been employed in developing new

materials and design features for this helmet. This helmet

for children is in the process of patenting and standard

formulation. For further impact, a new commercial on

‘children on bike’ has been aired to the general public with

a message ‘your little heads need protection too’ (figure 10).

7.1. Motorcycle guardrails

The design of guardrails and their consequences for

motorcyclists has been given little consideration by many

researchers. In this study, three-dimensional computer

Multi Body System models and a Finite elements model

were developed for motorcycle and guardrail respectively.

The KRISS 110 model of motorcycle, commonly used in

Malaysia, was simulated to impact the W-beam guardrail

system. A standard Hybrid III 50th percentile was used to

represent the motorcyclist. The whole-body motion of the

motorcycle and dummy was simulated to crash into the

W-beam guardrail at angles of 158, 458 and 908 with an

impact speed of 50 km/hour and 30 km/hour (figure 11).

The safety performance of the existing guardrail was

evaluated through investigation of potential injury risks to

motorcyclists as well as the influence of impact speed and

impact angle on the dynamic impact responses of the

motorcyclist when colliding with the W-beam guardrail.

Six crash test scenarios were simulated and the results were

Figure 9. Effects of shoulder width (SHDW) and traffic flow

on motorcycle accidents. PIA¼ personal injury accident.

76 R. S. Radin Umar

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Page 8: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

compared to human tolerance levels as prescribed in

ISO13232. Injury risks to rider were predicted based on the

injury criteria related to head, neck, thorax and lower

extremity areas. The injury criteria related to head, neck,

thorax and lower extremity areas were calculated. Injury

risks due to impact with the guardrail at angles of 908 and 458were found to be more severe than impact with the guardrail

at lesser angles. Also, head injuries were found to be more

severe than those to the legs or arms. Speed was found to

have greater influence on the injury risks to head, neck, chest

and femur. A greater reduction of severe injuries was found

when the impact speed changes from 50km/hour to 30km/

hour, except for neck bending at a 908 impact, which is higher

than biomechanical limits for both scenarios.

Based on this model, the design of an alternative safer

guardrail was proposed. Various modifications were made

to the geometry, shape and material of the existing

guardrail system as an alternative to the current design

approach. These alternative designs were compared based

on post-impact trajectories and time histories of the rider

for the selection of best alternative design. Rider’s safety

was evaluated based on kinematics of linear accelerations

related to head, thorax and pelvis as compared to the

human tolerance levels. The selected alternative design was

created in detail and therefore recommended for use in

place of the existing guardrail.

8. Overall impact of safety initiatives in Malaysia

In view of the recent downward trend in fatality figures, an

analysis on the effects of the safety programmes was carried

out by Law and Radin Umar (2005). Apart from assessing

the impact of the safety initiatives, the effects of the recent

economic downturn were also analysed in this research.

The Box-Jenkins Time Series modelling technique was used

and the variables considered were population, registered

vehicle, gross domestic product (GDP) and traffic safety

programmes. Traffic death data from 1971 to 1998 were

obtained from the police headquarters computer system,

whilst GDP quarterly data were obtained from the Central

Bank of Malaysia. GDP data were considered in this

analysis as they reflect reasonably well the effects of the

recent economic downturn in the country. In addition,

traffic exposures, particularly population and registered

vehicles, were obtained from the Statistics Department,

Malaysia for the same year.

The model developed indicates that changes in popula-

tion, registered vehicles and economic performance

correlate positively to traffic deaths. The t-ratio for all

the component and independent variables is significant at

the 5% level. In contrast, safety intervention measures were

able to significantly reduce (p5 0.05) traffic deaths follow-

ing its implementation. The graphical plot of this model is

shown in figure 12. Therefore, it may be concluded that the

safety programmes have been effective in offsetting the

fatality trend.

9. New safety targets and programs for the year 2010

Following a positive reduction trend in fatality figures and

rates in Malaysia, a new safety target has been established

for the next 10 years. By the year 2010, Malaysia is

benchmarking against developed countries to reduce her

Figure 11. Rider’s kinematics for motorcycle impact speed

of 50 km/hour at impact angle of 908.

Figure 10. Child on Bike Campaign.

Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia 77

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Page 9: Motorcycle safety programmes in Malaysia: how effective are they?

fatality rate to less than 3.0 deaths per 10 000 vehicles

(figure 13). The projection model takes into account

changes in population, registered vehicles and other

influential factors such as population, GDP and registered

vehicles. The road accident fatality rate is projected to

decrease to 4.64 in 2010 at an average decline rate of 2.8%

per year. To achieve the new national target, which is three

fatalities per 10 000 vehicles, the decline rate has to be

far higher than 2.8% per year. In essence, the national

road safety initiatives to be conducted should produce

more than 28% total reduction in fatality rate by the end of

year 2010.

Apart from that, a new safety index, such as fatalities

per billion vehicle kilometres travelled, is currently

being established. New research-driven initiatives will be

implemented not only at the federal level, but also much

more at the state and municipal levels. In other words, the

stress is on the front-liners, which are the states and local

authorities. A concerted effort from all agencies will

collectively contribute to the targeted three deaths per

10 000 registered vehicles and the new index per billion

vehicle kilometres travelled by the end of year 2010.

References

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Figure 12. Predictive model of yearly traffic deaths.

Figure 13. Fatalities per 10 000 vehicles – pre- and post-Motorcycle Safety Program (MSP).

78 R. S. Radin Umar

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