Motor Vehicle Pollution Overview The Lessons... · 2011. 5. 2. · China Fuel Economy Workshop Michael P. Walsh 1 1 Motor Vehicle Pollution Control: Lessons Learned Over The Past

China Fuel Economy Workshop Michael P. Walsh

1

11

Motor Vehicle Pollution Motor Vehicle Pollution Control: Lessons Learned Control: Lessons Learned Over The Past Fifty YearsOver The Past Fifty Years

Michael P. WalshMichael P. WalshHong KongHong Kong

December 13, 2004December 13, 2004

22

OverviewOverview• Great Progress Has Occurred• Serious Problems Remain• Some Lessons Learned

– Comprehensive Strategy– Sulfur in Fuels– MMT– Diesels and SUVs

• Comments on China Program• Conclusions

33

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Millions

R-square = 0.951 # pts = 53 y = -1.8e+009 + 9.28e+005x

Global Trends In Motor Vehicle Global Trends In Motor Vehicle (Cars, Trucks & Buses)Production(Cars, Trucks & Buses)Production

44

Africa0.4%

Asia84.4%

Europe7.9%

Latin America3.5%

Middle East0.4%

North America3.1%

Oceania0.3%

Total: 29792139

Source: Honda Facts & Figures

The Global Market For New The Global Market For New Motorcycles and MopedsMotorcycles and Mopeds


2

55

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Millions

MotorcyclesCommercial VehiclesCars

World Motor Vehicle Population

66

77

One Result: Serious Health One Result: Serious Health ConcernsConcerns

• WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Most in Asia

• Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.

• No Evidence of a Threshold• PAPA Project Indicates

Similar Effects in Asia• Ozone, NO2, Various Toxics

Also Serious Health Concerns

88…and even more significant freight transport growth: 2,4 % /year

Problem Could Get Much WorseDue To High Growth Especially In Asia


3

99

CLEANVEHICLE

TECHNOLOGY

CLEANFUELS

APPROPRIATEMAINTENANCE

ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY

TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING

Lesson 1: Solving the Motor Vehicle Pollution Problem Requires A Comprehensive Approach

1010

Los Angeles 1955:Los Angeles 1955:The Start of the StoryThe Start of the StoryAir Not BreathableAir Not Breathableand no solutions.and no solutions.

1111

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

ppm

Ozone Nitrogen Dioxide

Good Programs Can Improve Air Good Programs Can Improve Air Quality: California TrendsQuality: California Trends

( 1( 1--hour Peak Indicator )hour Peak Indicator )

1212

0102030405060708090

100

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

California PM10 Air Quality TrendCalifornia PM10 Air Quality Trend( Maximum Annual Average of Quarters )( Maximum Annual Average of Quarters )

µ g / m 3


4

1313

Lead Free Gasoline Worldwide2004

Lead FreeLeaded

Positive Actions Are Spreading Around The World

1414

The Three-way Catalytic Converter Is Going On Over 90% Of All New Gasoline Cars Produced This Year

Worldwide

•Layered washcoatarchitectures andsupport materials withhigh thermal stability

•Integrated HC adsorptionfunctions

• Mounting materials withimproved durability

• High cell density ceramicor metallic substrates

• Insulation schemes for heat management

1515

20102008200720062005200420022000

EPA 07NOx = 0.25 P = 0.01

EPA 04NOx = 2.5 P = 0.10

EPA 98NOx = 4.0 P = 0.10

EURO VNOx=2.0 P=0.02

EURO IVNOx = 3.5 P = 0.02

CombinedEURO III-IV

EURO IIINOx = 5.0 P = 0.10

Diesel 15 ppm

Diesel 50/10 ppm

g/bhp-hr

g/kW-hr

Consent Decree

10/02

10/05 10/08

LessonLesson 2: 2: Clean Vehicles and Clean Fuels Clean Vehicles and Clean Fuels Should Be Treated As A SystemShould Be Treated As A System

EPAEPA

EUROEURO

15 months Caterpillar,Cummins,Detroit Diesel,Volvo,Mack Trucks/RenaultNavistar

1616

Gasoline Car and Fuel Gasoline Car and Fuel RegulationsRegulations

Euro I 500 ppm

Euro II 500 ppm

Euro III 150 ppm

Euro IV 50 ppm

Euro IV/V 10 ppm

Japan ’00 100 ppm

Japan ’05/07 10 ppm

CA SULEV/Tier 2 30 ppm


5

1717

■

0 0.27 1 2 3 4

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0

●

●

EURO4’05■

EURO5 ’08

US’04▲

(NOx+HC)

US 2010▲

HD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions RegulationsHD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions RegulationsHD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions Regulations

NOx g/kWh

PMg/

kWh

Japan’03

Japan’05▲US’07

0.013

Japan’09?

1818

0 20 40 60 80 100

Tier 4 nonroad

Heavy-dutyhighway

Tier 2 Light-dutyhighway

$ Billion Annually in 2030

Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and VehiclesCosts & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles

costbenefit

Total Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion

1919

33%

67%

26%

74%30%

70%

CO/10 HC NOx0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Compared to 150 PPM SulfurPercent Increase

500 ppm 800 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Gasoline)(Gasoline)

Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards 2020

45%

94%

0%5%

16%

33%

HC NOx PM0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100% 350 ppm 500 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Diesel)(Diesel)

Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards


6

2121

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

PPMFuel Sulfur

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

gram

s/ki

lom

eter

PM

Em

issi

ons

Other PMSulfur

Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and PM EmissionsPM Emissions

Oxidation Catalyst

PM Filter

2222

Other Benefits from Sulfur ControlOther Benefits from Sulfur Control

• Sulfur reduction reduces SO2 emissions.– Less sulfate formation in the atmosphere (about 1/3

of SO2 reacts to sulfate)– Reduced acid rain.

• Sulfur reduction reduces engine wear.– Reduction from 2500 ppm to 500 ppm reduces engine

wear 10 - 20%; about 33% if starting out at 5000 ppm.– Greater engine wear with infrequent oil change.

• Retrofit Opportunities

2323

Introduce Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (


7

2525

Air Quality Needs Driving World Air Quality Needs Driving World to Ultrato Ultra--Low Sulfur DieselLow Sulfur Diesel

050

100150200250300350400450500

PPM

US

US 2

006

EU 2

000

EU 2

005

EU 2

005-

9

Denm

ark

Swed

en C

lass

1

Germ

any 2

003

Japa

n

Japa

n 20

04

Japa

n 20

05-7

Hong

Kon

g

Sout

h Ko

rea 2

006

Taip

ei, C

hina

200

7

Aust

ralia

200

6

Thai

land

2010

Sant

iago

, Chi

le 2

004

2626

Organo-metallic additives such as MMT are a cheap way to increase octane

Experience with these additives shows that they can cause

Health problems

Technical problems

Precautionary Principle Says Don’t Use Until and Unless Proven To Be Safe

Lesson 3: Be Very Cautious Regarding The Use of Metallic Fuel Additives

2727

Implications of Recent Health Studies

“The finding that manganese transport out of the brain occurs via the slow process of diffusion, rather than via carrier-mediated transport, is important: it suggests that no mechanism exists to protect the brain from accumulating manganese. This finding has important implications for neurotoxicity resulting from chronic manganese exposure.”

2828

Potential Impact of MMTPotential Impact of MMT


8

2929

ICCT Conclusions Regarding ICCT Conclusions Regarding MMTMMT

Consistent with the precautionary principle, the ICCT recommends that countries delay any use

of MMT in gasoline at this time, pending the outcome of ongoing health-based studies and

further review of the vehicle impacts.

Copies of the ICCT Report Available at http://www.cleantransportcouncil.org/index.php

3030

Lesson 4: Vehicles Which Do the Same Job Lesson 4: Vehicles Which Do the Same Job Should Meet Identical RequirementsShould Meet Identical Requirements

Light Duty Vehicle NOx Standards (g/km)Light Duty Vehicle NOx Standards (g/km)

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Tier

1

Tier

2 L

EV2

ULE

V2

SUL

EVJa

pan

Euro

3

Euro

4

PetrolDiesel

3131

SUVs Should Have Same SUVs Should Have Same Requirements As CarsRequirements As Cars

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Model Year

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4(grams/mile)NOx Standards

Cars/LDT1/2 LDT3/4 Combined

Tier 2 Standards

2.3

0.64

0.2 0.15

0.5 0.56

0.05

COHC

NOxHC + NOx

PM0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Grams/Kilometer

GasolineDiesel

2000

1

0.5

0.1 0.080.25 0.3

0.025

COHC

NOxHC + NOx

PM0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Grams/Kilometer

GasolineDiesel

2005

European Auto Standards

Diesels Should Have The Same Requirements As Gasoline Fueled Vehicles


9

3333

Lesson 5: Ignore Transportation and Lesson 5: Ignore Transportation and Land Use Planning At Your PerilLand Use Planning At Your Peril

3434

US Air Quality: Ozone and PM2.5 Present Significant Challenges

3535

Applying The Applying The Lessons To ChinaLessons To China

HARBIN

SHENYANG

TIANJIN

ÜRÜMQI

LANZHOUXI´AN SHANGHAI

WUHANCHENGDU

GUANGZHOU

LHASA

BEIJING

3636

Chinese Vehicle Population Growth Chinese Vehicle Population Growth Has Been Exploding (million)Has Been Exploding (million)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1993 1996 1999 20020

4

8

12Total Vehicle Private Vehicle Annual Growth

Rate 11.6%

Annual Growth Rate 23.0%


10

3737

Most Vehicles Are in Cities

3838

Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 19881988--20022002

E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls

3939

Modal Splits in Shanghai, Modal Splits in Shanghai, 19861986--20002000

38 31

7

19 33

27

12

5

15

3625

39

65

2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1986 1995 2000

步行自行车+助动车摩托汽车公交WalkBicycle+Light Duty Motorcycle

Motorcycle Car

Public Transit

Shift From Walking & Bicycling to Cars & Motorized Transit

4040

Vehicle Growth in Beijing is ExplodingVehicle Growth in Beijing is Exploding

北京机动车增长情况

0

100

200

300

400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006

年份

机动

车保

有量

（万

辆）

1st 1M for 48 years

2nd 1M for 6 years

3rd 1M for only 3 years?

Source: He Kebin


11

4141

Beijing November 2004

Shanghai November 2004

Pollution Shifting From Coal Based ToVehicle Based

4242

Weekly Average Concentration of PMWeekly Average Concentration of PM2.52.5 in Beijing: in Beijing: 19991999--20032003

0

100

200

300

400

9/24/9

9-9/30

11/11

-11/18

12/30

-1/6/0

0

2/17-2

/24

4/6-4/

13

5/25-6

/1

7/13-7

/20

8/31-9

/7

10/19

-10/26

12/7-

12/14

1/29-2

/8

3/22-3

/29

6/28-7

/5

9/13-9

/20

11/8-

11/15

12/27

-1/3/0

2

2/22-3

/1

4/12-4

/19

5/30-6

/6

7/25-8

/1

9/12-9

/19

11/3-

11/9

12/20

-12/27

2/14-2

/21

4/11-4

/18

6/20-6

/28

8/8-8/

15

9/26-1

0/3

11/15

-11/22

Date

PM

2.5 C

onc.

(µg.

m-3

)

CGZTHUCPMY

20001999 2001 2002 2003

4343

Figure 4

Emission Control forEmission Control for OnOn--road road LightLight--duty Vehicles in Chinaduty Vehicles in China

Projected4444

Emission Control forEmission Control for OnOn--road road HeavyHeavy--duty Diesel Enginesduty Diesel Engines

Projected


12

4545

US

US 20

06

EU 20

00

EU 20

05

EU 20

05-9

Japa

n 200

4

Japa

n 200

5-7

Hong

Kon

g

South

Kor

ea 20

06

Taipe

i, Chin

a 200

7

Austr

alia 2

006

Thail

and 2

010

Santi

ago,

Chile

2004

China

Nati

onal

China

Moto

r Fue

l

Some

Chin

a Citie

s

Beijin

g 200

50

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Diesel Fuel Sulfur RequirementsDiesel Fuel Sulfur RequirementsGasoline and Diesel Reformulation Costs Gasoline and Diesel Reformulation Costs

in Chinain China

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

05-2 Euro2 05-4 Euro3 10-7 Euro3 10-11 Euro4 10-12 Euro5

US

cent

s/ga

llon

Cost cents/gal gasolineCost cents/gal dieselTotal cost, cents/gal

Source: Dr. Yamaguchi

4747

Experience with MMT China: Blocked catalytic converter

After

33.000 km

Red Deposits of

Manganese-Oxide

Source: Schindler, VW 4848

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

6

8

10

12

14

16 第一阶段限值

第二阶段限值

一般 M1类车

ÓÍºÄ

(L/1

00km

)

整备质量（ kg）Curb Mass (Kg)

Phase IPhase IIExisting Models

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (L

/100

km)

China Fuel Consumption Standards –MT Cars

Phase I will be effective in July 2005

Phase II will be effective in July 2008


13

4949

China MustBreak TheViciousCircle

5050

ConclusionsConclusions

• Great Progress is Occurring Around the World in Reducing Vehicle Emissions

• Success Requires A Comprehensive Approach

• Serious Problems Remain & More Must Be Done

• Several Lessons Can Guide Future Progress

5151

Conclusions (2)Conclusions (2)Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

• Adopt A Comprehensive Strategy• Treat Vehicles and Fuels as A System

– Unleaded Gasoline Key To Clean Spark Ignition Vehicles– Near Zero Sulfur Fuels Key To Future Progress

• Very Clean Spark Ignition Cars• Very Clean Cars, Trucks & Buses• Possible Retrofits

• Avoid Metallic Additives Such as MMT Until Proven Safe• Vehicles Doing Same Job Should Meet The Same

Emissions Requirements– Cars & SUVs– Diesel & Gasoline

• Transportation & Land Use Planning Are Critical

5252

Conclusions (3)Conclusions (3)Lessons For ChinaLessons For China

• Move Rapidly To Near Zero Sulfur Fuels• Concurrently Leapfrog To “State of the Art”

Emissions Standards• Ban MMT Until Proven Safe• Build On Vehicle Fuel Economy Program• Expand Transportation and Land Use Planning• Expand Public Transportation (BRT) Systems

Documents

Motor Vehicle Pollution Overview The Lessons... · 2011. 5. 2. · China Fuel Economy Workshop Michael P. Walsh 1 1 Motor Vehicle Pollution Control: Lessons Learned Over The Past