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Morris County:
Demographic and
Economic Trends
Presentation to the Morris County Planning Board
January 16, 2020
164,371
261,620
383,454
407,630
421,361
470,212492,276
494,228
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2018
Morris County is Growing - Slowly
Population Trends, 1950 - 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
Population Estimates Program
2
6.6%
1.3%
0.4%
-5.7%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
Population Estimates Program
Nearly Half Of All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines
Percent Population Change: New Jersey Counties 2010 - 2018
3
11.0
10.4
9.9
9.59.3 9.2
9.49.5
9.4 9.5
9.2
12.9
12.5
12.112.0
11.7 11.6 11.611.5
11.611.4 11.4
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Morris County
New Jersey
The Birth Rate Has Been Dropping
Birth Rate per Thousand, 2008 - 2018 Morris County vs. New Jersey
Source: New Jersey Department of Health 4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
Population Estimates Program
Vital Events Net Migration
Population
Change
Natural
IncreaseBirths Deaths Total International Domestic
Morris
County1,914 7,734 38,576 30,842 -5,743 11,355 -17,098
New
Jersey 116,558 256,493 852,207 595,714 -140,088 302,522 -442,610
Population Growth Driven by International Migration
Components of Population Change 2010 – 2018
5
Where the Movers Are MovingCounty Migration
Flow to Morris County Flow from Morris County
Residence from… Residence to…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
2013 – 2017 ACS
Morris County 16,970 45.0% Morris County 16,970 40.3%
Essex County 1,754 4.7% Sussex County 1,468 3.5%
Passaic County 1,746 4.6% Passaic County 1,370 3.3%
Bergen County 1,504 4.0% Essex County 1,224 2.9%
Union County 1,304 3.5% Warren County 1,001 2.4%
Hudson County 1,140 3.0% Somerset County 998 2.4%
Other 13,271 35.2% Other 19,029 45.2%
6
Most Morris County Municipalities Lost Population Percent Population Change from 2010 to 2018
Source: U.S. Census
Bureau, Decennial
Census and Population
Estimates Program7
Population Becoming More Diverse
Morris County Population by Race & Hispanic Origin
2010 Census 2018 Census 2034 NJLWD
Percent of Total
Population
Percent of Total
Population
Percent of Total
Population
Not Hispanic or Latino
White 75.1% 70.5% 63.7%
Black or African
American 2.9% 3.4% 3.4%
Asian 8.9% 10.5% 14.0%
Other 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Two or more races 1.4% 1.7% 2.4%
Hispanic or Latino 11.5% 13.7% 16.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, American Community Survey,
and N.J. Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development 8
We Are Also Getting Older
1970 1980 1990 2000 20102018
28.1
31.935.2
37.8
41.342.7Median Age
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018
7.4%
8.8%
10.5%11.6%
13.8%
17.1%Population over Age 65
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census
and American Community Survey9
37.1%
44.6%
50.1%53.3% 54.3%
57.8%
38.2% 38.6% 38.2%35.3% 34.1% 32.7%
24.6%16.9%
11.6% 11.4% 11.6%9.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1-2 person household
3-4-person household
5 + person household
2018
2018
Changes in % Household Size
One & Two Person Households Are Dominant
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
American Community Survey
2018
10
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Housing Values Are Among the Highest in N.J.
Median Housing Value, 2018
11
Where Median Housing Values Are Highest and Lowest
Median Value – Owner Occupied Housing Units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community Survey
2014 – 2018 ACS
Municipality
Median
Value
Harding $1,059,800
Chatham Twp. $909,700
Mendham Twp. $858,100
Mountain Lakes $849,100
Chatham Boro. $739,100
Wharton $294,400
Mine Hill $294,300
Netcong $267,100
Dover $265,200
Victory Gardens $171,500
12
Housing Values Rebound for Many But Not AllChange in Median Value - Owner Occupied Housing Units
Source: 2009 - 2013 and
2014 - 2018 ACS
U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community
Survey
For the 2009 - 2013 ACS,
values greater than $1 million
were reported as $1,000,000+,
as a result, no comparison is
possible for Harding. 13
$1,478$1,456
$1,188
$848
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Rental Housing Costs are Among the Highest in N.J.
Median Contract Rent, 2018
14
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Household Income is Among the Highest in N.J.
Median Household Income, 2018
15
Source: United Way of Northern New Jersey
United Way’s “ALICE” in Morris County
16
Where Median Household Income is Highest and Lowest
Median Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
American Community Survey
2014 – 2018 ACS
Municipality
Median
Household
Income
Mountain Lakes $216,250
Chatham Twp. $182,619
Mendham Twp. $182,022
Chatham Boro. $169,524
Chester Twp. $160,625
Mount Olive $86,340
Dover $70,412
Wharton $69,271
Netcong $62,639
Victory Gardens $49,196
17
$29,194
$81,500
$216,400
$257,400
$444,100$469,900
$12,758 $26,626$56,273
$77,340$91,469
$112,288
7.38%
13.74%
10.13%
8.05%
4.69% 4.54%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Median Housing Value Median Household Income Interest Rate
2018
2018
2018
Housing Costs Have Risen Much Faster Than Income
Median Housing Value vs. Median Household Income in Morris County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
American Community Survey and FreddieMac
NOTE: Prior year incomes not
inflation adjusted.
Interest Rate: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate for
1970 is from 1972, earliest annual year data found18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Education Levels Are Among the Highest in the State
Percent Bachelor's Degree or Higher, 2018
19
3.3%
3.9%
2.3%2.5%
4.3%
5.0%
2.9%
3.3%3.9%
4.5%
3.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
NOV2017
DEC2017
JAN2018
FEB2018
MAR2018
APR2018
MAY2018
JUN2018
JUL2018
AUG2018
SEP2018
OCT2018
NOV2018
DEC2018
JAN2019
FEB2019
MAR2019
APR2019
MAY2019
JUN2019
JUL2019
AUG2019
SEP2019
OCT2019
NOV2019
Morris County
New Jersey
United States
Sources: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Dev. _U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment is Comparatively Low
Unemployment Rate, November 2017 – November 2019
20
Morris County Residents by
Occupation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
2000 2018
Management,Business,
Science,and Arts
Service
Salesand
Office
NaturalResources,
Construction,and Maintenance
Production, Transportation,
and MaterialMoving
6.7%
47.7%
10.1%
27.4
8.1%
Management,Business,
Science,and Arts
Service
Salesand
Office
NaturalResources,
Construction,and Maintenance
Production,Transportation,
and MaterialMoving
5.4%6.3%
54.4%
11.8%
22.1%
21
Much Anticipated Job Growth is in Lower Salary OccupationsNet New Jobs by Occupation (2016-2026)* and 2017 Average Salary
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers
Nursing Assistants
Janitors/Cleaners, Except Maids/Housekeeping
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Registered Nurses
Waiters and Waitresses
Laborers/Freight, Stock, and Material Movers
Food Prep/Serving Workers
Home Health Aides
Software Developers, Applications
Net New Jobs
* Top 10 Net Job OpeningsSource: NJLWD
$113,300
$23,300
$22,900
$29,100
$29,900
$84,400
$38,900
$31,300
$30,000
$30,000
22
38,817
36,878
28,478
24,410
21,334
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Professional andTechnicalServices
Health Care andSocial Assistance
Retail Trade Administrativeand WasteServices
Accommodationand FoodServices
$138,216 $62,608 $36,400 $56,264 $39,052
Top Private Sector Industries by Employment, 2018
Source:
NJLWD
Average
Annual
Wage
2018
23
5,3605,090
3,770
2,450 2,450
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Health Care and
Social Assistance
Professional,
Scientific, and
Technical Services
Accommodation
and Food Services
Construction Administrative and
Support and Waste
Mgmt/Remediation
Top Growth Industries by Projected Employment Increase
2016 - 2026
Source: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development24
-740
-970
-1,260-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0Government Information Manufacturing
Industries Projected to Decline in Employment
2016 - 2026
Source: N.J. Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development25
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
Population Estimates Program
Vital Events Net Migration
Population
Change
Natural
IncreaseBirths Deaths Total International Domestic
-3,835 23,778 99,501 75,723 -27,662 21,284 -48,946
New Jersey’s Population Down in 2019
Components of Population Change 2018 – 2019
26
NJ Total Population Dropped from 8,886,025 in 2018 to
8,882,190 in 2019 (-.04%)
Summary of Findings
Population Growing Slowly, Getting Older, More Diverse
International Migration Drops, Recent Driver of Population Growth
Highly Educated Workforce Results in High Incomes
Housing Value / Income Ratio Expanded Over Decades
Housing Costs Among Highest in State
Projected Job Growth in Low Paid Occupations
27