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MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

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Page 1: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

MORe Economic FactsWhat’s Being Said About the

Economy and Real Estate Today

Page 2: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

National Association of REALTORS®

Total existing home sales

increased 15.2% in from

June 2013

30-year conventional, fixed rate mortgage rose

to 4.07% in June from 3.54% in May and is the

highest since October 2011

Listing inventory

remains 7.6% below a year

ago

Page 3: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

National Association of REALTORS®

Distressed homes were 15% of June

sales, down from 18% in May and 26% in

June 2012

Existing home sales in the Midwest were

unchanged in June

at and are 17.5% higher than a year ago

Median time on market in

June was 37 days and is

47% faster than June 2012.

Short sales were on the market for a

median of 68 days

Page 4: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

National Association of REALTORS®

"Inventory conditions will continue to broadly favor sellers and contribute to above-normal price growth."

Median existing home price was

$214,300 in June

up 13.5% from June 2012

16 consecutive

months of year-over-year price increases

NAR June Pending Home Sales Report

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

Page 5: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Illinois Association of REALTORS®

June marks 24 consecutive months of Illinois home sale increases.

Illinois home sales increased 14.9% in June over June 2012; statewide sales totaled 15,268 up 13,286 in June 2012

Median price increased 9.7% to $170,000 from June 2012

Page 6: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Illinois Association of REALTORS®Chicagoland PMSA Info

It took 63 days on average to sell a home down from 84 days in

June 2012.

The sales inventory dropped 37.4% from a year ago to

38,082 unitsHome sales (single-

family and condominiums) in June

totaled 11,103 homes sold, up

18.7% from June 2012

median price in June 2013 was $206,000 in

the Chicago PMSA, up 13.2% from $182,000 in

June 2012

See IAR Talking Points Exclusive to IAR Members

Page 7: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Illinois Association of REALTORS®

See IAR Talking Points Exclusive to IAR Members

"To have this extended run of year-over-year sales gains

shows that the housing market in Illinois is indeed recovering," said Michael Oldenettel, CRS,

GRI, president of IAR.

Page 8: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

U of I Housing Price Forecast

"The rising house prices suggest some significant movements

toward a more stable housing market," noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications

Laboratory of the University of Illinois.

"New analysis of the foreclosure process suggests that a return to pre-recession levels should occur early next year, further

enhancing the housing recovery."

Median price for the Chicagoland PMSA

for July-Sept. is expected to rise by 18.3% in

July, 20.3% for Aug. and 20.2% in Sept.

Page 9: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

U of I Housing Price Forecast

Sales forecast point to

increases between 20.5% to 27.7% for

Chicago PMSA

For July, August, and September in the Chicagoland PMSA….

Pending sales figure is 209.5,

down 4.8% from

last month and up 31.8% from a

year ago.

In June, 2,181 houses were

newly filed for foreclosures in

Chicago PMSA (65.9% down from a

year ago.)

Page 10: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

increased to 81.4, the highest level since January

2008

Housing inventory reached its lowest recorded level since 2008, with 65,658 for Illinois and 38,082 for Chicago

PMSA

U of I Housing Price Forecast

Illinois has 5.0 months worth of inventory and

Chicago PMSA has 3.5 months of inventory

Homes between $300k

and $500k required the shortest

time to sale, 50 days for Illinois and 46 days

for Chicago PMSA

Homes priced above

$700k experienced 64 days on market

Page 12: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®

Sales of single-family, detached homes in suburban Chicago increased 17.7% in June (based on year over year stats)

Median sales price for detached homes increased 9.5% from June a year ago

Detached homes under contract increased 36.5% in June

Page 13: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®

"A slow and steady growth in home prices, combined with

more properties coming on the market, is creating ideal conditions for both buyers and sellers," said Tonya Corder, president

of MORe. "Buyers especially should look to act soon to lock in today's low interest rates."

Page 14: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

DuPage County

Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®

Median home sale price was

up 6.5% to $245,000

Lake County

Sales were up 17.2% to 1,062

Median sale price was up

11.9% to $235,000

Sales were up 24.2% to1,495

Cook County

Sales were up 14.8% to 5,938

Median home sale price was up 16.7% to

$210,000June Home Sales

Page 15: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

National Association of Home Builders

"Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale

continues to tighten," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

Page 16: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

National Association of Home Builders

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family

homes rose 6 points to 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July.

Sales of newly built single-family

homes surged 8.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

497,000 units

Their fastest pace in the last five years!

Page 17: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Fannie Mae

We are keeping a very close eye on the effect of rising mortgage rates on the housing market and the economy, but our July forecast is little changed from last month," said Fannie Mae

Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "We continue to see growth in housing partly due to an increase

in existing home sales as buyers choose to act while rates remain near historic lows."

May Fannie Mae news release

Potential homebuyers may enter the purchase

market sooner rather than later as more Americans expect mortgage rates and home

prices to climb

Page 18: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Fannie Mae June 2013 National Housing Survey

The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up during the next 12 months jumped 11 percentage points to 57%, the highest level in the survey's three-year history

The share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next year also hit a survey high of 57%

72% say now is a good time to buy and 36% say it is a good time to sell

The share who expect their personal financial situation to improve during the next year climbed to 46%, the highest level since June 2010

Page 19: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Freddie Mac

The blistering pace in house price

appreciation is unlikely to continue, but rather moderate and grow at a

seasonally adjusted rate closer to 3 to 4 percent in the second half of the year,

for a total gain of 8 to 9 percent for the calendar year.

Over the next couple of years,

house price growth should gradually ease until settling in at

around 3 percent a year.

In addition, housing starts fell in June to the slowest pace since

August 2012.

Page 20: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgages were up a full

percentage point between the start of this year and the middle of May, and it's likely to rise further in the coming year

Through May, home sales were on their best first-half pace since 2007

In the second half of the year, we anticipate more modest growth with sales (new and existing) up an additional 2% and starts up 12% relative to the first half

Page 21: MORe Economic Facts What’s Being Said About the Economy and Real Estate Today

Freddie Mac

Indications of a slowing in the economic recovery also placed downward pressure on mortgage rates

Consumer sentiment fell to a three month low in July while retail sales in June grew by only 0.4%, which was half of the market consensus forecast