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Woods Hole Research CenterWoods Hole Research CenterOCTOBER 2019OCTOBER 2019

MONTHLY NEWSLETTERMONTHLY NEWSLETTER

New Arctic carbon campaign to expand permafrost science, inform international policyby Miles Grant

With initial funding from a new $2.4 million grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, WHRC is launching a major campaign to gain new understanding on how quickly permafrost regions are changing and what that means for global climate projections.

The Arctic Carbon Monitoring and Prediction System is being launched in conjunction with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and will deliver crucial new research to inform upcoming international climate negotiations. WHRC will lead the scientific aspects of the work, with the Arctic Initiative at the Belfer Center overseeing the policy components.

The first steps in expanding WHRC’s Arctic monitoring took place this year in Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta when scientists installed two new flux towers, which monitor the exchange rates of trace gases, funded in part by the Moore Foundation’s grant. The first was installed during the summer 2019 Polaris Project expedition and the second was installed during a follow-up trip by WHRC scientists this month. The towers will measure carbon uptake by plants and emissions from plants and soils, including from thawing permafrost, sending real-time data via satellite back to WHRC’s Falmouth campus.

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So far 2019 has been a blockbuster year for extreme weather in the U.S. and elsewhere around the northern hemisphere. January brought an intense “polar vortex” to the Midwest, marked by persistent, record-breaking cold, along with near-record snowfalls in the Sierra Nevada and parts of the Rockies. Spring unfolded with a pair of floods in the mid-Atlantic region along with intense “bomb cyclones” exploding over the U.S. heartland, resulting in catastrophic flooding. Adding insult to injury was a prolonged spate of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the same region, leaving many farmers unable to plant their submerged fields. Summer unleashed record-breaking heatwaves in the southeast United States, Europe, and Alaska that fueled wildfires and the second largest melt of Greenland’s ice sheet. As hurricane season fired up, we watched in horror as Cat-5 Dorian threatened the east coast of Florida with “the big one,” but instead stalled over the northern Bahamas, wreaking destruction like an atomic bomb. Rare tornadoes ripped through Cape Cod in August, and nascent tropical storm Imelda—barely noticed in headlines—inundated the Houston area, still recovering from the wrath of Harvey, with over three feet of rain. A winter-like September storm brought over 40 inches of snow to parts of Montana, breaking yet more records. Extreme weather happens, but this year has been freakish by any metric. Will this rash of events continue through the coming winter?

Predicting how weather might behave a season in advance is challenging, but some factors tip the odds toward particular weather regimes in certain areas. Traditionally the existence of El Niño or La Niña—a large-scale temperature pattern in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—has been a useful predictor, but new studies suggest that it has become less reliable in recent decades as

An “interesting” winter shaping upDr. Jennifer FrancisWHRC Senior Scientist

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other climate-change-related factors have started exerting their influence. Some ominous signals are already hinting that the coming winter may continue 2019’s long list of “interesting” weather events. Here’s what we’re watching:

The "Warm Blob": During the winter of 2014, a large area of much-above-normal ocean temperatures formed in the eastern N. Pacific, causing a major disruption in marine life along the U.S. west coast along with prolonged weather conditions across the country—warm and dry in the west, cold and stormy in the east. The Blob was caused by a very persistent area of high pressure—dubbed the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge—that weakened winds in the region and allowed surface waters to warm. Recent studies suggest that the increased tendency for these strong ridges off the west coast may be boosted by the extensive loss of Arctic sea ice around Alaska. Now we are seeing a reincarnation of this ocean feature, which again appears to be juiced by a ridiculously resilient ridge in the eastern North Pacific. While the warm water does not yet extend to the depths of the 2014 event, all eyes are watching the evolution of this Blob. If it persists and intensifies, we may see an unusually wavy jet stream develop over North America, along with the extreme weather it tends to create—brutal cold, winter heatwaves, and intense storms. And if the right pattern for nor’easters sets up along the east coast, they’ll have plenty of energy to draw from the unusually warm ocean waters parked along the Atlantic seaboard.

Another banner ice-loss year in the Arctic: The minimum extent of Arctic sea ice during summer of 2019 came close to breaking the all-time record low set in 2012. Instead it tied with 2007 and 2016 for second place. The areas with greatest losses

occurred north of Siberia and Alaska, setting the stage for likely impacts on the jet stream. Besides the effects on North American winters already mentioned, the region east of Scandinavia has been fingered as having a special relationship with the stratospheric polar vortex, a ring of strong westerly winds that blow only during winter about 30 miles up in the atmosphere. New studies suggest that when sea ice disappears in this region, the chances of disrupting the vortex increase, which inevitably triggers a winter of extreme weather events all around the northern hemisphere. One of these disruptions was responsible for the Midwest’s deep freeze last January, along with heavy snows in western mountain ranges.

What to watch: Two precursors to a vortex disruption are a strong high-pressure ridge over the Ural Mountains of Russia together with an unusually extensive snowfall over northern Siberia during October and November. This amplified ridge/trough couplet in the jet stream generates wave energy that can travel upward and disturb the vortex, like bumping a spinning top. All meteorological eyes will be watching for these features to unfold—or not. An excellent resource for weather geeks to keep track of this weather connection is the weekly blog by my colleague, Dr. Judah Cohen of AER, Inc.

While the details remain elusive as to what sorts of extreme weather will be unleashed on whom, all indications point to another wild winter on tap for the northern hemisphere. My money is on a mostly warm/dry western U.S. along with a mostly cold and stormy east, but Mother Nature may have new surprises up her sleeves. One thing is clear: our definition of “normal” may need a total reboot.

From Alaska to Siberia, permafrost holds significantly more carbon than has ever been released by humans. As rising temperatures thaw permafrost, the resulting carbon release has potentially disastrous consequences for accelerating climate change. But thawing permafrost carbon had not yet been included in the models and reports that inform international climate policy by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“As we look ahead to the next generation of global climate progress, there’s an urgent need to collect the best data on Arctic carbon emissions and turn that into sound policy,” said Dr. Sue Natali, WHRC Arctic Program Director, and Director of The Polaris Project.

WHRC’s Arctic Carbon Monitoring and Prediction System will include:• Field research to understand the processes driving emissions

from permafrost thaw and wildfire, as well as monitoring in under-sampled regions to allow scaling of observations across the Arctic.

• Remote sensing to scale up field-based observations to the full Arctic region. This capability will also deliver near-real-time estimates of wildfire-burned areas across the Arctic, measuring plots down to the size of a baseball diamond, as well as estimating burn depth and carbon emissions.

• Modeling to evaluate the implications of Arctic permafrost emissions for global climate policy.

• Development of an interactive and visual web platform to communicate Arctic change to the public, policy-makers and Arctic residents.

The Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center will include:

• Convening policymakers and scientists, at venues such as the Arctic Research Forum and Harvard University, to understand ongoing efforts, gaps and opportunities regarding permafrost thaw on the global climate.

• Communicating findings to policy-makers and opinion leaders in key nations and the Arctic Council.

• A link to Harvard teaching and fellowship programs to help train a new generation of Arctic policy leaders.

WHRC will continue to seek sponsoring partners for the Arctic Carbon campaign to help deliver the funding necessary to support this critical climate research. To learn more about supporting this initiative, contact Beth Brazil at bbrazil@whrc.org or 508-444-1549.

UN convenes scientists to discuss international Amazon conservation strategyby Miles Grant

Icelandic Prime Minister says climate change demands urgent policy actionby Dave McGlinchey

A United Nations Foundation-convened meeting of the world’s top Amazon scientists is leading to new international commitments to support forest protection—and more progress could follow at December’s UNFCCC

During an event organized by WHRC last month in New York City, Icelandic Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir called on world leaders to pay attention to a recent United Nations report on the rapidly warming cryosphere, or the frozen areas of the earth.

“This report is built on the science we need to guide us in adapting to a changing environment and most importantly to avert a planetary disaster,” Jakobsdóttir said about the Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere, issued in late September by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The findings of the new IPCC report needs to be known—and not only known but understood—by me and all of my colleagues in governments and politics around the world.”

Jakobsdóttir was in New York for Climate Week and the United Nations General Assembly.

The IPCC report was released in Monaco on the morning of Sept 25, and WHRC helped convened a panel to discuss the report that evening in New York. The event

international climate talks. WHRC scientist Dr. Paulo Brando, WHRC board member and IPAM Amazônia Executive Director André Guimarães and WHRC board member Dr. Thomas Lovejoy were among those taking part

in the September 21 meeting in New York City ahead of Climate Week. International support came fast, France immediately committed $100 million to the effort.

The scientists came together to support what’s being called the Leticia Pact, an agreement signed by seven Amazonian countries in Septem-ber to protect the world’s largest tropi-cal forest through disaster response coordination and

was hosted by WHRC, the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, and the United Nations Foundation.

The panel included three report authors, Dr. Rob DeConto from the University of Massachusetts, Dr. Ben Orlove from Columbia University, and Dr. Michael Oppenheimer from Princeton University, as well as WHRC scientists Dr. Max Holmes and Dr. Jennifer Francis. WHRC President Dr. Philip Duffy moderated the event, who told Jakobsdóttir that if all heads of state were “were as well informed as you, and as open to science-based policies, then we wouldn’t need to be here.”

The report said that climate change “has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers, reductions in snow cover and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, and increased permafrost temperature.”

Jakobsdóttir told the crowd that “scientists counted over 300 glaciers in Iceland in the year 2000, and 17 years later 56 of them were gone. This is a countdown to disaster.”

satellite monitoring. Global attention was refocused on Amazon deforestation this summer when fires surged, particularly in Brazil. WHRC and IPAM Amazônia scientists estimated that, through August 14, this year’s Brazilian Amazon fires produced 104 to 141 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to WHRC, equivalent to annual tailpipe carbon pollution from 23 to 31 million cars, or the annual CO2 emissions from the entire state of North Carolina. The Amazon has already lost 800,000 square kilometers of forest, an area equivalent to 10 percent of the continental United States, much of it to intentional burning to clear land for agriculture.

“The purpose of our meeting was to begin creating scientific strategy to show the world why Amazon conservation is so important,” Dr. Brando said. “Stronger international Amazon science reports could help countries to prioritize Amazon conservation and engage countries who are not currently doing their share.”

“We need to listen to science, and we need to act based on science, and the stakes could not be higher,” she said. “If we humans can have such a dramatic impact on the life of this plane then it is also within our powers to change course. We can accelerate the ongoing change toward clean energy, we can plant trees instead of burning forests, we can use nature-based solutions to soak up carbon from the atmosphere. The solutions are within our reach, and it is the work of politicians to grab them and to use them. We should listen to the message of science.”

Study uses landmark data technique to identify permafrost cratersby Miles Grant

WHRC scientists are launching a new study that will use cutting-edge new geospatial data to identify methane craters in Siberia.

The craters, often around 50 meters in diameter, are created when thawing permafrost causes the ground to bubble up, explode, then fill in with water. Discovery of the craters—a shockingly visual representation of climate change—has caused a major stir in the scientific community in the last few years, but little is known about them so far.

“The amount of methane released isn’t massive, but what’s important is that these craters were totally unpredicted. The first time I heard about the craters, I couldn’t even believe they were real. These changes are telling us that climate change is impacting this whole system. It’s not functioning in the way we've known it to function,” said Dr. Sue Natali, WHRC’s Arctic Program Director.

Scientists do not know how many permafrost craters there are, with just a handful being identified so far on Siberia’s Yamal and Gyda Peninsulas. The size of the Siberian permafrost region makes finding them a daunting task, but new data can help.

The study will rely on new elevation data of the Arctic produced by the Polar Geospatial Center at the University of Minnesota. The data set that covers the study area is a massive 7 terabytes—for comparison, it would take the Hubble Space Telescope more than 8 months to produce that much data. The elevation data is derived from high-resolution (2 meters) stereo paired optical imagery

from the WorldView collection of satellites. Researchers will use the data along with a collection of many other metrics to map and model possible locations of craters on the Yamal and Gyda Peninsulas. Volunteers will help to validate the results by looking at satellite photos of mapped hotspots.

“Before this data came along, there was no other way to accurately analyze this much territory in such detail. It just wouldn’t be possible,” said WHRC Senior Geospatial Analyst Greg Fiske. “What’s exciting is that if our method has success, it will lay the groundwork—by establishing the necessary data preparation, methodology, computing infrastructure, and human relationships needed—to apply these data

processing approaches to geomorphic change across the entire Arctic.”

Researchers will also rely on satellites from the mapping company Planet. If the team identifies likely craters, they will go to Siberia to study them up close, in partnership with local Russian scientific collaborators. This team also hopes to be able to characterize landscape features that may develop craters and other large-scale landscape changes prior to and just after formation, which can lead to the development of a method to detect them before they form.

The study is supported by a grant from the Heising-Simons Foundation, as well as a grant from NASA.

WHRC presents the inaugural Kaneb Speaker Series, generously supported by the Kaneb family. This new series is dedicated to furthering public understanding of global climate change and the impacts of our rapidly changing climate.

Programs will highlight WHRC scientists and collaborators on a range of critical and timely topics including extreme weather, climate risk to capital markets, and the race to save the Amazon.

Series kickoff on November 13, 5-7:30 pmAmazon on Fire

State Room, 60 State St 33rd Floor, Boston, MA 02109RSVP at whrc.org/amazon-on-fire

Hear from leading experts on the front lines about why the Amazon fires are burning and how they impact global climate. Learn about our audacious approach to end deforestation in the Amazon and prevent future fires.

Future programs will be held in Boston, New York, Washington DC, Denver, and San Francisco.

Thawing permafrost turns Arctic from carbon sink into carbon emitter, study finds. The Independent (UK) quotes Sue Natali and Jennifer Watts. October 22

We could have a huge permafrost problem. Washington Examiner quotes Sue Natali and Jennifer Watts. October 22

Opinion: Don’t exacerbate climate change; protect the Arctic Refuge. Colorado Sun op-ed by Board Member John Le Coq mentions WHRC and Science on the Fly. October 22

Religious leaders bring moral voice to climate change. Barnstable Patriot previews Saturday’s forum featuring Phil Duffy at St. Christopher’s Church in Chatham. October 20

Amazon Watch: What Happens When the Forest Disappears? Yale Environment 360 quotes Michael Coe. October 17

Ani’s Alaskan Awakening. The Times Record (Brunswick, ME) columnist recaps Anneka Williams’ time with The Polaris Project. October 11

The Seas Are Rising - And So Are They. Vogue quotes Jennifer Francis from an interview at Climate Week NYC. October 4

Experts urge “full speed ahead” on climate action. MIT News covers panel discussion featuring Phil Duffy. October 3

Red flags rise on global warming and the seas. Harvard Gazette interviews Senior Adviser John Holdren. October 2

Boston Next: Developers And City Planners Bracing For Climate Change. CBS Boston’s Boston Next features Spencer Glendon and Zach Zobel. September 26

U.N. Scientists Say They Underestimated the Rate at Which the Climate is Changing. WCAI quotes Max Holmes. September 26

What an ice-free Arctic really means, and why it matters so much. CBC (Canada) quotes Jennifer Francis. September 25

Up in smoke: Are bushfires cancelling the benefits of carbon offsets? PS News (Australia) quotes Paulo Brando. September 23

Falmouth Takes Part in International Climate Strike. Falmouth Enterprise quotes Sue Natali and George Woodwell. September 20

The biggest Arctic expedition in history is launching for the North Pole. Washington Post quotes Jennifer Francis, who was involved in developing the science plans for the project. September 18

Deforestation Intensifies Warming in the Amazon Rain Forest. Scientific American quotes Paulo Brando. September 18

Climate Matters: How New England is being impacted by our changing climate. Boston 25 News features an interview with Jennifer Francis. September 17

Amazon fish species at risk if fires destroy river habitat. National Geographic quotes Paulo Brando and Marcia Macedo. September 15

How to stop fires in the Amazon and protect our climate. Op-ed by Michael Coe and IPAM Amazônia’s Ane Alencar in The Hill. September 12

AllianceBernstein sends staff to climate school. Financial Times mentions WHRC’s partnership with Wellington and CalPERS. September 11

In the news : highlightsInstallation of a second flux tower in Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta took place this month.

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Natalie Baillargeon was a return member of WHRC’s 2019 Polaris Project team and is a junior at Smith College.

“Going into the expedition, I had carefully outlined my research plan, and it left me some extra time to help other students with their projects. ... Every time I helped out another student, I learned something new. In this photo, I’m recording data for my teammate Henry Henson, whose project focused on how permafrost thaw and ground slumping impact methane release from sediments in the lake in the form of bubbling.”

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