15
JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights September 2019 Summary Table of Contents 1716 W. Adams Phoenix, AZ 85007 Phone: (602) 926-5491 www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm This report has been prepared for the Arizona Legislature by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee Staff on September 20, 2019. "Year-to- date…FY 2020 General Fund revenues are 6.4% above the prior year and are $58.6 million above the enacted budget forecast." Summary August Revenues ....................................................2 Monthly Indicators ..................................................4 JLBC/JCCR Meeting Follow-Up.............................7 Summary of Recent Agency Reports ADOA – Vehicle Maintenance Savings ..........7 AHCCCS – FY 2019 Hospital Assessment .........7 DCS – Foster Care and Medicaid.....................7 DES – Coolidge Campus Placements .............8 DES – DD Provider Rate Increase ......................8 DEQ – WQARF Spending Report .......................8 DEQ – WQARF Progress Report ........................ 8 Homeland Security – Funding Report ............. 8 DPS – Border Strike Task Force .......................... 9 Supreme Court – Automation Report ............. 9 ABOR – College Credit By Exam .................... 10 ABOR – Report On Cost Containment. ........ 10 August Spending .................................................. 11 Arizona Economic Trends .................. Appendix A August 2019 revenue collections totaled $816.6 million, which is an increase of 1.9% above the prior year. General Fund revenues during August were $19.1 million above the enacted budget forecast. The modest August performance was a combination of strong growth in Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax offset by technical losses in other revenue categories. Sales Tax posted another healthy month of collections, growing by 7.6% and exceeding the enacted budget forecast by $13.1 million. The category experienced growth in most of the main subcategories, such as retail, contracting and restaurant/bar. Individual Income Tax ((IT) revenues increased by 6.2% during August, which resulted in a forecast gain of $3.2 million for that category. As noted above, however, the state saw revenue declines in other categories for technical reasons. Due to a timing issue related to quarterly payments, Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) declined significantly from the prior year. IPT quarterly tax payments are typically processed during August, but the deposit of most of these payments did not occur until early September. Because of this timing shift, these reported August IPT losses are expected to be recouped in September. The state's bottom-line General Fund revenue growth is also impacted by budgeted fund transfers. During this August the state collected no transfers, while $12.7 million were received in August 2018, which pushed down the state's overall growth rate. Year-to-date through August, excluding Urban Revenue Sharing and fund transfers, FY 2020 General Fund revenues are 6.4% above the prior year and are $58.6 million above the enacted budget forecast. The operating fund balance consists of the General Fund and certain dedicated funds. The operating balance as of mid-September 2019 is $1.69 billion. In addition, the state Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) currently has a balance of $1.02 billion.

Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

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Page 1: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights September 2019

Summary

Table of Contents

1716 W. Adams Phoenix, AZ 85007 Phone: (602) 926-5491

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

This report has been prepared for the Arizona Legislature by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee Staff on September 20, 2019.

"Year-to-

date…FY 2020

General Fund

revenues are

6.4% above

the prior year

and are $58.6

million above

the enacted

budget

forecast."

Summary August Revenues ....................................................2

Monthly Indicators ..................................................4

JLBC/JCCR Meeting Follow-Up .............................7

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

• ADOA – Vehicle Maintenance Savings ..........7

• AHCCCS – FY 2019 Hospital Assessment .........7

• DCS – Foster Care and Medicaid.....................7

• DES – Coolidge Campus Placements .............8

• DES – DD Provider Rate Increase ......................8

• DEQ – WQARF Spending Report .......................8

• DEQ – WQARF Progress Report ........................ 8

• Homeland Security – Funding Report ............. 8

• DPS – Border Strike Task Force .......................... 9

• Supreme Court – Automation Report ............. 9

• ABOR – College Credit By Exam .................... 10

• ABOR – Report On Cost Containment. ........ 10

August Spending .................................................. 11

Arizona Economic Trends .................. Appendix A

August 2019 revenue collections totaled $816.6 million, which is an increase of 1.9% above the prior year. General Fund revenues during August were $19.1 million above the enacted budget forecast. The modest August performance was a combination of strong growth in Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax offset by technical losses in other revenue categories. Sales Tax posted another healthy month of collections, growing by 7.6% and exceeding the enacted budget forecast by $13.1 million. The category experienced growth in most of the main subcategories, such as retail, contracting and restaurant/bar. Individual Income Tax ((IT) revenues increased by 6.2% during August, which resulted in a forecast gain of $3.2 million for that category. As noted above, however, the state saw revenue declines in other categories for technical reasons. Due to a timing issue related to quarterly payments, Insurance Premium Tax (IPT) declined significantly from the prior year. IPT quarterly tax payments are typically processed during August, but the deposit of most of these payments did not occur until early September. Because of this timing shift, these reported August IPT losses are expected to be recouped in September.

The state's bottom-line General Fund revenue growth is also impacted by budgeted fund transfers. During this August the state collected no transfers, while $12.7 million were received in August 2018, which pushed down the state's overall growth rate. Year-to-date through August, excluding Urban Revenue Sharing and fund transfers, FY 2020 General Fund revenues are 6.4% above the prior year and are $58.6 million above the enacted budget forecast. The operating fund balance consists of the General Fund and certain dedicated funds. The operating balance as of mid-September 2019 is $1.69 billion. In addition, the state Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) currently has a balance of $1.02 billion.

Page 2: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

2 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

August Revenues

Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

FY 2020 Collections

Difference From Budget Forecast

Difference From FY 2019

August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3

Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year and $13.1 million above the forecast for the month. Year to date, collections are up by 6.8% and exceed the forecast by $19.0 million. Sales tax collections by category for August are shown in Table 2. The 5 major categories of the state’s sales tax shown in the table account for approximately 90% of total collections. As shown in Table 2 below, all sales tax categories except for utilities (electricity, natural gas, and water) continued to perform well in August relative to the same month in the prior year.

Table 2 Sales Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year

August YTD Retail 8.1% 6.9% Contracting 17.9% 16.1% Use 12.8% 21.5% Restaurant & Bar 6.6% 6.5% Utilities (5.3)% (7.7)%

Individual Income Tax net revenues of $389.0 million in August were 6.2% above August of last year and $3.2 million above the forecast for the month. Year to date, net collections are up by 9.6% and are $31.9 million above forecast. As indicated in Table 3, August withholding revenues of $373.5 million were 4.2% above last year and $(5.9) million below the forecast. August estimated and final payments of $32.8 million were 34.0% above the prior year and $8.6 million above forecast. August refunds totaled $(17.3) million, which is slightly more than last year. With a forecasted refund level of $(17.7) million, the lower level of actual refunds produced a forecast gain of $0.4 million.

Table 3 Individual Income Tax Growth Rates

Compared to Prior Year August YTD Withholding 4.2% 7.7% Estimated/Final Payments 34.0% 31.3% Refunds 3.2% 1.4%

Corporate Income Tax net revenue was $5.0 million in August, which was $(9.1) million less than the prior year. Net collections in August were $(0.2) million below the forecast. Year to date, net collections are down by (5.9)%, or $(2.5) million, relative to the same period in the prior year. Year-to-date revenue is $8.5 million above forecast. Insurance Premium Tax net collections were $7.1 million in August, $(37.4) million less or (84.0)% lower than the same month last year. It was also $(4.3) million below forecast. This month's decrease in revenues was caused by a delayed recording of a significant amount of August payments. In August, tobacco tax revenues were $1.6 million. This amount is $(0.2) million below the prior year and $(0.1) million below the forecast. Liquor tax collections during the month were $2.4 million. This amount is $0.1 million and $(0.1) million above forecast. The Lottery Commission reports that August ticket sales were $78.7 million, which is 1.8 million, or 2.4% above sales in August 2018. Year-to-date, ticket sales are $158.6 million, or (1.4)% below sales in the prior year. In August, the Lottery Commission transferred $20.0 million to the General Fund as part of its preliminary year-end audit of FY 2019 profit transfers. While these revenues are the result of FY 2019 ticket sales, they will be recorded as FY 2020 General Fund revenue. In addition, the Lottery Commission indicated it has completed its FY 2019 accounting and expects to transfer additional monies to the General Fund during September. Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $115.2 million in August were down by (4.5)% compared to August of last year and were $(7.2) million below forecast. Year-to-date, collections have increased by 2.0% above the prior year and are $(2.4) million below forecast. Due to delays in reporting final July revenues for various revenues sources, DOR has made technical adjustments to prior month collection figures. For August, DOR has increased the amount of prior General Fund revenue collections by $42,200, and the adjustment has been included in the reported year-to-date results.

Page 3: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

3 Table 4

General Fund Revenue: Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast

August 2019

Actual ActualAugust 2019 Amount Amount August 2019 Amount Amount

Taxes Sales and Use $436,717,097 $30,690,233 7.6 % $13,082,832 3.1 % $872,752,888 $55,901,034 6.8 % $19,020,789 2.2 % Income - Individual 388,989,426 22,698,613 6.2 3,153,179 0.8 835,167,018 72,816,391 9.6 31,941,103 4.0 - Corporate 5,047,343 (9,088,242) (64.3) (212,131) (4.0) 40,337,425 (2,539,640) (5.9) 8,530,011 26.8

Property 519,554 381,039 275.1 392,407 308.6 1,596,882 343,727 27.4 1,053,671 194.0 Luxury - Tobacco 1,633,575 (162,120) (9.0) (129,108) (7.3) 3,884,444 129,160 3.4 484,392 14.2 - Liquor 2,357,156 70,888 3.1 (61,530) (2.5) 5,392,492 22,773 0.4 (184,852) (3.3) Insurance Premium 7,137,164 (37,359,360) (84.0) (4,294,869) (37.6) 46,073,971 (40,396,205) (46.7) (7,980,122) (14.8) Other Taxes 2,909,572 2,150,229 283.2 2,132,018 274.2 3,710,119 2,107,151 131.5 1,981,886 114.7

Sub-Total Taxes $845,310,886 $9,381,281 1.1 % $14,062,798 1.7 % $1,808,915,240 $88,384,391 5.1 % $54,846,878 3.1 %

Other Revenue Lottery 20,000,000 20,000,000 -- (1,875,500) (8.6) 20,000,000 20,000,000 -- (1,875,500) (8.6) License, Fees and Permits 3,236,968 361,591 12.6 291,467 9.9 6,926,054 543,753 8.5 1,671,751 31.8 Interest (14,336) (1,357,442) -- (14,336) N/A (9,670) (1,561,613) (100.6) (104,383) (110.2) Sales and Services 1,512,650 312,890 26.1 178,332 13.4 2,576,385 38,505 1.5 231,904 9.9 Other Miscellaneous 2,149,249 2,643,182 -- 2,009,026 -- 1,182,963 1,549,350 (422.9) 673,564 132.2 Disproport ionate Share 0 0 -- 0 -- 0 0 -- 0 -- Transfers and Reimbursements 5,901,077 1,604,343 37.3 4,424,014 299.5 6,535,782 2,011,100 44.4 3,205,705 96.3

Sub-Total Other Revenue $32,785,608 $23,564,564 255.6 % $5,013,003 18.1 % $37,211,513 $22,581,095 154.3 % $3,803,040 11.4 %

TOTAL BASE REVENUE $878,096,494 $32,945,845 3.9 % $19,075,801 2.2 % $1,846,126,753 $110,965,486 6.4 % $58,649,918 3.3 %

Other Adjustments Urban Revenue Sharing (61,463,432) (5,229,729) 9.3 (0) 0.0 (122,926,864) (10,459,457) 9.3 (0) 0.0 One-Time Transfers 0 (12,705,056) -- 0 -- 0 (94,158,056) -- 0 -- Public Safety Transfers 0 0 -- 0 -- 0 0 -- 0 --

Sub-Total Other Adjustments (61,463,432) (17,934,785) 41.2 % (0) 0.0 % (122,926,864) (104,617,514) 571.4 % (0) 0.0 %

TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE $816,633,062 $15,011,060 1.9 % $19,075,801 2.4 % $1,723,199,889 $6,347,973 0.4 % $58,649,918 3.5 %

Non-General Funds

Highway User Revenue Fund 115,207,101 (5,473,878) (4.5) % (7,186,883) (5.9) % 246,934,731 4,797,955 2.0 % (2,412,077) (1.0) %

Current Month FY 2020 YTD (Two Months)Change From Change from

August 2018 Budget Forecast August 2018 Budget ForecastPercent Percent Percent Percent

Page 4: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

4 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Monthly Indicators

NATIONAL According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis' second or "preliminary" estimate, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019 compared to 3.1% in the prior quarter. This revised second quarter estimate was (0.1)% below the preceding advance estimate due to decreases in residential investment, inventory investment, and net exports. The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current conditions, as well as their expectations 6 months into the future. The index decreased slightly by (0.5)%, or (0.7) points, from July's revised 135.8 to 135.1 in August. The index was helped by consumers continuing to have a positive view of current economic conditions. However, the data did show consumer's expectations about the economy in the future may be getting more pessimistic. The job market was the main reason for the index's continued strong performance in August. The labor index, which is calculated as the percentage of respondents who think that jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who think that jobs are difficult to find, increased by 6.3 points, or 19.0%, in August to a net value of 39.4, the highest value since early 2001. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index increased by 0.2% from June to July. Compared to July 2018, the overall price index is up by 1.4%. The "core" PCE price index excludes food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation measure. This core index increased year over year by 1.6% in July, which continues to fall below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0%. Consumer prices are also measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index increased 0.1% in August and increased 1.8% above August 2018. The food index did not change for the month. The energy index decreased (1.9)% for the month, primarily due to a (3.5)% decrease in the index for gasoline. The index for medical services, the largest contributor to the August CPI change, increased by 0.7%. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased 0.3% for the month. Compared to August 2018, the core CPI is up by 2.4%, the highest percentage increase in over a decade. The Conference Board's U.S. Leading Economic Index rose in July to 112.2 and is 1.4% above its July 2018 reading. The increase was a result of stronger numbers from housing permits, stock prices, and unemployment

insurance claims. Weakness in the manufacturing sector and the yield spread made negative contributions.

ARIZONA Single-family housing construction is increasing. In July, Arizona’s 12-month total of single-family building permits was 31,667, or 5.8% more than a year ago. The comparable single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. was a decrease of (3.4)%. The 12-month total of multi-family building permits has been up and down. In July, Arizona’s total of 10,564 multi-family building permits was (11.5)% less than in 2018. Nationwide multi-family permits were only 1.4% more than in 2018. Tourism Revenue per available room was $63.57 in July, 4.7% above the same month in the prior year. State park visitation was 312,634 in June, 12.3% above the same month in the prior year. Ridership through Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport during the month increased 0.5% above July 2018. Employment According to the latest employment report released by the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO), the state added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in August compared to the prior month. This was more than the 10-year average job gain of 48,600 for the month of August. A little less than 84% of August's monthly job gain was related to state and local government education employment. Job gains typically occur in August when schools return from summer recess. Compared to the same month in the prior year, Arizona added 71,600 net new jobs in August, which is a year-over-year increase of 2.5%. The largest year-over-year job gains in August came from the following industries: Education and Health Services (+18,200), Construction (+15,200), and Manufacturing (+9,200). The only industry that experienced a loss of jobs in August compared to August 2018 was the Information sector, which shed (200) jobs. Year-over-year, employment growth in this industry is down by (0.4)%. In August, the state’s regular unemployment rate increased from 4.9% to 5.0%. In August 2018, the jobless rate was 4.8%. Arizona's unemployment rate has only remained below 5% for a total of 24 months since the last economic expansion began in June 2009. According to some economists, one reason that

Page 5: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

5 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Monthly Indicators (Continued)

Arizona's unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high when compared to most other states is that Arizona has experienced more in-migration, which tends to result in more "frictional unemployment." This typically occurs in a healthy economy when people are more optimistic about finding a new job or rejoining the labor force. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% for the third consecutive month in August. According to OEO, the state had a total of 25,568 claimants receiving unemployment insurance benefits in August, a decrease of (3.1)% from July. This figure is (7.1)% below the August 2018 level. OEO reported that 15,676 initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed in August, a decrease of (3.9)% compared to the same month last year. Average Hourly Earnings The Average Hourly Earnings received by private sector workers in July was $26.27, which was 0.6% above the average in the prior month. Year-over-year growth in earnings decreased from 2.6% in June to 2.0% in July. State Agency Data At the beginning of September 2019, the total AHCCCS caseload was 1.84 million members. Total monthly enrollment increased by 0.4% for September and was 1.7% higher than a year ago. Parent and child enrollment in the Traditional population increased by 0.3% for September and was (0.2)% lower than a year ago. Enrollment in KidsCare is 35,431 for September, which represents 1.3% growth compared to August and is 15.9% above last year. For September 2019, growth in the childless adult population was 0.7%. At 328,987, this population is 6.4% higher than a year ago. In the adult Medicaid expansion program up to 133% of the Federal Poverty Level, enrollment decreased (1.0)% for September and totals 77,503 individuals. Enrollment is 0.9% higher than a year ago. Based on information the Department of Child Safety provided for July 2019, reports of child maltreatment totaled 46,180 over the last 12 months, a decrease of (2.4)% over the prior year. There were 14,226 children in out-of-home care as of June 2019, or (1.7)% less than in June 2018. Compared to the prior month, the number of out-of-home children increased by 0.1%

The Arizona Department of Correction's inmate population was 42,456 as of August 31, 2019. This was an increase of 0.3% since July 31, 2019 and a 0.6% increase since August 2018. There were 13,049 TANF Cash Assistance recipients in the state in July, representing a (5.4)% monthly caseload decrease from June. The year-over-year number of TANF Cash Assistance recipients has declined by (7.5)%. The statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to low-income households to purchase food. In July, 819,225 people received food stamp assistance in the state, representing a 1.1% increase above June caseloads. Compared to July 2018, the level of food stamp participation has declined by (3.1)%.

Page 6: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

6 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Table 5 MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator Time Period Current Value Change From

Prior Period Change From

Prior Year

Arizona Employment - Regular Unemployment Rate August 5.0% 0.1% 0.2% - Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)

2nd Q 2019 9.2% 0.2)% 0.1%

- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims August 15,676 (24.6)% (3.9)% - Unemployment Insurance Recipients August 25,586 (3.1)% (7.1)% - Non-Farm Employment - Total Manufacturing Construction

August August August

2,917,500 180,200 175,700

2.0% 0.2%

(0.7)%

2.5% 5.4% 9.5%

- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector July $26.27 0.6% 2.0% Building

- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg) Single-family Multi-family

July July

31,667 10,564

0.8%

(7.3)%

5.8%

(11.5)% - Maricopa County/Other, Home

Sales (ARMLS) Single-Family (Pending Sales)

July

6,370

9.2%

17.8%

- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS) Single-Family (Pending Sales)

July

$290,000

(1.7)%

2.1%

- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100) June 192.75 0.9% 5.8% - Maricopa Pending Foreclosures July 2,345 (0.4)% (10.2)% - Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS) July 18,007 (9.0)% (8.8)%

Tourism - Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers July 3,832,564 0.1% 0.5% - State Park Visitors June 312,634 9.2% 12.3% - Revenue Per Available Hotel Room July $63.57 (8.4)% 4.7% General Measures - Arizona Leading Index – 6-month projected growth July 2.8% 0.8% (0.7)% - Arizona Personal Income 1st Q 2019 $323.5 billion 1.4% 5.2% - Arizona Population July 2018 7,171,646 N/A 1.7% - State Debt Rating Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s Outlook

May May

AA / Aa2

Stable

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Agency Measures - AHCCCS Recipients September 1st 1,841,696 0.4% 1.7% Acute Care Traditional 1,033,224 0.3% (0.2)% Prop 204 Childless Adults 328,987 0.7% 6.4% Other Prop 204 187,576 0.3% 1.9% Adult Expansion 77,503 (0.1)% 0.9% KidsCare 35,431 1.3% 15.9% Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD 66,000 0.5% 5.1% Emergency Services 112,975 (0.1)% 0.2% - Department of Child Safety (DCS) Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)

DCS Out-of-Home Children

July June

46,180 14,226

0.0% 0.1%

(2.4)% (1.7)%

Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted) July 1,293 21 (47) - ADC Inmate Growth August 42,456 0.3% 0.6% - Department of Economic Security - TANF Cash Assistance Recipients July 13,049 (5.4)% (7.5)% - SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients July 819,225 1.1% (3.1)% - Judiciary Probation Caseload Non-Maricopa

Maricopa County

May May

19,272 28,121

36 (155)

23

(296) United States - Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2012 dollars, SAAR)

2nd Q, 2019 (2nd Estimate)

$19.0 trillion 2.0% 2.3%

- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) August 135.1 (0.5)% 1.3% - Leading Indicators Index (2016 = 100) July 112.2 0.6% 1.4% - Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100) August 256.3 0.1% 1.8% - Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (2012 = 100)

July 109.8 0.2% 1.4%

Page 7: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

7 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

JLBC/JCCR Meeting Follow-Up

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

Arizona Department of Corrections – Report on Lewis and Yuma Lock, Fire System and HVAC Upgrades – Pursuant to Committee provisions from the June 2019 JCCR meeting, the Department of Administration (ADOA) submitted the quarterly status and progress report for the Lock, Fire System and HVAC upgrades at the Lewis and Yuma prison complexes on behalf of the Arizona Department of Corrections. According to ADOA, there have been no changes to the scope of the project, and the project is still expected to be completed in April 2021. The original estimated cost of the project was $45.9 million. ADOA now estimates the project will cost $51.4 million, a 10.7% increase. ADOA reports that the increase is due to higher than anticipated lock prices, labor costs, sales taxes and insurance fees. Of the $17.7 million reviewed by the Committee in June 2019, ADOA has allocated $480,000 to engineering and pre-construction costs, $13.0 million to lock purchase and fabrication, and $3.1 million for the cost of installation. About $1.1 million remains unallocated. (Geoffrey Paulsen)

Department of Veterans' Services – Report on Facility Start Up Costs – Pursuant to provisions from the September 2018 JCCR meeting, the Arizona Department of Veterans' Services (ADVS) submitted a report on estimated start-up costs for both the Yuma and Flagstaff facilitates. ADVS intends to request a $3.7 million increase to its FY 2021 appropriation from the State Homes for Veterans Trust Fund. Of this total, $1.8 million will be used for start-up costs in Yuma and $1.9 million will be used in Flagstaff. The State Homes for Veterans Trust Fund has a sufficient balance to cover these costs. ADVS reports the fund's current balance is over $18 million. (Elizabeth Dagle)

Arizona Department of Administration – Report on Vehicle Maintenance Savings – Pursuant to Laws 2018, Chapter 276, ADOA reported on the maintenance savings achieved by replacing vehicles that have an average of 80,000 miles or more. ADOA estimates maintenance savings by subtracting the first full year of maintenance costs for each vehicle from the maintenance costs incurred in the last year each vehicle was in service. In FY 2019, ADOA estimates total maintenance savings of $77,300 for replacement of 63 vehicles with an average of 156,254 miles. (Morgan Dorcheus) AHCCCS – Report on the FY 2019 Hospital Assessment – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2901.08, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) authorized an assessment on hospital discharges for funding the state match portion of the Medicaid expansion (adults from 100%-133% of the Federal Poverty Level) and the entire Proposition 204 population. Under A.R.S. § 36-2903.08, AHCCCS is required to report the following items before August 1 of each year: 1) the amount each hospital contributed to the assessment, and 2) the amount each hospital received from the assessment.

The hospital assessment is calculated by multiplying the number of discharges reported on each hospital’s Medicare Cost Report by the hospital’s per-inpatient discharge rate. In FY 2019, the average discharge rate for all providers was approximately $426. From July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019, AHCCCS collected $286.2 million in assessments from 71 hospitals. Due to reporting lags between providers and AHCCCS health plan contractors, payments can take 3-6 months before paid claims appear in AHCCCS’ database. Because of this lag, AHCCCS was unable to submit FY 2019 estimated Medicaid payments to hospitals by August 1, 2019, and instead plans to report payments by February 28, 2020. (Maggie Rocker) Department of Child Safety – Quarterly Report on Foster Care and Medicaid – Laws 2013, Chapter 220, as amended by Laws 2016, Chapter 273 and Laws 2018, Chapter 152, requires the Department of Child Safety (DCS) to report on foster care and Medicaid eligibility. For the fourth quarter of FY 2019, DCS reported the following data in foster care and Medicaid eligibility:

Page 8: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

8 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)

1. There were 13,155 children eligible for Medicaid in foster care at the end of the quarter, which represents about 98% of children in out-of-home care.

2. The amount of non-Medicaid expenditures for behavioral health inpatient facilities and behavioral health residential facilities was $737,700.

3. The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health counseling/psychiatric services expenditures was $94,200. (Patrick Moran)

Department of Economic Security – Report on Arizona Training Program at Coolidge (ATP-C) Campus and Other Placements – An FY 2019 General Appropriation Act footnote requires the Department of Economic Security (DES) to report on placements of developmentally-disabled (DD) clients into state-owned Intermediate Care Facilities for Individuals with Intellectual Disabilities (ICF-IID) or at the ATP-C campus in FY 2019. DES reports there were 2 new placements into state-owned ICF-IIDs and no new placements into the ATP-C campus. DES DD has a contract with one private ICF-IID, which is currently prohibited from accepting new residents. (Elizabeth Dagle) Department of Economic Security – Report on Developmental Disabilities Provider Rate Increase Implementation – Pursuant to an FY 2020 General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Economic Security (DES) submitted a report on August 1, 2019 on its efforts to engage stakeholders and their plan to implement provider rate increases for FY 2020. After DES' public forums, DES has submitted a follow-up. DES' plan allocated the $94 million in Total Funds available for provider rate increases as follows: • $66.6 million allocated for services with Proposition

206 costs. • $2.0 million allocated for Room and Board. • $25.4 million allocated for Other Services. These rates effectively shifted $6.4 million from Other Services to Proposition 206 rate costs under DES' original August 1 proposal. Provider rates will be retroactively adjusted for dates of service in July, August, and September 2019. (Elizabeth Dagle) Department of Environmental Quality – Report on Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund for FY 2019 – Pursuant to an annual General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) submitted its September 1 report to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) on the progress of activities in the Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund (WQARF) Program. The WQARF Program is similar

to the federal Superfund program and is designed to remediate contaminated groundwater at specified sites. The report lists total FY 2019 expenditures at $23.1 million. Revenues totaled $16.1 million, including $13.6 million in appropriations, $1.9 million in fees, $539,700 recovered from responsible parties and $123,900 in other revenues. Unexpended funds at the end of FY 2019 totaled $3.0 million. In FY 2020, DEQ plans to spend $17.4 million on the WQARF Program for 36 sites, including $10.6 million for registry sites and preliminary investigations, $6.7 million for administration, and $160,000 for the Department of Water Resources. (Josh Hope) Arizona Department of Environmental Quality – Report on Progress of Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund Sites – Pursuant to an FY 2020 General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) reported on the progress of each site listed on the Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund (WQARF) registry. There are 12 potential steps in the WQARF process. At the end of FY 2019, DEQ reported 36 WQARF sites. In FY 2019, DEQ completed 6 remedial investigations, 3 feasibility studies, 2 proposed remedial action plans, and 4 remedial actions. In FY 2019, 1.1 billion gallons of groundwater were treated, 1.1 million pounds of metals and other hazardous materials were removed, and 4,722 pounds of volatile organic compounds were removed. DEQ does not anticipate removing any sites from the registry in FY 2020. At least 14 registry sites are planned for stage completion or advancement to the next stage of the WQARF process in FY 2020. In FY 2019, DEQ determined that 28 of 66 non-registry sites will not require further investigation or action. (Josh Hope) Arizona Department of Homeland Security – Report on Homeland Security Funding – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-4255, the Arizona Department of Homeland Security submitted its annual report detailing grant allocations and expenditures for Homeland Security grants from Federal Fiscal Year (FYY) 2016 through FFY 2018. The report indicates that 13.9% of the FFY 2018 allocation has been expended. Information for FFY 2016 - FFY 2018 is included in Table 6 below. The state was allocated and the Arizona Department of Homeland Security was awarded $26.3 million in Homeland Security grants for FFY 2018. The department reported total expenditures of $3.6 million, leaving $22.7 million unexpended. State agencies were awarded $2.8 million, of which $450,100 has

Page 9: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

9 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)

been expended. Local governments were awarded $23.5 million, of which $3.2 million has been expended. The largest local grantee was the Pinal County Sheriff’s Office ($2.1 million). The only state grantee was the Department of Public Safety ($2.9 million). The largest individual grant of $1.2 million went to the Pinal County Sheriff’s Office for equipment under Operation Stonegarden. Total combined state and local awards for FFY 2017 represented an increase from the amounts received in FFY 2016 and FFY 2017. Arizona received $22.0 million in total combined state and local awards in FFY 2016 and $21.8 million in FFY 2017. Of the funds received, 99.1% have been expended for FFY 2016 and 77.8% have been expended for FFY 2017. (Alexis Pagel) Department of Public Safety – Report on Border Strike Task Force Expenditures – Pursuant to a footnote in the FY 2020 General Appropriation Act, DPS is required to submit an expenditure plan for the Border Strike Task Force Local Support line item. The FY 2020 budget appropriated $1,261,700 from the General Fund for the Border Strike Task Force Local Support line item. The line item funding consists of $761,700 to support local law enforcement positions within the task force and $500,000 for grants to local governments for prosecutorial and jail costs associated with border-related crimes. The FY 2020 expenditure plan increases expenditures for Cochise County to support an additional position from the FY 2019 DPS allocations. DPS plans to expend $761,700 to support 6 deputy positions at the Cochise County Sheriff's Office (an increase of 1 from FY 2019) and 3 deputy positions at the Pima County Sheriff's Department. The $500,000 for prosecutorial and jail costs will be split equally among Cochise County, Pima County, and Santa Cruz County. (Jordan Johnston)

Supreme Court – Report on Current and Future Automation Projects – Pursuant to an FY 2020 General Appropriation Act footnote, the Administrative Office of the Courts (AOC) provided its FY 2020 report on current and future automation projects coordinated by the AOC. The AOC estimates total state automation expenditures in FY 2020 will be approximately $24.5 million. Of this amount, approximately $2.9 million, or 12%, will be spent on 8 new or continuing projects as listed below; $14.2 million, or 58%, will be spent on shared infrastructure; and $7.4 million, or 30%, will be spent on ongoing automation support. New Projects: • Develop an automated process for answering

public safety assessment questions as part of the pretrial risk assessment report ($120,000 in FY 2020).

Continuing Projects: • Replace legacy appellate-court Case

Management System ($1,046,700 in FY 2020 and $1,303,300 in FY 2021).

• Continue to update outdated software within the statewide case management system in limited jurisdiction courts ($629,600 in FY 2020).

• Expand new e-filing capabilities for the limited jurisdiction courts in rural counties and expand functionality to new case and filing types ($507,500 in FY 2020, $298,800 in FY 2021, and $385,300 in FY 2022).

• Continue development of redesigned Fines, Fees and Restitution Enforcement (FARE) data warehouse ($398,200 in FY 2020).

• Update the Adult Probation Enterprise Tracking System (APETS) to extend the life of the application ($160,000 in FY 2020 and FY 2021).

Table 6

Awards and Expenditures by Homeland Security Grant Recipients FFY 2016 FFY 2017 FFY 2018 State Awards $2,031,600 $2,311,100 $2,858,800 Local Government Awards 19,979,700 19,766,100 23,469,200

Total Awards $22,011,300 $22,077,200 $26,328,000 State Expenditures $2,003,500 $1,881,800 $450,100 Local Government Expenditures 19,815,600 15,304,300 3,212,000

Total Expenditures $21,819,100 $17,186,100 $3,662,100 Percentage of Total Awards

Currently Expended 99.1% 77.8% 13.9%

Page 10: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)

• Convert the Dependent Children's Activity Tracking System (DCATS) from its legacy system to operate as a module on the Juvenile On-Line Tracking System (JOLTSaz) ($82,000 in FY 2020 and FY 2021).

• Replace out-of-support devices and software licenses in Pima County ($46,700 in FY 2020 and FY 2021).

The top 3 funding sources for automation projects included in this plan are the Judicial Collection Enhancement Fund ($8.9 million), the Grants & Other Special Revenues Fund ($6.2 million), and the General Fund ($3.4 million). Together these 3 funds comprise 76% of the proposed funding in FY 2020. (Geoffrey Paulsen) Arizona Board of Regents – Report on College Credit by Exam Incentive Program – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-249.06, the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) submitted a list of qualifying examinations that a high school student may take to receive collect credit in mathematics, English language arts, social studies, or science at the state's public universities. For the 2019-2020 academic year, ABOR added 5 new qualifying exams to the list, including 2 Cambridge International exams in English and Information Technology and 3 International Baccalaureate exams in Language, Language and Literature, and Physics. In addition, the list removed an International Baccalaureate English exam that is no longer offered. (Morgan Dorcheus) Arizona Board of Regents – Report on Cost Containment – A.R.S. § 15-1650.03B requires the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) to annually provide the following information for each of Arizona's 3 universities: Historical Increases in Tuition and Fees, Housing, and Meal Plans From FY 2009 to FY 2019, costs of tuition, fees, housing, and meal plans increased by approximately 74.3% at ASU, 70.9% at NAU, and 84.3% at UA. Increases and Faculty and Staff FTE Counts and Total Salaries From FY 2009 to FY 2019, total salaries for university employees across all classifications increased by 63.0% at ASU, 49.7% at NAU, and 27.3% at UA. These increases compare to a 25.7% increase in the number of faculty at ASU (1,151 FTE Positions), 42.7% at NAU (333 FTE Positions), and 6.3% at UA (233 FTE Positions). Changes in Credit Hour Requirements From FY 2004 to FY 2019, NAU reports a 1 credit hour increase for Civil Engineering. In the same time period,

UA reports 10 programs increased credit hour requirements by up to 9 credit hours, and requirements for Animal Sciences decreased by 5-credit hours. ASU reports no changes in credit hour requirements. Faculty Time Allocations At all 3 universities, 20% of faculty and resources are dedicated to administrative duties, professional development, and service. ASU and UA faculty dedicate 40% of their remaining time to teaching and 40% to research, while NAU faculty dedicates 50% to teaching and 30% to research. Non-Traditional or Low-Cost Degree Options Both NAU and UA offer tuition guarantees that freeze tuition for incoming freshmen for 8 consecutive semesters. Community college pathway programs are also available at all 3 universities, as well as Non-Traditional or Low-Cost degree paths. Examples include: • ASU: 3-year bachelor's degrees and accelerated

graduate degree programs • NAU: Online competency-based programs and

accelerated graduate degree programs • UA: Accelerated graduate degree programs Cost Containment Actions All universities report utilizing contract renegotiations, refinancing of outstanding debt, and organizational restructuring to contain costs. Additional examples of actions taken over the last year include: • ASU: Utilizing shared competition and practice

fields and negotiating lower rates for student public transit and rideshares.

• NAU: Reviewing electronic library subscription costs, automating manual processes, elimination of paper forms, and standardization of processes across departments.

• UA: Digitizing sponsored project awards, implementing electronic financial forms, and completing infrastructure projects to reduce utility costs.

(Morgan Dorcheus)

Page 11: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

11 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

August Spending

August 2019 General Fund spending was $734.3 million, which is an increase of $57.0 million above August 2018. Year-to-date, General Fund spending of $3.45 billion is an increase of $143.9 million above the prior year. (See Tables 7 & 8). • Year-to-date, Department of Education (ADE)

spending has increased by $69.2 million compared to the prior year. The FY 2020 budget added funding for: 1) a 5% teacher salary increase, which is the second year of a phased in 20% increase; 2) $136 million to continue the restoration of K-12 "Additional Assistance" funding.

• Year-to-date, Department of Economic Security (DES) spending has decreased by $(238.2) million compared to the prior year. This decline is related to the technical timing of Medicaid spending.

• State spending has increased due to the deposit of General Fund monies into the Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF). The enacted budget authorized 2 deposits from the state General Fund to the Budget Stabilization Fund: $271 million in FY 2019 (which was made in June 2019) and $271 million in FY 2020. As of mid-August the entire FY 2020 deposit was completed.

August 19Change From

August 18 Year-to-DateYTD Change from FY 19

AgencyAHCCCS 168.7 19.0 293.2 (46.3)

Corrections 86.6 (12.8) 303.4 (5.5)

Child Safety 9.8 (20.5) 43.6 (27.0)

Economic Security 3.8 (11.3) 261.2 (238.2)

Education 327.7 63.5 1,602.8 69.2

Health Serv ices 6.8 (2.6) 21.1 0.6

Public Safety 2.5 (2.4) 28.9 (5.4)

School Facilities Board 0.1 (0.0) 185.0 25.0

Univ ersities 62.5 6.1 125.7 7.5

Leaseback Debt Serv ice 0.0 0.0 77.7 (6.4)

Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit 0.0 0.0 271.1 271.1

Other 65.8 18.0 234.6 99.3

Total 734.3 57.0 3,448.3 143.9

Table 7General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)

Page 12: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

12 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Agency August 19Change from

August 18 Year-to-DateYTD Change from FY 19

Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund 3,300.4 2,392.6 15,148.6 8,477.1 ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service - - 77,709.3 (6,402.7)Office of Administrative Hearings 115.8 (21.2) 193.4 7.3 Commission of African-American Affairs 7.7 (5.0) 19.2 (1.6)Department of Agriculture 1,067.8 (25.5) 2,237.6 241.9 AHCCCS 168,714.7 19,024.2 293,175.5 (46,309.1)Arts, AZ Commission on the - - 500.0 500.0 Attorney General 3,058.9 644.6 6,009.0 2,045.1 State Board of Charter Schools 58.7 (123.3) 168.5 (80.7)Department of Child Safety 9,826.5 (20,454.0) 43,610.9 (26,974.3)AZ Commerce Authority 1,416.7 125.0 2,708.4 125.0 Community Colleges 14.0 (130.2) 22,831.5 9,791.1 Corporation Commission 47.3 (750.3) 117.9 (806.8)Department of Corrections 86,603.7 (12,778.8) 303,378.6 (5,516.4)County Funding - - - - AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind 1,845.1 (231.5) 5,474.3 1,396.8 Office of Economic Opportunity 39.5 (3.6) 216.6 141.0 Department of Economic Security 3,785.0 (11,295.5) 261,153.9 (238,196.4)State Board of Education 183.1 130.7 292.0 161.4 Department of Education 327,674.2 63,490.9 1,602,782.9 69,214.6 DEMA 376.7 (580.9) 4,732.4 3,212.1 DEQ – WQARF - - - - Office of Equal Opportunity - - - - State Board of Equalization 21.6 (28.6) 201.7 131.5 Board of Executive Clemency 66.7 (30.3) 169.6 6.3 Department of Financial Institutions 97.2 (32.9) 543.5 356.7 Department of Forestry and Fire Management 798.0 (770.5) 1,869.7 (148.6)Department of Gaming - - 2,509.5 730.0 Governor/OSPB 1,368.3 484.0 2,187.8 370.3 Department of Health Services 6,835.4 (2,556.6) 21,136.3 550.5 Arizona Historical Society 631.2 357.1 904.2 424.3 Prescott Historical Society of AZ 106.9 19.7 201.9 38.1 Department of Housing - - 3,750.0 3,750.0 Independent Redistricting Comm. - - - - Department of Insurance 658.7 (26.9) 1,124.6 64.2 Judiciary

Supreme/Superior Court 13,215.4 6,196.8 27,138.7 3,108.0 Court of Appeals 1,088.7 (606.9) 2,703.4 (109.5)Department of Juvenile Corrections 2,832.3 (1,400.9) 7,209.6 554.0

Table 8General Fund Spending

($ in Thousands)

Page 13: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

13 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2019

Agency August 19Change from

August 18 Year-to-DateYTD Change from FY 19

State Land Department 774.5 (203.8) 2,055.8 (244.3)Legislature Auditor General 1,722.3 (498.5) 4,181.5 352.6 House of Representatives 1,083.9 (430.6) 2,845.5 229.9 Joint Legislative Budget Comm. 178.0 (82.3) 434.5 (34.0) Legislative Council 451.3 (161.0) 1,321.6 306.6 Senate 713.3 (361.4) 1,861.1 25.0 Mine Inspector 87.6 (13.6) 184.3 (17.2)Nav. Streams & Adjudication 7.9 (16.6) 20.7 (12.0)Phoenix Convention Center - - 23,500.0 503.7 Comm. for Postsecondary Ed. 620.6 152.0 833.6 152.0 Department of Public Safety 2,468.9 (2,436.7) 28,948.1 (5,430.7)Public Safety Personnel Retirement System 1,000.0 (6,000.0) 6,000.0 (1,000.0)Radiation Regulatory Agency - - - - Real Estate Department 181.0 (55.8) 589.9 147.5 Department of Revenue 5,522.9 3,379.4 7,959.3 4,046.0 Rio Nuevo Distribution - - - - School Facilities Board 132.5 (30.4) 184,996.7 24,978.0 Secretary of State 789.2 (452.6) 1,875.6 (1,104.1)Tax Appeals Board 18.1 (27.8) 82.1 35.9 Office of Tourism - - 1,778.0 (355.6)Department of Transportation 18,518.9 17,920.2 28,976.1 27,086.4 Governor's Office on Tribal Relations 8.4 0.3 17.0 2.0 Universities Board of Regents 230.7 206.6 424.1 33.5 Arizona State University 26,337.9 1,597.8 55,777.2 3,315.3 Northern Arizona University 10,432.6 662.1 19,906.0 967.3 University of Arizona 25,510.1 3,611.7 49,634.5 3,199.8 Department of Veteran Services 512.3 (116.0) 1,277.3 116.3 Department of Water Resources 1,016.7 (588.6) 37,357.2 34,750.0 Department of Weights & Measures - - - - Other - State Treasurer/JP Salaries 91.4 (60.4) 234.6 (101.1)Other - Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit - - 271,107.0 271,107.0 Other - - - - Total 734,266.9 57,006.3 3,448,290.4 143,907.4

Table 8 (Continued)

Page 14: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

Arizona Economic Trends

Page:

2……Total Non-Farm Employment3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting

Category7……Residential Building Permits

September 2019Appendix A

JLBC 22

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,000

Jan-

01Au

g-01

Mar

-02

Oct-0

2M

ay-0

3De

c-03

Jul-0

4Fe

b-05

Sep-

05Ap

r-06

Nov-

06Ju

n-07

Jan-

08Au

g-08

Mar

-09

Oct-0

9M

ay-1

0De

c-10

Jul-1

1Fe

b-12

Sep-

12Ap

r-13

Nov-

13Ju

n-14

Jan-

15Au

g-15

Mar

-16

Oct-1

6M

ay-1

7De

c-17

Jul-1

8Fe

b-19

Thou

sand

s of J

obs

-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18

Jan-

19Ju

l-19

Year

Ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

2,917,500 jobs(August 2019)

2.5% Y/Y Growth(August 2019)

JLBC 33

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

$24

$25

$26

$27

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

$ / H

our

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

Year

Ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

2.0% Y/Y Growth(July 2019)

$26.27/ Hour(July 2019)

JLBC 44

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

Jan-

01Au

g-01

Mar

-02

Oct-0

2M

ay-0

3De

c-03

Jul-0

4Fe

b-05

Sep-

05Ap

r-06

Nov-

06Ju

n-07

Jan-

08Au

g-08

Mar

-09

Oct-0

9M

ay-1

0De

c-10

Jul-1

1Fe

b-12

Sep-

12Ap

r-13

Nov-

13Ju

n-14

Jan-

15Au

g-15

Mar

-16

Oct-1

6M

ay-1

7De

c-17

Jul-1

8Fe

b-19

Tota

l Mon

thly

Cla

ims

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18

Jan-

19Ju

l-19

Year

Ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

15,676 Claims(August 2019)

(3.9)% Y/Y Growth(August 2019)

Page 15: Monthly Fiscal Highlights - September 2019August $ 816.6 $ 19.1 $ 15.0 Year-to-Date $ 1,723.2 $ 58.6 $ 6.3 Sales Tax collections of $436.7 million were 7.6% above August of last year

JLBC 55

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

$ in

Mill

ions

-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

Aug-

06

Feb-

07

Aug-

07

Feb-

08

Aug-

08

Feb-

09

Aug-

09

Feb-

10

Aug-

10

Feb-

11

Aug-

11

Feb-

12

Aug-

12

Feb-

13

Aug-

13

Feb-

14

Aug-

14

Feb-

15

Aug-

15

Feb-

16

Aug-

16

Feb-

17

Aug-

17

Feb-

18

Aug-

18

Feb-

19

Aug-

19

Year

Ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

8.1% Y/Y Growth(August 2019)

$219.1 Million(August 2019)

Excludes temporary 1-cent sales tax*January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect one-time category shift JLBC 66

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

$ in

Mill

ions

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Jul-1

8

Jan-

19

Jul-1

9

Year

Ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

Excludes temporary 1-cent sales tax

17.9% Y/Y Growth(August 2019)

$56.1 Million(August 2019)

JLBC 77

Residential Building Permits

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Jan-

01Au

g-01

Mar

-02

Oct-0

2M

ay-0

3De

c-03

Jul-0

4Fe

b-05

Sep-

05Ap

r-06

Nov-

06Ju

n-07

Jan-

08Au

g-08

Mar

-09

Oct-0

9M

ay-1

0De

c-10

Jul-1

1Fe

b-12

Sep-

12Ap

r-13

Nov-

13Ju

n-14

Jan-

15Au

g-15

Mar

-16

Oct-1

6M

ay-1

7De

c-17

Jul-1

8Fe

b-19

Build

ing P

erm

its Single Family UnitMulti-Family Unit

31,667 Permits10,564 Permits

(July 2019)

12-Month Moving Sum