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Monsanto Fellows Climate Change Panel Report
Edoardo Feri23 June 2010
MonsantoFellows ClimateChange Panel
Outline
• Background and rationale
• Monsanto Fellows Climate Change Panel
• Methodology
• Findings
• Recommendations
• Monsanto actions following the report
Monsanto Turns to its Fellows to Answer Inquiry from the Board
• Inquiry from Science & Technology Committee of the Board
• Technology Organization was asked how well Monsanto is positioned relative to challenges and opportunities presented by climate change
• Including potential economic, regulatory, and environmental impacts
• General call for volunteers issued to the Monsanto Fellows
• More than 20 responded and became engaged in process
• “Monsanto Fellows Climate Change Panel” formed in December 2006
• Organized into six themes
• External consultants sought and involved
• Climate Change symposium held (2 March 2007)
• Review of the six theme‐team reports (3 May 2007)
• Report to Science & Technology Committee (14 June 2007)
About the Monsanto Fellow Program
• First established in 1948, re‐launched in November 2001
• Intended to recognize, utilize, and develop Monsanto scientists and their scientific leadership skills
• Rigorous nomination process
• Oral reviews every three years
• Includes one Nobel Prize winner (Chemistry, 2001), Dr. William Knowles, a retired Distinguished Fellow, for his work in chiral synthesis
• Current roster• Associate Fellow (31)
• Fellow (32)
• Senior Fellow (19)
• Distinguished Fellow (3)
Panel Concluded that Temperatures areIncreasing
• All temperature measures agree surface warming is underway
• Unanimous corroborative data (glaciers, migration dates, etc.)
• Unprecedented rate of warming began in late 1960’s, linked by modeling to man‐made causes
Complete summertime melt of Arctic ice cap now imminent
US Climate Change Science Program Report (27 May 2008)
GHG Concentrations Linked to World Population Growth and Affluence
Fastest growth occurred in 1962 (doubling time of 32 years)
Hansen target
CO2 Levels Still Accelerating
Trend reaches 556 ppm(twice pre‐industrial value)within 54 years (2063)
GHG Forcing, Significance
source: NOAA GHG Inventory (2008)
Direct forcing only, minor GHG gases not shown (CFC’s etc.)
This amount of addedradiational forcing already
equates to a nearly 2% increaseof absorbed solar radiation. That’slike moving the earth a million milescloser to the sun. Natural changesin solar intensity (due to sunspot
activity, etc.) are on theorder of 0.1%.
Global Warming Predicted to be Non‐Uniform
∆Precip
∆T ⁰C
• Warming predicted to occur mainly …
• over land areas rather than over the oceans
• near the poles rather than in the tropics
• at night rather than during mid‐day
• in winters rather than in summers
• Precipitation changes less certain, but …
• overall increase certain, especially near the poles
Impacts of Further Warming
based on: IPCC (2007) and current warming trend
Water
Eco-systems
Food
Coasts
Health
0°F 2°F 4°F 6°F 8°F 10°F
2008 2028 2043 2055 2066 2076
increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudesdecreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-air low latitudeshundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
up to 30% species at extinction risk >40% species extinctionsincreased coral bleaching – most corals bleached – widespread coral mortalityincreasing species range shifts and wildfires – terrestrial biosphere becomes net carbon source
complex, localized negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fisherscereal productivity decreases in low latitudes
cereal productivity increases at mid- to high-latitudes – some productivity reversals
increasing damage from floods and storms30% of coastal wetlands lost
millions experience coastal flooding each year
increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseasesincreasing morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughtschanging distribution of some disease vectors – substantial burden on health services
Monsanto’s Sustainable Yield Initiative
Help corn, soy & cotton farmers double yields by2030 (vs. 2000)
Reduce use of energy, water, & other inputs by 1/3 per unit of output
Farmers of all sizes become more productive, including >5M people in resource‐poor farm families
Doubling Crop Yields by 2030 would Avoid Substantial GHG Emissions
‐
,500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
USA CAN MEX ARG BRZ PRC IND ROW
Millions Ton
s CO
2 eq
Corn
Cotton
Soybeans
Wheat
Three Crops
Four Crops
• Estimates derived by Monsanto using methods like those recently published by Burney et al.†
• Global GHG emissions reduced by >10 billion tons CO2e
• US would attain about a 2 billion ton CO2e reduction
PRC
IND
BRZ
ARG
USA
MEX
CAN
† Burney JA, Davis SJ, Lobell DB, “Greenhouse Gas Mitigation by Agricultural Intensification,” PNAS Early Edition (2010). http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/14/0914216107
ROW = Rest of World
Solar‐Powered Crop Protection
• Crop chemical production is responsible for the majority of GHG emissions by ag technology providers
• Bt‐crops decrease number of insecticide sprays
• Reduce “latent” GHG content of insecticide production
• Reduce fuel use associated with spraying operations
• Ag biotech uses solar energy to power crop protection
New Ag Technologies are Key to the Global Response to Climate Change• Need to produce more food, feed, fiber, and fuel, and in more sustainable ways
• New technologies will enable the following positive impacts to continue:
• Yield (reduce land requirements)
• Efficiency (yield/emissions)
• Direct GHG sequestration
• Advanced breeding
• Stress mitigation
Drought tolerance traits:Pursued in Corn, Soy and Cotton
Potential reduction of irrigation by 10% (corn) to 20% (cotton)
Would reduce diesel usage, thus decreasing CO2 emissions
Added benefit:With our drought tolerance focus, we are increasing the quantity of performance tests conducted in stressed environments
Stress Tolerance Traits
Efficient use of resources, enhanced adaptive ability
Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA)
THE PARTNERS• African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) is leading
the project
• Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Howard Buffet Foundation
• CIMMYT and Monsanto will bring best in global maize germplasm, testing and breeding methods, and biotechnology
• National Ag. Research System (NARS) participation is a crucial part of testing products and bringing WEMA to Sub‐Saharan African farmers
• Countries: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa
THE TECHNOLOGY• Best global germplasm to combine new sources of drought tolerance
and African adaptation
• More rapid gains in conventional drought tolerance through molecular breeding
• Additional drought tolerance obtained through state‐of‐the‐art biotechnology
DEDICATED TO DELIVERING WEMA
Recorded droughts between 1971 and 2000, and the number of people affected
Concluding “Climate” Predictions
• Geo‐political climate and economic constraints will continue to hamper GHG reduction efforts
• China, US, Russia, India …
• Cheap, abundant coal
• Ag will continue to be forced to adapt to ever more challenging environmental stresses
• Real reductions in ag GHG emissions will only be possible with breakthrough technologies
• New discoveries and new practices essential