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Monitoring energy/carbon savings is crucial. Why?. Rudy Rooth, KEMA Low Carbon Communities Conference London, 13 July 2011. Presentation outline. The need for monitoring Monitoring and energy efficiency Examples - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Monitoring energy/carbon savings is crucial. Why?
Rudy Rooth, KEMA
Low Carbon Communities ConferenceLondon, 13 July 2011
Presentation outline
The need for monitoring Monitoring and energy efficiency
Examples Dutch energy performance of buildings
standards (EPC) versus actual energy consumption
District heat project in CONCERTO
Conclusions
The need for monitoring
"If you can measure that of which you speak and can express it by a number, you know something of your subject; but if you cannot measure it, your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory." ~Lord Kelvin
No results to show will results in unwillingness to invest.
European reliance on energy efficiency
The need for monitoring
It forces one to establish a baseline and a protocol of measurement
Essential elements based on International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) Solid statistical sampling Advanced engineering models Empirical measurements of real
activities
The need for monitoring (approaches)
Bottom-up: Good for the evaluation of specific project/program achievements, but expensive
Top-down: Inexpensive, but does not give answer on the root cause of improvements
Affordability of monitoring is crucial
The need for monitoring (three issues to solve)
Clear Energy Efficiency Goals Measurement Methodology Evaluation Definitions
See also: Measurement is critical to understanding, Palenc 2010, J.L. Stoops, R.A. Rooth
Example 1 Energy performance standard versus actual energy consumption
Evolution of annual natural gas consumption per dwelling in The Netherlands (heating and DHW)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6
EPC value
Natu
ral g
as c
onsu
mpt
ion
per d
wel
ling
Gas consumption nominal [m3] Gas consumption real [m3]Linear (Gas consumption nominal [m3]) Linear (Gas consumption real [m3])
Reasons:- Average house size increased from 165 m2 to 198 m2. (+ 20%)- Increased use of DHW
Other effects:Amount of inhabitants per dwelling decreased by 5% (total housing stock)therefore 5% more dwellings (and energy consumption) for the same population
Example 2: New neighbour- hood with district heating
Zuidbroek
Example 2: Dwellings connected to DH
Dwellings in Zuidbroek
20
323
514
607
880928
20
303
191
93
273
48
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
dw
ellin
gs
bu
ilt
total dwellings
dwellings delivered
Example 2: Monitoring Results
17000 GJ heat annually, enough for 530 dwellings?)
Example 2: Heat demand dwellings
Annual heat consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Every dot is one building
GJ
per
year
Houses with currently known gross floor area
173
168 181
165
181 179 202
243
Average is 32 GJ/(dwelling*year)
Equals about 1000 m3 natural gas
Example 2: District heating results raw data
Example 2: District heating summary 2010
30% more natural gas consumption than reference situation with high efficiency boilers in every house
Reasons: 51% heat loss because of start-up phase heating
grid (<25% expected when complete) Biofuel peak boiler not yet in place (2.5 MW
expected by end of 2011 Average 550 kW instead of 1 MW of biogas
related heat
Example 2: expected end situation
Energy consumption and production Zuidbroek
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
En
erg
y in
GJ
Energy consumption dwellings Zuidbroek Biogas contribution max
Woodchips boiler contribution max Energy production
Eprimair fossil
Based on 2010 profile
1 MWth biogas, 2,5 MWth woodchips, 2500 dwellings, 25% losses
Example 2: Expected end situation summary and conclusions
Summary: More than 20% better EPC for 2500 dwellings
Conclusions for this example: Building crisis delayed reaching of expected
situation Heat losses become a more and more important
issue for modern housing districts Dutch approach of having green heat affecting
the EPC results in a situation where the number of dwellings connected affects the registered performance
Conclusions
The two examples prove the need for monitoring as a means to redirect developments and testing of assumptions
Experience shows that ease of access to data should be improved, while respecting privacy issues
Better regulation of data access could dramatically reduce cost of bottom-up approach monitoring and therefore acceleration of the learning curve
Without more attention to monitoring, the EU will probably not reach its energy efficiency goals.