Monitoring and Early Warning in...2 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In January 2015, according to long-term observations,

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST

Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

MONTHLY REPORT JANUARY 2015

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

1

Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015

2


GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In January 2015, according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall,

frost and avalanches.

WEATHER

Temperatures in January will be 1-20C above the norm in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces and in lower

elevations of DRD. Temperatures will be 2-30C above the long-term averages in GBAO and higher elevations

of DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal throughout the country.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in December increased by 11.7 percent compared to November 2014. The water level in

the Nurek reservoir in December was 7.15 meters lower than in November 2014. From October 1, 2014, the

supply of electricity was limited across districts due to the reduction of water flow from the Vakhsh River and

the need to fill the Nurek reservoir for winter.

FOOD SECURITY

In January, regional food availability will remain good due to the local wheat harvest and imports from

Kazakhstan. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan.

HEALTH

The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, increases with the beginning of the cold season.

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

With the onset of cold weather and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities

of labor migrants, seasonal migration has declined. In December the number of labor migrants decreased by

13.5 in comparison with November 2014.

ECONOMY

The GDP totaled 40,632.5 million TJS (8,273.5 million USD) for January-November 2014. Industrial

production increased by 5.0 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 6.8

percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 9.3 billion TJS (1,894.1 million

USD) for eleven months of 2014. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,036.6

million USD). In January-November 2014, foreign trade turnover was equal to 4,854.2 million USD, 7.5

percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 888.6 million USD, and imports totaled 3,965.6

million USD.

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Contents

1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4

1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015 ......................................................................... 4

1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014 ......................................................................................... 4

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................... 5

2.1. Forecast for January 2015 ................................................................................................... 5

2.2. Weather summary for December 2014. ............................................................................... 5

3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6

3.2. Natural and liquefied gas ..................................................................................................... 7

3.3. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 7

3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ........................................................................ 7

4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 9

4.1. Food Security Reports ......................................................................................................... 9

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices .............................................................................................................. 9

4.3. Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 10

5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 12

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 13

6.1. General Trends .................................................................................................................. 13

6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 15

6.3. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 16

6.4. Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 17

Annex A - Weather forecast for January 2015 ................................................................................. 18

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in January 2015

According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the

Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the

Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, there is a

risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost and avalanches in January 2015.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in January 2000-2014

Causes of Natural disasters

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Total

Earthquake 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 2 2 24

Landslide, rockfall 2 2

Avalanche 1 1 3 1 6

Snowfall, frost 3 9 1 13

Total 1 3 14 1 2 3 2 2 4 5 5 3 45

1.2 Natural disasters in December 2014

IMAC/CoES reported that in December 2014, there were 3 cases of natural disasters,

including destruction of a bank canal, one case-because of the collapse on the highway

and heavy snowfall and fog on the highway:

On December 2, there was destruction of canal banks and water discharge from the river

as a result of the canal clogging in the Balkhak village of Shahrinav district. There were no

casualties or damage;

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On December 25 at 20:10, due to snowfall and fog, a car with «Tekamobail» company’s

employees was trapped on the highway in the territory of Roghun district. At 23:50 the car

and passengers were found and delivered to Obigarm. There were no casualties;

From December 26 at 11:30 until December 28 at 17:15, road traffic on the highway in

Saripul-Navobod in Rasht district was blocked as a result of the landslide.

For more detailed and recent information on the review of natural disasters in December

2014 contact the MEWS Center Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1

2.1. Forecast for January 2015

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center,

the average monthly temperature in January 2015

will be:

1-20C above the climatic norm in Khatlon and

Sughd Provinces and lower elevations of the

Direct Ruled Districts (DRD);

2-30C above the long term average in the Gorno-

Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and

the higher elevations of DRD.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than

the norm throughout the country (See Annex A for

a more detailed forecast for January 2015.)

2.2. Weather summary for December 2014.

In December, the average monthly temperature at lower elevations was within the norm;

in mountainous and foothills areas, 1-20C below the norm; and in GBAO, 2-40C above the

norm. The temperature was:

at lower elevations and in the foothills, from 0°C to 6°C;

at higher elevations, from -1°C to -6°C (in Darvoz 2°C);

at higher elevations of GBAO, from-12°C to -17°C.

Warm weather was observed during December 1-2, 15-17 and 27-31, when the daily

temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD increased to 13-18 0С.

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency

of Tajikistan.

Table 2. The average expected precipitation – January 2015

Regions Precipitation

Khatlon

Province

Lower

elevations 43-82 mm

Foothills 86-102 mm

Sughd

Province

Lower

elevations 10-39 mm

Higher elevations

9-18 mm

DRD

Lower

elevations 43-82 mm

Higher elevations

39-150 mm

GBAO West 20-56 mm

East 5-20 mm

mailto:[email protected]

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The lowest air temperatures were observed during December 3-4, 8-9, 18, when the

temperature in the lower elevations of Khatlon province and DRD fell from 6 to 90C in the

afternoon and from 0 to -50C at night. Cold weather was observed during the first half of

the month in Sughd province, when the temperature did not rise above -1 + 40C. At night

the temperature dropped to -60C -110C. The average

daily temperature was 1-50C below the long-term

averages.

Monthly precipitation mostly was below the norm, but

in some areas was within the norm (see Table 3.)

3. ENERGY

3.1. Electricity Generation2

According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in

December 2014 was 1,427 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 46.0 million kW/h per day.

Electricity generation in December increased by 11.7 percent (41.2 million kW/h)

compared to November 2014.

Electricity generation in December 2014 was 8.4 million kW/h less than in the same period

of the last year (see Section 3.5 below). For more detailed information on electricity

generation contact the MEWS Center at [email protected].

Total Electricity Generation – January 2011 – December 2014 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System

(MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

Table 3. Monthly Precipitation

Regions Less than norm %

Sughd Province 26-130%

Khatlon Province 52-112%

DRD 68-119%

Western GBAO 36-120%

Eastern GBAO 26%


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3.2. Natural and liquefied gas

The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with

completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012.

Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational

data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan,

enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 225,164 tons of liquefied gas from

January to December 2014, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of

Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 11,472 tons more than

during the same period of 2013. In December 2014 liquefied gas imports totaled 20,261

tons, which is 1,214 tons less than in December of the previous year.

More than 50 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel.

According to the information published on the «Asia Plus» website of Media Group,

"Faroz" Company, the main supplier of liquefied natural gas to Tajikistan, intends to

reduce the retail price of this type of fuel by 0.7 TJS (about $ 0.13.) For more detailed

information please visit:

http://news.tj/ru/news/faroz-reshila-snizit-stoimost-szhizhennogo-gaza-v-tadzhikistane

3.3. Coal

According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RT, 70,007.4 tons of coal

were produced in December 2014, which is 46,323 tons less than in November 2014. From

January-December 2014, 878,131 tons of coal were produced in Tajikistan—356,693 tons

or 168.4 percent more than in the same period of the previous year. Coal production has

increased due to the commissioning of the first unit of the “Dushanbe-2” thermal power

plant and a shift in the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas

and electricity to more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing

coal into gas for TALCO activities).

3.4. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant3

The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of water in the Nurek

Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of December 2014 compared to the average

volume over the last nine years (2004 to 2013). At the end of December 2014, the water

level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 897.14 meters above sea level, which is 7.15 meters

lower than in November 2014, 2.22 meters higher than in the same period of the previous

year, and 40.14 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In

December 2014, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 210 m3/sec, 5.4

percent less compared to the same period of the last year.

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

http://news.tj/ru/news/faroz-reshila-snizit-stoimost-szhizhennogo-gaza-v-tadzhikistane

8


Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek

HPP. At the end of December 2014, the water inflow was 217 m3/sec, which is 13.4 m3/sec

above the average of 203.6 m3/sec for 2004-2013.

Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water

discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of December 2014 amounted to 472

m3/sec, which is lower than the 9-year-old average of 570.5 m3/sec.

Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

9


4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important

imported food products are grain and flour. During January-November 2014, 686.1

thousand tons of grain at an average price of 299 USD per ton and 170.9 thousand tons of

flour at an average price of 411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 12

percent more grain and 18.3 percent less flour compared to the same period of the

previous year.

In December 2014 the prices of wheat flour remained stable in the country’s markets. As

of January 2, 2015, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced

first grade flour is 154.5 TJS (29.2 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in

Kazakhstan is 159.12 TJS (30.0 USD.)

In January-November 2014, the average price of imported oil products was 877 USD per

ton, a decrease of 16.4 percent compared to January-November of the previous year.

During this period 516.3 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic,

190.5 thousand tons more than in the last year. Those imports included 219.2 thousand

tons of diesel fuel imported at an average price of 857 USD per ton and 219.8 thousand

tons of gasoline at an average price of 793 USD per ton. For more detailed information

please contact the MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan, this year cereals

were sown on 309,738 hectares (ha) of land. As of January 1, 2015, the grain harvest was

899,112 thousand tons (17.241 thousand tons less than for the same period of the

previous year). The average yield per hectare was 2.62 tons, 0.05 tons more than in the

same period of the previous year. Wheat was sown on 214.881 hectares (ha) of land. The

wheat harvest was 624.903 tons, 26.698 tons less than for the same period of the

previous year. The average yield per hectare was 2.93 tons, 0.04 tons more than in the

same period of the previous year.

For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at:

[email protected].

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4

First Grade Wheat Flour

The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and

Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2008 to the end of December 2014. In December

2014 a decline in wheat flour prices was observed in Dushanbe, and prices remained the

same in Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with November.

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/



http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in

Gharm and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In

December 2014, wheat flour prices remained unchanged in Khorog and Gharm in

comparison with November.

First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel Prices

In December 2014 a decline in gasoline and diesel fuel prices was observed in Dushanbe,

and Khujand markets. Prices remained unchanged in Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison

with November.

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Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2008 – December 2014 (TJS/liter)

12


5. HEALTH

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, as of

December 31, 2014, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable

infectious diseases are relatively good. Compared to the same period of 2013, there is:

a comparative decline in the number of cases of intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, including acute intestinal infections;

a comparative reduction in

the number of cases of

Typhoid fever;

a reduction in the number of viral hepatitis cases;

a reduction in the number

of cases of acute

respiratory viral infections;

a comparative increase in


Brucellosis;



Pertussis;



Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF);


registration of bites by wild and domestic animals;

a comparative increase in the number of cases of Anthrax.

With the beginning of the cold season, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections—

including the flu—increases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is

assessed as auspicious.

Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for January-December 2014 in comparison with the same period of the last year

# Name of disease 2013 2014 Change (-), (+)

1 Typhoid Fever 161 87 -74

2 Acute intestinal infections

58112 48053 -10059

3 Dysentery 1198 1036 -162

4 Brucellosis 840 923 +83

5 Pertussis 2 5 +3

6 Anthrax 32 33 +1

7 Bites and Saliva Contact 14134 14322 +188

8 Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF)

5 15 +10

9 Tuberculosis 4492 4147 -345

10 Acute respiratory infections

236223 226421 -9802

11 Flu 14626 4351 -10275

Table 5. Expected risks in January 2015 and recommended appropriate measures

Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures

The risk of rising incidence of acute respiratory viral infections remains high due to the onset of cold weather.

Avoid close contact with people who have fever and cough. Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in crowded places. Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and

13


6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General Trends

National economic development remained stable and economic growth continued to

increase over the past eleven months of the current year. The Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) of the Republic increased by 6.6 percent compared to the same period of 2013 and

amounted to 40,632.5 million TJS (8,273.5 million USD). The growth rate of GDP compared

to the corresponding period of 2013 decreased by 0.7 percent. The deflator index of prices

totaled 106.3 percent. GDP per capita increased from the same period of 2013 by 436.7

TJS (88.9 USD), or 9.9 percent, and totaled 4,860.5 TJS (989.7 USD).

The gross domestic product of the Republic during this period was mainly due to the

development of industries at 105%, agriculture-103.3%, investments in fixed capital-

130.5%, freight transport-102.8%, retail trade-105.8% and paid services-101.3%.

During the first eleven months of 2014, industrial enterprises produced goods worth

9,241.6 million TJS (1,881.8 million USD), 5.0 percent more than in the same period of

2013. Growth in industrial production in January-November of 2014, compared with the

same period of 2013, is due to the significant growth in: mining industries – 25.3 percent,

manufacturing – 0.9 percent, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and

water – 6.2 percent. The mining industry’s share of industrial output was 13.9 percent, the

manufacturing sector’s share (food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries)

was 65.2 percent, and the share of the production and distribution of electricity, gas and

water supply, 20.9 percent.

The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in January-November of

2014 increased by 3.3 percent compared to the same period of last year. 94.0 percent of

nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick

person. Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise.

An outbreak of food poisoning (botulism.) Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use.

Examination of the data of last 4-5 years show that in the period from January to March, an increase in the number of treated bites from stray dogs is observed. It is connected with the dogs’ mating season.

Strengthen control over stray animals. If necessary, take measures for the capture and isolation of stray dogs. Vaccinate domestic animals. Immediately go to the nearest hospital in the event of an animal bite.

14


agricultural output is in the private sector. Gross agricultural product in the reporting

period amounted to 18,955.9 million TJS (3,859.7 million USD), including crop

production—13,664.3 million TJS (2,782.3 million USD), or 1.9 percent more, and

livestock—5,291.6 million TJS (1,077.4 million USD), or 6.8 percent more.

In the first eleven months of 2014, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance

amounted to 6,330.0 million TJS or 1,288.9 million USD, 30.5 percent more than in the

same period of the previous year. From January to November 2014 3,158.2 million TJS

(643.1 million USD) (or 49.9 percent) were invested in production facilities. 3,171.8 million

TJS (645.8 million USD), or 50.1 percent of total investment in the country, were invested

in non-production facilities. Most investments, 44.1 percent, were made in the public

sector. The private sector accounted for 28.6 percent, joint ventures accounted for 7.1

percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 20.2 percent. 1079.0 million TJS (219.7

million USD) were invested in the construction of energy facilities, 28 percent more

compared with the same period of the previous year.

For the first eleven months of the current year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector

amounted to 6.8 percent in comparison with December 2013. The main contributors to

inflation were food products—8.7 percent, paid services—6.6 percent, and non-food

products—3.1 percent.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the total State budget

amounted to 11,779.2 million TJS (2,398.5 million USD) in the first eleven months of 2014,

or 29 percent of GDP.

The total volume of credit balances as of January 1, 2015, (data for November 2014) has

amounted to 9.3 billion TJS (1,894.1 million USD). Compared with the same time of the

previous year, it has increased by 25.8 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly

to increasing balances of loans in national currency by 25.5 percent. The volume of loans

to economic sectors for this period amounted to 10.0 billion TJS (2,036.6 million USD),

increasing by 26.6 percent in comparison with the same period of 2013. The volume of

repaid loans reached 8.2 billion TJS (1,670.1 million USD), which is 81.7 percent of the

total issued credits for this period.

Foreign trade accounted for 24.1% of total loans, industry - 11.3%, agricultural sector -

12.7%, consumption - 15.7%, construction - 17.2%, financial intermediation - 1.2% and

other sectors - 7.9%. At the same time, the development of credit investments for

business activities in the country remains the primary priority of monetary policy. From

the total volume of loans granted by the banking system 45.7% were sent to national

entrepreneurs.

The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote

mountainous regions, continues to be a priority and important part of the country’s

banking system. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement

this national priority. At the end of November 2014, microloans totaled 4.3 billion TJS

15


(875.8 million USD), increasing by 39.1 percent in comparison with the same period of

2013. In distant high elevations of the country microloans of 1.0 billion TJS (203.7 million

USD) were made, 27.4 percent more than in the same period of 2013.

Total volume of credits and loans

*-data for 01.01.2015

From January-November 2014, foreign trade turnover amounted to 4,854.2 million USD.

Compared with the same period of 2013, it increased by 7.5 percent. Goods exports

amounted to 888.6 million USD. Imports amounted to 3,965.6 million USD. Negative

balance of foreign trade turnover totaled 3,077.0 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration of Population

According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of

the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, in January-December 2014 a total of 834,058

persons left Tajikistan, 13.5 percent less than in the same period of 2013. 606,527 persons

returned to the country.

The reduction in labor migration is due to the cold weather, new regulations for entrance

into the Russian Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and

amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor

migrants from foreign countries.

According to the information published on the "Asia Plus" website of Media Group,

migratory flow to Russia will drop by 70% in 2015 in comparison with 2014. For more

detailed information, please visit: http://asiaplus.tj/ru/news/v-fms-soobshchili-o-

snizhenii-migratsionnogo-potoka-v-rossiyu-v-2015-godu-na-70

http://asiaplus.tj/ru/news/v-fms-soobshchili-o-snizhenii-migratsionnogo-potoka-v-rossiyu-v-2015-godu-na-70

http://asiaplus.tj/ru/news/v-fms-soobshchili-o-snizhenii-migratsionnogo-potoka-v-rossiyu-v-2015-godu-na-70

16


The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2009 - 2014 chart below provides

a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2009 to 2014.

The Total Labor Migration for 2009-2014 chart below indicates that the total level of labor

migration in 2014 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2013.

6.3. Employment

According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor,

Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 112,634

citizens applied to the Agency for help in 2014. Of this number, 72,409 individuals were

registered as job seekers, and 51,248 individuals were recognized as officially

unemployed. For twelve months of this year, 38,911 people were provided with jobs with

the assistance of the employment services, which is 34.5 percent of the total number of all

citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number of people with jobs

were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary technical training or

had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low level of wages offered

by employers.

17


During January-December 2014, unemployment benefits totaling 3,890 thousand TJS

(792.3 thousand USD) were paid to 8,465 people. As of January 1, 2015, a total of 83,891

persons were registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 55,502 registered

as unemployed and including those persons remaining from 2014. During 2014, 18,226

people were sent to vocational training, 4,685 people were provided with social-paid jobs,

and 3,751 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses.

According to the State Agency for Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT,

during 2014, 251,570 new jobs were created, which is 22.5 percent more than in the same

period of the previous year (205,333).

6.4. Exchange Rate

The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate

and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for

December 31, 2014, increased and was 5.3079 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an

average market exchange rate of 5.45 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in

Tajikistan on December 31, 2014.

Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, June 2008 – December 2014

18


Annex A - Weather forecast for January 2015

Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD)

The average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1-20С above the norm and will be

2 to 30С at lower elevations and -1 to -30С in the foothills. The warmest weather is

expected in the first five days and part of the month when the temperature in the

afternoon may rise up to 12-170C at lower elevations and up to 7-120C in the foothills.

Other days the temperature may be from 0-50C to 5-100C at lower elevations and from 0-

50C to -3-20С in the foothills. The temperature fluctuation is expected to be 0-50C to 0-50C

at lower elevations and foothills at night. The temperature is expected to drop to -5-100C

on some days.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be less than normal (norm: 43-82 mm, 28-46mm on

South, 86-102 mm in the foothills).

On some days, winds may to increase up to 12-17 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Sughd Province

The monthly average temperature is expected to be 1-20C above the normal range. The

temperature will be from -1 to 10С at lower elevations and foothills and from -1 to -60С at

higher elevations. The temperature is expected to be 0-50С at lower elevations in the

afternoon. The temperature may decrease to -2 to 30C. Temperature fluctuation is

expected with temperatures from 0 -50C to -3-80C at night. At higher elevations, the

temperature fluctuation is expected to be from 0-+50C to -50C in the afternoon and from -

3-80C to -8-130C at night. The warmest weather is expected at the end of the month at

lower elevations when the temperature may rise up to 6-110C in the afternoon and up to -

1-40С at night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: at lower elevations and

foothills 10 to 39 mm; in the mountains, 9 to 18 mm.)

On some days, wind may to increase up to 17-22 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO

The monthly average temperature is expected to be 2-30C above the norm and will be

from 0 to -50C. Temperature variation is expected to be: from 0 to 50C to 0 to -50C in the

afternoon, from -1 to 60C to -4 to 90C at night, and in some places from -10 to -150C .

Monthly precipitation is expected to be below the norm (norm: in the Western regions of

GBAO is 20 to 56mm, in DRD – 39 to 150mm).

On some days, winds may to increase up to 12-17 m/sec. Fog can also be expected.

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Eastern Regions of GBAO

Monthly average temperature is expected to be 2-30C above the climatic norm and will be

from -10 to -150C. Sharp fluctuation in temperature is expected from -13 -180C to -19 -

240C at night. In some places the temperature may drop from -27 to -320C, and from -4 to

-90C to -7 to -120C in the afternoon.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be above the norm (norm: 5-20 mm.)

20


The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working group include the following organizations and institutions:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT

Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT

Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT

Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT

Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan

Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan

Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

Agency on statistics under President of RT

Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

National Bank of Tajikistan

Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT

OJHC «Barqi Tojik»

OJSC «Tajiktransgaz»

Hydrometeorology Government institution

Agency of Labor and Employment

Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan

The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MERT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website:

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

and

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

Documents

Monitoring and Early Warning in...2 Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - January 2015 GENERAL TRENDS NATURAL HAZARDS In January 2015, according to long-term observations,