Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Monetary Policy Update September 2012. Repo rate cut Counteracts low inflation ahead. Continued unease on financial markets . Source: Reuters EcoWin. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturity, per cent. Structural problems in Europe. Unit labour cost Index , 1999 = 100. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Monetary Policy Update
September 2012
Repo rate cut
Counteracts low inflation ahead
Continued unease on financial markets
Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturity, per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
07 08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
Germany
Sweden
Structural problems in Europe
Source: OECDUnit labour costIndex, 1999 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Italy
Spain
Germany
Greece
Weak developments in euro area
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
The world
USA
Euro area
Swedish economy relatively strong
GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
07 09 11 13 15
July
September
Growth dampened in coming period
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Index, average = 100, standard deviation = 10
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
The Economic TendencyIndicatorMean
+/- one standarddeviation
Stronger krona
Competition-weighted nominal exchange rate, TCW, Index, 18 Nov 1992 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
110
120
130
140
150
160
110
120
130
140
150
160
07 09 11 13 15
July
September
Labour market in line with expectations
Per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, quarterly data,seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
07 09 11 13 15
July
September
Lower inflationary pressure
Weak growth in the coming period Good productivity growth Stronger krona
Lower repo rate
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
July
September
Inflation rising towards the target
Annual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 09 11 13 15
CPIF
CPI
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
07 09 11 13 15
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
A forecast, not a promise
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
Repo rate cut
Counteracts low inflation ahead
