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Moldova: Small country with big geopolitical
roleMonika Begovic PhD
International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova28 November 2016
New geopolitical challenges
• Interests of great powers in today’s world create a more challenging environment for small countries (small powers?) • Consequence:Small countries need to keep options open and to balance multiple relationships;Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of great powers
New geopolitical challenges
Moldova is a small state Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA?
• Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and West;• It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and the
West;• Moldova today is in the ‘grey zone’ between Western (EU and NATO) and
Russian influence
Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed for influence in Moldova
New geopolitical challenges
Moldova and its geopolitical role:• there’s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the
West over the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union • the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was
considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey• Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of
Odessa and to the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed
Geopolitical challenges - Russia
Russia and Moldova
• Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage
Geopolitical implications
• Russia doesn’t want Moldova to orientate towards the West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between itself and NATO• Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's
financial sector – media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's banking sector is controlled by Russian capital
Geopolitical implications
Transnistria
After the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in March 2014 the head of the Transnistrian parliament asked to join the Russian Federation
Geopolitical challenges - West
Role of the West:
• the country has(d) pro-Western orientation:• relations with NATO through PfP – no plans to join due to
Moldova’s neutrality• striving for EU membership relations between Moldova and the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with countries bordering its member states
Moldova & EU
Eastern Partnership (EaP) • specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association and economic integration of eastern European partner countries. • governs its relationship with the post-Soviet
states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine• provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic
strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its eastern neighbors
Geopolitical implications
Romania and Moldova
• Is there still a desire of Moldovan people for a unification with Romania?
On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova
Internal political development
Presidential elections:
• Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from Europe?• Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary
and Poland?• the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of
Moldovan orientation towards East or West
Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by citizens rather than being chosen by parliament
Elections
• Moldova’s presidential election are shaping the country’s politics and international orientation
pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background, President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia and makes the economy of Moldova grow
Igor Dodon’s campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored economic bloc instead:Igor Dodon said the election “mark a new beginning” for a country blighted by poverty and graft
• The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties
with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union
• Headline: “Moldova’s head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections”.
Political system of Moldova
Moldova is a parliamentary republic;But: the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead: i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve the assembly in certain situationsAnd:Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for almost 2 years
Geopolitical implications
President vs. Government
Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro-European stance of the current government
Plans after elections?
Obvious political message:
Presidential elections aren’t key elections, but they’re a means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will mean something — at the parliamentary elections in 2018 Russia will use this
Reflections...
Benefits for Croatia for entering the EU:
• Rule of law• Fight against corruption• Freedom of movement (soon Schengen)• Structural funds• Bigger market• Safety and stability• Participation in the European Parliament and European Commission
and other bodies
Moldova – what next...
Moldova must continue to balance between its Eastern and Western neighbors and
continue to carry out reforms.Reforms cannot be taken from some other country,
they have to be carried out by the people of the country!
Moldova – what next...
- ‘Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics’
Moldova...
Thank you!