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Modernisation and secularisation quantified
Modernisation and secularisation quantified
Marion BurkimsherMarion BurkimsherObservatoire des Religions,Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, SwitzerlandUniversity of Lausanne, Switzerland
Marion BurkimsherMarion BurkimsherObservatoire des Religions,Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, SwitzerlandUniversity of Lausanne, Switzerland
Modernization and secularization quantified
Modernization and secularization quantified
Marion BurkimsherMarion BurkimsherObservatoire des Religions,Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, SwitzerlandUniversity of Lausanne, Switzerland
Marion BurkimsherMarion BurkimsherObservatoire des Religions,Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, SwitzerlandUniversity of Lausanne, Switzerland
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
All countries moved from left to right, ie to a higher HDI, except Belarus and Russia
Measure of modernisationMeasure of modernisation: the Human Development Index: the Human Development Index
Composite indicator (max. 100) combining measures of:Composite indicator (max. 100) combining measures of:• Health: life expectancy at birthHealth: life expectancy at birth• Education: adult literacy and school enrolmentEducation: adult literacy and school enrolment• Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP)Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP)
Measure of secularisationMeasure of secularisation: attendance at religious services: attendance at religious services
World Values Survey: World Values Survey:
data from 4 waves 1981, 1990, 1999, 2006data from 4 waves 1981, 1990, 1999, 2006
Attendance at religious service: Attendance at religious service:
at least once a month = attenderat least once a month = attender
Any religion, self-defined by respondentAny religion, self-defined by respondent
45 countries: needed to have HDI data and WVS data 45 countries: needed to have HDI data and WVS data
for 2 years, so that a trend could be plotted for 2 years, so that a trend could be plotted
Highly developed countries are over-representedHighly developed countries are over-represented
Because of measurement and sampling issues, any data Because of measurement and sampling issues, any data
point can have a wide margin of uncertaintypoint can have a wide margin of uncertainty
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1981-1984
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
% attenders
Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada,Denmark, France, Great Britain, Hungary,Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United States (19 countries)
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1981-1984
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
% attenders
Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada,Denmark, France, Great Britain, Hungary,Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United States (19 countries)
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1989-1993
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
% attenders
Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Belarus, Canada, Chile, China, Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Great Britain, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Latvia, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United States (37 countries)
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1995-2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
% attendersArgentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Belarus, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Great Britain, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Latvia, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United States, Viet Nam(45 countries)
Religiosity - Human Development Index 2005-2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
% attenders
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Finland, France, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Mexico, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia,South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United States, Viet Nam (33 countries)
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is widevalues is wide
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
The area between the black dashed lines can be considered The area between the black dashed lines can be considered the “natural level” of religiosity of a population given its the “natural level” of religiosity of a population given its level of development. level of development. This “This “normal bandnormal band” is roughly the trendline +/- 10%” is roughly the trendline +/- 10%
These countries have been in the “These countries have been in the “normal bandnormal band” at some ” at some point:point:
India, Turkey, Brazil, Iran, Romania, South Korea, India, Turkey, Brazil, Iran, Romania, South Korea, Hungary, Slovenia, Great Britain, Belgium, Australia, Hungary, Slovenia, Great Britain, Belgium, Australia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Finland, Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Finland, Norway, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland (21 countries)Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland (21 countries)
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
These countries have been These countries have been aboveabove the “ the “normal bandnormal band” and ” and their most recent trend is their most recent trend is downwardsdownwards::
Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Malta, Poland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Malta, Poland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Canada, United States, Australia (16 countries)Spain, Canada, United States, Australia (16 countries)
However, these countries are above the “normal band” but However, these countries are above the “normal band” but have not seen recent falls:have not seen recent falls:
South Africa, Nigeria, South Korea, Italy, Portugal South Africa, Nigeria, South Korea, Italy, Portugal (5 countries)(5 countries)
Exceptions to prove the rule?Exceptions to prove the rule?
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
These countries were initially These countries were initially belowbelow the “ the “normal bandnormal band” ” but are now but are now closercloser to it (most have seen to it (most have seen risesrises in in attendance rates):attendance rates):
Moldova, Viet Nam, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Viet Nam, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Finland Latvia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Finland (11 countries)(11 countries)
Only Bulgaria is the exception to this pattern, having Only Bulgaria is the exception to this pattern, having moved a little further away from the “normal band”moved a little further away from the “normal band”
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is widevalues is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards thisconvergence towards this
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is widevalues is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards thisconvergence towards this
Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then been followed by renewed revival, which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romaniaband”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania
Religiosity-Human Development Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96HDI
% attenders
Nigeria
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Malta
Ireland
United States
Poland
Brazil
S Korea
Mexico
Italy
RomaniaTurkey
IranPortugal
Hungary Great Britain
Czech RepRussia
Latvia
BelarusChina
Viet Nam
Ukraine
Moldova
Bulgaria
Canada
Austria
Spain
Argentina
South AfricaPeru
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is widevalues is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards thisconvergence towards this
Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then been followed by renewed revival, which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romaniaband”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania
Conclusion 4: Many countries are approaching maximum Conclusion 4: Many countries are approaching maximum development (as defined by the HDI), but the minimum development (as defined by the HDI), but the minimum attendance rates would appear to be around 10-20% of the attendance rates would appear to be around 10-20% of the populationpopulation
Possible feedback mechanismsPossible feedback mechanisms
• HealthHealth: more religious people tend to have healthier lifestyles - less : more religious people tend to have healthier lifestyles - less smoking, drinking, promiscuity, greater social cohesionsmoking, drinking, promiscuity, greater social cohesion
• EducationEducation: in highly educated countries, young people are more : in highly educated countries, young people are more likely to be attenders if they have either a likely to be attenders if they have either a highhigh education or a education or a lowlow educational leveleducational level
• WealthWealth: in highly developed countries, individuals in wealthier : in highly developed countries, individuals in wealthier households are less likely to be attendershouseholds are less likely to be attenders
• Less developed countries attract Less developed countries attract aidaid, often delivered by religious , often delivered by religious organisationsorganisations
• ImmigrationImmigration: highly developed countries attract immigrants who : highly developed countries attract immigrants who bring their higher religiosity with thembring their higher religiosity with them
• FertilityFertility: in highly developed countries, attenders have a higher : in highly developed countries, attenders have a higher fertility than secular peoplefertility than secular people
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
198119821983198419891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Austria
Australia
Canada
SloveniaSpain
Netherlands
Belgium Switzerland
Great Britain
FinlandNorway
France
Japan
SwedenIceland
Denmark
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
198119821983198419891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Austria
Australia
Canada
SloveniaSpain
Netherlands
Belgium Switzerland
Great Britain
FinlandNorway
France
Japan
SwedenIceland
Denmark
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
198119821983198419891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Austria
Australia
Canada
SloveniaSpain
Netherlands
Belgium Switzerland
Great Britain
FinlandNorway
France
Japan
SwedenIceland
Denmark
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
What next?What next?
As many developed countries are approaching “maximum As many developed countries are approaching “maximum development” as defined by the HDI, what new factors development” as defined by the HDI, what new factors will come into play?will come into play?
The HDI does not consider other measures of The HDI does not consider other measures of “development”, such as urbanisation, “development”, such as urbanisation, (tele)communications, insecurity…(tele)communications, insecurity…