Modern Risk in Risk Society

Karri LiikkanenUniversity of Helsinki

Second Internation Education Forum 2013Huntington Beach, California

17.12.2013

Ulrich Beck

Risk Society

• Beck: Risk Society 1986• Risk surpasses wealth as a factor that defines

life and economics– > Distribution of risk instead of wealth• Industrial society defined by wealth, risk society by risk• Fundamental change in economics

Risk as risk analysts see it

• The degree of risk is a function of two things: probability and harm. Risk analysts typically calculate the degree of risk by multiplying the harm of the bad event with its probability (which is expressed either as a percentage or, more typically, as a decimal fraction, i.e., a number between 0 and 1).

Risk in the Beckian sense

• “Risk may be defined as a systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization itself.”– > Beck-rick is always a product of the modernization

process– In Beckian sense the risk analysis breaks down, as risks

are complex and apocalyptic– Good example is energy, as the constant need of

energy is an insecurity induced by modernization.

Modernization

• Broad term for the society becoming more and more complex. For us it is most important to note 2 things:– It is impossible to really measure the risks within it

– they are too complex– Also that a modernized society produces risks

systematically.

Measurement

• Chernobyl 1985– WHO: deaths from the accident at 56 and from

radiation to 9,000– Greenpeace: 250,000 cancers and 100,000 deaths

from cancer– Russian professor Aleksei Jablokov: 900,000

deaths

Risk Production

• Society produces risks, because its constant needs need to be satisfied. From this follows an interesting contradiction: destruction of the earth destroys the value of goods, but the justification of destruction comes from the supposed growth of the value of goods.

• Science is part of the modernized society – it is blind to the risks and unable to act on them

• What has created the wealth in the developed countries?

• Technology• Technology from the point of view of economics:

“technology is knowledge of how to transform raw materials into goods that consumers use to fulfill their needs”– > Technology fuels economic growth, which creates wealth.AND– > Technology needs economic growth, as it demands

resources which the economic growth can deliver

Risk as Part of the System (Society)

Fukushima 11.3.2011

• Both “traditional” and Beckian risk– Earthquake AND nuclear power plant – traditional

and Beckian risk are intertwined– Just as Chernobyl 26 years earlier: very difficult to

measure the actual effects and consequences

Hard to measure and to predict

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Black Swans• E.g. after Fukushima Japanese politicians

made statements saying that it was impossible to predict the disaster– > OR

Were precautions just not taken?

Measures to face the risks• Policies. As mentioned by e.g. Mr. Costas Grigoropoulos on

our first day, when there is a crisis, the system reacts to it by funding the clean energies more. Other policy measure is e.g. emission regulations– > Too little too late?– Out of the box thinking needed?– Education is a conservative system, as mentioned by Mr. Timo

Airaksinen– Also the problem of being “Locked in“ (as mentioned by Mr. Jan

Ossenbrink)– Humans as species are prone to choose the short term profit– Working together (as mentioned by the Toyota representative this

morning

Emission Regulations

Forum Scope• Human beings have acquired “Energy” in search of a 2S society that ensures　“Safety” and

“Sustainability”. Subsequently, we enhanced “Economic” activity through the Industrial Revolution, and now face “Environmental” problems. Since the 1970’s, our country has developed by harmonizing the 3E through policy measures, according to the requests of the times, and has come to play international roles taking 2S for granted. The Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 made not only Japan but also the entire world recognize once again the importance of 2S that underlie 3E.

• The reconstruction and development of Japan require the harmony of 3E which is different from the historical pre-quake experiences. The balance among 3E that premise on 2S depends greatly on social circumstances and regionality, and 2S and 3E constantly cross one another spatio-temporally. Such relationship is not the regular four arithmetic operations, in mathematical terms, but the cross product of 2 vectors with different directionalities. We have just entered the 2S x 3E era.

• ACEEES has expertise in both environment and energy fields, and aims to nurture human resource that can lead the 2S x 3E era, equipped with the bird’s-eye-view to judge the issues that transform spatio-temporally from multifaceted viewpoints, accurate and quick self-reliant ability to extract and resolve issues, and global leadership, so as to lead the innovation.

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