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Modelling distribution impact in
relation to agricultural biodiversity
Andy Jarvis
Bioversity International and
International Centre for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT)
Contents
• What exactly is the issue of climatechange for agriculture?
• Changes in distribution of wild relatives
• Impacts of forestry
• Changes in distribution of crops
• Opportunities from climate change
• Necessary actions to address changes
RECAP – JUST WHAT IS
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THIS CONTEXT
Drought Resistant Beans
What do the 21 models say?
Wet season wetter, dry season drier
Rainfall of driest month
Rainfall of wettest month
IMPACTS ON WILD
RELATIVES
Florunner, with no root-
knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population
density of root-knot
nematodes >90% less
than in Florunner
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
Impact of Climate Change – Biodiversity and Food Security
SpeciesChange in area
of distribution (%)
Predicted state
in 2055
batizocoi -100 Extinct
cardenasii -100 Extinct
correntina -100 Extinct
decora -100 Extinct
diogoi -100 Extinct
duranensis -91 Threatened
glandulifera -17 Stable
helodes -100 Extinct
hoehnii -100 Extinct
kempff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatened
kuhlmannii -100 Extinct
magna -100 Extinct
microsperma -100 Extinct
palustris -100 Extinct
praecox -100 Extinct
stenosperma -86 Threatened
villosa -51 Near-Threatened
Impact of Climate Change – Wild
Peanuts
Impact on PGR
• Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change
• Wild potatoes
• Wild African Vigna
• Wild peanuts
• Why?– Mountain species, lowland
savannah species, broadly adapted species, Latin America, Africa, available datasets
Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
Peanuts
• Shift south and upwards
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35
Latitude
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
A - Peanut
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
-200 300 800 1300 1800 2300
Elevation
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
B - Peanut
Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
Potatoes
• Shift upwards
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40
Latitude
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
C - Potato
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Elevation (m)
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
D - Potato
Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
Vigna
• Shift south/north and especially upwards
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30
Latitude
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
E - Vigna
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Elevation (m)
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
ness /
km
2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
F - Vigna
Summary Impacts
• 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct
• Most species losing over 50% of their range size
• Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct
• For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct
• Range sizes were reduced by approximately 38 to 69%.
• Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus
• Range size was predicted to decrease by 65% (no migration) or increase 8% (unlimited migration)
Priority Species
V. keraudrenii (98%), V. decipiens (85%), V. phoenix (78%), V. procera (64%), V. mungo
(63%), V. angivensis (59%), V. antunesii(56%), V. gazensis (55%), V. platyloba
(51%), V. juncea (50%)
V. monantha (16), V. virescens (38), V. keraudrenii(110), V. phoenix (363), V. mungo (1066), V.
richardsiae (2866), V. bosseri (3686), V. hosei (4387), V. mudenia (9590)
No speciesVigna
S. irosinum (99%), S. hoopesii (97%), S. piurae(96%), S. xsambucinum (96%), S.
paucissectum (95%), S. acroscopicum(95%), S. raquialatum (93%), S. jamesii
(91%), S. arnezii (88%), S. trifidum (85%)
S. irosinum (5), S. paucissectum (5), S. hoopesii(41), S. piurae (87), S. raquialatum (146), S.
longiconicum (179), S. arnezii (193), S. lignicaule (250), S. acroscopicum (422), S.
xsambucinum (475)
S. velardei, S. tarnii, S. xmichoacanum, S. xrechei, S. ugentii, S. chancayense, S.
incamayoensePotato
A. gracilis (99%), A. kretschmeri (99%), A. oteroi(99%), A. matiensis (99%), A. subcoriaceae
(98%), A. triseminata (97%), A. kempff-mercadoi (96%), A. major (96%), A. batizocoi (96%), A. correntina (95%)
A. benthamii (9465), A. cardenasii (5163), A. correntina (3264), A. triseminata (1308), A. matiensis (802), A. batizocoi (717), A. oteroi(609), A. subcoriacea (301), A. gracilis (232)
A. appressipila, A. archeri, A. benensis, A. cryptopotamica, A. douradensis, A. guaranitica, A. hatschbachii, A. helodes, A. hermannii, A. lignosa, A. marginata, A.
palustris, A. setinervosa, A. simpsonii, A. stenophylla, A. magna, A. tuberosa, A. hoehneii, A. burkartii, A. retusa, A. glandulifera, A. paraguariensis, A. pseudovillosa, A. decora
Peanut
10 species with greatest % loss of range area (% loss)
10 species with <10,000 km2 future range area (km2)
Predicted extinction (no future range area)
IMPACTS ON FORESTRY
Provenances P. Tecunumanii
Current Distribution
Provenances P. PatulaCurrent Distribution
Provenances P. Tecunumanii
Future Distribution
Provenances P. PatulaFuture Distribution
P. tecunumanii (Latin America)
Survival probability Growth probability
P. tecunumanii (Africa)
Survival probability Growth probability
IMPACTS ON CROP PRODUCTION
Crop suitability
Lobell – Food Security
Cambio en la adaptabilidad de los cultivos de café
en los Andes.
A2a.cccma.2050
Coffee suitability change vs Altitude
ALTITUDE (meters)
4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000
CO
FF
EE
SU
ITA
BIL
ITY
CH
AN
GE
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
El cambio va desde latitudes medias (trópico) hasta la zona que
pertenece al norte de Argentina.
El 89% del área que cambia la adaptabilidad se mueve en el rango de
(-27 – 36).
Cordillera central y occidental de Colombia, zonas cafeteras por
excelencia, decrecimientos drásticos en la adaptabilidad.
Impacto negativo de 500-2000 m.
Wet season wetter, dry season drier
Rainfall of driest month
Rainfall of wettest month
IMPLICATIONS
• Crop suitability CHANGES in both positive and negative ways
• Crop distributions shift, opportunities out there
• Key is managing transitions
• New abiotic stresses for crops -> continued demand for genetic resources
• Enabling agricultural diversification key toadapting
Conclusions
• Wild species at risk
• Crop suitability shifts
• Need for systems for managing transitions
• Capitalising on opportunities