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Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target. Dr. Andrew Waugh 31.10.11. Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003. Using the Waugh Model to assess local authority ‘capacity’ Numbers in temporary accommodation Time spent in temporary accommodation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target
Dr. Andrew Waugh
31.10.11
• Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003
• Using the Waugh Model to assess local authority ‘capacity’
– Numbers in temporary accommodation– Time spent in temporary accommodation– Number and proportion of social lets required
by homeless households
Methodology
Stock ModelHomelessness System Model+
Supply Demand
one for each local authority
LA Core
LA Demo
terminations
RTBs
homeless lets
other waiting list lets
decants to LA decants
to RSL
terminations
Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Tenancy Dynamics
LA Core
LA Demo
RTBs
new build
demolitions
Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Stock Dynamics
RSL
RTBs
new build
demolitions
RSL Stock Dynamics
RSL Tenancy Dynamics
RSL
RTBs
decants from LAothers lets
terminations
• Inputs (things we try to control)– The number of applications + assessments– Number of lets to homeless households
• Outputs (results)– Number of households in the system– Time spent in the system
Homelessness System Model
Temporary accommodation
applications
lets
Homelessness System Model
PN
Non PN
LA
Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)
RSLPRS
Other
LA
Other
Constraints• LA Homeless Lets <= All LA Lets – LA decants
• RSL Homeless Lets <= All RSL lets – decants
• All Homeless Lets <= x all homeless outcomes
• PRS Homeless Lets < = x all homeless outcomes
Homelessness System Model
Checking Forecasts against Actual Data
• Homelessness levels as at 2006/7
• All landlords maintain fixed % of lets
• New Build distributed as in 2003/4 -2005/6
Continue 2006/7 Position
Households in Temporary Accommodation
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ho
us
eh
old
s in
Te
mp
ora
ry A
cc
om
mo
da
tio
n
Historical Temporary Accommodation Projected Temporary Accommodation
Households in Temporary Accommodation
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual Waugh
Health Warning
Great forecast but underlying assumptions wrong!
Local Authority Lets (excl. transfer) 2006-7 to 2010-11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Ang
us
Arg
yll &
But
e
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Dun
dee
City
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Eas
t Lot
hian
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Edi
nbur
gh
Eile
an S
iar
Fal
kirk
Fife
Gla
sgow
City
Hig
hlan
d
Inve
rcly
de
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Ork
ney
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Ren
frew
shire
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
, The
She
tland
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Lot
hian
Waugh Actual
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Ang
us
Arg
yll &
But
e
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Dun
dee
City
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Eas
t Lot
hian
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Edi
nbur
gh, C
ity o
f
Eile
an S
iar
Fal
kirk
Fife
Gla
sgow
City
Hig
hlan
d
Inve
rcly
de
Mid
loth
ian
Mor
ay
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Ork
ney
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Ren
frew
shire
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
, The
She
tland
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Lot
hian
min max
Variability within the Local Authority Lettings Data (non-transfer lets)
Next steps
• Update the work to include latest information (APSR, HL1, HL2)
• Run simulations for 2012 and beyond
• Help inform policy options
• Work expected to form a key part of advice to Ministers
• Cross cutting themes– HB/Welfare Reform
• LA’s ability to pay for temporary accommodation• Increase in homelessness?
