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Modeling the low-carbon energy transition of territories:
q
A TIMES-SUDPACA model to assess the long-term decarbonization strategy of the south-east region of France
Carlos ANDRADE, Sandrine SELOSSE , Nadia MAÏZI
MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis
10 December 2019
The RÉGION SUD PROVENCE-ALPES-CÔTE D’AZUR
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SUD PACA region’s final energy consumption in 2016
• With 11 940 ktoe in 2016 the consumption of the SUD PACA region represents 8% of the French energy consumption
• Fossil fuels cover 66% of regional energy consumption • 50% of households in the region own at least one car • Heat production accounts for 50% of the energy consumed by the building sector
By sector Total
Source: ADMOSUD
50%
30%
16%
4%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Transport Builing Industry Agriculture
ktoe
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Final energy consumption in the SUD PACA Region in 2016 by department
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Final energy production by department of the SUD PACA Region in 2016
• The SUD PACA region produces around 15% of the energy it consumes • Renewable resources account for 70% of the final energy production • Zone 1 of Bouches-du-Rhône produces 50% of the regional production • Biomass is a significant energy source especially for heat production
Final energy production Departments’ production vs demand
ktoe
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
BDR1 BDR2 AM1 AM2 VAR1 VAR2 VAUC AHP HA
ktoe
Demand 2016 Production 2016
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2050 renewable energies technical potential
165 MW
• Solar is the most important source of renewable energy in the SUD PACA region representing around 40% of the total potential
• Renewable energy potentials can cover up to 55% of current energy demand 6
PJ
Prospective – Modeling - TIMES
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𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑃𝐸𝑃𝑃 𝐻𝐻 (𝑋,𝑡)
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑎𝑎𝐸𝑃𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝐸𝐸𝑃𝑎(𝑋,𝑡)
x ∈ 𝐴 ;𝐴 = 𝑍𝑃𝑎𝐸1 … .𝑍𝑃𝑎𝐸10 , 𝐸 = 2016
Paca
elec
HT
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑃𝐸𝑃𝑃 𝐵𝐻 (𝑋,𝑡)
Paca
elec
BT
Fran
cele
c
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐻𝐻𝑋
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐻𝑋
ElcH
ElcL
ow
𝐻𝐸𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑇𝑃𝐸𝑎𝐸𝐸𝑋
𝐺𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
Res
elec
Com
elec
…….
……
𝐺𝐻𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
𝐺𝑅𝑅𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
𝑅𝐻𝐵𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑋
Hea
ting
Hea
ting
O
ffice
s
Coo
king
……
TU_ELCH_PACA_X
TU_PACAHT_X_PACA
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐻𝐻𝑋
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐻𝑋
TU_PACABT_X_PACA
Depa
rtm
ents
𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 − 𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓 − 𝐃𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐃𝐃𝐓𝐓𝐓𝐓 𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑫𝑷𝑷
TU_ELCLOW_PACA_X 𝑃𝐴𝑅𝐴
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑎𝑎𝐸𝑃𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝐸𝐸𝑃𝑎
(𝐺𝐸𝑎,𝑅𝑃𝑎… ) (𝑋,𝑡+1)
TIMES SUD PACA : Electric system representation
Prim
airy
En
ergy
…
Scenarios
2. Carbon Neutral (CN) – SRADDET : Production objectifs proposed by the region SUD PACA
Production (MW) 2012 2020 2025 2030 2050
Electricity
Hydroelectricity0 3 073 3 756 3 929 3 956 4 100
Wind 45 557 1068 1597 3305
Photovoltaïque 596 6912 9779 11730 46852
Biomasse 0 141 172 172 172
Thermal
Heat recovery 1199 2 749 3 611 4 300 6546
Solar Thermal 20 509 781 998 2065
Biomass 80 352 514 650 1283
Biogas 14 71 162 267 570
Gasification 0 55 153 267 586
TOTAL 5 027 12 353 16 558 19 637 65 479
1. Reference : What is the most optimal solution according to potentials
Demand follows past trends
Possible trajectories : production in the reference vs carbon neutral scenario
• Fossil fuels represent 21% of the total electricity produced in the reference scenario while in the carbon neutral scenario there is no use of fossil fuels to produce electricity
• Biogas and wind energy represent each one 22% of the total energy produced in the reference scenario while solar energy represents 45% of the total production in the carbon neutral scenario
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Reference Scenario
Carbon Neutral Scenario PJ
Evolution of the final energy production by department
• Wind energy is developed at its maximum potential
• Bouches-du-Rhône represents still almost 50% of the total production
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Reference Scenario
Carbon Neutral Scenario
• Alpes-de-Haute-Provence represents almost 30% of the total production and is now the greatest producer in 2050
• Most of the new production comes from low consumption zones
PJ
PJ
HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var
VAUC: Vaucluse
AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes
BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône
Final energy demand in the building sector
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Reference Scenario
Carbon Neutral Scenario
Final energy demand in the residential sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
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PJ
• Energy demand in the residential sector in 2050 is 15 % higher than that of 2016 • Fossil fuel has been almost replaced principally by the use of electricity
AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var VAUC: Vaucluse
Final energy demand in the commercial sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
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• Energy demand in the commercial sector in 2050 has decreased in around 9% with respect to 2016 • Fossil fuels use in 2050 are still an important source of energy representing 14% of the total energy demand
AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var VAUC: Vaucluse
PJ
Final energy demand in the transport sector : Reference vs Carbon Neutral scenario
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• Oil products represent 53% of the final energy demand of the transport sector • Emissions are reduced in around 40% • The service demand that is the most decarbonised is the transport of individual passengers
PJ
Conclusion
• Past trends show that demand from some energy services is already on its way to decrease energy consumption, for example in the commercial sector, but the rate at which it is decreasing will not fulfill the objectives stablished by the region.
• Electricity is an important energy vector that can help the decarbonisation of the building sector, but for the transport sector it remains limited.
• With the current structure of the energy system of the regions SUD PACA, it is hard to capture the total potential of solar energy.
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THANK YOU FOR YOU ATTENTION
Carlos ANDRADE [email protected] PhD student MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis PhD research co-founded by ADEME and the Region SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur with the partnership of SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
MINES ParisTech PSL Research University Centre for Applied Mathematics Sophia Antipolis
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