Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Modeling the effects of climate change
forecasts on streamflow in the
Nooksack River basin
Susan Dickerson
Dr. Robert Mitchell
Photo: John Scurlock
Acknowledgements
Funding Provided By:
Whatcom County Flood Control Zone District
Alcoa Foundation
Assistance From:
Climate Change Technical Committee:
Matt Wiley & Austin Polebitski
Goal of Research
To predict the timing and magnitude of streamflow in the
Nooksack River basin under changing climate conditions
Photo: John Scurlock
Background: The Nooksack River
Streamflow at North Cedarville, WA
Water Year 2009 (Oct 2008 – Sept 2009)
Approach
Predicted
climate
data
Predictions
Future Snowpack
Future Streamflow
Future Peak Flows
Hydrology model
DHSVM
Spatial
characteristics
of Nooksack
River basin
Methods: DHSVM
Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model
Pascal Storck
Methods: DHSVM Calibration
Photo: NRCS
Photo: USGS
Forecast scale of 100s km local station
Methods: Forecast Downscaling
CIG, 2010
Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts
Each forecast incorporates local variability
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Abbotsford
Methods: Local Climate Change Forecasts
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature, 1950-1999
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Abbotsford
GISS_B1 2050 Forecast
Each forecast incorporates local variability AND future climate trends
January Mean Temperature
Temperature (C)
Fre
qu
en
cy
-10 -5 0 5
05
10
15
-50
5
January Mean Temperature
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Methods: Local Forecasts
median
Histogram Boxplot
Methods: Local Forecasts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2050
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2075
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Methods: Local Forecasts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2050
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2075
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Approach
Predicted
climate
data
Predictions
Future Snowpack
Future Streamflow
Future Peak Flows
Hydrology model
DHSVM
Spatial
characteristics
of Nooksack
River basin
Results: Snow Water Equivalent1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
23
45
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E(m
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
Results: Snow Water Equivalent
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - GISS_B1
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - Echam_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
2 4 6 8 10 12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Monthly Mean SWE at MF Snotel - IPSL_A2
Month
SW
E (
m)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
Results: Streamflow1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
20252050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
20002025
2050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)1950-19992000
2025
20502075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - ECHAM_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
20252050
2075
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
05000
10000
15000
20000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
20002025
2050
2075
Results: Streamflow2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - GISS_B1
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - Echam_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
2 4 6 8 10 12
02000
6000
10000
Monthly Median Streamflow - IPSL_A2
Month
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
Results: Peak Flow Events
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10
00
03
00
00
50
00
07
00
00
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999)
Water Year
Str
ea
mflo
w (
cfs
)
Ferndale-observed
Cedarville-simulated
Results: Peak Flow Events0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - GISS_B1
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - Echam_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
0e+00
4e+04
8e+04
Annual Peak Flows (WY 1951-1999) - IPSL_A2
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)
Ferndale-observedCedarville-simulated
2000
20252050
2075
Results: Peak Flow Events
IPSL_A2 2000
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2025
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2050
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
IPSL_A2 2075
Month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10
010
20
30
40
Simulated Peaks Above 30,000 cfs
Forecast Period
Fre
quency
2000 2025 2050 2075
02
04
06
08
01
00
GISS_B1
Echam_A2
IPSL_A2
Temperature or Precipitation?
• Predicted increases in
temperature and
precipitation
• More agreement on
temperature trends
• Previous regional
studies indicate that
temperature is the driving
factor in changes to
snowpack
(Hamlet et al., 2005,
Mote et al., 2005,
Mote et al., 2008)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10
01
02
03
0
Monthly Mean Temperature - 2075
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-10
01
02
03
0-1
00
10
20
30
-10
01
02
03
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Total Monthly Precipitation - 2075
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
00
10
02
00
30
04
00
50
06
00
01
00
20
03
00
40
05
00
60
0
Abbotsford
GISS_B1
ECHAM_A2
IPSL_A2
Conclusions
• Snowpack will decrease
• Timing of peak snowpack and of
the spring melting will move earlier in
the year
• Winter streamflow will increase,
summer streamflow will decrease
• Peak flow events will increase in
magnitude and frequency
• Extent of change depends on
temperature change
Photo: John Scurlock
DHSVM: Calibration
Initial
Simulation
After
Calibration
01
00
00
30
00
0
Nooksack River, WY 06-07
Date
Da
ily M
ea
n S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007
Cedarville - observed
Cedarville - simulated
01
00
00
30
00
0
Nooksack River, WY 06-07
Date
Da
ily M
ea
n S
tre
am
flo
w (
cfs
)
1Jan2006 2Jul2006 1Jan2007 2Jul2007
Cedarville - observed
Cedarville - simulated
IPCC 2001
Emissions Scenarios
Manning et al., 2010
Emissions Scenarios
Methods: Climate Change Forecasts
2040s Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
Mote and others, 2005
Three General
Circulation Models
(GCMs) :
1. IPSL_CM4_A2Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
(with A2)
2. Echam5_A2Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology (with A2)
3. GISS_ER_B1Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (with B1)
Results: Peak Flow Events
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
Ferndale Observed
Cedearville Simulated
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - 1950-1999
Streamflow (cfs)N
on-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
Ferndale Observed
Cedearville Simulated
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0e+00 4e+04 8e+04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Annual Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
Results: Spring Peak Flow Events
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - GISS_B1
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - Echam_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
0 10000 30000 50000 70000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Spring Peak Flows - IPSL_A2
Streamflow (cfs)
Non-E
xceedance P
robabili
ty
1950-1999
2000
2025
2050
2075
