Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F.
Aguilera Washington DC, 11 October 2011
Slide 2
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics OBJECTIVES To present projections of the future
energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM)
To discuss effects of energy policy To assess the availability of
natural gas
Slide 3
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Methodology
Slide 4
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Population and Consumption
Slide 5
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Reference) Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
Slide 6
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 1) Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review POLICIES:
Gas price setting Coal subsidies Restrict foreign investment
Slide 7
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 2) Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review POLICIES:
Environmental (e.g. taxes on fuel, emissions, subsidies for NGVs,)
Deregulation, privatization Consistency across borders Nuclear
restrictions
Slide 8
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific H/C Ratio Source: Aguilera and
Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
Slide 9
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Gas Consumption
Slide 10
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) USGS
(2000) divides Asia Pacific into 290 provinces Evaluated 77
provinces for known + undiscovered gas quantities
Slide 11
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) 1.
Northwest Shelf 2. Kutei Basin 3. Greater Sarawak Basin 4. Malay
Basin 6. Tarim Basin 5. Ganges-Br. Delta
Slide 12
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) Model Used to
estimate volumes natural gas in previously unassessed provinces
Unlike other models, VSD is not based on an assumed distribution
(e.g. Pareto or lognormal)
Slide 13
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied
Energy VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model
Slide 14
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Slide 15
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Slide 16
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Slide 17
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Slide 18
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy Cumulative Production
(264 TCFG) Source: BP (2011)
Slide 19
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Distribution of Gas Endowment by Country TOTAL:
2,240 TCFG Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Slide 20
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Gas Supply Cost Curve Source:
Aguilera and Ripple (2011b), WPC Source: BP (2011)
Slide 21
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics SHALE GAS Source: Aguilera et al. (2008), World
Petroleum Congress
Slide 22
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics SHALE GAS TECHNOLOGY: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Source: American Petroleum Institute (2010)
Slide 23
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics AUSTRALIAN GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID Source:
Geoscience Australia (2010)
Slide 24
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics AUSTRALIAN SHALE GAS BASINS Source: Geoscience
Australia (2010) Source: adapted from USGS (2000)
Slide 25
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: Ripple (2011),
Australian Ambassadors Speaker Series
Slide 26
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: International
Energy Agency (2009)
Slide 27
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW)
www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and
Minerals Economics CONCLUSIONS Natural gas in Asia Pacific more
abundant and economic than commonly assumed Appropriate energy
policy needed to access potential with minimal environmental impact
Gas will have positive impact on energy security, environment,
economic growth
Slide 28
Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific THANK YOU
Washington DC, 11 October 2011 [email protected]