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Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
J. Van Ooteghem, T. Tesch, S. Verbrugge, A. Ackaert, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester
eHealth2009, Istanbul
September 24th 2009
IBBT TranseCare project
Transparant ICT platforms for eCare
Project duration 2007 - 2010Project website http://projects.ibbt.be/TranseCare
2
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND MODEL MECHANISMS
Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
3
Competing (e)Care model
4
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Tier 3
Characteristics Elderly requiring near constant (medical) attention
Competing care providers Retirement Homes (RH)
Multi-residence housing facilities intended for highest-level dependency elderly
WaitingList (WL) High-dependent elderly not able to receive adequate
care at the time of need, due to capacity limitations
5
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Tier 2
Characteristics Elderly requiring extended external attention Staying in their private homes is therefore impossible
Competing care providers Service Flats (SF)
Assisted living facilities for elderly already needing a certain level of continued care
Retirement Homes (RH) WaitingList (WL)
6
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Tier 1
Characteristics Elderly requiring (some) external attention and care They can stay in their own homes
Competing care providers HomeCare (HC)
On-demand supportive care provided in the patient's home by professionals
HomeCare augmented with eCarePlatform (HC+eCP) Professional homecare facilitated by an eCarePlatform
7
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Tier 0
Characteristics Elderly still living in their private homes No need for (professional) homecare
Competing care providers SelfSustained (SS)
Independent living eCarePlatform (eCP)
Own initiative for subscribing to an eCarePlatform
8
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Model mechanisms
Vertically Inflow (Tier 0) Outflow (Death) Churn between services
Horizontally Increased level of care Tier 0 Tier 1
9
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
SIMULATION RESULTSModeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
10
Case study
Flemish situation 10 year period: 2010 – 2020
Data Obtained from public sources Model refined and assessed by professionals
Goal To indicate the trend in how competition between care
providers in the sector will evolve
11
Capacity
12
85%
90%
95%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tota
l cap
acity
Time (Y)
Accepted capacity Waitinglist (WL)
Capacity is limited for service flats and retirement homes Uptake of eCarePlatform services has a positive effect on the
length of the waiting list
Market shares of competing care providers
13
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tota
l cap
acity
Time (Y)
RH WL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tota
l cap
acity
Time (Y)
SF RH WL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tota
l cap
acity
Time (Y)
HC HC+eCP SF RH
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tota
l cap
acity
Time (Y)
SS eCP
Tier 3
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 0
CHURN
INF
LO
W
CHURN
Dea
th
HomeCare
HomeCare & eCarePlatform
ServiceFlats
RetirementHomes
Dea
th
ServiceFlats
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
Dea
th
Dea
th
Retirement Homes
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
TIER 0 TIER 1 TIER 2 TIER 3
SelfSustained
eCarePlatform
WaitingListWaitingList
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY
CONCLUSIONSFUTURE WORK
Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers
14
Conclusions
Conceptual framework Allows forecasting evolution of market shares of
competing care providers Market mechanisms
Based on the dependency level of the elderly Competition within tiers (churn)
Capacity Tier 3 capacity always needs to be guaranteed Waiting list problem situated in Tier 2
Market shares eCarePlatform will gain market share as soon as
efficiency and added value has been proved.
15
Future work
Techno-economic analysis of eCare platform business cases
Input from the presented model eCare value network models Quantitative cost/benefit model Multi-actor analysis
16
CTTE 2010
17
Ghent, BelgiumJune 16-18, 2010
Conference of Telecommunication, Media and Internet Techno-Economics
Call for papers:•user and service adoption•pricing strategies for new services•value network analysis and competition opportunities•regulatory impacts on industry structure and competition•OPEX and CAPEX models for network and service providers•direct and indirect revenue modeling•comparison of novel versus classic investment decision techniques•sensitivity studies, risk analysis and real options •multi-actor analysis•game theoretic analysis http://www.ctte-conference.org/
Thank you for your attention
Questions ?
Jan Van [email protected]/teINTEC Broadband Communication Networks (IBCN)Department of Information Technology (INTEC)Ghent University - IBBT